Decadal LIM Forecasts : 1-9 year leads

(Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSL and University of Colorado/CIRES Forecast)

NEWDecadal LIM VERSION 1.0: Forecast indices now available.
Forecast page is out of beta since paper is published, but some parts of the site may still be incomplete.

Forecast indices

Forecast indices for the PDO, AMO, and global temperature indices. The PDO is defined as the projection of SST on the leading EOF of monthly detrended North Pacific SST anomalies between 20N and 60N (Mantua et al. 1997). The AMO index is the area-weighted North Atlantic mean SST, between 0N and 60N, minus the global mean SST (Trenberth and Shea 2006). Global mean temperature is area-weighted average temperature.

Forecasts are indicated by the dashed lines. The past 15 years are also plotted with solid lines.

Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NOAA/PSL and CIRES/CDC are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.

Please note: If you acquire Decadal LIM tropical Forecasts from NOAA/PSL and CIRES/CDC, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. This may be done by including a citation in any documents or publications using these data, for example: "Decadal LIM tropical Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory and University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO from their website at, based upon the model described in Newman, M. 2013: An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00590.1, in press." We would also greatly appreciate receiving a copy of the relevant publication. This will help NOAA/PSL and CIRES to justify keeping the Decadal LIM Forecast data freely available online in the future. Thank you!