Lesley L. Smith – US Extreme Precipitation and Temperature
All plots preliminary.
NCEI Extreme Temperature
TMAX
Below analyses done using monthly maximum Tmax per grid point
Rank of monthly (1-day) max Tmax per grid point -- showing sample years
ranks computed with all available data (Jan 1951 - Dec 2021)
Corresponding analysis of minimums of Tmax here.
Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of annual max Tmax?
Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of monthly max Tmax?
Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 95th-percentile of Tmax
TMIN
Below analyses done using monthly maximum Tmin per grid point
Rank of monthly (1-day) max Tmin per grid point -- showing sample years
ranks computed with all available data (Jan 1951 - Dec 2021)
Corresponding analysis of minimums of Tmin here.
Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of annual max Tmin?
Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of monthly max Tmin?
Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 95th-percentile of Tmin
(95th-percentile wrt greatest minimum_temperature)
NCEI Extreme Precipitation
PRECIP
New! NCEI annual RX1day Precipitation Trend / Cutpoint:
Below analyses done using monthly maximum precip per grid point
Rank of monthly (1-day) max precip per grid point -- showing sample years
ranks computed with all available data (Jan 1951 - Nov 2021)
Movies of all years links below:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Rank of monthly (3-day) max precip per grid point -- showing sample years: HERE.
Rank of monthly (5-day) max precip per grid point -- showing sample years: HERE.
Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of monthly max precip?
Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 95th-percentile of rain days
Exceedances of the above cutpoint:
Below analyses done using annual maximum precip per grid point
Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of annual max precip?
Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 1-in-5-year event
Exceedances of the above cutpoint:
5km NCEI data from J.Eischeid
Below analyses done in 2021 and earlier
CAM6 Extreme Precipitation 'Factual' and 'Counterfactual'
GOGA
TOGA
CAM6 Extreme Precipitation Climatologies 1979-2018
MRI sea-level pressure
CAM5
GHCN
1o x 1o grids:
OBSERVATIONS gridded station data from J. Eischeid
5o x 5o grids:
OBSERVATIONS
CPC map-mean: 3.73406 mm/day
MODELS averaging over runs
CAM5 map-mean: 0.888749 mm/day
ECHAM map-mean: 3.02416 mm/day
MRI map-mean: 1.32378 mm/day
Correlations and Congruences of CPC & run-averaged models, all on 5o x 5o grid
5ox5o | Correlation | Congruence |
CPC & CAM5 | 0.4451835 | 0.6640015 |
CPC & ECHAM | 0.6281786 | 0.7727547 |
CPC & MRI | 0.3056647 | 0.5177715 |
Pattern Congruences of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day 5o x 5o grid
Pattern Correlations of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day 5o x 5o grid
Pattern Congruences of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day
Pattern Correlations of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day
Data that went into (maximum) pattern correlations/congruences
Run Averages
Statistics of Observational and Model Precipitation (rain > 1 mm ) at select locations
mm/day, means and standard deviations computed over model runs
San Francisco 1979-2018
San Francisco ('79-'18) | 90%mean | 90%std | 95%mean | 95%std | 99%mean | 99%std | 99.9%mean | 99.9%std |
CPC | 24.019 | 0.000 | 33.035 | 0.000 | 50.483 | 0.000 | 92.538 | 0.000 |
CAM | 24.053 | 1.028 | 32.901 | 1.473 | 54.352 | 2.897 | 85.666 | 10.126 |
ECHAM | 29.306 | 1.106 | 39.681 | 1.797 | 64.417 | 3.157 | 95.757 | 9.269 |
MRI | 30.592 | 1.245 | 41.975 | 1.980 | 71.156 | 3.831 | 110.992 | 10.964 |
Boulder Colorado 1979-2018
Boulder ('79-'18) | 90%mean | 90%std | 95%mean | 95%std | 99%mean | 99%std | 99.9%mean | 99.9%std |
CPC | 9.624 | 0.000 | 13.573 | 0.000 | 27.159 | 0.000 | 47.944 | 0.000 |
CAM | 11.247 | 0.233 | 15.038 | 0.384 | 26.929 | 1.292 | 50.691 | 5.530 |
ECHAM | 14.460 | 0.444 | 20.368 | 0.719 | 35.488 | 1.761 | 56.091 | 4.797 |
MRI | 13.607 | 0.329 | 19.176 | 0.479 | 34.451 | 1.322 | 60.165 | 7.320 |
New Orleans 1979-2018
New Orleans ('79-'18) | 90%mean | 90%std | 95%mean | 95%std | 99%mean | 99%std | 99.9%mean | 99.9%std |
CPC | 27.489 | 0.000 | 40.015 | 0.000 | 77.311 | 0.000 | 162.380 | 0.000 |
CAM | 14.502 | 0.417 | 22.212 | 0.725 | 49.633 | 2.131 | 117.460 | 20.635 |
ECHAM | 22.240 | 0.775 | 33.404 | 1.278 | 66.458 | 3.873 | 120.511 | 16.876 |
MRI | 22.250 | 0.518 | 31.599 | 0.871 | 57.902 | 2.878 | 105.188 | 11.635 |
Boston 1979-2018
Boston ('79-'18) | 90%mean | 90%std | 95%mean | 95%std | 99%mean | 99%std | 99.9%mean | 99.9%std |
CPC | 22.817 | 0.000 | 31.003 | 0.000 | 55.734 | 0.000 | 86.650 | 0.000 |
CAM | 23.881 | 0.721 | 33.940 | 1.112 | 57.469 | 2.339 | 90.574 | 8.048 |
ECHAM | 24.990 | 0.636 | 34.566 | 1.045 | 58.299 | 2.476 | 94.139 | 7.889 |
MRI | 23.395 | 0.503 | 32.836 | 0.752 | 55.712 | 1.790 | 96.543 | 9.187 |
Validation of Model Precipitation (rain > 1 mm days) at select locations Red line is CPC Precipitation
CAM 1979-2018
ECHAM 1979-2018
MRI 1971-2010
CAM 1999-2018
ECHAM 1999-2018
MRI 1991-2010
Precipitation Components here
ANNUAL CASES
All Days Precipitation
Climatologies 1999-2018 ECHAM5 0.75ox0.75o
CAM5 0.5ox0.5o 'Trend' Analysis
Total Precipitation Ratios
Climatologies 1999-2018 CAM5 0.5ox0.5o
'Observational' RX1day precip compared to average precipitable water
J.Eischeid
Trend Analysis Wettest Day of Year Factual versus Counterfactual 1999-2018 18 River Basins
One Model (ECHAM5) with Precipitable Water
Three Models
J. Eischeid
J. Eischeid
J. Eischeid
Two Models
MRI ~0.5o x 0.5o 'Trend' Analysis
CAM 0.5o x 0.5o 'Trend' Analysis
CAM 1o x 1o 'Trend' Analysis
ECHAM 'Trend' Analysis
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CPC
1y ('48-'18): Boston: 65.7085 NOLA: 103.359 Denver: 34.0127
1y ('81-'10): Boston: 71.1624 NOLA: 103.687 Denver: 32.0854
Model Extreme Precipitation Climatologies
MRI
1y (1981-2010): Boston: 69.1557 NOLA: 78.5841 Denver: 41.8533
1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 69.8797 NOLA: 79.5665 Denver: 41.4639 1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 68.4318 NOLA: 77.6018 Denver: 42.2427
ECHAM
1y ('81-'10): Boston: 69.5584 NOLA: 76.1495 Denver: 38.1889
1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 70.8956 NOLA: 79.4969 Denver: 38.5264 1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 68.2213 NOLA: 72.8021 Denver: 37.8514
CAM
1-degree
1y ('81-'10): Boston: 60.9561 NOLA: 55.2121 Denver: 26.8272
1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 61.5403 NOLA: 55.2466 Denver: 26.7531 1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 60.3719 NOLA: 55.1776 Denver: 26.9012
0.5-degree
1y ('81-'10): Boston: 67.7037 NOLA: 80.1592 Denver: 37.3805
1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 67.9537 NOLA: 81.0778 Denver: 37.6268 1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 67.4538 NOLA: 79.2407 Denver: 37.1342
Below average of 20 annual maximas for two periods (diffs give 'trends')
Trend Analysis Wettest Day of Year Factual versus Counterfactual 1999-2018 9 Climate Superdivisions
Below red line is CPC 'trend' for region.
Below red line is CPC 'trend' for region.
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Climate Superdivision Map (right) shows precipitation corresponding to maximum frequency in pdfs above
ECHAM 1999-2018
below left ECHAM sample map, below right average
movie of all maps here
CAM5 1999-2018 0.5o x 0.5o
average over all runs
below left sample map, below right average
movie of all maps here
CAM5 1999-2018 1o x 1o
below left sample map, below right average
movie of all maps here
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CPC Daily Precipitation
Climate Superdivision Map (right) shows precipitation corresponding to superdivision area average of precip on left
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NCEI Climate Superdivisions: