Lesley L. Smith – US Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

All plots preliminary.        

NCEI Extreme Temperature

TMAX

Below analyses done using monthly maximum Tmax per grid point

Rank of monthly (1-day) max Tmax per grid point -- showing sample years

ranks computed with all available data (Jan 1951 - Dec 2021)

Corresponding analysis of minimums of Tmax here.

 

Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of annual max Tmax?

Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of monthly max Tmax?

Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 95th-percentile of Tmax

TMIN

Below analyses done using monthly maximum Tmin per grid point

Rank of monthly (1-day) max Tmin per grid point -- showing sample years

ranks computed with all available data (Jan 1951 - Dec 2021)

Corresponding analysis of minimums of Tmin here.

 

Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of annual max Tmin?

Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of monthly max Tmin?

Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 95th-percentile of Tmin
(95th-percentile wrt greatest minimum_temperature)


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NCEI Extreme Precipitation

PRECIP

New! NCEI annual RX1day Precipitation Trend / Cutpoint:


Below analyses done using monthly maximum precip per grid point

Rank of monthly (1-day) max precip per grid point -- showing sample years

ranks computed with all available data (Jan 1951 - Nov 2021)

Movies of all years links below:
Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec  

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Rank of monthly (3-day) max precip per grid point -- showing sample years: HERE.

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Rank of monthly (5-day) max precip per grid point -- showing sample years: HERE.

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Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of monthly max precip?

Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 95th-percentile of rain days

Exceedances of the above cutpoint:

 

Below analyses done using annual maximum precip per grid point

Re. is there a trend in the magnitude of annual max precip?

Re. frequency & obtaining a 'cutpoint': 1-in-5-year event

Exceedances of the above cutpoint:

5km NCEI data from J.Eischeid

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CAM6 Extreme Precipitation 'Factual' and 'Counterfactual'

GOGA

TOGA

CAM6 Extreme Precipitation Climatologies 1979-2018

MRI sea-level pressure

CAM5

GHCN

1o x 1o grids:

OBSERVATIONS gridded station data from J. Eischeid

 

 

 

5o x 5o grids:

OBSERVATIONS

       

CPC map-mean: 3.73406 mm/day

 

MODELS averaging over runs

       

CAM5 map-mean: 0.888749 mm/day

 

       

ECHAM map-mean: 3.02416 mm/day

 

       

MRI map-mean: 1.32378 mm/day

 

Correlations and Congruences of CPC & run-averaged models, all on 5o x 5o grid

5ox5oCorrelationCongruence
CPC & CAM50.4451835 0.6640015
CPC & ECHAM0.62817860.7727547
CPC & MRI0.30566470.5177715

 

 

Pattern Congruences of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day 5o x 5o grid

Pattern Correlations of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day 5o x 5o grid

Pattern Congruences of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day

Pattern Correlations of Model & CPC Trends in RX1day

Data that went into (maximum) pattern correlations/congruences

   

   

   

   

Run Averages

Statistics of Observational and Model Precipitation (rain > 1 mm ) at select locations

mm/day, means and standard deviations computed over model runs

San Francisco 1979-2018

San Francisco ('79-'18) 90%mean 90%std 95%mean 95%std 99%mean 99%std 99.9%mean 99.9%std
CPC 24.019 0.000 33.035 0.000 50.483 0.000 92.538 0.000
CAM 24.053 1.028 32.901 1.473 54.352 2.897 85.666 10.126
ECHAM 29.306 1.106 39.681 1.797 64.417 3.157 95.757 9.269
MRI 30.592 1.245 41.975 1.980 71.156 3.831 110.992 10.964

 

Boulder Colorado 1979-2018

Boulder ('79-'18) 90%mean 90%std 95%mean 95%std 99%mean 99%std 99.9%mean 99.9%std
CPC 9.624 0.000 13.573 0.000 27.159 0.000 47.944 0.000
CAM 11.247 0.233 15.038 0.384 26.929 1.292 50.691 5.530
ECHAM 14.460 0.444 20.368 0.719 35.488 1.761 56.091 4.797
MRI 13.607 0.329 19.176 0.479 34.451 1.322 60.165 7.320

 

New Orleans 1979-2018

New Orleans ('79-'18) 90%mean 90%std 95%mean 95%std 99%mean 99%std 99.9%mean 99.9%std
CPC 27.489 0.000 40.015 0.000 77.311 0.000 162.380 0.000
CAM 14.502 0.417 22.212 0.725 49.633 2.131 117.460 20.635
ECHAM 22.240 0.775 33.404 1.278 66.458 3.873 120.511 16.876
MRI 22.250 0.518 31.599 0.871 57.902 2.878 105.188 11.635

 

Boston 1979-2018

Boston ('79-'18) 90%mean 90%std 95%mean 95%std 99%mean 99%std 99.9%mean 99.9%std
CPC 22.817 0.000 31.003 0.000 55.734 0.000 86.650 0.000
CAM 23.881 0.721 33.940 1.112 57.469 2.339 90.574 8.048
ECHAM 24.990 0.636 34.566 1.045 58.299 2.476 94.139 7.889
MRI 23.395 0.503 32.836 0.752 55.712 1.790 96.543 9.187

 

Validation of Model Precipitation (rain > 1 mm days) at select locations       Red line is CPC Precipitation

CAM 1979-2018

ECHAM 1979-2018

MRI 1971-2010

CAM 1999-2018

ECHAM 1999-2018

MRI 1991-2010

Precipitation Components here

ANNUAL CASES

All Days Precipitation

Climatologies 1999-2018 ECHAM5 0.75ox0.75o

CAM5 0.5ox0.5o 'Trend' Analysis

Total Precipitation Ratios

Climatologies 1999-2018 CAM5 0.5ox0.5o

'Observational' RX1day precip compared to average precipitable water

J.Eischeid

Trend Analysis Wettest Day of Year Factual versus Counterfactual 1999-2018 18 River Basins

One Model (ECHAM5) with Precipitable Water

Three Models


J. Eischeid


J. Eischeid


J. Eischeid

Two Models

MRI ~0.5o x 0.5o 'Trend' Analysis

CAM 0.5o x 0.5o 'Trend' Analysis

CAM 1o x 1o 'Trend' Analysis

ECHAM 'Trend' Analysis

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CPC

1y ('48-'18): Boston: 65.7085 NOLA: 103.359 Denver: 34.0127

1y ('81-'10): Boston: 71.1624 NOLA: 103.687 Denver: 32.0854

Model Extreme Precipitation Climatologies

MRI

1y (1981-2010): Boston: 69.1557 NOLA: 78.5841 Denver: 41.8533

 

1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 69.8797 NOLA: 79.5665 Denver: 41.4639   1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 68.4318 NOLA: 77.6018 Denver: 42.2427

ECHAM

1y ('81-'10): Boston: 69.5584 NOLA: 76.1495 Denver: 38.1889

 

1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 70.8956 NOLA: 79.4969 Denver: 38.5264   1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 68.2213 NOLA: 72.8021 Denver: 37.8514

CAM

1-degree

1y ('81-'10): Boston: 60.9561 NOLA: 55.2121 Denver: 26.8272

1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 61.5403 NOLA: 55.2466 Denver: 26.7531   1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 60.3719 NOLA: 55.1776 Denver: 26.9012

0.5-degree

1y ('81-'10): Boston: 67.7037 NOLA: 80.1592 Denver: 37.3805

 

1-yr Factual ('81-'10): Boston: 67.9537 NOLA: 81.0778 Denver: 37.6268   1-yr CounterFactual ('81-'10): Boston: 67.4538 NOLA: 79.2407 Denver: 37.1342

Below average of 20 annual maximas for two periods (diffs give 'trends')

Trend Analysis Wettest Day of Year Factual versus Counterfactual 1999-2018 9 Climate Superdivisions

Below red line is CPC 'trend' for region.

Below red line is CPC 'trend' for region.

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Climate Superdivision Map (right) shows precipitation corresponding to maximum frequency in pdfs above

ECHAM 1999-2018
below left ECHAM sample map, below right average
     
movie of all maps here

CAM5 1999-2018 0.5o x 0.5o
average over all runs

below left sample map, below right average
     
movie of all maps here

CAM5 1999-2018 1o x 1o
below left sample map, below right average
     
movie of all maps here
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CPC Daily Precipitation

Climate Superdivision Map (right) shows precipitation corresponding to superdivision area average of precip on left

     

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NCEI Climate Superdivisions: