Lesley L. Smith – US Extreme Precipitation

All plots preliminary.

Right click to see bigger versions.

New Most recent plots first.

Back to newer plots here.

All Station Data plots moved here
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cut-Point Analyses here.

Time Series Analyses here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1-IN-5-YEAR CASES BELOW

1-IN-10-YEAR CASES BELOW

Revised ECHAM Multi-year Analysis

* 1-in-5-year analysis for 2009-2018, annual analysis for 2017-2018

ECHAM Multi-year Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Climatology & Trend (from slope of best-fit line) heaviest precip 1948-2018

CPC

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trends (from slope of best-fit line) in heaviest precipitation

1948-2018 APA CAM5
Sample plots

Trend maps for all runs here.
Average over all runs & wettest day climo

1901-2018 APA CAM5
Sample plots

Trend maps for all runs here.
Average over all runs & wettest day climo

1948-2018 NCAR Large Ensemble (LENS)
Sample plots

Trend maps for all runs here.
Average over all runs & wettest day climo

1920-2018 NCAR Large Ensemble (LENS)
Sample plots

Trend maps for all runs here.
Average over all runs & wettest day climo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For reference, some annual mean precipitations:

CPC Daily Precipitation High Resolution (0.25^ox0.25^o)

CPC 95th-percentiles
1948-2018 95th-percentiles

Large Ensemble (LENS) from NCAR

Difference of LENS 2040-2080 and LENS 1920-1960 (1^o x 1^o lat-lon grid) Cut-points:

'Cut-points' from 40 LENS (1^o x 1^o lat-lon grid) runs 2040-2080

'Cut-points' from 40 LENS (1^o x 1^o lat-lon grid) runs 1920-1960

-----------------------------------

CAM5

CAM5 Factual Sample runs (1^o x 1^o lat-lon grid) region9 with mean (heavy black line)

1948-2018 US CPC Daily precip

Re. 1994-2018 & 1948-1972 95th-percentiles Cut-points:

in %

in mm/day

90th-percentiles
Difference of 1994-2018 -- 1948-1972 90th-percentiles Cut-points:
In % (as compared to 1948 era)

In mm/day

CPC Daily Precip 1994-2018 90th-percentiles Cut-points:

CPC Daily Precip 1948-1972 90th-percentiles Cut-points:

CPC
box/whisker plots calculated for 15-year periods
hi decile, hi quartile, median, lo quartile, lo decile, with plus-sign indicating mean

1948-2018 comparison US CPC Daily precip (left) and US CAM5 run01 Daily precip (right)

CAM5 Daily Precipitation 1901-2016 40-run ensemble

~1 degree grid

one run per row, 10 regions per row

right click to see bigger images

GPCC Precipitation 1901-2016

~1 degree grid

Climatologies

6 seasons plus annual case per row

right click to see bigger images

CAM5 Precipitation 1901-2016 40-run ensemble

~1 degree grid

Climatologies

one run per row

6 seasons plus annual case per row

right click to see bigger images

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Climate Super-Divisions

1-in-20-year event exceedances precipitation

In all CAM5 cases below, each run had its own 'cut point'

Precip Time Series Trends

PDFs Annual and 6 2-month seasons

asterisks indicate observational station data

above trends computed from following time series

CAM5 Precip Time Series

Gray envelope indicates 10% to 90% ranges. Blue line is mean of 40 ensemble members. Green line is trend line (of mean).

Annual 1-in-20-year events 40 runs

Seasonal 1-in-20-year events 40 runs

2-month: Jan Feb

2-month: Mar Apr

2-month: May Jun

2-month: Jul Aug

2-month: Sep Oct

2-month: Nov Dec

'Spaghetti' plots -- CAM5 Precip Time Series

Annual 1-in-20-year events 40 runs

Seasonal 1-in-20-year events 40 runs

2-month: Jan Feb

2-month: Mar Apr

2-month: May Jun

2-month: Jul Aug

2-month: Sep Oct

2-month: Nov Dec

maps of 1-in-20-year events here

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1-IN-5-YEAR CASES

Trend Analysis 1-in-5-year Day of Year Factual versus Counterfactual 1979-2018 yields 8 cases

18 River Basins

Three Models

J. Eischeid

Observations Extreme Precipitation Climatologies

CPC

Boston: 95.3154 NOLA: 164.241 Denver: 47.8143

---------------------------

Model Extreme Precipitation Climatologies 1981-2010

CAM

5y: Boston: 95.1109 NOLA: 142.336 Denver: 57.4552

5-yr Factual: Boston: 96.4559 NOLA: 145.394 Denver: 58.1137 nbsp; 5-yr CounterFactual: Boston: 93.7658 NOLA: 139.279 Denver: 56.7967

5y: Boston: 81.5097 NOLA: 88.825 Denver: 37.9505

5-yr Factual: Boston: 82.3597 NOLA: 89.5845 Denver: 37.7499 5-yr CounterFactual: Boston: 80.6597 NOLA: 88.0655 Denver: 38.1511

ECHAM

5y: Boston: 97.459 NOLA: 119.871 Denver: 54.4421

5-yr Factual: Boston: 98.8441 NOLA: 124.95 Denver: 54.7565 5-yr CounterFactual: Boston: 96.074 NOLA: 114.793 Denver: 54.1278

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trend Analysis Wettest Day of Year Factual versus Counterfactual 1999-2018 9 Climate Superdivisions

Comparison of Factual and Counterfactual 0.5^ox0.5^o & 1^ox1^o 1999-2018 yields 4 1-in-5-year cases

Below red line is CPC 'trend' for region.

Two Models

Below red line is CPC 'trend' for region.

Three Models

Climate Superdivision Map (right) shows precipitation corresponding to maximum frequency in pdfs above
below left ECHAM sample map, below right average

movie of all maps here
below left CAM5 0.5^o sample map w right average

movie of all maps here

below left CAM5 1.0^o sample map, below right average

movie of all maps here

------

CPC Data

Climate Superdivision Map (right) shows precipitation corresponding to superdivision area average of precip on left

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------