19448 Article The multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR) measures direct and diffuse irradiances in the visible and near-infrared spectral range. In addition to characteristics of atmospheric aerosols, MFRSR data also allow retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) column amounts, which are determined from the direct normal irradiances in the 940-nm spectral channel. The HITRAN 2004 spectral database was used in our retrievals to model the water vapor absorption. We present a detailed error analysis describing the influence of uncertainties in instrument calibration and spectral response, as well as those in available spectral databases, on the retrieval results. The results of our PWV retrievals from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site operated by the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program were compared with correlative standard measurements by microwave radiometers (MWRs) and a global positioning system (GPS) water vapor sensor, as well as with retrievals from other solar radiometers (AERONET's CIMEL, AATS-6). Some of these data are routinely available at the SGP's Central Facility; however, we also used measurements from a wider array of instrumentations deployed at this site during the water vapor intensive observation period (WVIOP2000) in September–October 2000. The WVIOP data show better agreement between different solar radiometers or between different microwave radiometers (both groups showing relative biases within 4%) than between these two groups of instruments, with MWR values being consistently higher (up to 14%) than those from solar instruments (especially in the large PWV column amount range). We also demonstrate the feasibility of using MFRSR network data for creation of 2D data sets comparable with that of the MODIS satellite water vapor product. 2009-1 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D02306 0 10.1029/2008JD010543 The multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR) measures direct and diffuse irradiances in the visible and near-infrared spectral range. In addition to characteristics of atmospheric aerosols, MFRSR data also allow retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) column amounts, which are determined from the direct normal irradiances in the 940-nm spectral channel. The HITRAN 2004 spectral database was used in our retrievals to model the water vapor absorption. We present a detailed error analysis describing the influence of uncertainties in instrument calibration and spectral response, as well as those in available spectral databases, on the retrieval results. The results of our PWV retrievals from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site operated by the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program were compared with correlative standard measurements by microwave radiometers (MWRs) and a global positioning system (GPS) water vapor sensor, as well as with retrievals from other solar radiometers (AERONET's CIMEL, AATS-6). Some of these data are routinely available at the SGP's Central Facility; however, we also used measurements from a wider array of instrumentations deployed at this site during the water vapor intensive observation period (WVIOP2000) in September–October 2000. The WVIOP data show better agreement between different solar radiometers or between different microwave radiometers (both groups showing relative biases within 4%) than between these two groups of instruments, with MWR values being consistently higher (up to 14%) than those from solar instruments (especially in the large PWV column amount range). We also demonstrate the feasibility of using MFRSR network data for creation of 2D data sets comparable with that of the MODIS satellite water vapor product. Alexandrov M. D. Schmid B. Turner D. D. Cairns B. Oinas V. Lacis A. A. Gutman S. I. Westwater E. R. Smirnov A. 19449 Article N/A 2009-1 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L01705 0 10.1029/2008GL034621 N/A Barsugli J. J. 19450 Article N/A 2009-9 Water Resour. Res. 45 W09601 0 10.1029/2008WR007627 N/A Barsugli J. J. Nowak K. Rajagopalan B. Prarie J. R. Harding B. 19451 Article Measurements of turbulent fluxes, clouds, radiation, and profiles of mean meteorological parameters, obtained over an ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001, are used to evaluate the performance of U.K. Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) in the lower atmosphere during late summer. Both the latest version of the MetUM and the version operational in 2001 are used in the comparison to gain an insight as to whether updates to the model have improved its performance over the Arctic region. As with previous model evaluations over the Arctic, the pressure, humidity, and wind fields are satisfactorily represented in all three models. The older version of the MetUM underpredicts the occurrence of low-level Arctic clouds, and the liquid and ice cloud water partitioning is inaccurate compared to observations made during SHEBA. In the newer version, simulated ice and liquid water paths are improved, but the occurrence of low-level clouds are overpredicted. Both versions overestimate the amount of radiative heat absorbed at the surface, leading to a significant feedback of errors involving the surface albedo, which causes a large positive bias the surface temperature. Cloud forcing in COAMPS produces similar biases in the downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes to those produced by UM(G25). The surface albedo parameterization is, however, more realistic, and thus, the total heat flux and surface temperature are more accurate for the majority of the observation period. 2009-7 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D13104 0 10.1029/2008JD010790 Measurements of turbulent fluxes, clouds, radiation, and profiles of mean meteorological parameters, obtained over an ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001, are used to evaluate the performance of U.K. Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) in the lower atmosphere during late summer. Both the latest version of the MetUM and the version operational in 2001 are used in the comparison to gain an insight as to whether updates to the model have improved its performance over the Arctic region. As with previous model evaluations over the Arctic, the pressure, humidity, and wind fields are satisfactorily represented in all three models. The older version of the MetUM underpredicts the occurrence of low-level Arctic clouds, and the liquid and ice cloud water partitioning is inaccurate compared to observations made during SHEBA. In the newer version, simulated ice and liquid water paths are improved, but the occurrence of low-level clouds are overpredicted. Both versions overestimate the amount of radiative heat absorbed at the surface, leading to a significant feedback of errors involving the surface albedo, which causes a large positive bias the surface temperature. Cloud forcing in COAMPS produces similar biases in the downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes to those produced by UM(G25). The surface albedo parameterization is, however, more realistic, and thus, the total heat flux and surface temperature are more accurate for the majority of the observation period. Birch C. E. Brooks I. M. Tjernström M. Milton S. F. Earnshaw P. Söderberg S. Persson P. O. G. 19452 Article The height of the freezing level in the tropical atmosphere (the free air 0°C isotherm) has increased across most of the region, particularly in the outer Tropics. In the tropical Andes, south of the Equator, high elevation surface temperatures and upper air data show a similar trend in temperature, of ∼0.1°C/decade over the last 50 years. Meteorological observations at 5680 m on the summit of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, the largest ice mass in the Tropics, indicate that daily maximum temperatures often exceed 0°C from October–May, and rise well above freezing for much of the year around the ice cap margin at 5200 m. This is consistent with observations of a rise in the percolation facies (an indicator of surface melting) in recent decades, and other observations of marginal recession, showing that the ice cap is rapidly losing mass. Similar conditions are likely to be affecting other high elevation ice caps and glaciers in Ecuador, Perú and Bolivia, with important implications for water supplies in the region. Over the Tropics as a whole, freezing level height (FLH) is closely related to mean SSTs, with inter-annual variations in FLH controlled by the phase of ENSO variability. More extensive monitoring of climatic conditions at high elevations in the mountains of the Tropics is urgently needed. 2009-9 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L17701 0 10.1029/2009GL037712 The height of the freezing level in the tropical atmosphere (the free air 0°C isotherm) has increased across most of the region, particularly in the outer Tropics. In the tropical Andes, south of the Equator, high elevation surface temperatures and upper air data show a similar trend in temperature, of ∼0.1°C/decade over the last 50 years. Meteorological observations at 5680 m on the summit of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, the largest ice mass in the Tropics, indicate that daily maximum temperatures often exceed 0°C from October–May, and rise well above freezing for much of the year around the ice cap margin at 5200 m. This is consistent with observations of a rise in the percolation facies (an indicator of surface melting) in recent decades, and other observations of marginal recession, showing that the ice cap is rapidly losing mass. Similar conditions are likely to be affecting other high elevation ice caps and glaciers in Ecuador, Perú and Bolivia, with important implications for water supplies in the region. Over the Tropics as a whole, freezing level height (FLH) is closely related to mean SSTs, with inter-annual variations in FLH controlled by the phase of ENSO variability. More extensive monitoring of climatic conditions at high elevations in the mountains of the Tropics is urgently needed. Bradley R. S. Keimig F. T. Diaz H. F. Hardy D. R. 19453 Article Comparisons are made between the reflectivity Z, median volume diameter D0, and rain rate R from a dual-frequency profiler and the C-band polarimetric radar (C-POL), which are both located near Darwin, Australia. Examples from the premonsoon “buildup” regime and the monsoon (oceanic) regime are used to illustrate the excellent agreement between the dual-profiler retrievals and the polarimetric radar-based retrievals. This work builds on similar works that were limited in scope to shallow tropical showers and predominantly stratiform rain events. The dual-frequency profiler retrievals of D0 and R herein are based on ensemble statistics, whereas the polarimetric radar retrievals are based on algorithms derived by using one season of disdrometer data from Darwin along with scattering simulations. The latest drop shape versus D relation is used as well as the canting angle distribution results obtained from the 80-m fall bridge experiment in the scattering simulations. The scatterplot of D0 from dual-frequency profiler versus Zdr measurements from C-POL is shown to be consistent not only with the theoretical simulations and prior data but also within prior predicted error bars for both stratiform rain as well as convective rain. Based on dual-frequency profiler–retrieved gamma drop size distribution parameters, a new smoothly varying “separator” indexing scheme has been developed that classifies between stratiform and convective rain types, including a continuous “transition” region between the two. This indexing technique has been applied on a number of low-elevation-angle plan position indicator (PPI) sweeps with the C-POL from the two regime examples, to construct “unconditioned” histograms of D0 in stratiform and convective rain (to within the sensitivity of the radar). With reference to the latter, it is demonstrated that the distribution of D0 is different in the buildup example than in the monsoon example, because of the differences in both the microphysical and kinematic features between the two regimes. In particular, (i) the mean D0 is significantly larger in the buildup example than in the monsoon example, irrespective of rain type; (ii) the histogram width (or standard deviation) is much larger for the buildup example than the monsoon example, irrespective of rain type; and (iii) the histogram skewness is negative for the monsoon regime example because of a lack of larger D0 values, whereas the buildup histogram is positively skewed irrespective of rain type. 2009-5 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 26 2107-2122 0 doi:10.1175/2009JTECHA1258.1 Comparisons are made between the reflectivity Z, median volume diameter D0, and rain rate R from a dual-frequency profiler and the C-band polarimetric radar (C-POL), which are both located near Darwin, Australia. Examples from the premonsoon “buildup” regime and the monsoon (oceanic) regime are used to illustrate the excellent agreement between the dual-profiler retrievals and the polarimetric radar-based retrievals. This work builds on similar works that were limited in scope to shallow tropical showers and predominantly stratiform rain events. The dual-frequency profiler retrievals of D0 and R herein are based on ensemble statistics, whereas the polarimetric radar retrievals are based on algorithms derived by using one season of disdrometer data from Darwin along with scattering simulations. The latest drop shape versus D relation is used as well as the canting angle distribution results obtained from the 80-m fall bridge experiment in the scattering simulations. The scatterplot of D0 from dual-frequency profiler versus Zdr measurements from C-POL is shown to be consistent not only with the theoretical simulations and prior data but also within prior predicted error bars for both stratiform rain as well as convective rain. Based on dual-frequency profiler–retrieved gamma drop size distribution parameters, a new smoothly varying “separator” indexing scheme has been developed that classifies between stratiform and convective rain types, including a continuous “transition” region between the two. This indexing technique has been applied on a number of low-elevation-angle plan position indicator (PPI) sweeps with the C-POL from the two regime examples, to construct “unconditioned” histograms of D0 in stratiform and convective rain (to within the sensitivity of the radar). With reference to the latter, it is demonstrated that the distribution of D0 is different in the buildup example than in the monsoon example, because of the differences in both the microphysical and kinematic features between the two regimes. In particular, (i) the mean D0 is significantly larger in the buildup example than in the monsoon example, irrespective of rain type; (ii) the histogram width (or standard deviation) is much larger for the buildup example than the monsoon example, irrespective of rain type; and (iii) the histogram skewness is negative for the monsoon regime example because of a lack of larger D0 values, whereas the buildup histogram is positively skewed irrespective of rain type. Bringi V. N. Williams C. R. 19454 Article Weather observations are vital for climate change monitoring and prediction. For the world's oceans, there are many meteorological and oceanographic observations available back to the mid-twentieth century, but coverage is limited in earlier periods, and particularly also during the two world wars. Before 1850 there are currently very few instrumental observations available. Consequently, detailed observational estimates of surface climate change can be made only back to the mid-nineteenth century. To improve and extend this early coverage, scientists need more observations from these periods. Fortunately, many such observations exist in logbooks, reports, and other paper records, but their inclusion in the climatic datasets requires that these paper records be abstracted from the world's archives, digitized into an electronic form, and blended into existing climate databases. As a first step in this direction, selected Royal Navy logbooks from the period of 1938–47, kept in the U.K. National Archives, have been photographed and digitized. These have provided more than 1,500,000 new observations for this period, and a preliminary analysis has shown significant improvements to the record of climate change in the mid-twentieth century. 2009-2 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90 219-230 0 10.1175/2008BAMS2522.1 Weather observations are vital for climate change monitoring and prediction. For the world's oceans, there are many meteorological and oceanographic observations available back to the mid-twentieth century, but coverage is limited in earlier periods, and particularly also during the two world wars. Before 1850 there are currently very few instrumental observations available. Consequently, detailed observational estimates of surface climate change can be made only back to the mid-nineteenth century. To improve and extend this early coverage, scientists need more observations from these periods. Fortunately, many such observations exist in logbooks, reports, and other paper records, but their inclusion in the climatic datasets requires that these paper records be abstracted from the world's archives, digitized into an electronic form, and blended into existing climate databases. As a first step in this direction, selected Royal Navy logbooks from the period of 1938–47, kept in the U.K. National Archives, have been photographed and digitized. These have provided more than 1,500,000 new observations for this period, and a preliminary analysis has shown significant improvements to the record of climate change in the mid-twentieth century. Brohan P. Allan R. Freeman J. E. Waple A. M. Wheeler D. Wilkinson C. Woodruff S. D. 19455 Article An eddy-permitting ocean model of the northeast Pacific is used to examine the ocean adjustment to changing wind forcing in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) at interannual-to-decadal timescales. It is found that the adjustment of the ocean model in the presence of mesoscale eddies is similar to that obtained with coarse-resolution models. Local Ekman pumping plays a key role in forcing pycnocline depth variability and, to a lesser degree, sea surface height (SSH) variability in the center of the Alaska gyre and in some areas of the eastern and northern GOA. Westward Rossby wave propagation is evident in the SSH field along some latitudes but is less noticeable in the pycnocline depth field. Differences between SSH and pycnocline depth are also found when considering their relationship with the local forcing and leading modes of climate variability in the northeast Pacific. In the central GOA pycnocline depth variations are more clearly related to changes in the local Ekman pumping than SSH. While SSH is marginally correlated with both Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) indices, the pycnocline depth evolution is primarily related to NPGO variability. The intensity of the mesoscale eddy field increases with increasing circulation strength. The eddy field is generally more energetic after the 1976–1977 climate regime shift, when the gyre circulation intensified. In the western basin, where eddies primarily originate from intrinsic instabilities of the flow, variations in eddy kinetic energy are statistically significant correlated with the PDO index, indicating that eddy statistics may be inferred, to some degree, from the characteristics of the large-scale flow. 2009-1 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114 0 10.1029/2008JC004983 An eddy-permitting ocean model of the northeast Pacific is used to examine the ocean adjustment to changing wind forcing in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) at interannual-to-decadal timescales. It is found that the adjustment of the ocean model in the presence of mesoscale eddies is similar to that obtained with coarse-resolution models. Local Ekman pumping plays a key role in forcing pycnocline depth variability and, to a lesser degree, sea surface height (SSH) variability in the center of the Alaska gyre and in some areas of the eastern and northern GOA. Westward Rossby wave propagation is evident in the SSH field along some latitudes but is less noticeable in the pycnocline depth field. Differences between SSH and pycnocline depth are also found when considering their relationship with the local forcing and leading modes of climate variability in the northeast Pacific. In the central GOA pycnocline depth variations are more clearly related to changes in the local Ekman pumping than SSH. While SSH is marginally correlated with both Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) indices, the pycnocline depth evolution is primarily related to NPGO variability. The intensity of the mesoscale eddy field increases with increasing circulation strength. The eddy field is generally more energetic after the 1976–1977 climate regime shift, when the gyre circulation intensified. In the western basin, where eddies primarily originate from intrinsic instabilities of the flow, variations in eddy kinetic energy are statistically significant correlated with the PDO index, indicating that eddy statistics may be inferred, to some degree, from the characteristics of the large-scale flow. Capotondi A. Combes V. Alexander M. A. Di Lorenzo E. Miller A. J. 19456 Article Under the right meteorological conditions, whales can leave a trail of cool spots on the ocean surface that are detectable in infrared images. When the wind is light and the sun is shining, the surface water warms to produce a thermal gradient in the top few meters of the ocean. Under these conditions, whales swimming near the surface produce a jet of cooler water with each upward motion of the tail fluke. When this jet reaches the surface, it will produce a temperature difference that can persist for several minutes. In this paper, we report the first observations of these thermal footprints; we discovered them in infrared images made by a camera mounted in a light twin-engine airplane. We also describe their formation and dissipation. 2009-3 Oceanography 22 206-209 0 10.5670/oceanog.2009.20 Under the right meteorological conditions, whales can leave a trail of cool spots on the ocean surface that are detectable in infrared images. When the wind is light and the sun is shining, the surface water warms to produce a thermal gradient in the top few meters of the ocean. Under these conditions, whales swimming near the surface produce a jet of cooler water with each upward motion of the tail fluke. When this jet reaches the surface, it will produce a temperature difference that can persist for several minutes. In this paper, we report the first observations of these thermal footprints; we discovered them in infrared images made by a camera mounted in a light twin-engine airplane. We also describe their formation and dissipation. Churnside J. H. Ostrovsky L. Veenstra T. 19457 Article During the Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign (RHUBC), held in February-March 2007, three millimeter-wave radiometers were operated at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's site in Barrow, Alaska. These radiometers contain several channels located around the strong 183.31-GHz water vapor line, which is crucial for ground-based water-vapor measurements in very dry conditions, typical of the Arctic. Simultaneous radiosonde observations were carried out during conditions with very low integrated-water-vapor (IWV) content (< 2 mm). Observations from the three instruments are compared, accounting for their different design characteristics. The overall agreement during RHUBC among the three instruments and between instruments and forward model is discussed quantitatively. In general, the instrument cross-validation performed for sets of channel pairs showed agreement within the total expected uncertainty. The consistency between instruments allows the determination of the IWV to within around 2% for these dry conditions. Comparisons between these data sets and forward-model simulations using radiosondes as input show spectral features in the brightness-temperature residuals, indicating some degree of inconsistency between the instruments and the forward model. The most likely cause of forward-model error is systematic errors in the radiosonde humidity profiles. 2009-9 IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 47 3098-3106 0 doi:10.1109/TGRS.2009.2020743 During the Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign (RHUBC), held in February-March 2007, three millimeter-wave radiometers were operated at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's site in Barrow, Alaska. These radiometers contain several channels located around the strong 183.31-GHz water vapor line, which is crucial for ground-based water-vapor measurements in very dry conditions, typical of the Arctic. Simultaneous radiosonde observations were carried out during conditions with very low integrated-water-vapor (IWV) content (< 2 mm). Observations from the three instruments are compared, accounting for their different design characteristics. The overall agreement during RHUBC among the three instruments and between instruments and forward model is discussed quantitatively. In general, the instrument cross-validation performed for sets of channel pairs showed agreement within the total expected uncertainty. The consistency between instruments allows the determination of the IWV to within around 2% for these dry conditions. Comparisons between these data sets and forward-model simulations using radiosondes as input show spectral features in the brightness-temperature residuals, indicating some degree of inconsistency between the instruments and the forward model. The most likely cause of forward-model error is systematic errors in the radiosonde humidity profiles. Cimini D. Nasir F. Westwater E. R. Payne V. H. Turner D. D. Milawer E. J. Exner M. L. Cadeddu M. P. 19458 Article This paper describes the airborne data collected during the 2002 and 2003 Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX). These data include gamma radiation observations, multi- and hyperspectral optical imaging, optical altimetry, and passive and active microwave observations of the test areas. The gamma observations were collected with the NOAA/National Weather Service Gamma Radiation Detection System (GAMMA). The CLPX multispectral optical data consist of very high-resolution color-infrared orthoimagery of the intensive study areas (ISAs) by TerrainVision. The airborne hyperspectral optical data consist of observations from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Optical altimetry measurements were collected using airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) by TerrainVision. The active microwave data include radar observations from the NASA Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Polarimetric Ku-band Scatterometer (POLSCAT), and airborne GPS bistatic radar data collected with the NASA GPS radar delay mapping receiver (DMR). The passive microwave data consist of observations collected with the NOAA Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (PSR). All of the airborne datasets described here and more information describing data collection and processing are available online. 2009-2 J. Hydrometeor. 10 338-346 0 10.1175/2008JHM883.1 This paper describes the airborne data collected during the 2002 and 2003 Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX). These data include gamma radiation observations, multi- and hyperspectral optical imaging, optical altimetry, and passive and active microwave observations of the test areas. The gamma observations were collected with the NOAA/National Weather Service Gamma Radiation Detection System (GAMMA). The CLPX multispectral optical data consist of very high-resolution color-infrared orthoimagery of the intensive study areas (ISAs) by TerrainVision. The airborne hyperspectral optical data consist of observations from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Optical altimetry measurements were collected using airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) by TerrainVision. The active microwave data include radar observations from the NASA Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Polarimetric Ku-band Scatterometer (POLSCAT), and airborne GPS bistatic radar data collected with the NASA GPS radar delay mapping receiver (DMR). The passive microwave data consist of observations collected with the NOAA Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (PSR). All of the airborne datasets described here and more information describing data collection and processing are available online. Cline D. Yueh S. Chapman B. Stankov B. B. Gasiewski A. J. Masters D. Elder K. Kelly R. Painter T. H. Miller S. Katzberg S. Mahrt L. 19459 Article Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land. Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences. 2009-2 Clim. Dyn. 32 333-342 0 10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9 Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land. Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences. Compo G. P. Sardeshmukh P. D. 19461 Article In this paper we report on a laboratory study, the Spray Production and Dynamics Experiment (SPANDEX), conducted at the University of New South Wales Water Research Laboratory in Australia. The goals of SPANDEX were to illuminate physical aspects of spume droplet production and dispersion; verify theoretical simplifications used to estimate the source function from ambient droplet concentration measurements; and examine the relationship between the implied source strength and forcing parameters such as wind speed, surface turbulent stress, and wave properties. Observations of droplet profiles give reasonable confirmation of the basic power law profile relationship that is commonly used to relate droplet concentrations to the surface source strength. This essentially confirms that, even in a wind tunnel, there is a near balance between droplet production and removal by gravitational settling. The observations also indicate considerable droplet mass may be present for sizes larger than 1.5 mm diameter. Phase Doppler Anemometry observations revealed significant mean horizontal and vertical slip velocities that were larger closer to the surface. The magnitude seems too large to be an acceleration time scale effect. Scaling of the droplet production surface source strength proved to be difficult. The wind speed forcing varied only 23% and the stress increased a factor of 2.2. Yet, the source strength increased by about a factor of 7. We related this to an estimate of surface wave energy flux through calculations of the standard deviation of small-scale water surface disturbance, a wave-stress parameterization, and numerical wave model simulations. This energy index only increased by a factor of 2.3 with the wind forcing. Nonetheless, a graph of spray mass surface flux versus surface disturbance energy is quasi-linear with a substantial threshold. 2009-10 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114 C10001 0 10.1029/2008JC004918 In this paper we report on a laboratory study, the Spray Production and Dynamics Experiment (SPANDEX), conducted at the University of New South Wales Water Research Laboratory in Australia. The goals of SPANDEX were to illuminate physical aspects of spume droplet production and dispersion; verify theoretical simplifications used to estimate the source function from ambient droplet concentration measurements; and examine the relationship between the implied source strength and forcing parameters such as wind speed, surface turbulent stress, and wave properties. Observations of droplet profiles give reasonable confirmation of the basic power law profile relationship that is commonly used to relate droplet concentrations to the surface source strength. This essentially confirms that, even in a wind tunnel, there is a near balance between droplet production and removal by gravitational settling. The observations also indicate considerable droplet mass may be present for sizes larger than 1.5 mm diameter. Phase Doppler Anemometry observations revealed significant mean horizontal and vertical slip velocities that were larger closer to the surface. The magnitude seems too large to be an acceleration time scale effect. Scaling of the droplet production surface source strength proved to be difficult. The wind speed forcing varied only 23% and the stress increased a factor of 2.2. Yet, the source strength increased by about a factor of 7. We related this to an estimate of surface wave energy flux through calculations of the standard deviation of small-scale water surface disturbance, a wave-stress parameterization, and numerical wave model simulations. This energy index only increased by a factor of 2.3 with the wind forcing. Nonetheless, a graph of spray mass surface flux versus surface disturbance energy is quasi-linear with a substantial threshold. Fairall C. W. Banner M. L. Peirson W. L. Asher W. Morrison R. P. 19462 Article The performance of the wave model WAVEWATCH III under a very strong, category 5, tropical cyclone wind forcing is investigated with different drag coefficient parameterizations and ocean current inputs. The model results are compared with field observations of the surface wave spectra from an airborne scanning radar altimeter, National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) time series, and satellite altimeter measurements in Hurricane Ivan (2004). The results suggest that the model with the original drag coefficient parameterization tends to overestimate the significant wave height and the dominant wavelength and produces a wave spectrum with narrower directional spreading. When an improved drag parameterization is introduced and the wave–current interaction is included, the model yields an improved forecast of significant wave height, but underestimates the dominant wavelength. When the hurricane moves over a preexisting mesoscale ocean feature, such as the Loop Current in the Gulf of America or a warm- and cold-core ring, the current associated with the feature can accelerate or decelerate the wave propagation and significantly modulate the wave spectrum. 2009-9 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 39 2097-2116 0 10.1175/2009JPO4224.1 The performance of the wave model WAVEWATCH III under a very strong, category 5, tropical cyclone wind forcing is investigated with different drag coefficient parameterizations and ocean current inputs. The model results are compared with field observations of the surface wave spectra from an airborne scanning radar altimeter, National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) time series, and satellite altimeter measurements in Hurricane Ivan (2004). The results suggest that the model with the original drag coefficient parameterization tends to overestimate the significant wave height and the dominant wavelength and produces a wave spectrum with narrower directional spreading. When an improved drag parameterization is introduced and the wave–current interaction is included, the model yields an improved forecast of significant wave height, but underestimates the dominant wavelength. When the hurricane moves over a preexisting mesoscale ocean feature, such as the Loop Current in the Gulf of America or a warm- and cold-core ring, the current associated with the feature can accelerate or decelerate the wave propagation and significantly modulate the wave spectrum. Fan Y. Ginis I. Hara T. Wright C. W. Walsh E. J. 19463 Article This second paper examines the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) variability from reconstructions, observed indices, and simulations from 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models from 1865 to 2005. Comparisons reveal the models do not fully simulate the duration of strong natural variability within the reconstructions during the 1930s and 1960s. Seasonal indices are examined to understand the relative roles of forced and natural fluctuations. The models capture the recent (1957–2005) positive SAM trends in austral summer, which reconstructions indicate is the strongest trend during the last 150 yr; ozone depletion is the dominant mechanism driving these trends. In autumn, negative trends after 1930 in the reconstructions are stronger than the recent positive trend. Furthermore, model trends in autumn during 1957–2005 are the most different from observations. Both of these conditions suggest the recent autumn trend is most likely natural climate variability, with external forcing playing a secondary role. Many models also produce significant spring trends during this period not seen in observations. Although insignificant, these differences arise because of vastly different spatial structures in the Southern Hemisphere pressure trends. As the trend differences between models and observations in austral spring have been increasing over the last 30 yr, care must be exercised when examining the future SAM projections and their impacts in this season. 2009-10 J. Climate 22 5346-5365 0 10.1175/2009JCLI2786.1 This second paper examines the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) variability from reconstructions, observed indices, and simulations from 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models from 1865 to 2005. Comparisons reveal the models do not fully simulate the duration of strong natural variability within the reconstructions during the 1930s and 1960s. Seasonal indices are examined to understand the relative roles of forced and natural fluctuations. The models capture the recent (1957–2005) positive SAM trends in austral summer, which reconstructions indicate is the strongest trend during the last 150 yr; ozone depletion is the dominant mechanism driving these trends. In autumn, negative trends after 1930 in the reconstructions are stronger than the recent positive trend. Furthermore, model trends in autumn during 1957–2005 are the most different from observations. Both of these conditions suggest the recent autumn trend is most likely natural climate variability, with external forcing playing a secondary role. Many models also produce significant spring trends during this period not seen in observations. Although insignificant, these differences arise because of vastly different spatial structures in the Southern Hemisphere pressure trends. As the trend differences between models and observations in austral spring have been increasing over the last 30 yr, care must be exercised when examining the future SAM projections and their impacts in this season. Fogt R. L. Perlwitz J. Monaghan A. J. Bromwich D. H. Jones J. M. Marshall G. J. 19464 Article Observed co-variations between polar total column ozone and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) during 1962–2004 are presented and evaluated in a chemistry-climate model (CCM). Results show that austral spring total column ozone variability at South Pole is significantly related to the SAM, perhaps up to four months later; this relationship is only seen in simulations that include ozone depletion. The austral spring SAM also is linked to following late spring – early summer total column ozone over the polar cap, since both respond to the wave-driving of the stratosphere. Overall, the CCM captures many of the observed ozone-SAM links, but over-predicts the relationship between spring ozone and austral summer SAM, as a consequence of the delayed breakdown of the polar vortex in the CCM. 2009-2 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L04707 0 10.1029/2008GL036627 Observed co-variations between polar total column ozone and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) during 1962–2004 are presented and evaluated in a chemistry-climate model (CCM). Results show that austral spring total column ozone variability at South Pole is significantly related to the SAM, perhaps up to four months later; this relationship is only seen in simulations that include ozone depletion. The austral spring SAM also is linked to following late spring – early summer total column ozone over the polar cap, since both respond to the wave-driving of the stratosphere. Overall, the CCM captures many of the observed ozone-SAM links, but over-predicts the relationship between spring ozone and austral summer SAM, as a consequence of the delayed breakdown of the polar vortex in the CCM. Fogt R. L. Perlwitz J. Pawson S. Olsen M. A. 19465 Article As multicentury records of natural hydrologic variability, tree ring reconstructions of streamflow have proven valuable in water resources planning and management. All previous reconstructions have used parametric methods, most often regression, to develop a model relating a set of tree ring data to a target hydrology. In this paper, we present the first development and application of a K nearest neighbor (KNN) nonparametric method to reconstruct naturalized annual streamflow ensembles from tree ring chronology data in the Upper Colorado River Basin region. The method is developed using tree ring chronologies from the period 1400–2005 and naturalized streamflow from the period 1906–2005 at the important Lees Ferry, Arizona, gauge on the Colorado River to develop annual streamflow ensembles for this gauge for the 1400–1905 period. The proposed KNN algorithm was developed and tested using cross validation for the overlap period, i.e., the contemporary observed period for which both the tree ring and streamflow data are available (1906–2005). The cross-validated streamflow reconstructions for the selected contemporary period compare very well with the observed flows and also with published parametric streamflow reconstructions for this gauge. The proposed nonparametric method provides an ensemble of streamflows for each year in the paleohydrologic reconstruction period (1400–1905) and, consequently, a more realistic asymmetric confidence interval than one obtained through most parametric approaches. Also, the K nearest neighbors are obtained only from the tree ring chronology data, and thus, the method can be used to reconstruct structured and even nonnumerical data for use in water resources modeling. 2009-6 Water Resour. Res. 45 W06417 0 10.1029/2008WR007201 As multicentury records of natural hydrologic variability, tree ring reconstructions of streamflow have proven valuable in water resources planning and management. All previous reconstructions have used parametric methods, most often regression, to develop a model relating a set of tree ring data to a target hydrology. In this paper, we present the first development and application of a K nearest neighbor (KNN) nonparametric method to reconstruct naturalized annual streamflow ensembles from tree ring chronology data in the Upper Colorado River Basin region. The method is developed using tree ring chronologies from the period 1400–2005 and naturalized streamflow from the period 1906–2005 at the important Lees Ferry, Arizona, gauge on the Colorado River to develop annual streamflow ensembles for this gauge for the 1400–1905 period. The proposed KNN algorithm was developed and tested using cross validation for the overlap period, i.e., the contemporary observed period for which both the tree ring and streamflow data are available (1906–2005). The cross-validated streamflow reconstructions for the selected contemporary period compare very well with the observed flows and also with published parametric streamflow reconstructions for this gauge. The proposed nonparametric method provides an ensemble of streamflows for each year in the paleohydrologic reconstruction period (1400–1905) and, consequently, a more realistic asymmetric confidence interval than one obtained through most parametric approaches. Also, the K nearest neighbors are obtained only from the tree ring chronology data, and thus, the method can be used to reconstruct structured and even nonnumerical data for use in water resources modeling. Gangopadhyay S. Harding B. L. Rajagopalan B. Lukas J. J. Fulp T. J. 19466 Article The significance of the removal of tropospheric ozone by the oceans, covering ∼2/3 of the Earth's surface, has only been addressed in a few studies involving water tank, aircraft, and tower flux measurements. On the basis of results from these few observations of the ozone dry deposition velocity (VdO3), atmospheric chemistry models generally apply an empirical, constant ocean uptake rate of 0.05 cm s−1. This value is substantially smaller than the atmospheric turbulent transport velocity for ozone. On the other hand, the uptake is higher than expected from the solubility of ozone in clean water alone, suggesting that there is an enhancement in oceanic ozone uptake, e.g., through a chemical destruction mechanism. We present an evaluation of a global-scale analysis with a new mechanistic representation of atmosphere-ocean ozone exchange. The applied atmosphere chemistry-climate model includes not only atmospheric but also waterside turbulence and the role of waterside chemical loss processes as a function of oceanic biogeochemistry. The simulations suggest a larger role of biogeochemistry in tropical and subtropical ozone oceanic uptake with a relative small temporal variability, whereas in midlatitude and high-latitude regions, highly variable ozone uptake rates are expected because of the stronger influence of waterside turbulence. Despite a relatively large range in the explicitly calculated ocean uptake rate, there is a surprisingly small sensitivity of simulated Marine Boundary Layer ozone concentrations compared to the sensitivity for the commonly applied constant ocean uptake approach. This small sensitivity points at compensating effects through inclusion of the process-based ocean uptake mechanisms to consider variability in oceanic O3 deposition consistent with that in atmospheric and oceanic physical, chemical, and biological processes. 2009-11 Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23 GB4021 0 doi:10.1029/2008GB003301 The significance of the removal of tropospheric ozone by the oceans, covering ∼2/3 of the Earth's surface, has only been addressed in a few studies involving water tank, aircraft, and tower flux measurements. On the basis of results from these few observations of the ozone dry deposition velocity (VdO3), atmospheric chemistry models generally apply an empirical, constant ocean uptake rate of 0.05 cm s−1. This value is substantially smaller than the atmospheric turbulent transport velocity for ozone. On the other hand, the uptake is higher than expected from the solubility of ozone in clean water alone, suggesting that there is an enhancement in oceanic ozone uptake, e.g., through a chemical destruction mechanism. We present an evaluation of a global-scale analysis with a new mechanistic representation of atmosphere-ocean ozone exchange. The applied atmosphere chemistry-climate model includes not only atmospheric but also waterside turbulence and the role of waterside chemical loss processes as a function of oceanic biogeochemistry. The simulations suggest a larger role of biogeochemistry in tropical and subtropical ozone oceanic uptake with a relative small temporal variability, whereas in midlatitude and high-latitude regions, highly variable ozone uptake rates are expected because of the stronger influence of waterside turbulence. Despite a relatively large range in the explicitly calculated ocean uptake rate, there is a surprisingly small sensitivity of simulated Marine Boundary Layer ozone concentrations compared to the sensitivity for the commonly applied constant ocean uptake approach. This small sensitivity points at compensating effects through inclusion of the process-based ocean uptake mechanisms to consider variability in oceanic O3 deposition consistent with that in atmospheric and oceanic physical, chemical, and biological processes. Ganzeveld L. Helmig D. Fairall C. W. Hare J. Pozzer A. 19467 Article A 5-yr climatology of the meteorology, including boundary layer cloudiness, for the southeast Pacific region is presented using observations from a buoy located at 20°S, 85°W. The sea surface temperature and surface air temperature exhibit a sinusoidal seasonal cycle that is negatively correlated with surface pressure. The relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction show little seasonal variability. But the advection of cold and dry air from the southeast varies seasonally and is highly correlated with the latent heat flux variations. A simple model was used to estimate the monthly cloud fraction using the observed surface downwelling longwave radiative flux and surface meteorological parameters. The annual cycle of cloud fraction is highly correlated to that of S. A. Klein: lower-tropospheric stability parameter (0.87), latent heat flux (−0.59), and temperature and moisture advection (0.60). The derived cloud fraction compares poorly with the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)-derived low-cloud cover but compares well (0.86 correlation) with ISCCP low- plus middle-cloud cover. The monthly averaged diurnal variations in cloud fraction show marked seasonal variability in the amplitude and temporal structure. The mean annual cloud fraction is lower than the mean annual nighttime cloud fraction by about 9%. Annual and diurnal cycles of surface longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing were also estimated. The longwave cloud radiative forcing is about 45 W m−2 year-round, but, because of highly negative shortwave cloud radiative forcing, the net cloud radiative forcing is always negative with an annual mean of −50 W m−2. 2009-10 J. Climate 22 5527-5540 0 10.1175/2009JCLI2961.1 A 5-yr climatology of the meteorology, including boundary layer cloudiness, for the southeast Pacific region is presented using observations from a buoy located at 20°S, 85°W. The sea surface temperature and surface air temperature exhibit a sinusoidal seasonal cycle that is negatively correlated with surface pressure. The relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction show little seasonal variability. But the advection of cold and dry air from the southeast varies seasonally and is highly correlated with the latent heat flux variations. A simple model was used to estimate the monthly cloud fraction using the observed surface downwelling longwave radiative flux and surface meteorological parameters. The annual cycle of cloud fraction is highly correlated to that of S. A. Klein: lower-tropospheric stability parameter (0.87), latent heat flux (−0.59), and temperature and moisture advection (0.60). The derived cloud fraction compares poorly with the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)-derived low-cloud cover but compares well (0.86 correlation) with ISCCP low- plus middle-cloud cover. The monthly averaged diurnal variations in cloud fraction show marked seasonal variability in the amplitude and temporal structure. The mean annual cloud fraction is lower than the mean annual nighttime cloud fraction by about 9%. Annual and diurnal cycles of surface longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing were also estimated. The longwave cloud radiative forcing is about 45 W m−2 year-round, but, because of highly negative shortwave cloud radiative forcing, the net cloud radiative forcing is always negative with an annual mean of −50 W m−2. Ghate V. Albrecht B. Fairall C. W. Weller R. A. 19469 Article Measurements of long-range cross-correlations of ambient noise underlie acoustic noise interferometry, a promising technique for passive remote sensing of the environment. Previously established simple, exact relations between deterministic Green’s functions and the cross-correlation function of perfectly diffuse noise do not necessarily hold for noise fields in the ocean and atmosphere. Here, the method of a stationary phase is applied to study the information content of the cross-correlation function of non-diffuse noise and to quantify the accuracy of passive measurements of the acoustic travel times. 2009-12 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 126 EL183-EL189 0 doi:10.1121/1.3258064 Measurements of long-range cross-correlations of ambient noise underlie acoustic noise interferometry, a promising technique for passive remote sensing of the environment. Previously established simple, exact relations between deterministic Green’s functions and the cross-correlation function of perfectly diffuse noise do not necessarily hold for noise fields in the ocean and atmosphere. Here, the method of a stationary phase is applied to study the information content of the cross-correlation function of non-diffuse noise and to quantify the accuracy of passive measurements of the acoustic travel times. Godin O. A. 19470 Article Two-point correlation functions of sufficiently diffuse wave fields generated by uncorrelated random sources are known to approximate deterministic Green’s functions between the two points. This property is utilized increasingly for passive imaging and remote sensing of the environment. Here we show that the relation between the Green’s functions and the noise cross-correlation function holds under much less restrictive conditions than previously thought. It can even hold when ambient noise sources have correlation ranges large compared to the wavelength. Admissible correlation ranges are limited from above by the size of the Fresnel zone at wave propagation between the points where noise cross correlation is evaluated. 2009-12 Phys. Rev. E 80 66605 0 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.066605 Two-point correlation functions of sufficiently diffuse wave fields generated by uncorrelated random sources are known to approximate deterministic Green’s functions between the two points. This property is utilized increasingly for passive imaging and remote sensing of the environment. Here we show that the relation between the Green’s functions and the noise cross-correlation function holds under much less restrictive conditions than previously thought. It can even hold when ambient noise sources have correlation ranges large compared to the wavelength. Admissible correlation ranges are limited from above by the size of the Fresnel zone at wave propagation between the points where noise cross correlation is evaluated. Godin O. A. 19471 Article Fluctuation-dissipation and flow reversal theorems are used to study long-range correlation of thermal phonons in a stationary heterogeneous mechanical system comprised of arbitrary inhomogeneous fluid flow and anisotropic solid. At thermal equilibrium, with an appropriate choice of physical observables to characterize thermal fluctuations within the fluid and within the solid, the general integral expression for the two-point correlation function of the fluctuations reduces to a linear combination of deterministic Green’s functions, which describe wave propagation in opposite directions between the two points. It is demonstrated that the cross-correlation of thermal noise contains as much information about the environment as can be obtained in active reciprocal transmission experiments with transceivers placed at the two points. These findings suggest a possible application of ambient noise cross-correlation to passive acoustic characterization of inhomogeneous flows in fluid-solid systems in laboratory and geophysical settings. 2009-4 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 125 1960-1970 0 10.1121/1.3082101 Fluctuation-dissipation and flow reversal theorems are used to study long-range correlation of thermal phonons in a stationary heterogeneous mechanical system comprised of arbitrary inhomogeneous fluid flow and anisotropic solid. At thermal equilibrium, with an appropriate choice of physical observables to characterize thermal fluctuations within the fluid and within the solid, the general integral expression for the two-point correlation function of the fluctuations reduces to a linear combination of deterministic Green’s functions, which describe wave propagation in opposite directions between the two points. It is demonstrated that the cross-correlation of thermal noise contains as much information about the environment as can be obtained in active reciprocal transmission experiments with transceivers placed at the two points. These findings suggest a possible application of ambient noise cross-correlation to passive acoustic characterization of inhomogeneous flows in fluid-solid systems in laboratory and geophysical settings. Godin O. A. 19472 Article Extensive numerical modeling of long-range propagation of sound and seismic waves as well as observations of underwater acoustic fields with line arrays reveal that wave fronts are often much more stable and predictable than the rays comprising these wave fronts. This paper considers multiple scattering of sound by environmental inhomogeneities with spatial scales that are small compared to the propagation range but large compared to the wavelength. These inhomogeneities include 3-D variations in sound speed and current velocity that are small compared to the average sound speed, can be either random or deterministic, and are superimposed on an arbitrary slowly varying background. A theoretical explanation of wave-front stability in highly structured environments is achieved by demonstrating that end points of rays launched from a point source and having a given eikonal (phase) are scattered primarily along the wave front corresponding to the same eikonal in an unperturbed environment. The ratio of displacements of the ray end points along and across the unperturbed wave front is proportional to the number of uncorrelated scattering events. The results apply to conventional rays and to horizontal rays describing propagation of adiabatic normal modes in almost-layered media. The origin of relative stability of wave fronts compared to rays is traced back to Fermat's principle. 2009-11 Acta Acust. United Ac. 95 963-974 0 10.3813/AAA.918228 Extensive numerical modeling of long-range propagation of sound and seismic waves as well as observations of underwater acoustic fields with line arrays reveal that wave fronts are often much more stable and predictable than the rays comprising these wave fronts. This paper considers multiple scattering of sound by environmental inhomogeneities with spatial scales that are small compared to the propagation range but large compared to the wavelength. These inhomogeneities include 3-D variations in sound speed and current velocity that are small compared to the average sound speed, can be either random or deterministic, and are superimposed on an arbitrary slowly varying background. A theoretical explanation of wave-front stability in highly structured environments is achieved by demonstrating that end points of rays launched from a point source and having a given eikonal (phase) are scattered primarily along the wave front corresponding to the same eikonal in an unperturbed environment. The ratio of displacements of the ray end points along and across the unperturbed wave front is proportional to the number of uncorrelated scattering events. The results apply to conventional rays and to horizontal rays describing propagation of adiabatic normal modes in almost-layered media. The origin of relative stability of wave fronts compared to rays is traced back to Fermat's principle. Godin O. A. 19473 Article Energy streamlines provide insights into mechanisms of wave propagation and scattering and are often utilized to visualize wave fields. In contrast to rays, which are essentially an asymptotic, short-wave concept, energy streamlines adequately represent arbitrary wave fields. However, the usefulness of energy streamlines in studies of wave fields is limited by the fact that, unlike rays, no general laws governing energy streamline refraction are known. Here, a simple refraction law is derived for energy streamlines of acoustic and linearly polarized electromagnetic waves. It is shown that analysis of energy streamlines provides a helpful supplementary perspective on wave transmission through interfaces. 2009-2 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 125 EL117-EL122 0 10.1121/1.3082003 Energy streamlines provide insights into mechanisms of wave propagation and scattering and are often utilized to visualize wave fields. In contrast to rays, which are essentially an asymptotic, short-wave concept, energy streamlines adequately represent arbitrary wave fields. However, the usefulness of energy streamlines in studies of wave fields is limited by the fact that, unlike rays, no general laws governing energy streamline refraction are known. Here, a simple refraction law is derived for energy streamlines of acoustic and linearly polarized electromagnetic waves. It is shown that analysis of energy streamlines provides a helpful supplementary perspective on wave transmission through interfaces. Godin O. A. 19474 Article Observations of tsunamis away from shore are critically important for improving early warning systems and understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude there is much smaller than it is close to shore. Currently, tsunami observations in deep water rely on measurements of variations in the sea surface height or bottom pressure. Here we demonstrate that there exists a different observable, specifically, ocean surface roughness, which can be used to reveal tsunamis away from shore. The first detailed measurements of the tsunami effect on sea surface height and radar backscattering strength in the open ocean were obtained from satellite altimeters during passage of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami. Through statistical analyses of satellite altimeter observations, we show that the Sumatra-Andaman tsunami effected distinct, detectable changes in sea surface roughness. The magnitude and spatial structure of the observed variations in radar backscattering strength are consistent with hydrodynamic models predicting variations in the near-surface wind across the tsunami wave front. Tsunami-induced changes in sea surface roughness can be potentially used for early tsunami detection by orbiting microwave radars and radiometers, which have broad surface coverage across the satellite ground track. 2009-7 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9 1135-1147 0 10.5194/nhess-9-1135-2009 Observations of tsunamis away from shore are critically important for improving early warning systems and understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude there is much smaller than it is close to shore. Currently, tsunami observations in deep water rely on measurements of variations in the sea surface height or bottom pressure. Here we demonstrate that there exists a different observable, specifically, ocean surface roughness, which can be used to reveal tsunamis away from shore. The first detailed measurements of the tsunami effect on sea surface height and radar backscattering strength in the open ocean were obtained from satellite altimeters during passage of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami. Through statistical analyses of satellite altimeter observations, we show that the Sumatra-Andaman tsunami effected distinct, detectable changes in sea surface roughness. The magnitude and spatial structure of the observed variations in radar backscattering strength are consistent with hydrodynamic models predicting variations in the near-surface wind across the tsunami wave front. Tsunami-induced changes in sea surface roughness can be potentially used for early tsunami detection by orbiting microwave radars and radiometers, which have broad surface coverage across the satellite ground track. Godin O. A. Irisov R. R. Leben R. R. Hamlington B. D. Wick G. A. 19475 Article Advanced remote sensing and in situ observing systems employed during the Hydrometeorological Testbed experiment on the American River basin near Sacramento, California, provided a unique opportunity to evaluate correction procedures applied to gap-filling, experimental radar precipitation products in complex terrain. The evaluation highlighted improvements in hourly radar rainfall estimation due to optimizing the parameters in the reflectivity-to-rainfall (Z–R) relation, correcting for the range dependence in estimating R due to the vertical variability in Z in snow and melting-layer regions, and improving low-altitude radar coverage by merging rainfall estimates from two research radars operating at different frequencies and polarization states. This evaluation revealed that although the rainfall product from research radars provided the smallest bias relative to gauge estimates, in terms of the root-mean-square error (with the bias removed) and Pearson correlation coefficient it did not outperform the product from a nearby operational radar that used optimized Z–R relations and was corrected for range dependence. This result was attributed to better low-altitude radar coverage with the operational radar over the upper part of the basin. In these regions, the data from the X-band research radar were not available and the C-band research radar was forced to use higher-elevation angles as a result of nearby terrain and tree blockages, which yielded greater uncertainty in surface rainfall estimates. This study highlights the challenges in siting experimental radars in complex terrain. Last, the corrections developed for research radar products were adapted and applied to an operational radar, thus providing a simple transfer of research findings to operational rainfall products yielding significantly improved skill. 2009-12 J. Hydrometeor. 10 1507-1520 0 10.1175/2009JHM1125.1 Advanced remote sensing and in situ observing systems employed during the Hydrometeorological Testbed experiment on the American River basin near Sacramento, California, provided a unique opportunity to evaluate correction procedures applied to gap-filling, experimental radar precipitation products in complex terrain. The evaluation highlighted improvements in hourly radar rainfall estimation due to optimizing the parameters in the reflectivity-to-rainfall (Z–R) relation, correcting for the range dependence in estimating R due to the vertical variability in Z in snow and melting-layer regions, and improving low-altitude radar coverage by merging rainfall estimates from two research radars operating at different frequencies and polarization states. This evaluation revealed that although the rainfall product from research radars provided the smallest bias relative to gauge estimates, in terms of the root-mean-square error (with the bias removed) and Pearson correlation coefficient it did not outperform the product from a nearby operational radar that used optimized Z–R relations and was corrected for range dependence. This result was attributed to better low-altitude radar coverage with the operational radar over the upper part of the basin. In these regions, the data from the X-band research radar were not available and the C-band research radar was forced to use higher-elevation angles as a result of nearby terrain and tree blockages, which yielded greater uncertainty in surface rainfall estimates. This study highlights the challenges in siting experimental radars in complex terrain. Last, the corrections developed for research radar products were adapted and applied to an operational radar, thus providing a simple transfer of research findings to operational rainfall products yielding significantly improved skill. Gourley J. J. Jorgensen D. P. Matrosov S. Y. Flamig Z. L. 19476 Article N/A 2009-11 J. Atmos. Sci. 66 3498-3500 0 10.1175/2009JAS3245.1 N/A Hamill T. M. Whitaker J. S. Anderson J. L. Snyder C. 19477 Article On 19 February 2001, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed complex alongfront variability in the precipitation structure of an intense cold-frontal rainband. The TRMM Microwave Imager brightness temperatures suggested that, compared to the northern and southern ends of the rainband, a greater amount of precipitation ice was concentrated in the middle portion of the rainband where the front bowed out. A model simulation conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is examined to explain the distribution of precipitation associated with the cold-frontal rainband. The simulation reveals that the enhanced precipitation ice production and the implied mean ascent along the central part of the front were associated with a synergistic interaction between a low-level front and an upper-level front associated with an intrusion of high-PV stratospheric air. The low-level front contributed to an intense bow-shaped narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR). The upper-level front was dynamically active only along the central to northern portion of the NCFR, where the upper-level PV advection and Q-vector convergence were most prominent. The enhanced mean ascent associated with the upper-level front contributed to a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) that trailed or overlapped with the NCFR along its central to northern segments. Because of the combination of the forcing from both lower- and upper-level fronts, the ascent was deepest and most intense along the central portion of the front. Thus, a large concentration of precipitation ice, attributed to both the NCFR and WCFR, was produced. 2009-3 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 1008-1028 0 10.1175/2008MWR2465.1 On 19 February 2001, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed complex alongfront variability in the precipitation structure of an intense cold-frontal rainband. The TRMM Microwave Imager brightness temperatures suggested that, compared to the northern and southern ends of the rainband, a greater amount of precipitation ice was concentrated in the middle portion of the rainband where the front bowed out. A model simulation conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is examined to explain the distribution of precipitation associated with the cold-frontal rainband. The simulation reveals that the enhanced precipitation ice production and the implied mean ascent along the central part of the front were associated with a synergistic interaction between a low-level front and an upper-level front associated with an intrusion of high-PV stratospheric air. The low-level front contributed to an intense bow-shaped narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR). The upper-level front was dynamically active only along the central to northern portion of the NCFR, where the upper-level PV advection and Q-vector convergence were most prominent. The enhanced mean ascent associated with the upper-level front contributed to a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) that trailed or overlapped with the NCFR along its central to northern segments. Because of the combination of the forcing from both lower- and upper-level fronts, the ascent was deepest and most intense along the central portion of the front. Thus, a large concentration of precipitation ice, attributed to both the NCFR and WCFR, was produced. Han M. Braun S. A. Persson P. O. G. Bao J.-W. 19478 Article Continuous surface-layer ozone flux measurements over the polar, year-round snowpack at Summit, Greenland, resulted in deposition velocities (vd) that were smaller than most previous assumptions and model inputs. Substantial seasonal differences were seen in the ozone vd behavior. Spring, daytime ozone vd values showed low variability and were consistently ≤0.01 cm s−1. During summer, ozone fluxes displayed distinct diurnal cycles, and evidence for regular occurrences of bi-directional behavior. Summer, daytime vd ranged between ∼0.01 to 0.07 cm s−1. Maximum summertime downward fluxes (ozone deposition) coincided with the hours of maximum solar radiation, i.e., noon–afternoon. During summer nighttime hours upward ozone fluxes were observed. These upward fluxes were interpreted as ozone production in a shallow layer near and above the snow surface with resulting upward ozone fluxes out of the shallow surface layer. Comparisons with published observations from temperate, midlatitude sites suggest different controls and behavior of ozone fluxes, and that ozone fluxes over snow depend on a myriad of parameters, including solar irradiance, snow chemical and physical properties, snowpack depth, and the type of substrate underneath the snow. 2009-4 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L08809 0 10.1029/2008GL036549 Continuous surface-layer ozone flux measurements over the polar, year-round snowpack at Summit, Greenland, resulted in deposition velocities (vd) that were smaller than most previous assumptions and model inputs. Substantial seasonal differences were seen in the ozone vd behavior. Spring, daytime ozone vd values showed low variability and were consistently ≤0.01 cm s−1. During summer, ozone fluxes displayed distinct diurnal cycles, and evidence for regular occurrences of bi-directional behavior. Summer, daytime vd ranged between ∼0.01 to 0.07 cm s−1. Maximum summertime downward fluxes (ozone deposition) coincided with the hours of maximum solar radiation, i.e., noon–afternoon. During summer nighttime hours upward ozone fluxes were observed. These upward fluxes were interpreted as ozone production in a shallow layer near and above the snow surface with resulting upward ozone fluxes out of the shallow surface layer. Comparisons with published observations from temperate, midlatitude sites suggest different controls and behavior of ozone fluxes, and that ozone fluxes over snow depend on a myriad of parameters, including solar irradiance, snow chemical and physical properties, snowpack depth, and the type of substrate underneath the snow. Helmig D. Cohen L. D. Bocquet F. Oltmans S. Grachev A. A. Neff W. D. 19479 Article This work uses long-term lidar and radar retrievals of the vertical structure of cloud at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Southern Great Plains site to evaluate cloud occurrence in multiyear runs of a cloud system–resolving model in three configurations of varying resolution and sophistication. The model is nudged to remain near the observed thermodynamic state and model fields are processed to mimic the operation of the observing system. The model’s skill in predicting cloud occurrence is evaluated using both traditional performance measures that assume ergodicity and probabilistic measures that do not require temporal averaging of the observations. The model shows considerable skill in predicting cloud occurrence when its thermodynamic state is close to that observed. The overall bias in modeled cloud occurrence is relatively small in all model runs, suggesting that this field is relatively well calibrated. The Brier scores attained by all configurations also suggest considerable model skill. Greater differences in performance are found between seasons than between model configurations during the same season, despite substantial differences between the computational costs of the configurations. Several significant seasonal dependencies are identified, most notably greater conditional bias, but better timing, of boundary layer cloud in winter, and substantially less conditional bias in high cloud during summer. 2009-9 J. Atmos. Sci. 66 2925-2936 0 10.1175/2009JAS2957.1 This work uses long-term lidar and radar retrievals of the vertical structure of cloud at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Southern Great Plains site to evaluate cloud occurrence in multiyear runs of a cloud system–resolving model in three configurations of varying resolution and sophistication. The model is nudged to remain near the observed thermodynamic state and model fields are processed to mimic the operation of the observing system. The model’s skill in predicting cloud occurrence is evaluated using both traditional performance measures that assume ergodicity and probabilistic measures that do not require temporal averaging of the observations. The model shows considerable skill in predicting cloud occurrence when its thermodynamic state is close to that observed. The overall bias in modeled cloud occurrence is relatively small in all model runs, suggesting that this field is relatively well calibrated. The Brier scores attained by all configurations also suggest considerable model skill. Greater differences in performance are found between seasons than between model configurations during the same season, despite substantial differences between the computational costs of the configurations. Several significant seasonal dependencies are identified, most notably greater conditional bias, but better timing, of boundary layer cloud in winter, and substantially less conditional bias in high cloud during summer. Henderson P. W. Pincus R. 19480 Article Diagnosis of observational and climate model data reveals that the two major U.S. droughts of the 20th Century had distinct causes. Drought severity over the Southern Plains during 1946–1956 is very likely attributable to remote influences of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The Southern Plains and adjacent Southwest are regions particularly sensitive to SST variability, and strong La Niña events that occurred during 1946–1956 exposed that region's drought vulnerability. Drought severity over the Northern Plains during 1932–1939 was likely triggered instead by random atmospheric variability. The Northern Plains lies within a region of comparatively low sensitivity to SST variability, and that region's drought exhibited little sensitivity to SST conditions during the Dust Bowl period. Our results indicate that the southern portions of the Great Plains lie within an epicenter of potentially skillful drought predictions for which an ocean observing system is also a vital drought early warning system. 2009-10 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L19708 0 10.1029/2009GL039860 Diagnosis of observational and climate model data reveals that the two major U.S. droughts of the 20th Century had distinct causes. Drought severity over the Southern Plains during 1946–1956 is very likely attributable to remote influences of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The Southern Plains and adjacent Southwest are regions particularly sensitive to SST variability, and strong La Niña events that occurred during 1946–1956 exposed that region's drought vulnerability. Drought severity over the Northern Plains during 1932–1939 was likely triggered instead by random atmospheric variability. The Northern Plains lies within a region of comparatively low sensitivity to SST variability, and that region's drought exhibited little sensitivity to SST conditions during the Dust Bowl period. Our results indicate that the southern portions of the Great Plains lie within an epicenter of potentially skillful drought predictions for which an ocean observing system is also a vital drought early warning system. Hoerling M. P. Quan X.-W. Eischeid J. K. 19481 Article Hindcast experiments for the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient G1, defined as tropical North Atlantic SST anomaly minus tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly, are performed using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean over the Atlantic to quantify the contributions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and the preconditioning in the Atlantic to G1 in boreal spring. The results confirm previous observational analyses that, in the years with a persistent ENSO SST anomaly from boreal winter to spring, the ENSO forcing plays a primary role in determining the tendency of G1 from winter to spring and the sign of G1 in late spring. In the hindcasts, the initial perturbations in Atlantic SST in boreal winter are found to generally persist beyond a season, leaving a secondary but nonnegligible contribution to the predicted Atlantic SST gradient in spring. For 1993/94, a neutral year with a large preexisting G1 in winter, the hindcast using the information of Atlantic preconditioning alone is found to reproduce the observed G1 in spring. The seasonal predictability in precipitation over South America is examined in the hindcast experiments. For the recent events that can be validated with high-quality observations, the hindcasts produced dryness in boreal spring 1983, wetness in spring 1996, and wetness in spring 1994 over northern Brazil that are qualitatively consistent with observations. An inclusion of the Atlantic preconditioning is found to help the prediction of South American rainfall in boreal spring. For the ENSO years, discrepancies remain between the hindcast and observed precipitation anomalies over northern and equatorial South America, an error that is partially attributed to the biased atmospheric response to ENSO forcing in the model. The hindcast of the 1993/94 neutral year does not suffer this error. It constitutes an intriguing example of useful seasonal forecast of G1 and South American rainfall anomalies without ENSO. 2009-5 J. Climate 22 2405-2421 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2569.1 Hindcast experiments for the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient G1, defined as tropical North Atlantic SST anomaly minus tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly, are performed using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean over the Atlantic to quantify the contributions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and the preconditioning in the Atlantic to G1 in boreal spring. The results confirm previous observational analyses that, in the years with a persistent ENSO SST anomaly from boreal winter to spring, the ENSO forcing plays a primary role in determining the tendency of G1 from winter to spring and the sign of G1 in late spring. In the hindcasts, the initial perturbations in Atlantic SST in boreal winter are found to generally persist beyond a season, leaving a secondary but nonnegligible contribution to the predicted Atlantic SST gradient in spring. For 1993/94, a neutral year with a large preexisting G1 in winter, the hindcast using the information of Atlantic preconditioning alone is found to reproduce the observed G1 in spring. The seasonal predictability in precipitation over South America is examined in the hindcast experiments. For the recent events that can be validated with high-quality observations, the hindcasts produced dryness in boreal spring 1983, wetness in spring 1996, and wetness in spring 1994 over northern Brazil that are qualitatively consistent with observations. An inclusion of the Atlantic preconditioning is found to help the prediction of South American rainfall in boreal spring. For the ENSO years, discrepancies remain between the hindcast and observed precipitation anomalies over northern and equatorial South America, an error that is partially attributed to the biased atmospheric response to ENSO forcing in the model. The hindcast of the 1993/94 neutral year does not suffer this error. It constitutes an intriguing example of useful seasonal forecast of G1 and South American rainfall anomalies without ENSO. Huang H. P. Robertson A. W. Kushnir Y. Peng S. 19482 Article A multisensor microwave retrieval of near-surface 10 m specific humidity (Qa) using satellite observations from the advanced microwave sounding unit-A (AMSU-A), the Special Sensor Microwave Temperature Sounder-2, and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager is improved upon in this study. Refinements to the regression formula, training data set, collocation procedure, and height adjustment to 10 m were used to improve retrievals from two different sensor combinations. Independent validation with the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) indicates a lower overall bias of ∼0.3 g/kg and a smaller root-mean-square difference of ∼0.4 g/kg than with several previously published single-sensor Qa retrievals. A significant regional Qa wet bias of ∼3 g/kg in the summer over the North Pacific was found for all satellite retrievals, and a correction was developed using an inversion index defined using sea surface temperature and AMSU-A lower tropospheric temperature observations. An assessment of ICOADS ship and buoy validation data indicated uncertainties related to height adjustments of these in situ observations to be 0.2–0.4 g/kg, while hygrometer differences and solar heating effects had smaller uncertainties of less than 0.05 g/kg. Validation of the updated multisensor retrievals with ICOADS over an 8-year period from 1999 to 2006 revealed a reduced magnitude of the regional biases when compared to previously published retrievals. Regional Qa differences, particularly in the subtropical high regions, are shown to play a significant role in determination of surface latent heat flux. 2009-8 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D16303 0 10.1029/2008JD011341 A multisensor microwave retrieval of near-surface 10 m specific humidity (Qa) using satellite observations from the advanced microwave sounding unit-A (AMSU-A), the Special Sensor Microwave Temperature Sounder-2, and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager is improved upon in this study. Refinements to the regression formula, training data set, collocation procedure, and height adjustment to 10 m were used to improve retrievals from two different sensor combinations. Independent validation with the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) indicates a lower overall bias of ∼0.3 g/kg and a smaller root-mean-square difference of ∼0.4 g/kg than with several previously published single-sensor Qa retrievals. A significant regional Qa wet bias of ∼3 g/kg in the summer over the North Pacific was found for all satellite retrievals, and a correction was developed using an inversion index defined using sea surface temperature and AMSU-A lower tropospheric temperature observations. An assessment of ICOADS ship and buoy validation data indicated uncertainties related to height adjustments of these in situ observations to be 0.2–0.4 g/kg, while hygrometer differences and solar heating effects had smaller uncertainties of less than 0.05 g/kg. Validation of the updated multisensor retrievals with ICOADS over an 8-year period from 1999 to 2006 revealed a reduced magnitude of the regional biases when compared to previously published retrievals. Regional Qa differences, particularly in the subtropical high regions, are shown to play a significant role in determination of surface latent heat flux. Jackson D. L. Wick G. A. Robertson F. R. 19483 Article This paper is part of a series of studies addressing the dynamics of the West African summer monsoon at intraseasonal time scales between 10 and 90 days. The dominant mode of 25–90-day convective variability in the African monsoon was investigated, starting from previous results involving the excitation of dry equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves by a negative diabatic heat source located over the warm pool. This evolution is consistent with a significant contribution by a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and the MJO. On the other hand, convectively coupled Kelvin waves as well as the dry Kelvin wave signal have a very weak impact. However, there is more to the global control of the African summer monsoon than convectively coupled wave dynamics. The active/break cycle of the Indian monsoon, controlled by a northward-moving dipole of diabatic heating in the Indian sector, can also influence the African monsoon through atmospheric teleconnections. Simulations performed with a dry primitive equation model show that this influence may be transferred through the northern Indian heat source, which excites a Rossby cyclonic circulation propagating westward over North Africa that is cut off by the northward arrival of the equatorial Indian heat source and the associated intrusion of an anticyclonic ridge. Low-level westerly winds and moisture advection within the ITCZ consequently increase over Africa. The mean time lag between an active phase over India and over Africa is about 15–20 days. 2009-3 J. Climate 22 1541-1565 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2314.1 This paper is part of a series of studies addressing the dynamics of the West African summer monsoon at intraseasonal time scales between 10 and 90 days. The dominant mode of 25–90-day convective variability in the African monsoon was investigated, starting from previous results involving the excitation of dry equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves by a negative diabatic heat source located over the warm pool. This evolution is consistent with a significant contribution by a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and the MJO. On the other hand, convectively coupled Kelvin waves as well as the dry Kelvin wave signal have a very weak impact. However, there is more to the global control of the African summer monsoon than convectively coupled wave dynamics. The active/break cycle of the Indian monsoon, controlled by a northward-moving dipole of diabatic heating in the Indian sector, can also influence the African monsoon through atmospheric teleconnections. Simulations performed with a dry primitive equation model show that this influence may be transferred through the northern Indian heat source, which excites a Rossby cyclonic circulation propagating westward over North Africa that is cut off by the northward arrival of the equatorial Indian heat source and the associated intrusion of an anticyclonic ridge. Low-level westerly winds and moisture advection within the ITCZ consequently increase over Africa. The mean time lag between an active phase over India and over Africa is about 15–20 days. Janicot S. Mounier F. Hall N. M. Leroux S. Sultan B. Kiladis G. N. 19484 Article Numerical prediction of precipitation associated with five cool-season atmospheric river events in northern California was analyzed and compared to observations. The model simulations were performed by using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) with four different microphysical parameterizations. This was done as a part of the 2005–06 field phase of the Hydrometeorological Test Bed project, for which special profilers, soundings, and surface observations were implemented. Using these unique datasets, the meteorology of atmospheric river events was described in terms of dynamical processes and the microphysical structure of the cloud systems that produced most of the surface precipitation. Events were categorized as “bright band” (BB) or “nonbright band” (NBB), the differences being the presence of significant amounts of ice aloft (or lack thereof) and a signature of higher reflectivity collocated with the melting layer produced by frozen precipitating particles descending through the 0°C isotherm. The model was reasonably successful at predicting the timing of surface fronts, the development and evolution of low-level jets associated with latent heating processes and terrain interaction, and wind flow signatures consistent with deep-layer thermal advection. However, the model showed the tendency to overestimate the duration and intensity of the impinging low-level winds. In general, all model configurations overestimated precipitation, especially in the case of BB events. Nonetheless, large differences in precipitation distribution and cloud structure among model runs using various microphysical parameterization schemes were noted. 2009-8 J. Hydrometeor. 4 847-870 0 10.1175/2009JHM1059.1 Numerical prediction of precipitation associated with five cool-season atmospheric river events in northern California was analyzed and compared to observations. The model simulations were performed by using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF) with four different microphysical parameterizations. This was done as a part of the 2005–06 field phase of the Hydrometeorological Test Bed project, for which special profilers, soundings, and surface observations were implemented. Using these unique datasets, the meteorology of atmospheric river events was described in terms of dynamical processes and the microphysical structure of the cloud systems that produced most of the surface precipitation. Events were categorized as “bright band” (BB) or “nonbright band” (NBB), the differences being the presence of significant amounts of ice aloft (or lack thereof) and a signature of higher reflectivity collocated with the melting layer produced by frozen precipitating particles descending through the 0°C isotherm. The model was reasonably successful at predicting the timing of surface fronts, the development and evolution of low-level jets associated with latent heating processes and terrain interaction, and wind flow signatures consistent with deep-layer thermal advection. However, the model showed the tendency to overestimate the duration and intensity of the impinging low-level winds. In general, all model configurations overestimated precipitation, especially in the case of BB events. Nonetheless, large differences in precipitation distribution and cloud structure among model runs using various microphysical parameterization schemes were noted. Jankov I. Bao J.-W. Neiman P. J. Schultz P. J. Yuan H. White A. B. 19485 Article Convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) control a substantial fraction of tropical rainfall variability. Their horizontal structures and dispersion characteristics correspond to Matsuno's (1966) solutions of the shallow water equations on an equatorial beta plane, namely, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves. Because of moist processes, the tilted vertical structures of CCEWs are complex, and their scales do not correspond to that expected from the linear theory of dry waves. The dynamical structures and cloud morphology of CCEWs display a large degree of self-similarity over a surprisingly wide range of scales, with shallow convection at their leading edge, followed by deep convection and then stratiform precipitation, mirroring that of individual mesoscale convective complexes. CCEWs have broad impacts within the tropics, and their simulation in general circulation models is still problematic, although progress has been made using simpler models. A complete understanding of CCEWs remains a challenge in tropical meteorology. 2009-4 Rev. Geophys. 47 RG2003 0 10.1029/2008RG000266 Convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) control a substantial fraction of tropical rainfall variability. Their horizontal structures and dispersion characteristics correspond to Matsuno's (1966) solutions of the shallow water equations on an equatorial beta plane, namely, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves. Because of moist processes, the tilted vertical structures of CCEWs are complex, and their scales do not correspond to that expected from the linear theory of dry waves. The dynamical structures and cloud morphology of CCEWs display a large degree of self-similarity over a surprisingly wide range of scales, with shallow convection at their leading edge, followed by deep convection and then stratiform precipitation, mirroring that of individual mesoscale convective complexes. CCEWs have broad impacts within the tropics, and their simulation in general circulation models is still problematic, although progress has been made using simpler models. A complete understanding of CCEWs remains a challenge in tropical meteorology. Kiladis G. N. Wheeler M. C. Haertel P. T. Straub K. H. Roundy P. E. 19486 Article Kinematic and microphysical characteristics of a stratiform rainband within Tropical Storm Gabrielle during landfall on 14 September 2001 were investigated using data from a collocated 915-MHz wind profiler and scanning Doppler radar. The curved 60-km-wide rainband was relatively intense with mesoscale updrafts and downdrafts exceeding ±1 m s−1. The bright band is classified as strong, as indicated by reflectivity factors in excess of 50 dBZ and rainfall rates below the bright band peaking at 10–20 mm h−1. The melting layer microphysical processes were examined to understand the relation between brightband processes and precipitation intensity and kinematics (mesoscale downdraft in particular) below the melting layer. The profiler and Doppler radar analyses, designed to maximize vertical resolution of flows within the melting layer, disclose a striking convergence–divergence couplet through the melting layer that implies a prominent cooling-induced finescale circulation. Melting-driven cooling initiates midlevel convergence in the upper part of the melting region, while weak convergence to positive divergence is analyzed within the lower melting layer. A melting-layer parameter study indicates the significance of the level of maximum reflectivity that separates convergence above from divergence below and also reveals a mixture of aggregation and breakup of ice particles, with aggregation being dominant. In this vigorous rainband case, the presence of strong mesoscale downdrafts cannot be ignored for accurate retrievals of raindrop size distribution and precipitation parameters from the Sans Air Motion model. When downdrafts are included, retrieved rainfall estimates were much higher than those under the zero vertical air motion assumption and were slightly less than those from a power-law Z–R relation. The rainfall estimates show a positive correlation with reflectivity factor and brightband intensity (i.e., aggregation degree) but less dependence on brightband height. 2009-6 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 1954-1971 0 10.1175/2008MWR2754.1 Kinematic and microphysical characteristics of a stratiform rainband within Tropical Storm Gabrielle during landfall on 14 September 2001 were investigated using data from a collocated 915-MHz wind profiler and scanning Doppler radar. The curved 60-km-wide rainband was relatively intense with mesoscale updrafts and downdrafts exceeding ±1 m s−1. The bright band is classified as strong, as indicated by reflectivity factors in excess of 50 dBZ and rainfall rates below the bright band peaking at 10–20 mm h−1. The melting layer microphysical processes were examined to understand the relation between brightband processes and precipitation intensity and kinematics (mesoscale downdraft in particular) below the melting layer. The profiler and Doppler radar analyses, designed to maximize vertical resolution of flows within the melting layer, disclose a striking convergence–divergence couplet through the melting layer that implies a prominent cooling-induced finescale circulation. Melting-driven cooling initiates midlevel convergence in the upper part of the melting region, while weak convergence to positive divergence is analyzed within the lower melting layer. A melting-layer parameter study indicates the significance of the level of maximum reflectivity that separates convergence above from divergence below and also reveals a mixture of aggregation and breakup of ice particles, with aggregation being dominant. In this vigorous rainband case, the presence of strong mesoscale downdrafts cannot be ignored for accurate retrievals of raindrop size distribution and precipitation parameters from the Sans Air Motion model. When downdrafts are included, retrieved rainfall estimates were much higher than those under the zero vertical air motion assumption and were slightly less than those from a power-law Z–R relation. The rainfall estimates show a positive correlation with reflectivity factor and brightband intensity (i.e., aggregation degree) but less dependence on brightband height. Kim D. Knupp K. R. Williams C. R. 19487 Article The ability of eight climate models to simulate the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined using diagnostics developed by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group. Although the MJO signal has been extracted throughout the annual cycle, this study focuses on the boreal winter (November–April) behavior. Initially, maps of the mean state and variance and equatorial space–time spectra of 850-hPa zonal wind and precipitation are compared with observations. Models best represent the intraseasonal space–time spectral peak in the zonal wind compared to that of precipitation. Using the phase–space representation of the multivariate principal components (PCs), the life cycle properties of the simulated MJOs are extracted, including the ability to represent how the MJO evolves from a given subphase and the associated decay time scales. On average, the MJO decay (e-folding) time scale for all models is shorter (20–29 days) than observations (31 days). All models are able to produce a leading pair of multivariate principal components that represents eastward propagation of intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies, although the fraction of the variance is smaller than observed for all models. In some cases, the dominant time scale of these PCs is outside of the 30–80-day band. Several key variables associated with the model’s MJO are investigated, including the surface latent heat flux, boundary layer (925 hPa) moisture convergence, and the vertical structure of moisture. Low-level moisture convergence ahead (east) of convection is associated with eastward propagation in most of the models. A few models are also able to simulate the gradual moistening of the lower troposphere that precedes observed MJO convection, as well as the observed geographical difference in the vertical structure of moisture associated with the MJO. The dependence of rainfall on lower tropospheric relative humidity and the fraction of rainfall that is stratiform are also discussed, including implications these diagnostics have for MJO simulation. Based on having the most realistic intraseasonal multivariate empirical orthogonal functions, principal component power spectra, equatorial eastward propagating outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), latent heat flux, low-level moisture convergence signals, and vertical structure of moisture over the Eastern Hemisphere, the superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the ECHAM4/Ocean Isopycnal Model (OPYC) show the best skill at representing the MJO. 2009-12 J. Climate 22 6413-6436 0 10.1175/2009JCLI3063.1 The ability of eight climate models to simulate the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined using diagnostics developed by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group. Although the MJO signal has been extracted throughout the annual cycle, this study focuses on the boreal winter (November–April) behavior. Initially, maps of the mean state and variance and equatorial space–time spectra of 850-hPa zonal wind and precipitation are compared with observations. Models best represent the intraseasonal space–time spectral peak in the zonal wind compared to that of precipitation. Using the phase–space representation of the multivariate principal components (PCs), the life cycle properties of the simulated MJOs are extracted, including the ability to represent how the MJO evolves from a given subphase and the associated decay time scales. On average, the MJO decay (e-folding) time scale for all models is shorter (20–29 days) than observations (31 days). All models are able to produce a leading pair of multivariate principal components that represents eastward propagation of intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies, although the fraction of the variance is smaller than observed for all models. In some cases, the dominant time scale of these PCs is outside of the 30–80-day band. Several key variables associated with the model’s MJO are investigated, including the surface latent heat flux, boundary layer (925 hPa) moisture convergence, and the vertical structure of moisture. Low-level moisture convergence ahead (east) of convection is associated with eastward propagation in most of the models. A few models are also able to simulate the gradual moistening of the lower troposphere that precedes observed MJO convection, as well as the observed geographical difference in the vertical structure of moisture associated with the MJO. The dependence of rainfall on lower tropospheric relative humidity and the fraction of rainfall that is stratiform are also discussed, including implications these diagnostics have for MJO simulation. Based on having the most realistic intraseasonal multivariate empirical orthogonal functions, principal component power spectra, equatorial eastward propagating outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), latent heat flux, low-level moisture convergence signals, and vertical structure of moisture over the Eastern Hemisphere, the superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the ECHAM4/Ocean Isopycnal Model (OPYC) show the best skill at representing the MJO. Kim D. Sperber K. R. Stern W. Waliser D. E. Kang I.S. Maloney E. Wang W. Weickmann K. M. Benedict J. Khairoutdinov M. Lee M.-I. Neale R. Suarez M. Thayer-Calder K. Zhang G. 19488 Article Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a deep, multilayered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-levels. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate liquid water path and strongly underestimate ice water path, although there is a large spread among models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate deeper Arctic mixed-phase clouds versus the shallow, single-layered mixed-phase clouds in Part I. The observed liquid-ice mass ratios were much smaller than in Part I, despite the similarity of cloud temperatures. Thus, models employing microphysics schemes with temperature-based partitioning of cloud liquid and ice masses are not able to produce results consistent with observations for both cases. Models with more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path closer to observations. Cloud-resolving models tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than single-column models. The liquid water path and cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by long-wave flux. 2009-4 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135 979-1002 0 10.1002/qj.415 Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a deep, multilayered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-levels. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate liquid water path and strongly underestimate ice water path, although there is a large spread among models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate deeper Arctic mixed-phase clouds versus the shallow, single-layered mixed-phase clouds in Part I. The observed liquid-ice mass ratios were much smaller than in Part I, despite the similarity of cloud temperatures. Thus, models employing microphysics schemes with temperature-based partitioning of cloud liquid and ice masses are not able to produce results consistent with observations for both cases. Models with more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path closer to observations. Cloud-resolving models tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than single-column models. The liquid water path and cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by long-wave flux. Klein S. A. McCoy R. B. . . . Shupe M. D. 19489 Article Short-period (1–5 min) temperature and humidity soundings up to 10-km height are retrieved from ground-based 12-channel microwave radiometer profiler (MWRP) observations. In contrast to radiosondes, the radiometric retrievals provide very high temporal resolution (1 min or less) of thermodynamic profiles, but the vertical resolution, which declines in proportion to the height above ground level, is lower. The high temporal resolution is able to resolve detailed meso-γ-scale thermodynamic and limited microphysical features of various rapidly changing mesoscale and/or hazardous weather phenomena. To illustrate the MWRP capabilities and potential benefits to research and operational activities, the authors present example radiometric retrievals from a variety of dynamic weather phenomena including upslope supercooled fog, snowfall, a complex cold front, a nocturnal bore, and a squall line accompanied by a wake low and other rapid variations in low-level water vapor and temperature. 2009-6 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 26 1057-1073 0 10.1175/2008JTECHA1150.1 Short-period (1–5 min) temperature and humidity soundings up to 10-km height are retrieved from ground-based 12-channel microwave radiometer profiler (MWRP) observations. In contrast to radiosondes, the radiometric retrievals provide very high temporal resolution (1 min or less) of thermodynamic profiles, but the vertical resolution, which declines in proportion to the height above ground level, is lower. The high temporal resolution is able to resolve detailed meso-γ-scale thermodynamic and limited microphysical features of various rapidly changing mesoscale and/or hazardous weather phenomena. To illustrate the MWRP capabilities and potential benefits to research and operational activities, the authors present example radiometric retrievals from a variety of dynamic weather phenomena including upslope supercooled fog, snowfall, a complex cold front, a nocturnal bore, and a squall line accompanied by a wake low and other rapid variations in low-level water vapor and temperature. Knupp K. R. Ware R. Cimini D. Vandenberghe F. Vivekanandan J. Westwater E. R. 19490 Article We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models. 2009-11 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9 9001-9026 0 10.5194/acp-9-9001-2009 We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models. Koch D. Schulz M. Kinne S. . . . Perlwitz J. 19491 Article Combinations of sea ice freeboard and snow depth measurements from satellite data have the potential to provide a means to derive global sea ice thickness values. However, large differences in spatial coverage and resolution between the measurements lead to uncertainties when combining the data. High-resolution airborne laser altimeter retrievals of snow-ice freeboard and passive microwave retrievals of snow depth taken in March 2006 provide insight into the spatial variability of these quantities as well as optimal methods for combining high-resolution satellite altimeter measurements with low-resolution snow depth data. The aircraft measurements show a relationship between freeboard and snow depth for thin ice allowing the development of a method for estimating sea ice thickness from satellite laser altimetry data at their full spatial resolution. This method is used to estimate snow and ice thicknesses for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from ICESat, snow depth data over first-year ice from AMSR-E, and snow depth over multiyear ice from climatological data. Due to the nonlinear dependence of heat flux on ice thickness, the impact on heat flux calculations when maintaining the full resolution of the ICESat data for ice thickness estimates is explored for typical winter conditions. Calculations of the basin-wide mean heat flux and ice growth rate using snow and ice thickness values at the ∼70 m spatial resolution of ICESat are found to be approximately one-third higher than those calculated from 25-km mean ice thickness values. 2009-10 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114 C10007 0 10.1029/2009JC005292 Combinations of sea ice freeboard and snow depth measurements from satellite data have the potential to provide a means to derive global sea ice thickness values. However, large differences in spatial coverage and resolution between the measurements lead to uncertainties when combining the data. High-resolution airborne laser altimeter retrievals of snow-ice freeboard and passive microwave retrievals of snow depth taken in March 2006 provide insight into the spatial variability of these quantities as well as optimal methods for combining high-resolution satellite altimeter measurements with low-resolution snow depth data. The aircraft measurements show a relationship between freeboard and snow depth for thin ice allowing the development of a method for estimating sea ice thickness from satellite laser altimetry data at their full spatial resolution. This method is used to estimate snow and ice thicknesses for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from ICESat, snow depth data over first-year ice from AMSR-E, and snow depth over multiyear ice from climatological data. Due to the nonlinear dependence of heat flux on ice thickness, the impact on heat flux calculations when maintaining the full resolution of the ICESat data for ice thickness estimates is explored for typical winter conditions. Calculations of the basin-wide mean heat flux and ice growth rate using snow and ice thickness values at the ∼70 m spatial resolution of ICESat are found to be approximately one-third higher than those calculated from 25-km mean ice thickness values. Kurtz N. T. Markus T. Cavalieri D. J. Sparling L. C. Krabill W. B. Gasiewski A. J. Sonntag J. G. 19492 Article Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to isolate the common modes of behavior in the daily maximum 8-h average ozone mixing ratios measured at 30 Continuous Ambient Monitoring Stations in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area during the Second Texas Air Quality Study field intensive (1 August to 15 October 2006). Three principal components suffice to explain 93% of the total variance. Nearly 84% is explained by the first component, which is attributed to changes in the “regional background” determined primarily by the large-scale winds. The second component (6%) is attributed to changes in the “local background,” that is, ozone photochemically produced in the Houston area and spatially and temporally averaged by local circulations. Finally, the third component (3.5%) is attributed to short-lived plumes containing high ozone originating from industrial areas along Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. Regional background ozone concentrations derived using the first component compare well with mean ozone concentrations measured above the Gulf of America by the tunable profiler for aerosols and ozone lidar aboard the NOAA Twin Otter. The PCA regional background values also agree well with background values derived using the lowest daily 8-h maximum method of Nielsen-Gammon et al. (2005), provided the Galveston Airport data (C34) are omitted from that analysis. The differences found when Galveston is included are caused by the sea breeze, which depresses ozone at Galveston relative to sites further inland. PCA removes the effects of this and other local circulations to obtain a regional background value representative of the greater Houston area. 2009-7 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D00F12 0 10.1029/2008JD011687 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to isolate the common modes of behavior in the daily maximum 8-h average ozone mixing ratios measured at 30 Continuous Ambient Monitoring Stations in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area during the Second Texas Air Quality Study field intensive (1 August to 15 October 2006). Three principal components suffice to explain 93% of the total variance. Nearly 84% is explained by the first component, which is attributed to changes in the “regional background” determined primarily by the large-scale winds. The second component (6%) is attributed to changes in the “local background,” that is, ozone photochemically produced in the Houston area and spatially and temporally averaged by local circulations. Finally, the third component (3.5%) is attributed to short-lived plumes containing high ozone originating from industrial areas along Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. Regional background ozone concentrations derived using the first component compare well with mean ozone concentrations measured above the Gulf of America by the tunable profiler for aerosols and ozone lidar aboard the NOAA Twin Otter. The PCA regional background values also agree well with background values derived using the lowest daily 8-h maximum method of Nielsen-Gammon et al. (2005), provided the Galveston Airport data (C34) are omitted from that analysis. The differences found when Galveston is included are caused by the sea breeze, which depresses ozone at Galveston relative to sites further inland. PCA removes the effects of this and other local circulations to obtain a regional background value representative of the greater Houston area. Langford A. O. Senff C. J. Banta R. M. Hardesty R. M. Alvarez R. J. Sandberg S. P. Darby L. S. 19493 Article Snow is an important component of the climate system and a critical storage component in the hydrologic cycle. However, in situ observations of snow distribution are sparse, and remotely sensed products are imprecise and only available at a coarse spatial scale. GPS geodesists have long recognized that snow can affect a GPS signal, but it has not been shown that a GPS receiver placed in a standard geodetic orientation can be used to measure snow depth. In this paper, it is shown that changes in snow depth can be clearly tracked in the corresponding multipath modulation of the GPS signal. Results for two spring 2009 snowstorms in Colorado show strong agreement between GPS snow depth estimates, field measurements, and nearby ultrasonic snow depth sensors. Because there are hundreds of geodetic GPS receivers operating in snowy regions of the U.S., it is possible that GPS receivers installed for plate deformation studies, surveying, and weather monitoring could be used to also estimate snow depth. 2009-9 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L17502 0 10.1029/2009GL039430 Snow is an important component of the climate system and a critical storage component in the hydrologic cycle. However, in situ observations of snow distribution are sparse, and remotely sensed products are imprecise and only available at a coarse spatial scale. GPS geodesists have long recognized that snow can affect a GPS signal, but it has not been shown that a GPS receiver placed in a standard geodetic orientation can be used to measure snow depth. In this paper, it is shown that changes in snow depth can be clearly tracked in the corresponding multipath modulation of the GPS signal. Results for two spring 2009 snowstorms in Colorado show strong agreement between GPS snow depth estimates, field measurements, and nearby ultrasonic snow depth sensors. Because there are hundreds of geodetic GPS receivers operating in snowy regions of the U.S., it is possible that GPS receivers installed for plate deformation studies, surveying, and weather monitoring could be used to also estimate snow depth. Larson K. M. Gutmann E. D. Zavorotny V. U. Braun J. Williams M. Nievinski F. G. 19494 Article Contributions of regional scale climate change research to the management of climate risks were explored at a meeting of researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in June 2007 (convened by the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Although existing knowledge is already being used to inform a wide variety of decisions in multiple contexts, there remain significant knowledge gaps that hamper effective climate-risk management, particularly at the interfaces of different spatial and temporal scales of analysis and cross-system interactions. In this Introduction we synthesize discussions of such knowledge gaps, and highlight recommendations for user-oriented research that produces and communicates information that is credible, defensible, and actionable for climate-risk management. 2009-12 Clim. Res. 40 121-131 0 10.3354/cr00832 Contributions of regional scale climate change research to the management of climate risks were explored at a meeting of researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in June 2007 (convened by the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Although existing knowledge is already being used to inform a wide variety of decisions in multiple contexts, there remain significant knowledge gaps that hamper effective climate-risk management, particularly at the interfaces of different spatial and temporal scales of analysis and cross-system interactions. In this Introduction we synthesize discussions of such knowledge gaps, and highlight recommendations for user-oriented research that produces and communicates information that is credible, defensible, and actionable for climate-risk management. Leary N. Averyt K. Hewitson B. Marengo J. A. 19495 Article Convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the South American continent are examined through the use of temporal and spatial filtering of reanalysis, satellite, and gridded rainfall data. They are most prominent from November to April, the season analyzed herein. The following two types of events are isolated: those that result from preexisting Kelvin waves over the eastern Pacific Ocean propagating into the continent, and those that apparently originate over Amazonia, forced by disturbances propagating equatorward from central and southern South America. The events with precursors in the Pacific are mainly upper-level disturbances, with almost no signal at the surface. Those events with precursors over South America, on the other hand, originate as upper-level synoptic wave trains that pass over the continent and resemble the “cold surges” documented by Garreaud and Wallace. As the wave train propagates over the Andes, it induces a southerly low-level wind that advects cold air to the north. Precipitation associated with a cold front reaches the equator a few days later and subsequently propagates eastward with the characteristics of a Kelvin wave. The structures of those waves originating over the Pacific are quite similar to those originating over South America as they propagate to eastern South America and into the Atlantic. South America Kelvin waves that originate over neither the Pacific nor the midlatitudes of South America can also be identified. In a composite sense, these form over the eastern slope of the Andes Mountains, close to the equator. There are also cases of cold surges that reach the equator yet do not form Kelvin waves. The interannual variability of the Pacific-originating events is related to sea surface temperatures in the central–eastern Pacific Ocean. When equatorial oceanic conditions are warm, there tends to be an increase in the number of disturbances that reach South America from the Pacific. 2009-1 J. Climate 22 300-315 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2340.1 Convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the South American continent are examined through the use of temporal and spatial filtering of reanalysis, satellite, and gridded rainfall data. They are most prominent from November to April, the season analyzed herein. The following two types of events are isolated: those that result from preexisting Kelvin waves over the eastern Pacific Ocean propagating into the continent, and those that apparently originate over Amazonia, forced by disturbances propagating equatorward from central and southern South America. The events with precursors in the Pacific are mainly upper-level disturbances, with almost no signal at the surface. Those events with precursors over South America, on the other hand, originate as upper-level synoptic wave trains that pass over the continent and resemble the “cold surges” documented by Garreaud and Wallace. As the wave train propagates over the Andes, it induces a southerly low-level wind that advects cold air to the north. Precipitation associated with a cold front reaches the equator a few days later and subsequently propagates eastward with the characteristics of a Kelvin wave. The structures of those waves originating over the Pacific are quite similar to those originating over South America as they propagate to eastern South America and into the Atlantic. South America Kelvin waves that originate over neither the Pacific nor the midlatitudes of South America can also be identified. In a composite sense, these form over the eastern slope of the Andes Mountains, close to the equator. There are also cases of cold surges that reach the equator yet do not form Kelvin waves. The interannual variability of the Pacific-originating events is related to sea surface temperatures in the central–eastern Pacific Ocean. When equatorial oceanic conditions are warm, there tends to be an increase in the number of disturbances that reach South America from the Pacific. Liebmann B. Kiladis G. N. Carvalho L. M. V. Jones C. Vera C. S. Bladé I. Allured D. 19496 Article This study evaluates the intraseasonal variability associated with summer precipitation over South America in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each model’s twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed. Two dominant intraseasonal bands associated with summer precipitation over South America are focused on: the 40- and the 22-day band. The results show that in the southern summer (November–April), most of the models underestimate seasonal mean precipitation over central-east Brazil, northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), while the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is shifted southward of its observed position. Most of the models capture both the 40- and 22-day band around Uruguay, but with less frequent active episodes than observed. The models also tend to underestimate the total intraseasonal (10–90 day), the 40-, and the 22-day band variances. For the 40-day band, 10 of the 14 models simulate to some extent the 3-cell pattern around South America, and 6 models reproduce its teleconnection with precipitation in the south-central Pacific, but only 1 model simulates the teleconnection with the MJO in the equatorial Pacific, and only 3 models capture its northward propagation from 50° to 32°S. For the 7 models with three-dimensional data available, only 1 model reproduces well the deep baroclinic vertical structure of the 40-day band. For the 22-day band, only 6 of the 14 models capture its northward propagation from the SACZ to the Atlantic ITCZ. It is found that models with some form of moisture convective trigger tend to produce large variances for the intraseasonal bands. 2009-9 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 2931-2954 0 10.1175/2009MWR2777.1 This study evaluates the intraseasonal variability associated with summer precipitation over South America in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each model’s twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed. Two dominant intraseasonal bands associated with summer precipitation over South America are focused on: the 40- and the 22-day band. The results show that in the southern summer (November–April), most of the models underestimate seasonal mean precipitation over central-east Brazil, northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), while the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is shifted southward of its observed position. Most of the models capture both the 40- and 22-day band around Uruguay, but with less frequent active episodes than observed. The models also tend to underestimate the total intraseasonal (10–90 day), the 40-, and the 22-day band variances. For the 40-day band, 10 of the 14 models simulate to some extent the 3-cell pattern around South America, and 6 models reproduce its teleconnection with precipitation in the south-central Pacific, but only 1 model simulates the teleconnection with the MJO in the equatorial Pacific, and only 3 models capture its northward propagation from 50° to 32°S. For the 7 models with three-dimensional data available, only 1 model reproduces well the deep baroclinic vertical structure of the 40-day band. For the 22-day band, only 6 of the 14 models capture its northward propagation from the SACZ to the Atlantic ITCZ. It is found that models with some form of moisture convective trigger tend to produce large variances for the intraseasonal bands. Lin J. L. Shinoda T. Liebmann B. Qian T. Han W. Roundy P. E. Zhou J. Zheng Y. 19497 Article Water supplies in Colorado are sensitive to climate variability. Throughout the study period (2004–2009), there was an increase in demand for climate products and climate education by water management decision makers, which we attribute to a severe drought beginning in 2002 that changed the decision makers’ perception of risk. Once decision makers recognized that they were vulnerable to water supply shortages, they sought out information and education from the Western Water Assessment (WWA). Building on relationships established prior to the 2002 drought, the WWA improved the climate literacy of water managers through enhanced interaction, which resulted in an increased use of climate information, outlooks (i.e. seasonal forecasts), and projections in water planning. In addition to the way that climate science can inform decision-making, we documented how decision makers can inform climate science of the need for additional research. In this article, we show the evolution of the use of different types of climate products and explain the connections among drought, perception of risk, climate literacy, and interactions with climate information providers. 2009-10 Clim. Res. 40 103-119 0 10.3354/cr00827 Water supplies in Colorado are sensitive to climate variability. Throughout the study period (2004–2009), there was an increase in demand for climate products and climate education by water management decision makers, which we attribute to a severe drought beginning in 2002 that changed the decision makers’ perception of risk. Once decision makers recognized that they were vulnerable to water supply shortages, they sought out information and education from the Western Water Assessment (WWA). Building on relationships established prior to the 2002 drought, the WWA improved the climate literacy of water managers through enhanced interaction, which resulted in an increased use of climate information, outlooks (i.e. seasonal forecasts), and projections in water planning. In addition to the way that climate science can inform decision-making, we documented how decision makers can inform climate science of the need for additional research. In this article, we show the evolution of the use of different types of climate products and explain the connections among drought, perception of risk, climate literacy, and interactions with climate information providers. Lowrey J. L. Ray A. J. Webb R. S. 19498 Article Momentum transport is examined in a simulated midlatitude mesoscale convective system (MCS) to investigate its contribution to MCS motion. Momentum budgets are computed using model output to quantify the role of specific processes in determining the low-level wind field in the system’s surface-based cold pool. Results show that toward the leading convective line of the MCS and near the leading edge of the cold pool, the momentum field is most strongly determined by the vertical advection of the storm-induced perturbation wind. Across the middle rear of the system, the wind field is largely a product of the pressure gradient acceleration and, to a lesser extent, the vertical advection of the background environmental (i.e., base state) wind. The relative magnitudes of the vertical advection terms in an Eulerian momentum budget suggest that, for gust-front-driven systems, downward momentum transport by the MCS is a significant driver of MCS motion and potentially severe surface winds. Results further illustrate that the contribution of momentum transport to MCS speed occurs mainly via the enhancement of the cold pool propagation speed as higher-momentum air from aloft is transported into the surface-based cold pool. 2009-10 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 3316-3338 0 10.1175/2009MWR2895.1 Momentum transport is examined in a simulated midlatitude mesoscale convective system (MCS) to investigate its contribution to MCS motion. Momentum budgets are computed using model output to quantify the role of specific processes in determining the low-level wind field in the system’s surface-based cold pool. Results show that toward the leading convective line of the MCS and near the leading edge of the cold pool, the momentum field is most strongly determined by the vertical advection of the storm-induced perturbation wind. Across the middle rear of the system, the wind field is largely a product of the pressure gradient acceleration and, to a lesser extent, the vertical advection of the background environmental (i.e., base state) wind. The relative magnitudes of the vertical advection terms in an Eulerian momentum budget suggest that, for gust-front-driven systems, downward momentum transport by the MCS is a significant driver of MCS motion and potentially severe surface winds. Results further illustrate that the contribution of momentum transport to MCS speed occurs mainly via the enhancement of the cold pool propagation speed as higher-momentum air from aloft is transported into the surface-based cold pool. Mahoney K. M. Lackmann G. M. Parker M. D. 19499 Article A method to retrieve total vertical amounts of cloud liquid and ice in stratiform precipitating systems is described. The retrievals use measurements from the vertically pointing Ka- and W-band cloud radars operated by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and auxiliary measurements from a scanning National Weather Service radar and a ground-based disdrometer. Separation between the cloud liquid and rain is based on estimations of the total attenuation of millimeter-wavelength radar signals in the liquid hydrometeor layer. Disdrometer measurements are used for the retrieval constraints. Because the liquid phase hydrometeor retrievals use only differential measurements, they are immune to the absolute radar calibration uncertainties. Estimates of the ice cloud phase are performed using empirical relations between absolute radar reflectivity and ice water content. Data from the nearby scanning weather-service radar, which operates at a lower frequency, are used to correct cloud radar measurements observed above the freezing level for attenuation caused by the layers of liquid and melting hydrometeors and also by wet radomes of cloud radars. Polarimetric and vertical Doppler measurements from ARM cloud radars provide a distinct separation between regions of liquid and ice phases, and therefore the corresponding retrievals are performed in each region separately. The applicability of the suggested method is illustrated for a stratiform precipitation event observed at the ARM Southern Great Plains facility. Expected uncertainties for retrievals of cloud liquid water path are estimated at about 200–250 g m−2 for typical rainfall rates observed in stratiform systems (3–4 mm h−1). These uncertainties increase as rainfall rate increases. The ice water path retrieval uncertainties can be as high as a factor of 2. 2009-7 J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 48 1398-1410 0 10.1175/2009JAMC2106.1 A method to retrieve total vertical amounts of cloud liquid and ice in stratiform precipitating systems is described. The retrievals use measurements from the vertically pointing Ka- and W-band cloud radars operated by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and auxiliary measurements from a scanning National Weather Service radar and a ground-based disdrometer. Separation between the cloud liquid and rain is based on estimations of the total attenuation of millimeter-wavelength radar signals in the liquid hydrometeor layer. Disdrometer measurements are used for the retrieval constraints. Because the liquid phase hydrometeor retrievals use only differential measurements, they are immune to the absolute radar calibration uncertainties. Estimates of the ice cloud phase are performed using empirical relations between absolute radar reflectivity and ice water content. Data from the nearby scanning weather-service radar, which operates at a lower frequency, are used to correct cloud radar measurements observed above the freezing level for attenuation caused by the layers of liquid and melting hydrometeors and also by wet radomes of cloud radars. Polarimetric and vertical Doppler measurements from ARM cloud radars provide a distinct separation between regions of liquid and ice phases, and therefore the corresponding retrievals are performed in each region separately. The applicability of the suggested method is illustrated for a stratiform precipitation event observed at the ARM Southern Great Plains facility. Expected uncertainties for retrievals of cloud liquid water path are estimated at about 200–250 g m−2 for typical rainfall rates observed in stratiform systems (3–4 mm h−1). These uncertainties increase as rainfall rate increases. The ice water path retrieval uncertainties can be as high as a factor of 2. Matrosov S. Y. 19500 Article A novel remote sensing approach to simultaneously retrieve cloud liquid water paths (LWP) and ice water paths (IWP) and mean rainfall rate in a vertical atmospheric column was applied for stratiform-like precipitation events observed during the warm period of 2007 at the southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The retrieval method is based on multifrequency radar measurements at W, Ka, and S bands and raindrop size distribution estimates from a ground-based impact disdrometer. The radar measurements also provide a robust separation of the liquid, mixed, and ice hydrometeor layers. Characteristic values of LWP are about 300–400 g m−2, although values up to 1000 g m−2 and higher are not uncommon. There is on average insignificant correlation between cloud LWP and rainfall rates. IWP, which represents the precipitating cloud part of the atmospheric column that is observed above the freezing level, usually significantly exceeds cloud LWP in the liquid hydrometeor layer and can reach values of approximately 104 g m−2 and even higher. On average, mean rainfall in the liquid layer, Rm, increases with an increase in ice mass observed above the melting layer, although a corresponding mean correlation coefficient between Rm and IWP is only 0.32. There is noticeable variability in IWP-Rm relations between individual events. Storm dynamics is likely to influence the correlation between cloud and rainfall parameters as inferred from simultaneous columnar retrievals. Initial estimates indicate that IWP and rainfall are stronger related for events which exhibit lower vertical variability of wind. 2009-11 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D22201 0 10.1029/2009JD012004 A novel remote sensing approach to simultaneously retrieve cloud liquid water paths (LWP) and ice water paths (IWP) and mean rainfall rate in a vertical atmospheric column was applied for stratiform-like precipitation events observed during the warm period of 2007 at the southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The retrieval method is based on multifrequency radar measurements at W, Ka, and S bands and raindrop size distribution estimates from a ground-based impact disdrometer. The radar measurements also provide a robust separation of the liquid, mixed, and ice hydrometeor layers. Characteristic values of LWP are about 300–400 g m−2, although values up to 1000 g m−2 and higher are not uncommon. There is on average insignificant correlation between cloud LWP and rainfall rates. IWP, which represents the precipitating cloud part of the atmospheric column that is observed above the freezing level, usually significantly exceeds cloud LWP in the liquid hydrometeor layer and can reach values of approximately 104 g m−2 and even higher. On average, mean rainfall in the liquid layer, Rm, increases with an increase in ice mass observed above the melting layer, although a corresponding mean correlation coefficient between Rm and IWP is only 0.32. There is noticeable variability in IWP-Rm relations between individual events. Storm dynamics is likely to influence the correlation between cloud and rainfall parameters as inferred from simultaneous columnar retrievals. Initial estimates indicate that IWP and rainfall are stronger related for events which exhibit lower vertical variability of wind. Matrosov S. Y. 19501 Article The effects of multiple scattering on larger precipitating hydrometers have an influence on measurements of the spaceborne W-band (94 GHz) CloudSat radar. This study presents initial quantitative estimates of these effects in “dry” snow using radiative transfer calculations for appropriate snowfall models. It is shown that these effects become significant (i.e., greater than approximately 1 dB) when snowfall radar reflectivity factors are greater than about 10–15 dBZ. Reflectivity enhancement due to multiple scattering can reach 4–5 dB in heavier stratiform snowfalls. Multiple scattering effects counteract signal attenuation, so the observed CloudSat reflectivity factors in snowfall could be relatively close to the values that would be observed in the case of single scattering and the absence of attenuation. 2009-6 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L12806 0 10.1029/2009GL038704 The effects of multiple scattering on larger precipitating hydrometers have an influence on measurements of the spaceborne W-band (94 GHz) CloudSat radar. This study presents initial quantitative estimates of these effects in “dry” snow using radiative transfer calculations for appropriate snowfall models. It is shown that these effects become significant (i.e., greater than approximately 1 dB) when snowfall radar reflectivity factors are greater than about 10–15 dBZ. Reflectivity enhancement due to multiple scattering can reach 4–5 dB in heavier stratiform snowfalls. Multiple scattering effects counteract signal attenuation, so the observed CloudSat reflectivity factors in snowfall could be relatively close to the values that would be observed in the case of single scattering and the absence of attenuation. Matrosov S. Y. Battaglia A. 19502 Article Realistic aggregate snowflake models and experimental snowflake size distribution parameters are used to derive X-band power-law relations between the equivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze and the liquid equivalent snowfall precipitation rate S (Ze = ASB). There is significant variability in coefficients of these relations caused by uncertainties in the snowflake bulk densities (as defined by the mass–size relationships), fall velocities, and particle size distribution parameters. The variability in snowflake parameters results in differing Ze–S relations that provide more than a factor of 2 difference in precipitation rate and liquid equivalent accumulation estimates for typical reflectivity values observed in snowfall (20–30 dBZ). Characteristic values of the exponent B in the derived for dry snowfall relations were generally in the range 1.3–1.55 (when Ze is in mm6 m−3 and S is in mm h−1). The coefficient A exhibited stronger variability and varied in the range from about 30 (for aircraft-based size distributions and smaller density particles) to about 140 (for surface-based size distributions). The non-Rayleigh scattering effects at X band result in diminishing of both A and B, as compared to the relations for longer wavelength radars. The snowflake shape and orientation also influences its backscatter properties, but to a lesser extent compared to the particle bulk density. The derived relations were primarily obtained for snowfall consisting of dry aggregate snowflakes. They were applied to the X-band radar measurements during observations of wintertime storms. For approximately collocated measurements, the in situ estimates of snowfall accumulations were generally within the range of radar-derived values when the coefficient A was around 100–120. 2009-11 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 26 2324-2339 0 10.1175/2009JTECHA1238.1 Realistic aggregate snowflake models and experimental snowflake size distribution parameters are used to derive X-band power-law relations between the equivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze and the liquid equivalent snowfall precipitation rate S (Ze = ASB). There is significant variability in coefficients of these relations caused by uncertainties in the snowflake bulk densities (as defined by the mass–size relationships), fall velocities, and particle size distribution parameters. The variability in snowflake parameters results in differing Ze–S relations that provide more than a factor of 2 difference in precipitation rate and liquid equivalent accumulation estimates for typical reflectivity values observed in snowfall (20–30 dBZ). Characteristic values of the exponent B in the derived for dry snowfall relations were generally in the range 1.3–1.55 (when Ze is in mm6 m−3 and S is in mm h−1). The coefficient A exhibited stronger variability and varied in the range from about 30 (for aircraft-based size distributions and smaller density particles) to about 140 (for surface-based size distributions). The non-Rayleigh scattering effects at X band result in diminishing of both A and B, as compared to the relations for longer wavelength radars. The snowflake shape and orientation also influences its backscatter properties, but to a lesser extent compared to the particle bulk density. The derived relations were primarily obtained for snowfall consisting of dry aggregate snowflakes. They were applied to the X-band radar measurements during observations of wintertime storms. For approximately collocated measurements, the in situ estimates of snowfall accumulations were generally within the range of radar-derived values when the coefficient A was around 100–120. Matrosov S. Y. Campbell C. Kingsmill D. E. Sukovich E. M. 19503 Article Two cloud models currently in use in propagation and remote sensing simulations in the presence of nonprecipitating clouds were analyzed. A new cloud model is also proposed: a modification of a humidity threshold to better identify clouds is suggested, as is a new cloud density function for computing cloud liquid and ice content within a cloud. The performances of the threshold functions were examined at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Southern Great Plaints (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA, by using radiosonde and ceilometer data. The new threshold showed an improvement in the cloud detection (15%) and a reduction of false cloud identification in clear-sky conditions (26%). Next, the cloud density models were evaluated in the brightness temperature (Tb) domain, by comparing simulated Tb values in cloudy conditions with those measured by dual-channel microwave radiometers at several ARM sites. The new model provided good results in comparison with the radiometer measurements, with overall root mean square (RMS) differences of 3.10 K, reducing the RMS by about 16% with respect to the best of the other models. Improvements can be noticed in particular at SGP (20%), and in the tropics (37%). 2009-3 Radio Sci. 44 RS2005 0 10.1029/2008RS003876 Two cloud models currently in use in propagation and remote sensing simulations in the presence of nonprecipitating clouds were analyzed. A new cloud model is also proposed: a modification of a humidity threshold to better identify clouds is suggested, as is a new cloud density function for computing cloud liquid and ice content within a cloud. The performances of the threshold functions were examined at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Southern Great Plaints (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA, by using radiosonde and ceilometer data. The new threshold showed an improvement in the cloud detection (15%) and a reduction of false cloud identification in clear-sky conditions (26%). Next, the cloud density models were evaluated in the brightness temperature (Tb) domain, by comparing simulated Tb values in cloudy conditions with those measured by dual-channel microwave radiometers at several ARM sites. The new model provided good results in comparison with the radiometer measurements, with overall root mean square (RMS) differences of 3.10 K, reducing the RMS by about 16% with respect to the best of the other models. Improvements can be noticed in particular at SGP (20%), and in the tropics (37%). Mattioli V. Basili P. Bonafoni S. Ciotti P. Westwater E. R. 19504 Article Forecasts of ozone (O3) and particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 μm, PM2.5) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during August and September of 2006 (49 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network throughout eastern Texas and adjoining states. Ensemble O3 and PM2.5 forecasts created by combining the seven separate forecasts with equal weighting, and simple bias-corrected forecasts, are also evaluated in terms of standard statistical measures, threshold statistics, and variance analysis. For O3 the models and ensemble generally show statistical skill relative to persistence for the entire region, but fail to predict high-O3 events in the Houston region. For PM2.5, none of the models, or ensemble, shows statistical skill, and all but one model have significant low bias. Comprehensive comparisons with the full suite of chemical and aerosol measurements collected aboard the NOAA WP-3 aircraft during the summer 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study and the Gulf of America Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (TexAQS II/GoMACCS) field study are performed to help diagnose sources of model bias at the surface. Aircraft flights specifically designed for sampling of Houston and Dallas urban plumes are used to determine model and observed upwind or background biases, and downwind excess concentrations that are used to infer relative emission rates. Relative emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI-99) version 3 emissions inventory (used in two of the model forecasts) are evaluated on the basis of comparisons between observed and model concentration difference ratios. Model comparisons demonstrate that concentration difference ratios yield a reasonably accurate measure (within 25%) of relative input emissions. Boundary layer height and wind data are combined with the observed up-wind and downwind concentration differences to estimate absolute emissions. When the NEI-99 inventory is modified to include observed NOy emissions from continuous monitors and expected NOx decreases from mobile sources between 1999 and 2006, good agreement is found with those derived from the observations for both Houston and Dallas. However, the emission inventories consistently overpredict the ratio of CO to NOy. The ratios of ethylene and aromatics to NOy are reasonably consistent with observations over Dallas, but are significantly underpredicted for Houston. Excess ratios of PM2.5 to NOy reasonably match observations for most models but the organic carbon fraction of PM2.5 is significantly underpredicted, pointing to compensating error between secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and primary emissions within the models' photochemistry and emissions. Rapid SOA formation associated with both Houston and Dallas is inferred to occur within 1 to 3 h downwind of the urban centers, and none of the models reproduce this feature. 2009-6 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D00F11 0 10.1029/2008JD011697 Forecasts of ozone (O3) and particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 μm, PM2.5) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during August and September of 2006 (49 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network throughout eastern Texas and adjoining states. Ensemble O3 and PM2.5 forecasts created by combining the seven separate forecasts with equal weighting, and simple bias-corrected forecasts, are also evaluated in terms of standard statistical measures, threshold statistics, and variance analysis. For O3 the models and ensemble generally show statistical skill relative to persistence for the entire region, but fail to predict high-O3 events in the Houston region. For PM2.5, none of the models, or ensemble, shows statistical skill, and all but one model have significant low bias. Comprehensive comparisons with the full suite of chemical and aerosol measurements collected aboard the NOAA WP-3 aircraft during the summer 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study and the Gulf of America Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (TexAQS II/GoMACCS) field study are performed to help diagnose sources of model bias at the surface. Aircraft flights specifically designed for sampling of Houston and Dallas urban plumes are used to determine model and observed upwind or background biases, and downwind excess concentrations that are used to infer relative emission rates. Relative emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI-99) version 3 emissions inventory (used in two of the model forecasts) are evaluated on the basis of comparisons between observed and model concentration difference ratios. Model comparisons demonstrate that concentration difference ratios yield a reasonably accurate measure (within 25%) of relative input emissions. Boundary layer height and wind data are combined with the observed up-wind and downwind concentration differences to estimate absolute emissions. When the NEI-99 inventory is modified to include observed NOy emissions from continuous monitors and expected NOx decreases from mobile sources between 1999 and 2006, good agreement is found with those derived from the observations for both Houston and Dallas. However, the emission inventories consistently overpredict the ratio of CO to NOy. The ratios of ethylene and aromatics to NOy are reasonably consistent with observations over Dallas, but are significantly underpredicted for Houston. Excess ratios of PM2.5 to NOy reasonably match observations for most models but the organic carbon fraction of PM2.5 is significantly underpredicted, pointing to compensating error between secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and primary emissions within the models' photochemistry and emissions. Rapid SOA formation associated with both Houston and Dallas is inferred to occur within 1 to 3 h downwind of the urban centers, and none of the models reproduce this feature. McKeen S. Grell G. Peckham S. Wilczak J. M. Djalalova I. 19505 Article A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr. 2009-10 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90 1467-1485 0 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1 A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr. Meehl G. A. Goddard L. Murphy J. Stouffer R. J. Boer G. Danabasoglu G. Dixon K. Giorgetta M. A. Greene A. M. Hawkins E. Hegerl G. Karoly D. Keenlyside N. Kimoto M. Kirtman B. Navarra A. Pulwarty R. S. Smith D. Stammer D. Stockdale T. 19506 Article Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a deep, multilayered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-levels. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate liquid water path and strongly underestimate ice water path, although there is a large spread among models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate deeper Arctic mixed-phase clouds versus the shallow, single-layered mixed-phase clouds in Part I. The observed liquid-ice mass ratios were much smaller than in Part I, despite the similarity of cloud temperatures. Thus, models employing microphysics schemes with temperature-based partitioning of cloud liquid and ice masses are not able to produce results consistent with observations for both cases. Models with more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path closer to observations. Cloud-resolving models tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than single-column models. The liquid water path and cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by long-wave flux. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society 2009-4 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135 1003-1019 0 10.1002/qj.415 Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a deep, multilayered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-levels. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate liquid water path and strongly underestimate ice water path, although there is a large spread among models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate deeper Arctic mixed-phase clouds versus the shallow, single-layered mixed-phase clouds in Part I. The observed liquid-ice mass ratios were much smaller than in Part I, despite the similarity of cloud temperatures. Thus, models employing microphysics schemes with temperature-based partitioning of cloud liquid and ice masses are not able to produce results consistent with observations for both cases. Models with more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path closer to observations. Cloud-resolving models tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than single-column models. The liquid water path and cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by long-wave flux. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Morrison H. McCoy R. B. . . . Shupe M. D. 19507 Article The skill of quantitative precipitation forecasts is poor, especially for extreme events. This paper describes a new tool that combines wind observations aloft (from wind profiling radars) with vertically integrated water vapour (IWV) measurements derived from global positioning system (GPS) receivers to estimate the bulk transport of water vapour. This transport strongly influences precipitation enhancement by mountains. Based on earlier research, a controlling wind layer is defined, which has maximum correlation between the horizontal component of the wind directed upslope at the coast and the rainfall measured downwind in the mountains. The altitude of the maximum correlation (∼ 1 km above sea level) often corresponds to the altitude of the low-level jet that typically resides in the region of enhanced water vapour transport ahead of an approaching cyclone's cold front (i.e. in the atmospheric river portion of the storm). The wind at this level usually differs from the wind at the surface, pointing to the need for wind measurements aloft. The upslope wind in the controlling layer is then combined with the IWV measurement to calculate hourly, layer-mean, bulk water vapour transport. Case studies and four winters of data, including rain-gauge networks, demonstrate the close relationship between bulk water vapour transport and mountain precipitation. For example, heavy rainfall capable of generating flooding (i.e. ≥10 mm/h) occurs at the mountain site almost exclusively when coastal observations of IWV and upslope flow exceed 2 cm and 12·5 m/s, respectively (i.e. the bulk water vapour transport surpasses 25 m/s cm). These results are integrated into a prototype real-time diagnostic tool that has the potential to improve short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts in coastal mountains. 2009-4 P. I. Civil Eng. Wat. M. 162 83-94 0 10.1680/wama.2009.162.2.83 The skill of quantitative precipitation forecasts is poor, especially for extreme events. This paper describes a new tool that combines wind observations aloft (from wind profiling radars) with vertically integrated water vapour (IWV) measurements derived from global positioning system (GPS) receivers to estimate the bulk transport of water vapour. This transport strongly influences precipitation enhancement by mountains. Based on earlier research, a controlling wind layer is defined, which has maximum correlation between the horizontal component of the wind directed upslope at the coast and the rainfall measured downwind in the mountains. The altitude of the maximum correlation (∼ 1 km above sea level) often corresponds to the altitude of the low-level jet that typically resides in the region of enhanced water vapour transport ahead of an approaching cyclone's cold front (i.e. in the atmospheric river portion of the storm). The wind at this level usually differs from the wind at the surface, pointing to the need for wind measurements aloft. The upslope wind in the controlling layer is then combined with the IWV measurement to calculate hourly, layer-mean, bulk water vapour transport. Case studies and four winters of data, including rain-gauge networks, demonstrate the close relationship between bulk water vapour transport and mountain precipitation. For example, heavy rainfall capable of generating flooding (i.e. ≥10 mm/h) occurs at the mountain site almost exclusively when coastal observations of IWV and upslope flow exceed 2 cm and 12·5 m/s, respectively (i.e. the bulk water vapour transport surpasses 25 m/s cm). These results are integrated into a prototype real-time diagnostic tool that has the potential to improve short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts in coastal mountains. Neiman P. J. White A. B. Ralph F. M. Gottas D. J. Gutman S. I. 19508 Article This paper develops a technique for retrieving snowflake size distributions (SSDs) from a vertically pointing 915-MHz vertical profiler. Drop size distributions (DSDs) have been retrieved from 915-MHz profilers for several years using least squares minimization to determine the best-fit DSD to the observed Doppler spectra. This same premise is used to attempt the retrieval of SSDs. A nonlinear search, the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method, is used to search the physically realistic solution space and arrive at a best-fit SSD from the Doppler spectra of the profiler. The best fit is assumed to be the minimum of the squared difference of the log of the observed and modeled spectrum power over the precipitation portion of the spectrum. A snowflake video imager (SVI) disdrometer was collocated with the profiler and provided surface estimates of the SSDs. The SVI also provided estimates of crystal type, which is critical in attempting to estimate the density–size relationship. A method to vary the density–size relationship during the event was developed as well. This was necessary to correctly scale the SVI SSDs for comparison to the profiler-estimated distributions. Five events were examined for this study, and good overall agreement was found between the profiler and SVI for the lowest profiler gate (225 m AGL). Vertical profiles of SSDs were also produced and appear to be physically reasonable. Uncertainty estimates using simulated Doppler spectra show that the retrieval uncertainties are larger than that for rainfall and can approach and exceed 100% for situations with large spectral broadening as a result of atmospheric turbulence. The larger uncertainties are attributed to the lack of unique Doppler spectra for quite different SSDs, resulting in a less well-behaved solution space than that of rainfall retrievals. 2009-2 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 26 180-199 0 10.1175/2008JTECHA1105.1 This paper develops a technique for retrieving snowflake size distributions (SSDs) from a vertically pointing 915-MHz vertical profiler. Drop size distributions (DSDs) have been retrieved from 915-MHz profilers for several years using least squares minimization to determine the best-fit DSD to the observed Doppler spectra. This same premise is used to attempt the retrieval of SSDs. A nonlinear search, the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method, is used to search the physically realistic solution space and arrive at a best-fit SSD from the Doppler spectra of the profiler. The best fit is assumed to be the minimum of the squared difference of the log of the observed and modeled spectrum power over the precipitation portion of the spectrum. A snowflake video imager (SVI) disdrometer was collocated with the profiler and provided surface estimates of the SSDs. The SVI also provided estimates of crystal type, which is critical in attempting to estimate the density–size relationship. A method to vary the density–size relationship during the event was developed as well. This was necessary to correctly scale the SVI SSDs for comparison to the profiler-estimated distributions. Five events were examined for this study, and good overall agreement was found between the profiler and SVI for the lowest profiler gate (225 m AGL). Vertical profiles of SSDs were also produced and appear to be physically reasonable. Uncertainty estimates using simulated Doppler spectra show that the retrieval uncertainties are larger than that for rainfall and can approach and exceed 100% for situations with large spectral broadening as a result of atmospheric turbulence. The larger uncertainties are attributed to the lack of unique Doppler spectra for quite different SSDs, resulting in a less well-behaved solution space than that of rainfall retrievals. Newman A. J. Kucera P. A. Williams C. R. 19509 Article The effect of air–sea coupling on tropical climate variability is investigated in a coupled linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the simultaneous and 6-day lag covariances of observed 7-day running mean departures from the annual cycle. The model predicts the covariances at all other lags. The predicted and observed lag covariances, as well as the associated power spectra, are generally found to agree within sampling uncertainty. This validates the LIM’s basic premise that beyond daily time scales, the evolution of tropical atmospheric and oceanic anomalies is effectively linear and stochastically driven. It also justifies a linear diagnosis of air–sea coupling in the system. The results show that air–sea coupling has a very small effect on subseasonal atmospheric variability. It has much larger effects on longer-term variability, in both the atmosphere and the ocean, including greatly increasing the amplitude of ENSO and lengthening its dominant period from 2 to 4 years. Consistent with these results, the eigenvectors of the system’s dynamical evolution operator also separate into two distinct, but nonorthogonal, subspaces: one governing the nearly uncoupled subseasonal dynamics and the other governing the strongly coupled longer-term dynamics. These subspaces arise naturally from the LIM analysis; no bandpass frequency filtering need be applied. One implication of this remarkably clean separation of the uncoupled and coupled dynamics is that GCM errors in anomalous tropical air–sea coupling may cause substantial errors on interannual and longer time scales but probably not on the subseasonal scales associated with the MJO. 2009-6 J. Climate 22 2958-2977 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2659.1 The effect of air–sea coupling on tropical climate variability is investigated in a coupled linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the simultaneous and 6-day lag covariances of observed 7-day running mean departures from the annual cycle. The model predicts the covariances at all other lags. The predicted and observed lag covariances, as well as the associated power spectra, are generally found to agree within sampling uncertainty. This validates the LIM’s basic premise that beyond daily time scales, the evolution of tropical atmospheric and oceanic anomalies is effectively linear and stochastically driven. It also justifies a linear diagnosis of air–sea coupling in the system. The results show that air–sea coupling has a very small effect on subseasonal atmospheric variability. It has much larger effects on longer-term variability, in both the atmosphere and the ocean, including greatly increasing the amplitude of ENSO and lengthening its dominant period from 2 to 4 years. Consistent with these results, the eigenvectors of the system’s dynamical evolution operator also separate into two distinct, but nonorthogonal, subspaces: one governing the nearly uncoupled subseasonal dynamics and the other governing the strongly coupled longer-term dynamics. These subspaces arise naturally from the LIM analysis; no bandpass frequency filtering need be applied. One implication of this remarkably clean separation of the uncoupled and coupled dynamics is that GCM errors in anomalous tropical air–sea coupling may cause substantial errors on interannual and longer time scales but probably not on the subseasonal scales associated with the MJO. Newman M. Sardeshmukh P. D. Penland M. C. 19510 Article Using the narrow-angle and Markov approximations, a formula for the transverse-longitudinal coherence function of a sound field propagating in a turbulent atmosphere with temperature and wind velocity fluctuations is derived. This function, which applies to observation points that are arbitrarily located in space, generalizes the transverse coherence function (coherence when the observation points are in a plane perpendicular to the sound propagation path), which has been studied extensively. The new result is expressed in terms of the transverse coherence function and the extinction coefficient of the mean sound field. The transverse-longitudinal coherence function of a plane sound wave is then calculated and studied in detail for the Gaussian and von Kármán spectra of temperature and wind velocity fluctuations. It is shown, for relatively small propagation distances, that the magnitude of the coherence function decreases in the longitudinal direction but remains almost constant in the transverse direction. On the other hand, for moderate and large propagation distances, the magnitude of the coherence decreases faster in the transverse direction than in the longitudinal. For some parameters of the problem, the coherence function has relatively large local maxima and minima as the transverse and longitudinal coordinates are varied. With small modifications, many results obtained in the paper can be applied to studies of electromagnetic wave propagation in a turbulent atmosphere. 2009-10 Waves Random Complex Media 19 670-691 0 10.1080/17455030903038504 Using the narrow-angle and Markov approximations, a formula for the transverse-longitudinal coherence function of a sound field propagating in a turbulent atmosphere with temperature and wind velocity fluctuations is derived. This function, which applies to observation points that are arbitrarily located in space, generalizes the transverse coherence function (coherence when the observation points are in a plane perpendicular to the sound propagation path), which has been studied extensively. The new result is expressed in terms of the transverse coherence function and the extinction coefficient of the mean sound field. The transverse-longitudinal coherence function of a plane sound wave is then calculated and studied in detail for the Gaussian and von Kármán spectra of temperature and wind velocity fluctuations. It is shown, for relatively small propagation distances, that the magnitude of the coherence function decreases in the longitudinal direction but remains almost constant in the transverse direction. On the other hand, for moderate and large propagation distances, the magnitude of the coherence decreases faster in the transverse direction than in the longitudinal. For some parameters of the problem, the coherence function has relatively large local maxima and minima as the transverse and longitudinal coordinates are varied. With small modifications, many results obtained in the paper can be applied to studies of electromagnetic wave propagation in a turbulent atmosphere. Ostashev V. E. Collier S. L. Wilson D. K. 19511 Article Acoustic tomography of the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) is based on measurements of the travel times of sound propagation between sources and receivers which constitute a tomography array. Then, the temperature and wind velocity fields inside the tomographic volume or area are reconstructed using different inverse algorithms. Improved knowledge of these fields is important in many practical applications. Tomography has certain advantages in comparison with currently used instrumentation for measurement of the temperature and wind velocity. In this paper, a short historical overview of acoustic tomography of the atmosphere is presented. The main emphasis is on recent progress in acoustic tomography of the ASL. The tomography arrays that have been used so far are discussed. Inverse algorithms for reconstruction of the temperature and wind velocity fields from the travel times are reviewed. Some results in numerical simulations of acoustic tomography of the ASL and reconstruction of the turbulence fields in tomography experiments are presented and discussed. 2009-4 Meteorol. Z. 18 125-133 0 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0364 Acoustic tomography of the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) is based on measurements of the travel times of sound propagation between sources and receivers which constitute a tomography array. Then, the temperature and wind velocity fields inside the tomographic volume or area are reconstructed using different inverse algorithms. Improved knowledge of these fields is important in many practical applications. Tomography has certain advantages in comparison with currently used instrumentation for measurement of the temperature and wind velocity. In this paper, a short historical overview of acoustic tomography of the atmosphere is presented. The main emphasis is on recent progress in acoustic tomography of the ASL. The tomography arrays that have been used so far are discussed. Inverse algorithms for reconstruction of the temperature and wind velocity fields from the travel times are reviewed. Some results in numerical simulations of acoustic tomography of the ASL and reconstruction of the turbulence fields in tomography experiments are presented and discussed. Ostashev V. E. Vecherin S. N. Wilson D. K. Ziemann A. Goedecke G. H. 19512 Article The material of the correlated report delivered at the 18th International Symposium on Nonlinear Acoustics (ISNA-18) in July 2008 (Stockholm, Sweden) [1] is presented in a more comprehensive form [1]. These results have also been partially reported on in the lectures given at the 12th and 13th “Nonlinear Waves“ schools in Nizhni Novgorod [2, 3]. The aim of the paper is to briefly consider the directions of the development of nonlinear acoustics and its successes which have been at the center of attention lately. 2009-11 Acoust. Phys. 55 715-721 0 10.1134/S1063771009060049 The material of the correlated report delivered at the 18th International Symposium on Nonlinear Acoustics (ISNA-18) in July 2008 (Stockholm, Sweden) [1] is presented in a more comprehensive form [1]. These results have also been partially reported on in the lectures given at the 12th and 13th “Nonlinear Waves“ schools in Nizhni Novgorod [2, 3]. The aim of the paper is to briefly consider the directions of the development of nonlinear acoustics and its successes which have been at the center of attention lately. Ostrovsky L. A. Rudenko O. V. 19513 Article This paper documents the development of nocturnal flows in the wide open Phoenix, Arizona (U.S.A) valley (30 km × 100 km) that is bordered by a large nearly flat plain to the west and high mountains to the north and east. Local thermally driven winds concomitant with the absence of significant synoptic pressure gradients dominate typical winter conditions in the Phoenix valley. The purpose of the Phoenix Air Flow Experiment (PAFEX-1) was to study the development of thermally driven flows during the evening transition in a sloping valley and describe the general pattern of transport and dispersion of contaminants during transition periods and at night. Measurements were made using a tethered balloon, sonic anemometer, balloon-based aerosol sampler, radiation sensors, cup anemometers, thermistors and humidity sensors in conjunction with data collected from 44 standard meteorological stations located throughout the valley. Over the period of 15 days in January and February 1998 the general diurnal flow patterns were repeatable, but varied substantially around the valley. This paper focuses on a case study of the evening transition, nocturnal circulation and morning breakdown of the nocturnal circulation on the night of 31 January and morning of 1 February. Central valley measurements were consistent with the notion that the evening transition is associated with a moving front, followed by intense mixing and the movement of the front to establish down-valley winds. Flows originating from different slopes led to the arrival of fronts at the various measurement locations at different times. These flows intrude into the valley and interact with each other, often causing multi-layered vertical structure. The intrusions respond to the evolving stratification and cause striking variability of these layers, for example, periodic wind and temperature disturbances corresponding to the arrival of new intrusive fronts. The evolution of the boundary layer was found to have a direct bearing on the pollution concentrations in the Phoenix air shed. 2009-2 Meteorol. Z. 18 85-100 0 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/362 This paper documents the development of nocturnal flows in the wide open Phoenix, Arizona (U.S.A) valley (30 km × 100 km) that is bordered by a large nearly flat plain to the west and high mountains to the north and east. Local thermally driven winds concomitant with the absence of significant synoptic pressure gradients dominate typical winter conditions in the Phoenix valley. The purpose of the Phoenix Air Flow Experiment (PAFEX-1) was to study the development of thermally driven flows during the evening transition in a sloping valley and describe the general pattern of transport and dispersion of contaminants during transition periods and at night. Measurements were made using a tethered balloon, sonic anemometer, balloon-based aerosol sampler, radiation sensors, cup anemometers, thermistors and humidity sensors in conjunction with data collected from 44 standard meteorological stations located throughout the valley. Over the period of 15 days in January and February 1998 the general diurnal flow patterns were repeatable, but varied substantially around the valley. This paper focuses on a case study of the evening transition, nocturnal circulation and morning breakdown of the nocturnal circulation on the night of 31 January and morning of 1 February. Central valley measurements were consistent with the notion that the evening transition is associated with a moving front, followed by intense mixing and the movement of the front to establish down-valley winds. Flows originating from different slopes led to the arrival of fronts at the various measurement locations at different times. These flows intrude into the valley and interact with each other, often causing multi-layered vertical structure. The intrusions respond to the evolving stratification and cause striking variability of these layers, for example, periodic wind and temperature disturbances corresponding to the arrival of new intrusive fronts. The evolution of the boundary layer was found to have a direct bearing on the pollution concentrations in the Phoenix air shed. Pardyjak E. R. Fernando J. S. Harindra J. S. Hunt J. C. R. Grachev A. A. 19514 Article A precipitous drop in North American temperature in 2008, commingled with a decade-long fall in global mean temperatures, are generating opinions contrary to the inferences drawn from the science of climate change. We use an extensive suite of model simulations and appraise factors contributing to 2008 temperature conditions over North America. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region's temperatures, but that it was overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally-induced cooling resulting from the continent's sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North American warming is likely to resume in coming years, and that climate is unlikely embarking upon a prolonged cooling. 2009-12 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L23706 0 10.1029/2009GL041188 A precipitous drop in North American temperature in 2008, commingled with a decade-long fall in global mean temperatures, are generating opinions contrary to the inferences drawn from the science of climate change. We use an extensive suite of model simulations and appraise factors contributing to 2008 temperature conditions over North America. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic impact in 2008 was to warm the region's temperatures, but that it was overwhelmed by a particularly strong bout of naturally-induced cooling resulting from the continent's sensitivity to widespread coolness of the tropical and northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The implication is that the pace of North American warming is likely to resume in coming years, and that climate is unlikely embarking upon a prolonged cooling. Perlwitz J. Hoerling M. P. Eischeid J. K. Xu Taiyi T. Kumar A. 19515 Article This paper examines the tradeoffs between computational cost and accuracy for two new state-of-the-art codes for computing three-dimensional radiative transfer: a community Monte Carlo model and a parallel implementation of the Spherical Harmonics Discrete Ordinate Method (SHDOM). Both codes are described and algorithmic choices are elaborated. Two prototype problems are considered: a domain filled with stratocumulus clouds and another containing scattered shallow cumulus, absorbing aerosols, and molecular scatterers. Calculations are performed for a range of resolutions and the relationships between accuracy and computational cost, measured by memory use and time to solution, are compared. Monte Carlo accuracy depends primarily on the number of trajectories used in the integration. Monte Carlo estimates of intensity are computationally expensive and may be subject to large sampling noise from highly peaked phase functions. This noise can be decreased using a range of variance reduction techniques, but these techniques can compromise the excellent agreement between the true error and estimates obtained from unbiased calculations. SHDOM accuracy is controlled by both spatial and angular resolution; different output fields are sensitive to different aspects of this resolution, so the optimum accuracy parameters depend on which quantities are desired as well as on the characteristics of the problem being solved. The accuracy of SHDOM must be assessed through convergence tests and all results from unconverged solutions may be biased. SHDOM is more efficient (i.e., has lower error for a given computational cost) than Monte Carlo when computing pixel-by-pixel upwelling fluxes in the cumulus scene, whereas Monte Carlo is more efficient in computing flux divergence and downwelling flux in the stratocumulus scene, especially at higher accuracies. The two models are comparable for downwelling flux and flux divergence in cumulus and upwelling flux in stratocumulus. SHDOM is substantially more efficient when computing pixel-by-pixel intensity in multiple directions; the models are comparable when computing domain-average intensities. In some cases memory use, rather than computation time, may limit the resolution of SHDOM calculations. 2009-10 J. Atmos. Sci. 66 3131-3146 0 10.1175/2009JAS3137.1 This paper examines the tradeoffs between computational cost and accuracy for two new state-of-the-art codes for computing three-dimensional radiative transfer: a community Monte Carlo model and a parallel implementation of the Spherical Harmonics Discrete Ordinate Method (SHDOM). Both codes are described and algorithmic choices are elaborated. Two prototype problems are considered: a domain filled with stratocumulus clouds and another containing scattered shallow cumulus, absorbing aerosols, and molecular scatterers. Calculations are performed for a range of resolutions and the relationships between accuracy and computational cost, measured by memory use and time to solution, are compared. Monte Carlo accuracy depends primarily on the number of trajectories used in the integration. Monte Carlo estimates of intensity are computationally expensive and may be subject to large sampling noise from highly peaked phase functions. This noise can be decreased using a range of variance reduction techniques, but these techniques can compromise the excellent agreement between the true error and estimates obtained from unbiased calculations. SHDOM accuracy is controlled by both spatial and angular resolution; different output fields are sensitive to different aspects of this resolution, so the optimum accuracy parameters depend on which quantities are desired as well as on the characteristics of the problem being solved. The accuracy of SHDOM must be assessed through convergence tests and all results from unconverged solutions may be biased. SHDOM is more efficient (i.e., has lower error for a given computational cost) than Monte Carlo when computing pixel-by-pixel upwelling fluxes in the cumulus scene, whereas Monte Carlo is more efficient in computing flux divergence and downwelling flux in the stratocumulus scene, especially at higher accuracies. The two models are comparable for downwelling flux and flux divergence in cumulus and upwelling flux in stratocumulus. SHDOM is substantially more efficient when computing pixel-by-pixel intensity in multiple directions; the models are comparable when computing domain-average intensities. In some cases memory use, rather than computation time, may limit the resolution of SHDOM calculations. Pincus R. Evans K. F. 19516 Article Population growth and a changing climate will tax the future reliability of the Colorado River water supply. Using a heuristic model, we assess the annual risk to the Colorado River water supply for 2008–2057. Projected demand growth superimposed upon historical climate variability results in only a small probability of annual reservoir depletion through 2057. In contrast, a scenario of 20% reduction in the annual Colorado River flow due to climate change by 2057 results in a near tenfold increase in the probability of annual reservoir depletion by 2057. However, our analysis suggests that flexibility in current management practices could mitigate some of the increased risk due to climate change–induced reductions in flows. 2009-8 Water Resour. Res. 45 W08201 0 10.1029/2008WR007652 Population growth and a changing climate will tax the future reliability of the Colorado River water supply. Using a heuristic model, we assess the annual risk to the Colorado River water supply for 2008–2057. Projected demand growth superimposed upon historical climate variability results in only a small probability of annual reservoir depletion through 2057. In contrast, a scenario of 20% reduction in the annual Colorado River flow due to climate change by 2057 results in a near tenfold increase in the probability of annual reservoir depletion by 2057. However, our analysis suggests that flexibility in current management practices could mitigate some of the increased risk due to climate change–induced reductions in flows. Rajagopalan B. Nowak K. Prairie J. Hoerling M. P. Harding B. Barsugli J. J. Ray A. J. Udall B. 19517 Article Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over-allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree-ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree-ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in-depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree-ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree-ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science-policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers. 2009-10 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 45 1248-1259 0 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00358.x Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over-allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree-ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree-ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in-depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree-ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree-ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science-policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers. Rice J. L. Woodhouse C. A. Lukas J. J. 19518 Article The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users; it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and, subsequently, to assess whether such data would be beneficial as FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard; that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand; and that rainfall and vegetation products are valued as data that provide actionable food security information. 2009-6 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 24009 0 10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024009 The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users; it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and, subsequently, to assess whether such data would be beneficial as FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard; that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand; and that rainfall and vegetation products are valued as data that provide actionable food security information. Ross K. Brown M. E. Verdin J. P. Underwood L. W. 19519 Article Linear stochastically forced models have been found to be competitive with comprehensive nonlinear weather and climate models at representing many features of the observed covariance statistics and at predictions beyond a week. Their success seems at odds with the fact that the observed statistics can be significantly non-Gaussian, which is often attributed to nonlinear dynamics. The stochastic noise in the linear models can be a mixture of state-independent (“additive”) and linearly state-dependent (“multiplicative”) Gaussian white noises. It is shown here that such mixtures can produce not only symmetric but also skewed non-Gaussian probability distributions if the additive and multiplicative noises are correlated. Such correlations are readily anticipated from first principles. A generic stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution can be analytically derived from the Fokker–Planck equation for a single-component system. In addition to skew, all such SGS distributions have power-law tails, as well as a striking property that the (excess) kurtosis K is always greater than 1.5 times the square of the skew S. Remarkably, this K–S inequality is found to be satisfied by circulation variables even in the observed multicomponent climate system. A principle of “diagonal dominance” in the multicomponent moment equations is introduced to understand this behavior. To clarify the nature of the stochastic noises (turbulent adiabatic versus diabatic fluctuations) responsible for the observed non-Gaussian statistics, a long 1200-winter simulation of the northern winter climate is generated using a dry adiabatic atmospheric general circulation model forced only with the observed long-term winter-mean diabatic forcing as a constant forcing. Despite the complete neglect of diabatic variations, the model reproduces the observed K–S relationships and also the spatial patterns of the skew and kurtosis of the daily tropospheric circulation anomalies. This suggests that the stochastic generators of these higher moments are mostly associated with local adiabatic turbulent fluxes. The model also simulates fifth moments that are approximately 10 times the skew, and probability densities with power-law tails, as predicted by the linear theory. 2009-3 J. Climate 22 1193-1207 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2358.1 Linear stochastically forced models have been found to be competitive with comprehensive nonlinear weather and climate models at representing many features of the observed covariance statistics and at predictions beyond a week. Their success seems at odds with the fact that the observed statistics can be significantly non-Gaussian, which is often attributed to nonlinear dynamics. The stochastic noise in the linear models can be a mixture of state-independent (“additive”) and linearly state-dependent (“multiplicative”) Gaussian white noises. It is shown here that such mixtures can produce not only symmetric but also skewed non-Gaussian probability distributions if the additive and multiplicative noises are correlated. Such correlations are readily anticipated from first principles. A generic stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution can be analytically derived from the Fokker–Planck equation for a single-component system. In addition to skew, all such SGS distributions have power-law tails, as well as a striking property that the (excess) kurtosis K is always greater than 1.5 times the square of the skew S. Remarkably, this K–S inequality is found to be satisfied by circulation variables even in the observed multicomponent climate system. A principle of “diagonal dominance” in the multicomponent moment equations is introduced to understand this behavior. To clarify the nature of the stochastic noises (turbulent adiabatic versus diabatic fluctuations) responsible for the observed non-Gaussian statistics, a long 1200-winter simulation of the northern winter climate is generated using a dry adiabatic atmospheric general circulation model forced only with the observed long-term winter-mean diabatic forcing as a constant forcing. Despite the complete neglect of diabatic variations, the model reproduces the observed K–S relationships and also the spatial patterns of the skew and kurtosis of the daily tropospheric circulation anomalies. This suggests that the stochastic generators of these higher moments are mostly associated with local adiabatic turbulent fluxes. The model also simulates fifth moments that are approximately 10 times the skew, and probability densities with power-law tails, as predicted by the linear theory. Sardeshmukh P. D. Sura P. 19520 Article The possibility of using acoustic radiation force in standing waves for stirring and mixing small volumes of liquids is theoretically analyzed. The principle of stirring considered in this paper is based on moving the microparticles suspended in a standing acoustic wave by changing the frequency so that one standing wave mode is replaced by the other, with differently positioned minima of potential energy. The period-average transient dynamics of solid microparticles and gas microbubbles is considered, and simple analytical solutions are obtained for the case of standing waves of variable amplitude. It is shown that bubbles can be moved from one equilibrium position to another two to three orders of magnitude faster than solid particles. For example, radiation force in a standing acoustic wave field may induce movement of microbubbles with a speed of the order of a few m/s at a frequency of 1 MHz and ultrasound pressure amplitude of 100 kPa, whereas the speed of rigid particles does not exceed 1 cm/s under the same conditions. The stirring effect can be additionally enhanced due to the fact that the bubbles that are larger and smaller than the resonant bubbles move in opposite directions. Possible applications of the analyzed stirring mechanism, such as in microarrays, are discussed. 2009-6 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 125 3548-3554 0 10.1121/1.3124769 The possibility of using acoustic radiation force in standing waves for stirring and mixing small volumes of liquids is theoretically analyzed. The principle of stirring considered in this paper is based on moving the microparticles suspended in a standing acoustic wave by changing the frequency so that one standing wave mode is replaced by the other, with differently positioned minima of potential energy. The period-average transient dynamics of solid microparticles and gas microbubbles is considered, and simple analytical solutions are obtained for the case of standing waves of variable amplitude. It is shown that bubbles can be moved from one equilibrium position to another two to three orders of magnitude faster than solid particles. For example, radiation force in a standing acoustic wave field may induce movement of microbubbles with a speed of the order of a few m/s at a frequency of 1 MHz and ultrasound pressure amplitude of 100 kPa, whereas the speed of rigid particles does not exceed 1 cm/s under the same conditions. The stirring effect can be additionally enhanced due to the fact that the bubbles that are larger and smaller than the resonant bubbles move in opposite directions. Possible applications of the analyzed stirring mechanism, such as in microarrays, are discussed. Sarvazyan A. Ostrovsky L. A. 19521 Article Ozone is an air pollutant that can cause severe respiratory health effects. Photochemical ozone production near the Earth's surface is considered a summertime, urban phenomenon1, 2, 3, where hourly average ozone concentrations can exceed 150 p.p.b., compared with background values of about 50 p.p.b., and wintertime ozone concentrations in the US are usually in the range of 35–50 p.p.b. (refs 1, 2, 3). Here we report rapid, diurnal photochemical production of ozone during air temperatures as low as -17 °C, in the rural Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming, in the vicinity of the Jonah–Pinedale Anticline natural gas field. We find that hourly average ozone concentrations rise from 10–30 p.p.b. at night to more than 140 p.p.b. shortly after solar noon, under the influence of a stagnant, high-pressure system that promotes cold temperatures, low wind speeds and limited cloudiness. Under these conditions, an intense, shallow temperature inversion develops in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere, which traps high concentrations of ozone precursors at night. During daytime, photolytic ozone production then leads to the observed high concentrations. We suggest that similar ozone production during wintertime is probably occurring around the world under comparable industrial and meteorological conditions. Introduction 2009-1 Nat. Geosci. 2 120-122 0 10.1038/ngeo415 Ozone is an air pollutant that can cause severe respiratory health effects. Photochemical ozone production near the Earth's surface is considered a summertime, urban phenomenon1, 2, 3, where hourly average ozone concentrations can exceed 150 p.p.b., compared with background values of about 50 p.p.b., and wintertime ozone concentrations in the US are usually in the range of 35–50 p.p.b. (refs 1, 2, 3). Here we report rapid, diurnal photochemical production of ozone during air temperatures as low as -17 °C, in the rural Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming, in the vicinity of the Jonah–Pinedale Anticline natural gas field. We find that hourly average ozone concentrations rise from 10–30 p.p.b. at night to more than 140 p.p.b. shortly after solar noon, under the influence of a stagnant, high-pressure system that promotes cold temperatures, low wind speeds and limited cloudiness. Under these conditions, an intense, shallow temperature inversion develops in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere, which traps high concentrations of ozone precursors at night. During daytime, photolytic ozone production then leads to the observed high concentrations. We suggest that similar ozone production during wintertime is probably occurring around the world under comparable industrial and meteorological conditions. Introduction Schnell R. C. Oltmans S. Neely R. R. Endres M. S. Molenar J. V. White A. B. 19522 Article The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and one coupled atmosphere–ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all of the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the United States tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite signs. Further highlights of the response over the United States to the Pacific forcing include precipitation signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world’s land areas, with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all of the models. It is hoped that these early results, as well as those reported in the other contributions to this special issue on drought, will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world. 2009-10 J. Climate 22 5251-5272 0 10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1 The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and one coupled atmosphere–ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all of the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the United States tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite signs. Further highlights of the response over the United States to the Pacific forcing include precipitation signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world’s land areas, with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all of the models. It is hoped that these early results, as well as those reported in the other contributions to this special issue on drought, will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world. Schubert S. Gutzler D. . . . Hoerling M. P. . . . Pulwarty R. S. et al. 19523 Article Sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), and surface currents derived from satellite observations are analyzed to investigate signals of equatorial Kelvin and tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Pacific Ocean. A wavenumber–frequency spectral analysis of SSH and SST anomalies was performed in order to examine their space and time variability. Significant spectral peaks along the dispersion curves of the first baroclinic mode Rossby and Kelvin waves are found in the SSH spectrum, indicating that the analysis can effectively identify the signals of equatorial waves in the upper ocean. A prominent peak in SSH fields at around 33 days and 1500 km wavelength along the Rossby wave dispersion curve is evident, and a similar peak is also found in SST fields. This upper ocean variability on these space and time scales is shown to be associated with TIWs. The spatial structure of 33-day TIWs is further examined based on an analysis of time series filtered in the frequency-wavenumber domain. The phase relationship between SSH, SST, and surface velocity associated with TIWs is described based on a cross-correlation analysis. Also, the interannual variability of TIW activity is compared with that of ENSO, showing a moderate correlation. 2009-9 Atmos. Res. 95 37-44 0 10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.06.002 Sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), and surface currents derived from satellite observations are analyzed to investigate signals of equatorial Kelvin and tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Pacific Ocean. A wavenumber–frequency spectral analysis of SSH and SST anomalies was performed in order to examine their space and time variability. Significant spectral peaks along the dispersion curves of the first baroclinic mode Rossby and Kelvin waves are found in the SSH spectrum, indicating that the analysis can effectively identify the signals of equatorial waves in the upper ocean. A prominent peak in SSH fields at around 33 days and 1500 km wavelength along the Rossby wave dispersion curve is evident, and a similar peak is also found in SST fields. This upper ocean variability on these space and time scales is shown to be associated with TIWs. The spatial structure of 33-day TIWs is further examined based on an analysis of time series filtered in the frequency-wavenumber domain. The phase relationship between SSH, SST, and surface velocity associated with TIWs is described based on a cross-correlation analysis. Also, the interannual variability of TIW activity is compared with that of ENSO, showing a moderate correlation. Shinoda T. Kiladis G. N. Roundy P. E. 19524 Article In this study the Weather Research Forecast model is used with 1-km horizontal grid spacing to investigate the microphysical properties of Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus. Intensive measurements taken during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) on the North Slope of Alaska, during 9–12 October 2004, are used to verify the microphysical characteristics of the model’s simulation of mixed-phase clouds (MPCs). A series of one- and two-moment bulk microphysical cloud schemes are tested to identify how the treatment of snow and ice affects the maintenance of cloud liquid water at low temperatures. The baseline two-moment simulation results in realistic liquid water paths and in size distributions of snow reasonably similar to observations. With a one-moment simulation for which the size distribution intercept parameter for snow is fixed at values taken from the two-moment simulation, reasonable snow size distributions are again obtained but the cloud liquid water is reduced because the one-moment scheme couples the number concentration to the mixing ratio. The one-moment scheme with the constant snow intercept parameter set to a value typical of midlatitude frontal clouds results in a substantial underprediction of the liquid water path. In the simulations, the number concentration of small ice crystals is found to be underestimated by an order of magnitude. A sensitivity test with the concentration of ice particles larger than 53 μm increased to the observed value results in underprediction of the liquid water path. If ice (not snow) is the primary driver for the depletion of cloud liquid water, then the results of this study suggest that the feedbacks among ice–snow–cloud liquid water may be misrepresented in the model. 2009-9 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 3110-3128 0 10.1175/2009MWR2688.1 In this study the Weather Research Forecast model is used with 1-km horizontal grid spacing to investigate the microphysical properties of Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus. Intensive measurements taken during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) on the North Slope of Alaska, during 9–12 October 2004, are used to verify the microphysical characteristics of the model’s simulation of mixed-phase clouds (MPCs). A series of one- and two-moment bulk microphysical cloud schemes are tested to identify how the treatment of snow and ice affects the maintenance of cloud liquid water at low temperatures. The baseline two-moment simulation results in realistic liquid water paths and in size distributions of snow reasonably similar to observations. With a one-moment simulation for which the size distribution intercept parameter for snow is fixed at values taken from the two-moment simulation, reasonable snow size distributions are again obtained but the cloud liquid water is reduced because the one-moment scheme couples the number concentration to the mixing ratio. The one-moment scheme with the constant snow intercept parameter set to a value typical of midlatitude frontal clouds results in a substantial underprediction of the liquid water path. In the simulations, the number concentration of small ice crystals is found to be underestimated by an order of magnitude. A sensitivity test with the concentration of ice particles larger than 53 μm increased to the observed value results in underprediction of the liquid water path. If ice (not snow) is the primary driver for the depletion of cloud liquid water, then the results of this study suggest that the feedbacks among ice–snow–cloud liquid water may be misrepresented in the model. Solomon A. Morrison H. Persson P. O. G. Shupe M. D. Bao J.-W. 19525 Article Climate change is widely regarded as among the most challenging environmental issues ever faced by humanity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is working to enhance its climate services by creating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to providing information to support adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts, including those important for human life and coastal/marine ecosystems. NOAA has recently published a report entitled, "A Vision for Climate Services in NOAA," (available at www.climate.noaa.gov/pdf/GandPdocumentOct21.pdf) that provides a set of goals and principles for these services from the view of a group of NOAA scientists and related experts. Below is an abridged version of this document, with particular emphasis on ecosystem and fisheries considerations. 2009-12 Fisheries 34 607-609 0 10.1577/1548-8446-34-12 Climate change is widely regarded as among the most challenging environmental issues ever faced by humanity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is working to enhance its climate services by creating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to providing information to support adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts, including those important for human life and coastal/marine ecosystems. NOAA has recently published a report entitled, "A Vision for Climate Services in NOAA," (available at www.climate.noaa.gov/pdf/GandPdocumentOct21.pdf) that provides a set of goals and principles for these services from the view of a group of NOAA scientists and related experts. Below is an abridged version of this document, with particular emphasis on ecosystem and fisheries considerations. Solomon S. Dole R. M. Feely R. Held I. M. Higgins W. Payne J. Shea E. Varanasi U. Westley M. 19526 Article Empirical characterization of graupel and snow in precipitating tropical convective clouds is important for refining satellite precipitation retrieval algorithms and cloud-resolving and radiative transfer models. Microphysics data for this analysis were collected by the University of North Dakota (UND) Citation and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) DC-8 aircraft during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. An ice particle identification algorithm was applied to two-dimensional optical array probe data for the purpose of identifying ice particle ensembles dominated by graupel or snow particles. These ensembles were accumulated along 1-km flight segments at temperatures below 0°C. A third category, mixed graupel/snow, has characteristics between those of the predominately graupel and snow ensembles and can be used either in combination with the other two categories or separately. Snow particle ensembles compose 80% of UND Citation and 98% of NASA DC-8 ensemble data. For the UND Citation, graupel ensembles compose 5% of the total with mixed graupel/snow ensembles composing 15%. There were no graupel ensembles in the NASA DC-8 data, which were collected primarily at temperatures <−35°C. Particles too small to classify (<150-μm maximum dimension) compose 56% of UND Citation and 64% of NASA DC-8 particle images. Nearly all these “tiny” particles occur coincident with particles >150 μm. Combining data from both aircraft, snow and mixed graupel/snow ensembles were evident over the full range of subfreezing temperatures (from 0° to −65°C) sampled by the aircraft. In contrast, graupel ensembles were present primarily at temperatures >−10°C. Accurate graupel identification was further supported by all graupel ensembles observed either coincident with or within a 10-km horizontal distance of radar-identified convective precipitation structures. 2009-2 J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 48 185-198 0 10.1175/2008JAMC1940.1 Empirical characterization of graupel and snow in precipitating tropical convective clouds is important for refining satellite precipitation retrieval algorithms and cloud-resolving and radiative transfer models. Microphysics data for this analysis were collected by the University of North Dakota (UND) Citation and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) DC-8 aircraft during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. An ice particle identification algorithm was applied to two-dimensional optical array probe data for the purpose of identifying ice particle ensembles dominated by graupel or snow particles. These ensembles were accumulated along 1-km flight segments at temperatures below 0°C. A third category, mixed graupel/snow, has characteristics between those of the predominately graupel and snow ensembles and can be used either in combination with the other two categories or separately. Snow particle ensembles compose 80% of UND Citation and 98% of NASA DC-8 ensemble data. For the UND Citation, graupel ensembles compose 5% of the total with mixed graupel/snow ensembles composing 15%. There were no graupel ensembles in the NASA DC-8 data, which were collected primarily at temperatures <−35°C. Particles too small to classify (<150-μm maximum dimension) compose 56% of UND Citation and 64% of NASA DC-8 particle images. Nearly all these “tiny” particles occur coincident with particles >150 μm. Combining data from both aircraft, snow and mixed graupel/snow ensembles were evident over the full range of subfreezing temperatures (from 0° to −65°C) sampled by the aircraft. In contrast, graupel ensembles were present primarily at temperatures >−10°C. Accurate graupel identification was further supported by all graupel ensembles observed either coincident with or within a 10-km horizontal distance of radar-identified convective precipitation structures. Sukovich E. M. Kingsmill D. E. et al. 19527 Article By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed the following two common biases in the models: 1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and 2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor. Extending the same analysis to the fully coupled simulations of these models as well as other Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled models, it is found that these two biases persist. Relative to the earlier estimates from AMIP simulations, the overestimate of the positive feedback from water vapor is alleviated somewhat for most of the coupled simulations. Improvements in the simulation of the cloud albedo feedback are only found in the models whose AMIP runs suggest either a positive or nearly positive cloud albedo feedback. The strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback in all other models is found to be substantially weaker than that estimated from the corresponding AMIP simulations. Consequently, although additional models are found to have a cloud albedo feedback in their AMIP simulations that is as strong as in the observations, all coupled simulations analyzed in this study have a weaker negative feedback from the cloud albedo and therefore a weaker negative feedback from the net surface heating than that indicated in observations. The weakening in the cloud albedo feedback is apparently linked to a reduced response of deep convection over the equatorial Pacific, which is in turn linked to the excessive cold tongue in the mean climate of these models. The results highlight that the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds—the cloud albedo feedback in particular—may depend on the mean intensity of the hydrological cycle. Whether the intermodel variations in the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in the ENSO variability are correlated with the intermodel variations of the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in global warming has also been examined. While a weak positive correlation between the intermodel variations in the feedback of water vapor during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the water vapor feedback during global warming was found, there is no significant correlation found between the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during global warming. The results suggest that the two common biases revealed in the simulated ENSO variability may not necessarily be carried over to the simulated global warming. These biases, however, highlight the continuing difficulty that models have in simulating accurately the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds on a time scale of the observations available. 2009-3 J. Climate 22 1287-1304 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2267.1 By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed the following two common biases in the models: 1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and 2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor. Extending the same analysis to the fully coupled simulations of these models as well as other Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled models, it is found that these two biases persist. Relative to the earlier estimates from AMIP simulations, the overestimate of the positive feedback from water vapor is alleviated somewhat for most of the coupled simulations. Improvements in the simulation of the cloud albedo feedback are only found in the models whose AMIP runs suggest either a positive or nearly positive cloud albedo feedback. The strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback in all other models is found to be substantially weaker than that estimated from the corresponding AMIP simulations. Consequently, although additional models are found to have a cloud albedo feedback in their AMIP simulations that is as strong as in the observations, all coupled simulations analyzed in this study have a weaker negative feedback from the cloud albedo and therefore a weaker negative feedback from the net surface heating than that indicated in observations. The weakening in the cloud albedo feedback is apparently linked to a reduced response of deep convection over the equatorial Pacific, which is in turn linked to the excessive cold tongue in the mean climate of these models. The results highlight that the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds—the cloud albedo feedback in particular—may depend on the mean intensity of the hydrological cycle. Whether the intermodel variations in the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in the ENSO variability are correlated with the intermodel variations of the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in global warming has also been examined. While a weak positive correlation between the intermodel variations in the feedback of water vapor during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the water vapor feedback during global warming was found, there is no significant correlation found between the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during global warming. The results suggest that the two common biases revealed in the simulated ENSO variability may not necessarily be carried over to the simulated global warming. These biases, however, highlight the continuing difficulty that models have in simulating accurately the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds on a time scale of the observations available. Sun D.-Z. Yu Y. Zhang T. 19528 Article Two recent studies of observed sea surface temperature (SST) variations have provided striking evidence that their non-Gaussian statistics can be understood within the context of linear stochastically forced models in which the amplitude of the noise forcing depends linearly on the SST. One study is based on a general 1-d Langevin model, whereas the other considers an explicitly coupled 2-d model of SST and local surface air temperature, and emphasizes the crucial role of thermal air–sea coupling in generating the non-Gaussian statistics. It is shown here that these studies are not necessarily mutually inconsistent. In particular, it is shown that the 1-d model can be derived from the 2-d model as a special case, in which the air temperature is approximated as comprising a part linearly dependent on SST plus a pure noise part. This version of the 1-d model, however, can only predict positive SST skew given the observed thermal damping and coupling constants over the globe. The fact that the more general 1-d model can also capture the essence of the local SST dynamics in regions of negative SST skew therefore implies that other physical mechanisms not included in simple local thermally coupled models, such as stochasticity in oceanic heat transports, may also be important in those regions. 2009-9 Atmos. Res. 94 140-149 0 10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.08.008 Two recent studies of observed sea surface temperature (SST) variations have provided striking evidence that their non-Gaussian statistics can be understood within the context of linear stochastically forced models in which the amplitude of the noise forcing depends linearly on the SST. One study is based on a general 1-d Langevin model, whereas the other considers an explicitly coupled 2-d model of SST and local surface air temperature, and emphasizes the crucial role of thermal air–sea coupling in generating the non-Gaussian statistics. It is shown here that these studies are not necessarily mutually inconsistent. In particular, it is shown that the 1-d model can be derived from the 2-d model as a special case, in which the air temperature is approximated as comprising a part linearly dependent on SST plus a pure noise part. This version of the 1-d model, however, can only predict positive SST skew given the observed thermal damping and coupling constants over the globe. The fact that the more general 1-d model can also capture the essence of the local SST dynamics in regions of negative SST skew therefore implies that other physical mechanisms not included in simple local thermally coupled models, such as stochasticity in oceanic heat transports, may also be important in those regions. Sura P. Sardeshmukh P. D. 19529 Article A linear statistical downscaling technique is applied to the projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change scenarios onto Hawaiian rainfall for the late twenty-first century. Hawaii’s regional rainfall is largely controlled by the strength of the trade winds. During the winter months, disturbances in the westerlies can produce heavy rainfall throughout the islands. A diagnostic analysis of sea level pressure (SLP), near-surface winds, and rainfall measurements at 134 weather observing stations around the islands characterize the correlations between the circulation and rainfall during the nominal wet season (November–April) and dry season (May–October). A comparison of the base climate twentieth-century AR4 model simulations with reanalysis data for the period 1970–2000 is used to define objective selection criterion for the AR4 models. Six out of 21 available models were chosen for the statistical downscaling. These were chosen on the basis of their ability to more realistically simulate the modern large-scale circulation fields in the Hawaiian Islands region. For the AR4 A1B emission scenario, the six analyzed models show important changes in the wind fields around Hawaii by the late twenty-first century. Two models clearly indicate opposite signs in the anomalies. One model projects 20%–30% rainfall increase over the islands; the other model suggests a rainfall decrease of about 10%–20% during the wet season. It is concluded from the six-model ensemble that the most likely scenario for Hawaii is a 5%–10% reduction of the wet-season precipitation and a 5% increase during the dry season, as a result of changes in the wind field. The authors discuss the sources of uncertainties in the projected rainfall changes and consider future improvements of the statistical downscaling work and implications for dynamical downscaling methods. 2009-8 J. Climate 22 4261-4280 0 10.1175/2009JCLI2833.1 A linear statistical downscaling technique is applied to the projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change scenarios onto Hawaiian rainfall for the late twenty-first century. Hawaii’s regional rainfall is largely controlled by the strength of the trade winds. During the winter months, disturbances in the westerlies can produce heavy rainfall throughout the islands. A diagnostic analysis of sea level pressure (SLP), near-surface winds, and rainfall measurements at 134 weather observing stations around the islands characterize the correlations between the circulation and rainfall during the nominal wet season (November–April) and dry season (May–October). A comparison of the base climate twentieth-century AR4 model simulations with reanalysis data for the period 1970–2000 is used to define objective selection criterion for the AR4 models. Six out of 21 available models were chosen for the statistical downscaling. These were chosen on the basis of their ability to more realistically simulate the modern large-scale circulation fields in the Hawaiian Islands region. For the AR4 A1B emission scenario, the six analyzed models show important changes in the wind fields around Hawaii by the late twenty-first century. Two models clearly indicate opposite signs in the anomalies. One model projects 20%–30% rainfall increase over the islands; the other model suggests a rainfall decrease of about 10%–20% during the wet season. It is concluded from the six-model ensemble that the most likely scenario for Hawaii is a 5%–10% reduction of the wet-season precipitation and a 5% increase during the dry season, as a result of changes in the wind field. The authors discuss the sources of uncertainties in the projected rainfall changes and consider future improvements of the statistical downscaling work and implications for dynamical downscaling methods. Timm O. Diaz H. F. 19530 Article Observations from a 16-month field study using two vertically pointing radars and a disdrometer at Wallops Island are analyzed to examine the consistency of the multi-instrument observations with respect to reflectivity and Z–R relations. The vertically pointing radars were operated at S and K bands and had a very good agreement in reflectivity at a gate centered on 175 and 177 m above ground level over a variety of storms. This agreement occurred even though the sampling volumes were of different size and even though the S band measured the reflectivity factor directly, whereas the K-band radar deduced it from attenuated K-band measurements. Indeed, the radar agreement in reflectivity at the collocated range gates was superior to that between the disdrometer and either radar. This is attributed in large part to the spatial separation of the disdrometer and radar sample volumes, although the lesser agreement observed in a prior collocated disdrometer–disdrometer comparison suggests the larger size of the radar sample volumes as well as the better overlap also play a role. Vertical variations in the observations were examined with the aid of the two radar profilers. As expected, the agreement between the disdrometer reflectivity and the reflectivity seen in the vertically pointing radars decreased with height. The effect of these vertical variations on determinations of Z–R relation coefficients was then examined, using a number of different methods for finding the best-fitting coefficients. The coefficient of the Z–R relation derived from paired disdrometer rain rate and radar reflectivity decreased with height, while the exponent of the Z–R relation increased with height. The coefficient and exponent of the Z–R relations also showed sensitivity to the choice of derivation method [linear and nonlinear least squares, fixed exponent, minimizing the root-mean-square difference (RMSD), and probability matching]. The influence of the time lag between the radar and disdrometer measurements was explored by examining the RMSD in reflectivity for paired measurements between 0- and 4-min lag. The no-lag conditions had the lowest RMSD up to 400 m, while 1-min lag gave the lowest RMSD at higher heights. The coefficient and exponent of the Z–R relations, on the other hand, did not have a significant change between no-lag- and 1-min-lag-based pairs. 2009-6 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 26 1120-1134 0 10.1175/2008JTECHA1163.1 Observations from a 16-month field study using two vertically pointing radars and a disdrometer at Wallops Island are analyzed to examine the consistency of the multi-instrument observations with respect to reflectivity and Z–R relations. The vertically pointing radars were operated at S and K bands and had a very good agreement in reflectivity at a gate centered on 175 and 177 m above ground level over a variety of storms. This agreement occurred even though the sampling volumes were of different size and even though the S band measured the reflectivity factor directly, whereas the K-band radar deduced it from attenuated K-band measurements. Indeed, the radar agreement in reflectivity at the collocated range gates was superior to that between the disdrometer and either radar. This is attributed in large part to the spatial separation of the disdrometer and radar sample volumes, although the lesser agreement observed in a prior collocated disdrometer–disdrometer comparison suggests the larger size of the radar sample volumes as well as the better overlap also play a role. Vertical variations in the observations were examined with the aid of the two radar profilers. As expected, the agreement between the disdrometer reflectivity and the reflectivity seen in the vertically pointing radars decreased with height. The effect of these vertical variations on determinations of Z–R relation coefficients was then examined, using a number of different methods for finding the best-fitting coefficients. The coefficient of the Z–R relation derived from paired disdrometer rain rate and radar reflectivity decreased with height, while the exponent of the Z–R relation increased with height. The coefficient and exponent of the Z–R relations also showed sensitivity to the choice of derivation method [linear and nonlinear least squares, fixed exponent, minimizing the root-mean-square difference (RMSD), and probability matching]. The influence of the time lag between the radar and disdrometer measurements was explored by examining the RMSD in reflectivity for paired measurements between 0- and 4-min lag. The no-lag conditions had the lowest RMSD up to 400 m, while 1-min lag gave the lowest RMSD at higher heights. The coefficient and exponent of the Z–R relations, on the other hand, did not have a significant change between no-lag- and 1-min-lag-based pairs. Tokay A. Hartmann P. Battaglia A. Gage K. S. Clark W. L. Williams C. R. 19531 Article N/A 2009-1 SW Hydrol. 8 18-19 0 N/A Udall B. Averyt K. 19532 Article A set of ensemble model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model version 3.0 (CAM3) is run to investigate the tropical Pacific response to midlatitude atmospheric variability associated with the atmospheric North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). Heat flux anomalies associated with the NPO are used to force a set of model simulations during boreal winter (when the NPO is most energetic), after which the forcing is switched off and the coupled model evolves on its own. Sea surface temperature (SST) and wind anomalies continue to amplify in the tropical Pacific after the imposed forcing has been shut off, indicating that coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific alter the spatial and temporal structure of variability associated with midlatitude forcing. The tropical circulation evolves through feedbacks between the surface wind, evaporation, and SST (the WES feedback), as well as through changes in the shortwave radiative heat flux (caused by changes in convection). Sensitivity experiments are run to investigate how thermodynamic coupling and seasonality affect the tropical response to NPO-related forcing. Seasonality is found to affect the WES feedback through (i) altering the sensitivity of surface evaporation to changes in the low-level wind field and (ii) altering the structure and strength of the lower-level wind response to SST anomalies. Thermodynamic coupling causes an equatorward and westward development of SST anomalies and an associated equatorward shift in the lower-level zonal wind anomalies. 2009-2 J. Climate 22 518-534 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2220.1 A set of ensemble model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model version 3.0 (CAM3) is run to investigate the tropical Pacific response to midlatitude atmospheric variability associated with the atmospheric North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). Heat flux anomalies associated with the NPO are used to force a set of model simulations during boreal winter (when the NPO is most energetic), after which the forcing is switched off and the coupled model evolves on its own. Sea surface temperature (SST) and wind anomalies continue to amplify in the tropical Pacific after the imposed forcing has been shut off, indicating that coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific alter the spatial and temporal structure of variability associated with midlatitude forcing. The tropical circulation evolves through feedbacks between the surface wind, evaporation, and SST (the WES feedback), as well as through changes in the shortwave radiative heat flux (caused by changes in convection). Sensitivity experiments are run to investigate how thermodynamic coupling and seasonality affect the tropical response to NPO-related forcing. Seasonality is found to affect the WES feedback through (i) altering the sensitivity of surface evaporation to changes in the low-level wind field and (ii) altering the structure and strength of the lower-level wind response to SST anomalies. Thermodynamic coupling causes an equatorward and westward development of SST anomalies and an associated equatorward shift in the lower-level zonal wind anomalies. Vimont D. J. Alexander M. A. Fontaine A. 19533 Article The mean value and the coherence function of a sound field propagating in an oceanic waveguide with random inhomogeneities are important statistical characteristics of this field, which are needed for many practical applications. Closed equations for the coherence function were obtained in many works for both two dimensional and three dimensional geometries. For the 3D case, these equations are too involved even for a numerical treatment. In this paper, explicit expressions for the mean field and the coherence function due to a point omnidirectional monochromatic source in a 3D waveguide are derived for the case of random inhomogeneities, which are statistically isotropic in a horizontal plane. The solutions are much simpler than those obtained previously due to the cylindrical symmetry of the problem. The theory developed is used to study numerically the mean field and the coherence function in an oceanic waveguide perturbed by a random field of internal waves with the Garrett–Munk spectrum. 2009-1 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 125 99-110 0 10.1121/1.3035832 The mean value and the coherence function of a sound field propagating in an oceanic waveguide with random inhomogeneities are important statistical characteristics of this field, which are needed for many practical applications. Closed equations for the coherence function were obtained in many works for both two dimensional and three dimensional geometries. For the 3D case, these equations are too involved even for a numerical treatment. In this paper, explicit expressions for the mean field and the coherence function due to a point omnidirectional monochromatic source in a 3D waveguide are derived for the case of random inhomogeneities, which are statistically isotropic in a horizontal plane. The solutions are much simpler than those obtained previously due to the cylindrical symmetry of the problem. The theory developed is used to study numerically the mean field and the coherence function in an oceanic waveguide perturbed by a random field of internal waves with the Garrett–Munk spectrum. Voronovich A. G. Ostashev V. E. 19534 Article The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) interacts with and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, midlatitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multimodel comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, because of the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation to more sophisticated space–time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO. 2009-6 J. Climate 22 3006-3030 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2731.1 The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) interacts with and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, midlatitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multimodel comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, because of the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation to more sophisticated space–time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO. Waliser D. E. Sperber K. R. . . . Weickmann K. M. al. et 19535 Article The observed climate trends over the United States during 1950–2000 exhibit distinct seasonality and regionality. The surface air temperature exhibits a warming trend during winter, spring, and early summer and a modest countrywide cooling trend in late summer and fall, with the strongest warming occurring over the northern United States in spring. Precipitation trends are positive in all seasons, with the largest trend occurring over the central and southern United States in fall. This study investigates the causes of the seasonality and regionality of those trends, with a focus on the cooling and wetting trends in the central United States during late summer and fall. In particular, the authors examine the link between the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States and the leading patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including a global warming (GW) pattern and a Pacific decadal variability (PDV) pattern. A series of idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments were performed forced by SST trends associated with these leading SST patterns, as well as the residual trend pattern (obtained by removing the GW and PDV contributions). The results show that the observed seasonal and spatial variations of the climate trends over the United States are to a large extent explained by changes in SST. Among the leading patterns of SST variability, the PDV pattern plays a prominent role in producing both the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States. In particular, it is the main contributor to the apparent cooling and wetting trends over the central United States. The residual SST trend, a manifestation of phase changes of the Atlantic multidecadal SST variation during 1950–2000, also exerts influences that show strong seasonality with important contributions to the central U.S. temperature and precipitation during the summer and fall seasons. In contrast, the response over the United States to the GW SST pattern is an overall warming with little seasonality or regional variation. These results highlight the important contributions of decadal and multidecadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic in explaining the observed seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States during the period of 1950–2000. 2009-5 J. Climate 22 2571-2590 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2359.1 The observed climate trends over the United States during 1950–2000 exhibit distinct seasonality and regionality. The surface air temperature exhibits a warming trend during winter, spring, and early summer and a modest countrywide cooling trend in late summer and fall, with the strongest warming occurring over the northern United States in spring. Precipitation trends are positive in all seasons, with the largest trend occurring over the central and southern United States in fall. This study investigates the causes of the seasonality and regionality of those trends, with a focus on the cooling and wetting trends in the central United States during late summer and fall. In particular, the authors examine the link between the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States and the leading patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including a global warming (GW) pattern and a Pacific decadal variability (PDV) pattern. A series of idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments were performed forced by SST trends associated with these leading SST patterns, as well as the residual trend pattern (obtained by removing the GW and PDV contributions). The results show that the observed seasonal and spatial variations of the climate trends over the United States are to a large extent explained by changes in SST. Among the leading patterns of SST variability, the PDV pattern plays a prominent role in producing both the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States. In particular, it is the main contributor to the apparent cooling and wetting trends over the central United States. The residual SST trend, a manifestation of phase changes of the Atlantic multidecadal SST variation during 1950–2000, also exerts influences that show strong seasonality with important contributions to the central U.S. temperature and precipitation during the summer and fall seasons. In contrast, the response over the United States to the GW SST pattern is an overall warming with little seasonality or regional variation. These results highlight the important contributions of decadal and multidecadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic in explaining the observed seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States during the period of 1950–2000. Wang H. Schubert S. Suarez M. Chen J. Hoerling M. P. Kumar A. Pegion P. 19536 Article A hybrid analysis scheme is compared with an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) analysis scheme in the presence of model errors as a follow-up to a previous perfect-model comparison. In the hybrid scheme, the ensemble perturbations are updated by the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the ensemble mean is updated with a hybrid ensemble and static background-error covariance. The experiments were conducted with a two-layer primitive equation model. The true state was a T127 simulation. Data assimilation experiments were conducted at T31 resolution (3168 complex spectral coefficients), assimilating imperfect observations drawn from the T127 nature run. By design, the magnitude of the truncation error was large, which provided a test on the ability of both schemes to deal with model error. Additive noise was used to parameterize model errors in the background ensemble for both schemes. In the first set of experiments, additive noise was drawn from a large inventory of historical forecast errors; in the second set of experiments, additive noise was drawn from a large inventory of differences between forecasts and analyses. The static covariance was computed correspondingly from the two inventories. The hybrid analysis was statistically significantly more accurate than the EnSRF analysis. The improvement of the hybrid over the EnSRF was smaller when differences of forecasts and analyses were used to form the random noise and the static covariance. The EnSRF analysis was more sensitive to the size of the ensemble than the hybrid. A series of tests was conducted to understand why the EnSRF performed worse than the hybrid. It was shown that the inferior performance of the EnSRF was likely due to the sampling error in the estimation of the model-error covariance in the mean update and the less-balanced EnSRF initial conditions resulting from the extra localizations used in the EnSRF. 2009-10 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 3219-3232 0 10.1175/2009MWR2923.1 A hybrid analysis scheme is compared with an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) analysis scheme in the presence of model errors as a follow-up to a previous perfect-model comparison. In the hybrid scheme, the ensemble perturbations are updated by the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the ensemble mean is updated with a hybrid ensemble and static background-error covariance. The experiments were conducted with a two-layer primitive equation model. The true state was a T127 simulation. Data assimilation experiments were conducted at T31 resolution (3168 complex spectral coefficients), assimilating imperfect observations drawn from the T127 nature run. By design, the magnitude of the truncation error was large, which provided a test on the ability of both schemes to deal with model error. Additive noise was used to parameterize model errors in the background ensemble for both schemes. In the first set of experiments, additive noise was drawn from a large inventory of historical forecast errors; in the second set of experiments, additive noise was drawn from a large inventory of differences between forecasts and analyses. The static covariance was computed correspondingly from the two inventories. The hybrid analysis was statistically significantly more accurate than the EnSRF analysis. The improvement of the hybrid over the EnSRF was smaller when differences of forecasts and analyses were used to form the random noise and the static covariance. The EnSRF analysis was more sensitive to the size of the ensemble than the hybrid. A series of tests was conducted to understand why the EnSRF performed worse than the hybrid. It was shown that the inferior performance of the EnSRF was likely due to the sampling error in the estimation of the model-error covariance in the mean update and the less-balanced EnSRF initial conditions resulting from the extra localizations used in the EnSRF. Wang X. Hamill T. M. Whitaker J. S. Bishop C. H. 19537 Article An accurate representation of permeability anisotropy is needed to model the rate and direction of groundwater flow correctly. We develop a wavelet analysis technique that can be used to characterize principal directions of anisotropy in both stationary and non-stationary permeability fields. Wavelet analysis involves the integral transform of a field using a wavelet as a kernel. The wavelet is shifted, scaled, and rotated to analyze different locations, sizes, and orientations of the field. The wavelet variance is used to identify scales and orientations that dominate the field. If the field is non-stationary, such that different zones of the field are characterized by different dominant scales or orientations, the wavelet variance can identify all dominant scales and orientations if they are distinct. If the dominant scales and orientations of different zones are similar, the wavelet variance identifies only the dominant scale and orientation of the primary zone. In this paper, we present a combined wavelet analysis and filtering approach to identify all dominant scales and orientations in a non-stationary permeability field. We apply the method to permeability data obtained in the laboratory from the Massillon sandstone. 2009-8 Math. Geosci. 41 643-659 0 10.1007/s11004-009-9231-7 An accurate representation of permeability anisotropy is needed to model the rate and direction of groundwater flow correctly. We develop a wavelet analysis technique that can be used to characterize principal directions of anisotropy in both stationary and non-stationary permeability fields. Wavelet analysis involves the integral transform of a field using a wavelet as a kernel. The wavelet is shifted, scaled, and rotated to analyze different locations, sizes, and orientations of the field. The wavelet variance is used to identify scales and orientations that dominate the field. If the field is non-stationary, such that different zones of the field are characterized by different dominant scales or orientations, the wavelet variance can identify all dominant scales and orientations if they are distinct. If the dominant scales and orientations of different zones are similar, the wavelet variance identifies only the dominant scale and orientation of the primary zone. In this paper, we present a combined wavelet analysis and filtering approach to identify all dominant scales and orientations in a non-stationary permeability field. We apply the method to permeability data obtained in the laboratory from the Massillon sandstone. Watkins L. Neupauer R. M. Compo G. P. 19538 Article Stratospheric ozone is represented in most climate models by prescribing zonal-mean fields. We examine the impact of this on Southern Hemisphere (SH) trends using a chemistry climate model (CCM): multi-decadal simulations with interactive stratospheric chemistry are compared with parallel simulations using the same model in which the zonal-mean ozone is prescribed. Prescribing zonal-mean ozone results in a warmer Antarctic stratosphere when there is a large ozone hole, with much smaller differences at other times. As a consequence, Antarctic temperature trends for 1960 to 2000 and 2000 to 2050 in the CCM are underestimated when zonal-mean ozone is prescribed. The impacts of stratospheric changes on the tropospheric circulation (i.e., summertime trends in the SH annular mode) are also underestimated. This shows that SH trends related to ozone depletion and recovery are underestimated when interactions between stratospheric ozone and climate are approximated by an imposed zonal-mean ozone field. 2009-9 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L18701 0 10.1029/2009GL040419 Stratospheric ozone is represented in most climate models by prescribing zonal-mean fields. We examine the impact of this on Southern Hemisphere (SH) trends using a chemistry climate model (CCM): multi-decadal simulations with interactive stratospheric chemistry are compared with parallel simulations using the same model in which the zonal-mean ozone is prescribed. Prescribing zonal-mean ozone results in a warmer Antarctic stratosphere when there is a large ozone hole, with much smaller differences at other times. As a consequence, Antarctic temperature trends for 1960 to 2000 and 2000 to 2050 in the CCM are underestimated when zonal-mean ozone is prescribed. The impacts of stratospheric changes on the tropospheric circulation (i.e., summertime trends in the SH annular mode) are also underestimated. This shows that SH trends related to ozone depletion and recovery are underestimated when interactions between stratospheric ozone and climate are approximated by an imposed zonal-mean ozone field. Waugh D. W. Oman L. Newman P. A. Stolarski R. S. Pawson S. Nielsen J. E. Perlwitz J. 19539 Article The global wind oscillation (GWO) is a subseasonal phenomenon encompassing the tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and midlatitude processes like meridional momentum transports and mountain torques. A phase space is defined for the GWO following the approach of Wheeler and Hendon for the MJO. In contrast to the oscillatory behavior of the MJO, two red noise processes define the GWO. The red noise spectra have variance at periods that bracket 30–60 or 30–80 days, which are bands used to define the MJO. The correlation between the MJO and GWO is 0.5 and cross spectra show well-defined, coherent phase relations in similar frequency bands. However, considerable independent variance exists in the GWO. A basic dynamical distinction occurs in the direction of midlatitude wave energy dispersion, being predominantly meridional during a MJO and zonal during the GWO. This is primarily a winter season feature centered over the Pacific Ocean. A case study during April–May 2007 focuses on the GWO and two 30-day duration orbits with extreme anomalies in GWO phase space. The MJO phase space projections for the same time were irregular and, it is argued, partially driven by mountain torques and meridional transports. The case study reveals that multiple physical processes and time scales act to create slowly evolving planetary-scale circulation and tropical convection anomalies. 2009-5 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 1601-1614 0 10.1175/2008MWR2686.1 The global wind oscillation (GWO) is a subseasonal phenomenon encompassing the tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and midlatitude processes like meridional momentum transports and mountain torques. A phase space is defined for the GWO following the approach of Wheeler and Hendon for the MJO. In contrast to the oscillatory behavior of the MJO, two red noise processes define the GWO. The red noise spectra have variance at periods that bracket 30–60 or 30–80 days, which are bands used to define the MJO. The correlation between the MJO and GWO is 0.5 and cross spectra show well-defined, coherent phase relations in similar frequency bands. However, considerable independent variance exists in the GWO. A basic dynamical distinction occurs in the direction of midlatitude wave energy dispersion, being predominantly meridional during a MJO and zonal during the GWO. This is primarily a winter season feature centered over the Pacific Ocean. A case study during April–May 2007 focuses on the GWO and two 30-day duration orbits with extreme anomalies in GWO phase space. The MJO phase space projections for the same time were irregular and, it is argued, partially driven by mountain torques and meridional transports. The case study reveals that multiple physical processes and time scales act to create slowly evolving planetary-scale circulation and tropical convection anomalies. Weickmann K. Berry E. 19540 Article An observing system experiment, simulating a surface-only observing network representative of the 1930s, is carried out with three- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation systems (3D-VAR and 4D-VAR) and an ensemble-based data assimilation system (EnsDA). It is found that 4D-VAR and EnsDA systems produce analyses of comparable quality and that both are much more accurate than the analyses produced by the 3D-VAR system. The EnsDA system also produces useful estimates of analysis error, which are not directly available from the variational systems. 2009-6 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 1991-1999 0 10.1175/2008MWR2781.1 An observing system experiment, simulating a surface-only observing network representative of the 1930s, is carried out with three- and four-dimensional variational data assimilation systems (3D-VAR and 4D-VAR) and an ensemble-based data assimilation system (EnsDA). It is found that 4D-VAR and EnsDA systems produce analyses of comparable quality and that both are much more accurate than the analyses produced by the 3D-VAR system. The EnsDA system also produces useful estimates of analysis error, which are not directly available from the variational systems. Whitaker J. S. Compo G. P. 19541 Article This study examines meteorological conditions associated with regional surface ozone using data collected during the summer Second Texas Air Quality Experiment, and the ability of the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model–Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (NMM-CMAQ) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models to simulate the observed meteorology and surface ozone. The surface ozone data consist of 118 sites that are part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network, while the meteorological data came from a network of eleven 915-MHz wind profilers with RASS temperatures and supporting surface meteorological stations. High and low 8-h maximum ozone occurrences most frequently develop as regional events, with similar ozone concentration patterns across all of east Texas, allowing for a separate analysis of high- and low-ozone day conditions. The ability of the NMM-CMAQ and WRF-Chem models to simulate the meteorologically distinct high- and low-ozone events is analyzed. Histograms of surface ozone show that both the NMM-CMAQ and WRF-Chem models underpredict the full range found in the observations. For low ozone values, the analysis indicates that the models have a positive bias because of too large of an ozone inflow boundary condition value over the Gulf of America. In contrast, the models have a negative bias for very high ozone values that occur mostly in Houston and Dallas, which suggests that the urban emissions and/or chemistry is misrepresented in the models. 2009-7 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D00F14 0 10.1029/2008JD011675 This study examines meteorological conditions associated with regional surface ozone using data collected during the summer Second Texas Air Quality Experiment, and the ability of the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model–Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (NMM-CMAQ) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models to simulate the observed meteorology and surface ozone. The surface ozone data consist of 118 sites that are part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network, while the meteorological data came from a network of eleven 915-MHz wind profilers with RASS temperatures and supporting surface meteorological stations. High and low 8-h maximum ozone occurrences most frequently develop as regional events, with similar ozone concentration patterns across all of east Texas, allowing for a separate analysis of high- and low-ozone day conditions. The ability of the NMM-CMAQ and WRF-Chem models to simulate the meteorologically distinct high- and low-ozone events is analyzed. Histograms of surface ozone show that both the NMM-CMAQ and WRF-Chem models underpredict the full range found in the observations. For low ozone values, the analysis indicates that the models have a positive bias because of too large of an ozone inflow boundary condition value over the Gulf of America. In contrast, the models have a negative bias for very high ozone values that occur mostly in Houston and Dallas, which suggests that the urban emissions and/or chemistry is misrepresented in the models. Wilczak J. M. Djalalova I. McKeen S. Bianco L. Bao J.-W. Grell G. Peckham S. Mathur R. McQueen J. T. Lee P. 19542 Article Before radar estimates of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) can be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models, the DSD estimate must also include an uncertainty estimate. Ensemble statistics are based on using the same observations as inputs into several different models with the spread in the outputs providing an uncertainty estimate. In this study, Doppler velocity spectra from collocated vertically pointing profiling radars operating at 50 and 920 MHz were the input data for 42 different DSD retrieval models. The DSD retrieval models were perturbations of seven different DSD models (including exponential and gamma functions), two different inverse modeling methodologies (convolution or deconvolution), and three different cost functions (two spectral and one moment cost functions). Two rain events near Darwin, Australia, were analyzed in this study producing 26 725 independent ensembles of mass-weighted mean raindrop diameter Dm and rain rate R. The mean and the standard deviation (indicated by the symbols <x> and σx) of Dm and R were estimated for each ensemble. For small ranges of <Dm> or <R>, histograms of σDm and σR were found to be asymmetric, which prevented Gaussian statistics from being used to describe the uncertainties. Therefore, 10, 50, and 90 percentiles of σDm and σR were used to describe the uncertainties for small intervals of <Dm> or <R>. The smallest Dm uncertainty occurred for <Dm> between 0.8 and 1.8 mm with the 90th and 50th percentiles being less than 0.15 and 0.11 mm, which correspond to relative errors of less than 20% and 15%, respectively. The uncertainty increased for smaller and larger <Dm> values. The uncertainty of R increased with <R>. While the 90th percentile uncertainty approached 0.6 mm h−1 for a 2 mm h−1 rain rate (30% relative error), the median uncertainty was less than 0.15 mm h−1 at the same rain rate (less than 8% relative error). This study addresses retrieval error and does not attempt to quantify absolute or representativeness errors. 2009-2 Ann. Geophys. 27 555-567 0 10.5194/angeo-27-555-2009 Before radar estimates of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) can be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models, the DSD estimate must also include an uncertainty estimate. Ensemble statistics are based on using the same observations as inputs into several different models with the spread in the outputs providing an uncertainty estimate. In this study, Doppler velocity spectra from collocated vertically pointing profiling radars operating at 50 and 920 MHz were the input data for 42 different DSD retrieval models. The DSD retrieval models were perturbations of seven different DSD models (including exponential and gamma functions), two different inverse modeling methodologies (convolution or deconvolution), and three different cost functions (two spectral and one moment cost functions). Two rain events near Darwin, Australia, were analyzed in this study producing 26 725 independent ensembles of mass-weighted mean raindrop diameter Dm and rain rate R. The mean and the standard deviation (indicated by the symbols <x> and σx) of Dm and R were estimated for each ensemble. For small ranges of <Dm> or <R>, histograms of σDm and σR were found to be asymmetric, which prevented Gaussian statistics from being used to describe the uncertainties. Therefore, 10, 50, and 90 percentiles of σDm and σR were used to describe the uncertainties for small intervals of <Dm> or <R>. The smallest Dm uncertainty occurred for <Dm> between 0.8 and 1.8 mm with the 90th and 50th percentiles being less than 0.15 and 0.11 mm, which correspond to relative errors of less than 20% and 15%, respectively. The uncertainty increased for smaller and larger <Dm> values. The uncertainty of R increased with <R>. While the 90th percentile uncertainty approached 0.6 mm h−1 for a 2 mm h−1 rain rate (30% relative error), the median uncertainty was less than 0.15 mm h−1 at the same rain rate (less than 8% relative error). This study addresses retrieval error and does not attempt to quantify absolute or representativeness errors. Williams C. R. Gage K. S. 19543 Article Quasi-wavelets (QWs) are similar to customary wavelets in that they are based on translations and dilations of a parent function; however, their positions and orientations are random. QWs are convenient for representing random fields with a self-similar structure. In this paper, a general, multi-dimensional treatment of QW fields is presented that includes scale-dependence in the number density and amplitude of the QWs. Previous QW formulations are extended to include anisotropy and correlations among several properties of the random fields. These extensions would be difficult (if not impossible) to achieve systematically by Fourier methods. As an example application, it is shown how QW models can be constructed to produce constant turbulent flux layers. Heat flux in buoyantly driven turbulence is modeled as a collection of QWs with predominantly horizontal rotation coupled with dipole scalar perturbations. Predictions for spectra in the presence of fluxes are obtained. 2009-7 Probabilist. Eng. Mech. 24 343-357 0 10.1016/j.probengmech.2008.09.002 Quasi-wavelets (QWs) are similar to customary wavelets in that they are based on translations and dilations of a parent function; however, their positions and orientations are random. QWs are convenient for representing random fields with a self-similar structure. In this paper, a general, multi-dimensional treatment of QW fields is presented that includes scale-dependence in the number density and amplitude of the QWs. Previous QW formulations are extended to include anisotropy and correlations among several properties of the random fields. These extensions would be difficult (if not impossible) to achieve systematically by Fourier methods. As an example application, it is shown how QW models can be constructed to produce constant turbulent flux layers. Heat flux in buoyantly driven turbulence is modeled as a collection of QWs with predominantly horizontal rotation coupled with dipole scalar perturbations. Predictions for spectra in the presence of fluxes are obtained. Wilson D. K. Ostashev V. E. Goedecke G. H. 19544 Article Direct numerical solution of a parabolic equation (PE) for the second moment of the sound field in a refracting medium with random scattering is described. The method determines the mean-square sound pressure without requiring generation of random realizations of the propagation medium. The second-moment matrix is factored into components that are independently propagated with a conventional PE algorithm. A moment screen is periodically applied to attenuate the coherence of the wavefield, much as phase screens are often applied in the method of random realizations. An example involving upwind and downwind propagation in the near-ground atmosphere shows that the new direct method converges to an accurate solution faster than the method of random realizations and is particularly well suited to calculations at low frequencies. 2009-7 Waves Random Complex Media 19 369-391 0 10.1080/17455030802647462 Direct numerical solution of a parabolic equation (PE) for the second moment of the sound field in a refracting medium with random scattering is described. The method determines the mean-square sound pressure without requiring generation of random realizations of the propagation medium. The second-moment matrix is factored into components that are independently propagated with a conventional PE algorithm. A moment screen is periodically applied to attenuate the coherence of the wavefield, much as phase screens are often applied in the method of random realizations. An example involving upwind and downwind propagation in the near-ground atmosphere shows that the new direct method converges to an accurate solution faster than the method of random realizations and is particularly well suited to calculations at low frequencies. Wilson D. K. Ostashev V. E. Lewis M. S. 19545 Article Quasi-wavelets (QWs) are eddy-like entities similar to customary wavelets in the sense that they are based on translations and dilations of a spatially localized parent function. The positions and orientations are, however, normally taken to be random. Random fields such as turbulence may be represented as ensembles of QWs with appropriately selected size distributions, number densities, and amplitudes. This paper overviews previous results concerning QWs and provides a new, QW-based model of anisotropic turbulence in a shear-dominated surface layer. The following points are emphasized. (1) Many types of QWs and couplings, suitable for various applicatons, can be constructed through differentiation of spherically symmetric parent functions. For velocity fluctuations, QWs with toroidal and poloidal circulations can be derived. (2) Self-similar ensembles of QWs with rotation rates scaling according to Kolmogorov's hypotheses naturally produce classical inertial-subrange spectra. (3) Momentum and heat fluxes in surface-layer turbulence can be described by introducing preferred orientations and correlations among QWs representing temperature and velocity perturbations. (4) In contrast to Fourier modes, QWs can be naturally arranged in a spatially intermittent manner. Models for both local (intrinsic) and global intermittency are discussed. (5) The spatially localized nature of QWs can be advantageous in wave-scattering calculations and other applications. 2009-6 Meteorol. Z. 18 237-252 0 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0382 Quasi-wavelets (QWs) are eddy-like entities similar to customary wavelets in the sense that they are based on translations and dilations of a spatially localized parent function. The positions and orientations are, however, normally taken to be random. Random fields such as turbulence may be represented as ensembles of QWs with appropriately selected size distributions, number densities, and amplitudes. This paper overviews previous results concerning QWs and provides a new, QW-based model of anisotropic turbulence in a shear-dominated surface layer. The following points are emphasized. (1) Many types of QWs and couplings, suitable for various applicatons, can be constructed through differentiation of spherically symmetric parent functions. For velocity fluctuations, QWs with toroidal and poloidal circulations can be derived. (2) Self-similar ensembles of QWs with rotation rates scaling according to Kolmogorov's hypotheses naturally produce classical inertial-subrange spectra. (3) Momentum and heat fluxes in surface-layer turbulence can be described by introducing preferred orientations and correlations among QWs representing temperature and velocity perturbations. (4) In contrast to Fourier modes, QWs can be naturally arranged in a spatially intermittent manner. Models for both local (intrinsic) and global intermittency are discussed. (5) The spatially localized nature of QWs can be advantageous in wave-scattering calculations and other applications. Wilson D. K. Ott S. Goedecke G. H. Ostashev V. E. 19546 Article Over the years, hurricane track forecasts and storm surge models, as well the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on, have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in the knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the temporal/spatial evolution of the mound of water that the hurricane wind and waves push against the shore to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gauges in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum water level over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of the water level over a large area. Despite a 160-m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5-m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5-h data acquisition interval, a survey-quality global positioning system (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA scanning radar altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to demonstrate that an airborne wide-swath radar altimeter could produce targeted measurements of storm surge that would provide an absolute standard for assessing the accuracy of numerical storm surge models. 2009-10 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 26 2200-2215 0 10.1175/2009JTECHO627.1 Over the years, hurricane track forecasts and storm surge models, as well the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on, have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in the knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the temporal/spatial evolution of the mound of water that the hurricane wind and waves push against the shore to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gauges in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum water level over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of the water level over a large area. Despite a 160-m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5-m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5-h data acquisition interval, a survey-quality global positioning system (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA scanning radar altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to demonstrate that an airborne wide-swath radar altimeter could produce targeted measurements of storm surge that would provide an absolute standard for assessing the accuracy of numerical storm surge models. Wright C. W. Walsh E. J. Krabill W. B. Shaffer W. A. Baig S. R. Peng M. Pietrafesa L. J. Garcia A. W. Marks Jr. F. D. Black P. G. Sonntag J. G. Beckley B. D. 19547 Article The coupled model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) is used to investigate the effects of extratropical cooling and warming on the tropical Pacific climate. The IAP coupled model is a fully coupled GCM without any flux correction. The model has been used in many aspects of climate modeling, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change and paleoclimate simulations. In this study, the IAP coupled model is subjected to cooling or heating over the extratropical Pacific. As in an earlier study, the cooling and heating is imposed over the extratropical region poleward of 10°N–10°S. Consistent with earlier findings, an elevated (reduced) level of ENSO activity in response to an increase (decrease) in the cooling over the extratropical region is found. The changes in the time-mean structure of the equatorial upper ocean are also found to be very different between the case in which ocean–atmosphere is coupled over the equatorial region and the case in which the ocean–atmosphere over the equatorial region is decoupled. For example, in the uncoupled run, the thermocline water across the entire equatorial Pacific is cooled in response to an increase in the extratropical cooling. In the corresponding coupled run, the changes in the equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the extratropical cooling resemble a La Niña situation—a deeper thermocline in the western and central Pacific accompanied by a shallower thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Conversely, with coupling, the response of the equatorial upper ocean to extratropical cooling resembles an El Niño situation. These results ascertain the role of extratropical ocean in determining the amplitude of ENSO. The results also underscore the importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the interaction between the tropical Pacific and the extratropical Pacific. 2009-11 J. Climate 22 5902-5917 0 10.1175/2009JCLI2902.1 The coupled model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) is used to investigate the effects of extratropical cooling and warming on the tropical Pacific climate. The IAP coupled model is a fully coupled GCM without any flux correction. The model has been used in many aspects of climate modeling, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change and paleoclimate simulations. In this study, the IAP coupled model is subjected to cooling or heating over the extratropical Pacific. As in an earlier study, the cooling and heating is imposed over the extratropical region poleward of 10°N–10°S. Consistent with earlier findings, an elevated (reduced) level of ENSO activity in response to an increase (decrease) in the cooling over the extratropical region is found. The changes in the time-mean structure of the equatorial upper ocean are also found to be very different between the case in which ocean–atmosphere is coupled over the equatorial region and the case in which the ocean–atmosphere over the equatorial region is decoupled. For example, in the uncoupled run, the thermocline water across the entire equatorial Pacific is cooled in response to an increase in the extratropical cooling. In the corresponding coupled run, the changes in the equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the extratropical cooling resemble a La Niña situation—a deeper thermocline in the western and central Pacific accompanied by a shallower thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Conversely, with coupling, the response of the equatorial upper ocean to extratropical cooling resembles an El Niño situation. These results ascertain the role of extratropical ocean in determining the amplitude of ENSO. The results also underscore the importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the interaction between the tropical Pacific and the extratropical Pacific. Yu Y. Sun D.-Z. 19548 Article We discuss the early history of an important field of “sturm and drang” in modern theory of nonlinear waves. It is demonstrated how scientific demand resulted in independent and almost simultaneous publications by many different authors on modulation instability, a phenomenon resulting in a variety of nonlinear processes such as envelope solitons, envelope shocks, freak waves, etc. Examples from water wave hydrodynamics, electrodynamics, nonlinear optics, and convection theory are given. 2009-3 Physica D 238 540-548 0 10.1016/j.physd.2008.12.002 We discuss the early history of an important field of “sturm and drang” in modern theory of nonlinear waves. It is demonstrated how scientific demand resulted in independent and almost simultaneous publications by many different authors on modulation instability, a phenomenon resulting in a variety of nonlinear processes such as envelope solitons, envelope shocks, freak waves, etc. Examples from water wave hydrodynamics, electrodynamics, nonlinear optics, and convection theory are given. Zakharov V. E. Ostrovsky L. A. 19549 Article The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña is a key aspect of ENSO that needs to be simulated well by models in order to fully capture the role of ENSO in the climate system. Here the asymmetry between the two phases of ENSO in five successive versions of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM1, CCSM2, CCSM3 at T42 resolution, CCSM3 at T85 resolution, and the latest CCSM3 + NR, with the Neale and Richter convection scheme) is evaluated. Different from the previous studies, not only is the surface signature of ENSO asymmetry examined, but so too is its subsurface signature. By comparing the differences among these models as well as the differences between the models and the observations, an understanding of the causes of the ENSO asymmetry is sought. An underestimate of the ENSO asymmetry is noted in all of the models, but the latest version with the Neale and Richter scheme (CCSM3 + NR) is getting closer to the observations than the earlier versions. The net surface heat flux is found to damp the asymmetry in the SST field in both the models and observations, but the damping effect in the models is weaker than that in the observations, thus excluding a role of the surface heat flux in contributing to the weaker asymmetry in the SST anomalies associated with ENSO. Examining the subsurface signatures of ENSO—the thermocline depth and the associated subsurface temperature for the western and eastern Pacific—reveals the same bias; that is, the asymmetry in the models is weaker than that in the observations. The analysis of the corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs in conjunction with the coupled runs suggests that the weaker asymmetry in the subsurface signatures in the models is related to the lack of asymmetry in the zonal wind stress over the central Pacific, which in turn is due to a lack of sufficient asymmetry in deep convection (i.e., the nonlinear dependence of the deep convection on SST). In particular, the lack of a westward shift in the deep convection in the models in response to a cold phase SST anomaly is found as a common factor that is responsible for the weak asymmetry in the models. It is also suggested that a more eastward extension of the deep convection in response to a warm phase SST anomaly may also help to increase the asymmetry of ENSO. The better performance of CCSM3 + NR is apparently linked to an enhanced convection over the eastern Pacific during the warm phase of ENSO. Apparently, either a westward shift of deep convection in response to a cold phase SST anomaly or an increase of convection over the eastern Pacific in response to a warm phase SST anomaly leads to an increase in the asymmetry of zonal wind stress and therefore an increase in the asymmetry of subsurface signal, favoring an increase in ENSO asymmetry. 2009-11 J. Climate 22 5933-5961 0 10.1175/2009jcli2933.1 The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña is a key aspect of ENSO that needs to be simulated well by models in order to fully capture the role of ENSO in the climate system. Here the asymmetry between the two phases of ENSO in five successive versions of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM1, CCSM2, CCSM3 at T42 resolution, CCSM3 at T85 resolution, and the latest CCSM3 + NR, with the Neale and Richter convection scheme) is evaluated. Different from the previous studies, not only is the surface signature of ENSO asymmetry examined, but so too is its subsurface signature. By comparing the differences among these models as well as the differences between the models and the observations, an understanding of the causes of the ENSO asymmetry is sought. An underestimate of the ENSO asymmetry is noted in all of the models, but the latest version with the Neale and Richter scheme (CCSM3 + NR) is getting closer to the observations than the earlier versions. The net surface heat flux is found to damp the asymmetry in the SST field in both the models and observations, but the damping effect in the models is weaker than that in the observations, thus excluding a role of the surface heat flux in contributing to the weaker asymmetry in the SST anomalies associated with ENSO. Examining the subsurface signatures of ENSO—the thermocline depth and the associated subsurface temperature for the western and eastern Pacific—reveals the same bias; that is, the asymmetry in the models is weaker than that in the observations. The analysis of the corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs in conjunction with the coupled runs suggests that the weaker asymmetry in the subsurface signatures in the models is related to the lack of asymmetry in the zonal wind stress over the central Pacific, which in turn is due to a lack of sufficient asymmetry in deep convection (i.e., the nonlinear dependence of the deep convection on SST). In particular, the lack of a westward shift in the deep convection in the models in response to a cold phase SST anomaly is found as a common factor that is responsible for the weak asymmetry in the models. It is also suggested that a more eastward extension of the deep convection in response to a warm phase SST anomaly may also help to increase the asymmetry of ENSO. The better performance of CCSM3 + NR is apparently linked to an enhanced convection over the eastern Pacific during the warm phase of ENSO. Apparently, either a westward shift of deep convection in response to a cold phase SST anomaly or an increase of convection over the eastern Pacific in response to a warm phase SST anomaly leads to an increase in the asymmetry of zonal wind stress and therefore an increase in the asymmetry of subsurface signal, favoring an increase in ENSO asymmetry. Zhang T. Sun D.-Z. Neale R. Rasch P. J. 19550 Article A β-plane multilevel quasigeostrophic channel model with interactive static stability and a simplified parameterization of atmospheric boundary layer physics is used to study the role of different boundary layer processes in eddy equilibration and their relative effect in maintaining the strong boundary layer potential vorticity (PV) gradient. The model results show that vertical thermal diffusion, along with the surface heat exchange, is primarily responsible for limiting PV homogenization by baroclinic eddies in the boundary layer. Under fixed SST boundary conditions, these two processes act as the source of the mean flow baroclinicity in the lower levels and result in stronger eddy heat fluxes. Reducing surface friction alone does not result in efficient elimination of the boundary layer PV gradient, but the equilibrium state temperature gradient is still largely influenced by surface friction and its response to changes in surface friction is not monotonic. In the regime of strong surface friction, with reduced poleward eddy heat flux, a strong temperature gradient is still retained. When the surface friction is sufficiently weak along with the stronger zonal wind, the critical level at the center of the jet drops below the surface. As a result, in the lower levels, the eddy heat flux forcing on the mean flow moves away from the center of the jet and the equilibrium state varies only slightly with the strength of the vertical momentum diffusion in the boundary layer. 2009-6 J. Atmos. Sci. 66 1612-1632 0 10.1175/2008JAS2914.1 A β-plane multilevel quasigeostrophic channel model with interactive static stability and a simplified parameterization of atmospheric boundary layer physics is used to study the role of different boundary layer processes in eddy equilibration and their relative effect in maintaining the strong boundary layer potential vorticity (PV) gradient. The model results show that vertical thermal diffusion, along with the surface heat exchange, is primarily responsible for limiting PV homogenization by baroclinic eddies in the boundary layer. Under fixed SST boundary conditions, these two processes act as the source of the mean flow baroclinicity in the lower levels and result in stronger eddy heat fluxes. Reducing surface friction alone does not result in efficient elimination of the boundary layer PV gradient, but the equilibrium state temperature gradient is still largely influenced by surface friction and its response to changes in surface friction is not monotonic. In the regime of strong surface friction, with reduced poleward eddy heat flux, a strong temperature gradient is still retained. When the surface friction is sufficiently weak along with the stronger zonal wind, the critical level at the center of the jet drops below the surface. As a result, in the lower levels, the eddy heat flux forcing on the mean flow moves away from the center of the jet and the equilibrium state varies only slightly with the strength of the vertical momentum diffusion in the boundary layer. Zhang Y. Stone P. H. Solomon A. 19551 Article Methane mixing ratios measured at a tall tower are compared to model predictions to estimate surface emissions of CH4 in Central California for October–December 2007 using an inverse technique. Predicted CH4 mixing ratios are calculated based on spatially resolved a priori CH4 emissions and simulated atmospheric trajectories. The atmospheric trajectories, along with surface footprints, are computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) coupled to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. An uncertainty analysis is performed to provide quantitative uncertainties in estimated CH4 emissions. Three inverse model estimates of CH4 emissions are reported. First, linear regressions of modeled and measured CH4 mixing ratios obtain slopes of 0.73 ± 0.11 and 1.09 ± 0.14 using California-specific and Edgar 3.2 emission maps, respectively, suggesting that actual CH4 emissions were about 37 ± 21% higher than California-specific inventory estimates. Second, a Bayesian “source” analysis suggests that livestock emissions are 63 ± 22% higher than the a priori estimates. Third, a Bayesian “region” analysis is carried out for CH4 emissions from 13 subregions, which shows that inventory CH4 emissions from the Central Valley are underestimated and uncertainties in CH4 emissions are reduced for subregions near the tower site, yielding best estimates of flux from those regions consistent with “source” analysis results. The uncertainty reductions for regions near the tower indicate that a regional network of measurements will be necessary to provide accurate estimates of surface CH4 emissions for multiple regions. 2009-8 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D16302 0 10.1029/2008JD011671 Methane mixing ratios measured at a tall tower are compared to model predictions to estimate surface emissions of CH4 in Central California for October–December 2007 using an inverse technique. Predicted CH4 mixing ratios are calculated based on spatially resolved a priori CH4 emissions and simulated atmospheric trajectories. The atmospheric trajectories, along with surface footprints, are computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) coupled to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. An uncertainty analysis is performed to provide quantitative uncertainties in estimated CH4 emissions. Three inverse model estimates of CH4 emissions are reported. First, linear regressions of modeled and measured CH4 mixing ratios obtain slopes of 0.73 ± 0.11 and 1.09 ± 0.14 using California-specific and Edgar 3.2 emission maps, respectively, suggesting that actual CH4 emissions were about 37 ± 21% higher than California-specific inventory estimates. Second, a Bayesian “source” analysis suggests that livestock emissions are 63 ± 22% higher than the a priori estimates. Third, a Bayesian “region” analysis is carried out for CH4 emissions from 13 subregions, which shows that inventory CH4 emissions from the Central Valley are underestimated and uncertainties in CH4 emissions are reduced for subregions near the tower site, yielding best estimates of flux from those regions consistent with “source” analysis results. The uncertainty reductions for regions near the tower indicate that a regional network of measurements will be necessary to provide accurate estimates of surface CH4 emissions for multiple regions. Zhao C. Andrews A. E. Bianco L. et al. 19552 Article The trend and variability of global ocean heat transport for the period 1958–2004 are investigated using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) analysis. The ocean model is forced with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis winds from 1958 to 2001 and with QuikSCAT winds from 2002 to 2004. The assimilation is based on a sequential estimation algorithm, with observations from the historical archive of hydrographic profiles supplemented by ship intake measurements, moored hydrographic observations and remotely sensed sea surface temperature. Heat transport is calculated using temperature and velocity from the ocean analysis. Mean heat transport from the analysis generally agrees with previously published estimates from observational and modeling studies. Trends of heat transport show a range of behaviors. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans there is mostly increasing poleward heat transport with two important exceptions. In the Atlantic Ocean there is decreasing heat transport around 50°N and 60°N, and in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans there is decreasing heat transport near 10°S. There is also prominent interannual and decadal variability in all of the ocean basins. The results suggest that ocean heat transport variability is primarily determined by the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which is controlled by complex processes governing fresh water flux in the northern North Atlantic and surface wind stress. However, the role of temperature variability increases at high latitude, particularly in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Eddies play an important role in heat transport in the Gulf Stream and its extension in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Kuroshio and its extension in the Pacific Ocean and enhanced Subtropical cells (STCs) affect heat transport estimates in the tropics. In the northern North Atlantic Ocean, a small increase in meridional heat transport and a slight weakening of MOC are detected. Weakening in the northern North Atlantic MOC mainly arises from a freshening in the Labrador Sea and slowdown of the overflows from the Nordic Seas into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Trends in North Atlantic surface momentum forcing are uniform across several atmospheric reanalyses, however there is less agreement in the role of precipitation in forcing trends of MOC and this exists as a primary source of uncertainty in our analysis. 2009-11 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114 C11009 0 10.1029/2008JC005190 The trend and variability of global ocean heat transport for the period 1958–2004 are investigated using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) analysis. The ocean model is forced with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis winds from 1958 to 2001 and with QuikSCAT winds from 2002 to 2004. The assimilation is based on a sequential estimation algorithm, with observations from the historical archive of hydrographic profiles supplemented by ship intake measurements, moored hydrographic observations and remotely sensed sea surface temperature. Heat transport is calculated using temperature and velocity from the ocean analysis. Mean heat transport from the analysis generally agrees with previously published estimates from observational and modeling studies. Trends of heat transport show a range of behaviors. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans there is mostly increasing poleward heat transport with two important exceptions. In the Atlantic Ocean there is decreasing heat transport around 50°N and 60°N, and in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans there is decreasing heat transport near 10°S. There is also prominent interannual and decadal variability in all of the ocean basins. The results suggest that ocean heat transport variability is primarily determined by the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which is controlled by complex processes governing fresh water flux in the northern North Atlantic and surface wind stress. However, the role of temperature variability increases at high latitude, particularly in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Eddies play an important role in heat transport in the Gulf Stream and its extension in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Kuroshio and its extension in the Pacific Ocean and enhanced Subtropical cells (STCs) affect heat transport estimates in the tropics. In the northern North Atlantic Ocean, a small increase in meridional heat transport and a slight weakening of MOC are detected. Weakening in the northern North Atlantic MOC mainly arises from a freshening in the Labrador Sea and slowdown of the overflows from the Nordic Seas into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Trends in North Atlantic surface momentum forcing are uniform across several atmospheric reanalyses, however there is less agreement in the role of precipitation in forcing trends of MOC and this exists as a primary source of uncertainty in our analysis. Zheng Y. Giese B. 19553 Article The seven papers in this special issue are grouped into five categories: UAV platforms and platform systems; UAV sensors and sensor systems; UAV data processing; UAV telemetry; and UAV applications. 2009-3 IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 47 687-689 0 10.1109/TGRS.2009.2013059 The seven papers in this special issue are grouped into five categories: UAV platforms and platform systems; UAV sensors and sensor systems; UAV data processing; UAV telemetry; and UAV applications. Zhou G. Q. Ambrosia V. Gasiewski A. J. Bland G. 19554 Article A depth-dependent boundary layer lapse rate was empirically deduced from 156 radiosondes released during six month-long research cruises to the southeast Pacific sampling a variety of stratocumulus conditions. The lapse-rate dependence on boundary layer height is weak, decreasing from a best fit of 7.6 to 7.2 K km−1 as the boundary layer deepens from 800 m to 2 km. Ship-based cloud-base heights up to 800 m correspond well to lifting condensation levels, indicating well-mixed conditions, with cloud bases >800 m often 200–600 m higher than the lifting condensation levels. The lapse rates were combined with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer 11-μm-derived cloud-top temperatures and satellite microwave-derived sea surface temperatures to estimate stratocumulus cloud-top heights. The October-mean cloud-top height structure of the southeast Pacific was then spatially and diurnally characterized. Coastal shoaling is apparent, but so is a significant along-coast cloud-top height gradient, with a pronounced elevation of the cloud-top heights above the Arica Bight at 20°S. Diurnal cloud-top height variations (inferred from irregular 4-times-daily sampling) can locally reach 250 m in amplitude, and they can help to visualize offshore propagation of free-tropospheric vertical motions. A shallow boundary layer associated with the Chilean coastal jet expands to its north and west in the afternoon. Cloud-top heights above the Arica Bight region are depressed in the afternoon, which may mean that increased subsidence from sensible heating of the Andes dominates an afternoon increase in convergence/upward motion at the exit of the Chilean coastal jet. In the southeast Atlantic during October, the stratocumulus cloud-top heights are typically lower than those in the southeast Pacific. A coastal jet region can also be identified through its low cloud-top heights. Coastal shoaling of the South Atlantic stratocumulus region is mostly uniform with latitude, in keeping with the more linear Namibian/Angolan coastline. The southeast Atlantic shallow cloudy boundary layer extends farther offshore than in the southeast Pacific, particularly at 15°S. 2009-9 J. Climate 22 4652-4666 0 10.1175/2009JCLI2708.1 A depth-dependent boundary layer lapse rate was empirically deduced from 156 radiosondes released during six month-long research cruises to the southeast Pacific sampling a variety of stratocumulus conditions. The lapse-rate dependence on boundary layer height is weak, decreasing from a best fit of 7.6 to 7.2 K km−1 as the boundary layer deepens from 800 m to 2 km. Ship-based cloud-base heights up to 800 m correspond well to lifting condensation levels, indicating well-mixed conditions, with cloud bases >800 m often 200–600 m higher than the lifting condensation levels. The lapse rates were combined with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer 11-μm-derived cloud-top temperatures and satellite microwave-derived sea surface temperatures to estimate stratocumulus cloud-top heights. The October-mean cloud-top height structure of the southeast Pacific was then spatially and diurnally characterized. Coastal shoaling is apparent, but so is a significant along-coast cloud-top height gradient, with a pronounced elevation of the cloud-top heights above the Arica Bight at 20°S. Diurnal cloud-top height variations (inferred from irregular 4-times-daily sampling) can locally reach 250 m in amplitude, and they can help to visualize offshore propagation of free-tropospheric vertical motions. A shallow boundary layer associated with the Chilean coastal jet expands to its north and west in the afternoon. Cloud-top heights above the Arica Bight region are depressed in the afternoon, which may mean that increased subsidence from sensible heating of the Andes dominates an afternoon increase in convergence/upward motion at the exit of the Chilean coastal jet. In the southeast Atlantic during October, the stratocumulus cloud-top heights are typically lower than those in the southeast Pacific. A coastal jet region can also be identified through its low cloud-top heights. Coastal shoaling of the South Atlantic stratocumulus region is mostly uniform with latitude, in keeping with the more linear Namibian/Angolan coastline. The southeast Atlantic shallow cloudy boundary layer extends farther offshore than in the southeast Pacific, particularly at 15°S. Zuidema P. Painemal D. de Szoeke S. P. Fairall C. W. 19555 Article In October 2007 the NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown sailed southward within 300 km of the coast of Ecuador and Peru, sampling surface meteorology, air–sea turbulent and radiative fluxes, cloud properties, and upper-air soundings from the equator to 20°S. Two distinct water masses characterize the coastal region: cold-pool water below 19°C in the Southern Hemisphere, and warm-pool water above 20°C to the north, with a transition between the water masses at 2.5°S. Net turbulent and radiative fluxes warm the cool water south of 2.5°S by 100 W m−2 but do not warm the equatorial water significantly. Winds blow parallel to the shore, about 5 m s−1 over the cold pool and 7 m s−1 over the equator. Stratocumulus clouds are remarkably solid over the coastal cold pool, with only brief periods of partial clearing, mostly in the afternoon. Lower aerosol concentrations and thicker clouds observed farther from the coast on 22–23 October are coincident with a pocket of open cells seen to the west and southwest of the ship. Observations from this cruise and other NOAA Stratus cruises (2001 and 2003–07) are suitable for comparison with model simulations and provide context for future field experiments. These datasets are publicly available. 2009-1 J. Climate 22 458-464 0 10.1175/2008JCLI2555.1 In October 2007 the NOAA ship Ronald H. Brown sailed southward within 300 km of the coast of Ecuador and Peru, sampling surface meteorology, air–sea turbulent and radiative fluxes, cloud properties, and upper-air soundings from the equator to 20°S. Two distinct water masses characterize the coastal region: cold-pool water below 19°C in the Southern Hemisphere, and warm-pool water above 20°C to the north, with a transition between the water masses at 2.5°S. Net turbulent and radiative fluxes warm the cool water south of 2.5°S by 100 W m−2 but do not warm the equatorial water significantly. Winds blow parallel to the shore, about 5 m s−1 over the cold pool and 7 m s−1 over the equator. Stratocumulus clouds are remarkably solid over the coastal cold pool, with only brief periods of partial clearing, mostly in the afternoon. Lower aerosol concentrations and thicker clouds observed farther from the coast on 22–23 October are coincident with a pocket of open cells seen to the west and southwest of the ship. Observations from this cruise and other NOAA Stratus cruises (2001 and 2003–07) are suitable for comparison with model simulations and provide context for future field experiments. These datasets are publicly available. de Szoeke S. P. Fairall C. W. Pezoa S. 19556 Article Macro- and microphysical properties of single-layer stratiform mixed-phase clouds are derived from multiple years of lidar, radar, and radiosonde observations. Measurements were made as part of the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment (MPACE) and the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) in Barrow, Alaska, and Eureka, Nunavut, Canada, respectively. Single-layer mixed-phase clouds occurred between 4% and 26% of the total time observed, varying with season and location. They had mean cloud-base heights between 700 and 2100 m and thicknesses between 200 and 700 m. Seasonal mean cloud optical depths ranged from 2.2 up. The clouds existed at temperatures of 242–271 K and occurred under different wind conditions, depending on season. Utilizing retrievals from a combination of lidar, radar, and microwave radiometer, mean cloud microphysical properties were derived, with mean liquid effective diameters estimated from 16 to 49 μm, mean liquid number densities on the order of 104–105 L−1, and mean water contents estimated between 0.07 and 0.28 g m−3. Ice precipitation was shown to have mean ice effective diameters of 50–125 μm, mean ice number densities on the order of 10 L−1, and mean water contents estimated between 0.012 and 0.031 g m−3. Mean cloud liquid water paths ranged from 25 to 100 g m−2. All results are compared to previous studies, and potential retrieval errors are discussed. Additionally, seasonal variation in macro- and microphysical properties was highlighted. Finally, fraction of liquid water to ice mass was shown to decrease with decreasing temperature. 2009-9 J. Atmos. Sci. 66 2874-2887 0 10.1175/2009JAS3029.1 Macro- and microphysical properties of single-layer stratiform mixed-phase clouds are derived from multiple years of lidar, radar, and radiosonde observations. Measurements were made as part of the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment (MPACE) and the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) in Barrow, Alaska, and Eureka, Nunavut, Canada, respectively. Single-layer mixed-phase clouds occurred between 4% and 26% of the total time observed, varying with season and location. They had mean cloud-base heights between 700 and 2100 m and thicknesses between 200 and 700 m. Seasonal mean cloud optical depths ranged from 2.2 up. The clouds existed at temperatures of 242–271 K and occurred under different wind conditions, depending on season. Utilizing retrievals from a combination of lidar, radar, and microwave radiometer, mean cloud microphysical properties were derived, with mean liquid effective diameters estimated from 16 to 49 μm, mean liquid number densities on the order of 104–105 L−1, and mean water contents estimated between 0.07 and 0.28 g m−3. Ice precipitation was shown to have mean ice effective diameters of 50–125 μm, mean ice number densities on the order of 10 L−1, and mean water contents estimated between 0.012 and 0.031 g m−3. Mean cloud liquid water paths ranged from 25 to 100 g m−2. All results are compared to previous studies, and potential retrieval errors are discussed. Additionally, seasonal variation in macro- and microphysical properties was highlighted. Finally, fraction of liquid water to ice mass was shown to decrease with decreasing temperature. de Boer G. Eloranta E. W. Shupe M. D. 19460 Book_Section The ultimate purpose of environmental studies is the forecast of its natural evolution. A prerequisite before a prediction is to retrieve at best the state of the environment. Data assimilation is the ensemble of techniques which, starting from heterogeneous information, permit to retrieve the initial state of a flow. In the first part, the mathematical models governing geophysical flows are presented together with the networks of observations of the atmosphere and of the ocean. In variational methods, we seek for the minimum of a functional estimating the discrepancy between the solution of the model and the observation. The derivation of the optimality system, using the adjoint state, permits to compute a gradient which is used in the optimization. The definition of the cost function permits to take into account the available statistical information through the choice of metrics in the space of observation and in the space of the initial condition. Some examples are presented on simplified models, especially an application in oceanography. Among the tools of optimal control, the adjoint model permits to carry out sensitivity studies, but if we look for the sensitivity of the prediction with respect to the observations, then a second-order analysis should be considered. One of the first methods used for assimilating data in oceanography is the nudging method, adding a forcing term in the equations. A variational variant of nudging method is described and also a so-called “back and forth” nudging method. The proper orthogonal decomposition method is introduced in order to reduce the cost of the variational method. For assimilating data, stochastic methods can be considered, being based on the Kalman filter extended to nonlinear problems, but the inconvenience of this method consists in the difficulty of handling huge covariance matrices. The dimension of the systems used for operational purposes (several hundred of millions of variables) requires to work with reduced variable techniques. The ensemble Kalman filter method, which is a Monte-Carlo implementation of the Bayesian update problem, is described. A considerable amount of information on geophysical flows is provided by satellites displaying images of their evolution, the assimilation of images into numerical models is a challenge for the future: variational methods are successfully considered in this perspective. 2009-1 Elsevier 14 279-306 0 978-0-444-51893-4 10.1016/S1570-8659(08)00206-8 The ultimate purpose of environmental studies is the forecast of its natural evolution. A prerequisite before a prediction is to retrieve at best the state of the environment. Data assimilation is the ensemble of techniques which, starting from heterogeneous information, permit to retrieve the initial state of a flow. In the first part, the mathematical models governing geophysical flows are presented together with the networks of observations of the atmosphere and of the ocean. In variational methods, we seek for the minimum of a functional estimating the discrepancy between the solution of the model and the observation. The derivation of the optimality system, using the adjoint state, permits to compute a gradient which is used in the optimization. The definition of the cost function permits to take into account the available statistical information through the choice of metrics in the space of observation and in the space of the initial condition. Some examples are presented on simplified models, especially an application in oceanography. Among the tools of optimal control, the adjoint model permits to carry out sensitivity studies, but if we look for the sensitivity of the prediction with respect to the observations, then a second-order analysis should be considered. One of the first methods used for assimilating data in oceanography is the nudging method, adding a forcing term in the equations. A variational variant of nudging method is described and also a so-called “back and forth” nudging method. The proper orthogonal decomposition method is introduced in order to reduce the cost of the variational method. For assimilating data, stochastic methods can be considered, being based on the Kalman filter extended to nonlinear problems, but the inconvenience of this method consists in the difficulty of handling huge covariance matrices. The dimension of the systems used for operational purposes (several hundred of millions of variables) requires to work with reduced variable techniques. The ensemble Kalman filter method, which is a Monte-Carlo implementation of the Bayesian update problem, is described. A considerable amount of information on geophysical flows is provided by satellites displaying images of their evolution, the assimilation of images into numerical models is a challenge for the future: variational methods are successfully considered in this perspective. Ewald B. Penland M. C. Penland M. C. 19468 Book_Section In addition to sensing the atmosphere, as described in Chapter 15, it is also possible to use GNSS signals as remote sensing radars, in both altimetry or scatterometry configurations. Chapter 16 overviews the novel area of remote-sensing the environment using bistatically reflected GNSS signals. Basic topics discussed include: reflection geometry, signal processing, ocean scattering, and surface modeling theory and potential applications. In addition, this chapter presents the applications of ocean altimetry, ocean scatterometry (wind and wave sensing), land sensing, and ice sensing, using the latest results from aircraft and spacecraft experiments. Included are Octave/MATLAB scripts that are capable of calculating specular reflection points on the Earth's surface as well as complete system models for generating multidimensional reflected signal maps. Additionally, a C based software receiver is included together with three space-based data sets (one from the ocean, one over land, and a third over sea ice) to allow readers to pursue their own ideas using real bistatic GNSS reflections data. 2009-1 Artech House The GNSS Technology and Applications Series 399-436 0 978-1-59693-329-3 In addition to sensing the atmosphere, as described in Chapter 15, it is also possible to use GNSS signals as remote sensing radars, in both altimetry or scatterometry configurations. Chapter 16 overviews the novel area of remote-sensing the environment using bistatically reflected GNSS signals. Basic topics discussed include: reflection geometry, signal processing, ocean scattering, and surface modeling theory and potential applications. In addition, this chapter presents the applications of ocean altimetry, ocean scatterometry (wind and wave sensing), land sensing, and ice sensing, using the latest results from aircraft and spacecraft experiments. Included are Octave/MATLAB scripts that are capable of calculating specular reflection points on the Earth's surface as well as complete system models for generating multidimensional reflected signal maps. Additionally, a C based software receiver is included together with three space-based data sets (one from the ocean, one over land, and a third over sea ice) to allow readers to pursue their own ideas using real bistatic GNSS reflections data. Gleason S. Lowe S. Zavorotny V. Zavorotny V. Zavorotny V.