19559 Article The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with wind jets through the gaps in the Central American mountains at Tehuantepec, Papagayo, and Panama are substantially warmer (colder) than the surrounding ocean during El Niño (La Niña) events. Ocean dynamics generate the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the gap wind regions as the surface fluxes damp the SSTs anomalies, while the Ekman heat transport is generally in quadrature with the anomalies. The ENSO-driven warming is associated with large-scale deepening of the thermocline; with the cold thermocline water at greater depths during El Niño in the NETP, it is less likely to be vertically mixed to the surface, particularly in the gap wind regions where the thermocline is normally very close to the surface. The thermocline deepening is enhanced to the south of the Costa Rica Dome in the Papagayo region, which contributes to the local ENSO-driven SST anomalies. The NETP thermocline changes are due to coastal Kelvin waves that initiate westward-propagating Rossby waves, and possibly ocean eddies, rather than by local Ekman pumping. These findings were confirmed with regional ocean model experiments: only integrations that included interannually varying ocean boundary conditions were able to simulate the thermocline deepening and localized warming in the NETP during El Niño events; the simulation with variable surface fluxes, but boundary conditions that repeated the seasonal cycle, did not. 2010-5 J. Climate 25 3549-3565 0 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00320.1 The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with wind jets through the gaps in the Central American mountains at Tehuantepec, Papagayo, and Panama are substantially warmer (colder) than the surrounding ocean during El Niño (La Niña) events. Ocean dynamics generate the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the gap wind regions as the surface fluxes damp the SSTs anomalies, while the Ekman heat transport is generally in quadrature with the anomalies. The ENSO-driven warming is associated with large-scale deepening of the thermocline; with the cold thermocline water at greater depths during El Niño in the NETP, it is less likely to be vertically mixed to the surface, particularly in the gap wind regions where the thermocline is normally very close to the surface. The thermocline deepening is enhanced to the south of the Costa Rica Dome in the Papagayo region, which contributes to the local ENSO-driven SST anomalies. The NETP thermocline changes are due to coastal Kelvin waves that initiate westward-propagating Rossby waves, and possibly ocean eddies, rather than by local Ekman pumping. These findings were confirmed with regional ocean model experiments: only integrations that included interannually varying ocean boundary conditions were able to simulate the thermocline deepening and localized warming in the NETP during El Niño events; the simulation with variable surface fluxes, but boundary conditions that repeated the seasonal cycle, did not. Alexander M. A. Seo H. Xie S.-P. Scott J. D. 19560 Article Two atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted with specified terrestrial snow conditions representative of 1980–99 and 2080–99. The snow states are obtained from twentieth-century and twenty-first-century coupled climate model integrations under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and greenhouse gas concentrations are set to 1980–99 values in both atmospheric model experiments to isolate the effect of the snow changes. The reduction in snow cover in the twenty-first century relative to the twentieth century increases the solar radiation absorbed by the surface, and it enhances the upward longwave radiation and latent and sensible fluxes that warm the overlying atmosphere. The maximum twenty-first-century minus twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT) differences are relatively small (<3°C) compared with those due to Arctic sea ice changes (10°C). However, they are continental in scale and are largest in fall and spring, when they make a significant contribution to the overall warming over Eurasia and North America in the twenty-first century. The circulation response to the snow changes, while of modest amplitude, involves multiple components, including a local low-level trough, remote Rossby wave trains, an annular pattern that is strongest in the stratosphere, and a hemispheric increase in geopotential height. 2010-12 J. Climate 23 6430-6437 0 10.1175/2010JCLI3899.1 Two atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted with specified terrestrial snow conditions representative of 1980–99 and 2080–99. The snow states are obtained from twentieth-century and twenty-first-century coupled climate model integrations under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and greenhouse gas concentrations are set to 1980–99 values in both atmospheric model experiments to isolate the effect of the snow changes. The reduction in snow cover in the twenty-first century relative to the twentieth century increases the solar radiation absorbed by the surface, and it enhances the upward longwave radiation and latent and sensible fluxes that warm the overlying atmosphere. The maximum twenty-first-century minus twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT) differences are relatively small (<3°C) compared with those due to Arctic sea ice changes (10°C). However, they are continental in scale and are largest in fall and spring, when they make a significant contribution to the overall warming over Eurasia and North America in the twenty-first century. The circulation response to the snow changes, while of modest amplitude, involves multiple components, including a local low-level trough, remote Rossby wave trains, an annular pattern that is strongest in the stratosphere, and a hemispheric increase in geopotential height. Alexander M. A. Tomas R. Deser C. Lawrence D. M. 19561 Article Previous studies suggest that extratropical atmospheric variability influences the tropics via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in which fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter and the resulting springtime subtropical SST anomalies alter the atmosphere–ocean system over the tropics in the following summer, fall, and winter. Here, the authors test the SFM hypothesis by imposing NPO-related surface heat flux forcing in an atmospheric GCM coupled to a reduced gravity ocean model in the tropics and a slab ocean in the extratropics. The forcing is only imposed through the first winter, and then the model is free to evolve through the following winter. The evolution of the coupled model response to the forcing is consistent with the SFM hypothesis: the NPO-driven surface fluxes cause positive SST anomalies to form in the central and eastern subtropics during winter; these anomalies propagate toward the equator along with westerly wind anomalies during spring, reach the equator in summer, and then amplify, which leads to an ENSO event in the following winter. The anomalies reach the equator through a combination of thermodynamically coupled air–sea interactions, namely, the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback and equatorial ocean dynamics. The initial off-equatorial anomaly propagates toward the equator through a relaxation of the climatological easterly winds south of the dominant SST anomalies, which leads to a reduction in upward latent heat flux. These westerly anomalies reach the equator during boreal summer, where they can excite downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves. The connection between off-equatorial variations and tropical ENSO-like conditions may also occur via the excitation of westward-propagating equatorial Rossby waves during spring, which reflect off of the western boundary as Kelvin waves, depressing the thermocline in the eastern Pacific during the following summer. NPO-related anomalies that form during the first winter in the tropical Pacific may also contribute to the development of an El Niño event in the following winter. The imposition of the NPO-related forcing caused warming in the ENSO region in 70% of the ensemble of 60 simulations; therefore, the response depends on the state of the tropical atmosphere–ocean system. For years where the control simulation was poised to develop into a neutral or negative ENSO event, the addition of the NPO heat fluxes tended to cause anomalous warming in the tropical Pacific in the following fall/winter; if the control was heading toward a warm ENSO event, the imposition of NPO forcing tends to reduce the amplitude of that event. 2010-6 J. Climate 23 2885-2901 0 10.1175/2010JCLI3205.1 Previous studies suggest that extratropical atmospheric variability influences the tropics via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in which fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter and the resulting springtime subtropical SST anomalies alter the atmosphere–ocean system over the tropics in the following summer, fall, and winter. Here, the authors test the SFM hypothesis by imposing NPO-related surface heat flux forcing in an atmospheric GCM coupled to a reduced gravity ocean model in the tropics and a slab ocean in the extratropics. The forcing is only imposed through the first winter, and then the model is free to evolve through the following winter. The evolution of the coupled model response to the forcing is consistent with the SFM hypothesis: the NPO-driven surface fluxes cause positive SST anomalies to form in the central and eastern subtropics during winter; these anomalies propagate toward the equator along with westerly wind anomalies during spring, reach the equator in summer, and then amplify, which leads to an ENSO event in the following winter. The anomalies reach the equator through a combination of thermodynamically coupled air–sea interactions, namely, the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback and equatorial ocean dynamics. The initial off-equatorial anomaly propagates toward the equator through a relaxation of the climatological easterly winds south of the dominant SST anomalies, which leads to a reduction in upward latent heat flux. These westerly anomalies reach the equator during boreal summer, where they can excite downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves. The connection between off-equatorial variations and tropical ENSO-like conditions may also occur via the excitation of westward-propagating equatorial Rossby waves during spring, which reflect off of the western boundary as Kelvin waves, depressing the thermocline in the eastern Pacific during the following summer. NPO-related anomalies that form during the first winter in the tropical Pacific may also contribute to the development of an El Niño event in the following winter. The imposition of the NPO-related forcing caused warming in the ENSO region in 70% of the ensemble of 60 simulations; therefore, the response depends on the state of the tropical atmosphere–ocean system. For years where the control simulation was poised to develop into a neutral or negative ENSO event, the addition of the NPO heat fluxes tended to cause anomalous warming in the tropical Pacific in the following fall/winter; if the control was heading toward a warm ENSO event, the imposition of NPO forcing tends to reduce the amplitude of that event. Alexander M. A. Vimont D. J. Chang P. Scott J. D. 19562 Article The surface of the Arctic Ocean in summer is a mix of sea ice and water in both leads and melt ponds. Here we use data collected at multiple sites during the year-long experiment to study the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) to develop a bulk turbulent flux algorithm for predicting the surface fluxes of momentum and sensible and latent heat over the Arctic Ocean during summer from readily measured or modelled quantities. The distinctive aerodynamic feature of summer sea ice is that the leads and melt ponds create vertical ice faces that the wind can push against; momentum transfer to the surface is thus enhanced through form drag. In effect, summer sea ice behaves aerodynamically like the marginal ice zone, which is another surface that consists of sea ice and water. In our bulk flux algorithm, we therefore combine our SHEBA measurements of the neutral-stability drag coefficient at a reference height of 10 m, , with similar measurements from marginal ice zones that have been reported in the literature to create a unified parametrization for for summer sea ice and for any marginal ice zone. This parametrization predicts from a second-order polynomial in ice concentration. Our bulk flux algorithm also includes expressions for the roughness lengths for temperature and humidity, introduces new profile stratification corrections for stable stratification, and effectively eliminates the singularities that often occur in iterative flux algorithms for very light winds. In summary, this new algorithm seems capable of estimating the friction velocity u* (a surrogate for the momentum flux) over summer sea ice with an absolute accuracy of 0.02–0.03 m s−1; the sensible heat flux, with an accuracy of about 6 W m−2; and the latent heat flux, with an accuracy of 3.5 W m−2. 2010-4 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136 927-943 0 10.1002/qj.618 The surface of the Arctic Ocean in summer is a mix of sea ice and water in both leads and melt ponds. Here we use data collected at multiple sites during the year-long experiment to study the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) to develop a bulk turbulent flux algorithm for predicting the surface fluxes of momentum and sensible and latent heat over the Arctic Ocean during summer from readily measured or modelled quantities. The distinctive aerodynamic feature of summer sea ice is that the leads and melt ponds create vertical ice faces that the wind can push against; momentum transfer to the surface is thus enhanced through form drag. In effect, summer sea ice behaves aerodynamically like the marginal ice zone, which is another surface that consists of sea ice and water. In our bulk flux algorithm, we therefore combine our SHEBA measurements of the neutral-stability drag coefficient at a reference height of 10 m, , with similar measurements from marginal ice zones that have been reported in the literature to create a unified parametrization for for summer sea ice and for any marginal ice zone. This parametrization predicts from a second-order polynomial in ice concentration. Our bulk flux algorithm also includes expressions for the roughness lengths for temperature and humidity, introduces new profile stratification corrections for stable stratification, and effectively eliminates the singularities that often occur in iterative flux algorithms for very light winds. In summary, this new algorithm seems capable of estimating the friction velocity u* (a surrogate for the momentum flux) over summer sea ice with an absolute accuracy of 0.02–0.03 m s−1; the sensible heat flux, with an accuracy of about 6 W m−2; and the latent heat flux, with an accuracy of 3.5 W m−2. Andreas E. L. Horst T. W. Grachev A. A. Persson P. O. G. Fairall C. W. Guest P. S. Jordan R. E. 19563 Article The sea spray generation function dF/dr0 predicts the rate at which droplets of initial radius r0 are produced at the sea surface. Because this function is not readily measurable in the marine environment, however, it is often inferred from measurements of the near-surface droplet concentration, C(r0), through an assumed velocity scale, the effective spray production velocity. This paper proceeds in reverse, though: It uses a reliable estimate of dF/dr0 and 13 sets of measurements of C(r0) over the ocean to calculate the implied effective production velocity, Veff, for droplets with initial radii r0 from 5 to 300 μm. It then compares these Veff values with four candidate expressions for this production velocity: the dry-deposition velocity, VDh; the mean wind speed at the significant wave amplitude (A1/3), the standard deviation in vertical droplet velocity, σwd; and laboratory measurements of the ejection velocity of jet droplets, Vej. The velocity scales and Vej agree best with the implied Veff values for 20 ≤ r0 ≤ 300 μm. The deposition velocity, VDh, which is the velocity most commonly used in this application, agrees worst with the Veff values. For droplets with r0 less than about 20 μm, the analysis also rejects the main hypothesis: that dF/dr0 and C(r0) can be related through a velocity scale. These smaller droplets simply have residence times that are too long for spray concentrations to be in local equilibrium with the spray production rate. 2010-12 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 115 C12065 0 10.1029/2010JC006458 The sea spray generation function dF/dr0 predicts the rate at which droplets of initial radius r0 are produced at the sea surface. Because this function is not readily measurable in the marine environment, however, it is often inferred from measurements of the near-surface droplet concentration, C(r0), through an assumed velocity scale, the effective spray production velocity. This paper proceeds in reverse, though: It uses a reliable estimate of dF/dr0 and 13 sets of measurements of C(r0) over the ocean to calculate the implied effective production velocity, Veff, for droplets with initial radii r0 from 5 to 300 μm. It then compares these Veff values with four candidate expressions for this production velocity: the dry-deposition velocity, VDh; the mean wind speed at the significant wave amplitude (A1/3), the standard deviation in vertical droplet velocity, σwd; and laboratory measurements of the ejection velocity of jet droplets, Vej. The velocity scales and Vej agree best with the implied Veff values for 20 ≤ r0 ≤ 300 μm. The deposition velocity, VDh, which is the velocity most commonly used in this application, agrees worst with the Veff values. For droplets with r0 less than about 20 μm, the analysis also rejects the main hypothesis: that dF/dr0 and C(r0) can be related through a velocity scale. These smaller droplets simply have residence times that are too long for spray concentrations to be in local equilibrium with the spray production rate. Andreas E. L. Jones K. F. Fairall C. W. 19564 Article The Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment produced 18 000 h of turbulence data from the atmospheric surface layer over sea ice while the ice camp drifted for a year in the Beaufort Gyre. Multiple sites instrumented during SHEBA suggest only two aerodynamic seasons over sea ice. In “winter” (October 1997 through 14 May 1998 and 15 September 1998 through the end of the SHEBA deployment in early October 1998), the ice was compact and snow covered, and the snow was dry enough to drift and blow. In “summer” (15 May through 14 September 1998 in this dataset), the snow melted, and melt ponds and leads appeared and covered as much as 40% of the surface with open water. This paper develops a bulk turbulent flux algorithm to explain the winter data. This algorithm predicts the surface fluxes of momentum, and sensible and latent heat from more readily measured or modeled quantities. A main result of the analysis is that the roughness length for wind speed z0 does not depend on the friction velocity u* in the drifting snow regime (u* ≥ 0.30 m s−1) but, rather, is constant in the SHEBA dataset at about 2.3 × 10−4 m. Previous analyses that found z0 to increase with u* during drifting snow may have suffered from fictitious correlation because u* also appears in z0. The present analysis mitigates this fictitious correlation by plotting measured z0 against the corresponding u* computed from the bulk flux algorithm. Such plots, created with data from six different SHEBA sites, show z0 to be independent of the bulk u* for 0.15 < u* ≤ 0.65 m s−1. This study also evaluates the roughness lengths for temperature zT and humidity zQ, incorporates new profile stratification corrections for stable stratification, addresses the singularities that often occur in iterative flux algorithms in very light winds, and includes an extensive analysis of whether atmospheric stratification affects z0, zT, and zQ. 2010-2 J. Hydrometeor. 11 87-104 0 10.1175/2009JHM1102.1 The Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment produced 18 000 h of turbulence data from the atmospheric surface layer over sea ice while the ice camp drifted for a year in the Beaufort Gyre. Multiple sites instrumented during SHEBA suggest only two aerodynamic seasons over sea ice. In “winter” (October 1997 through 14 May 1998 and 15 September 1998 through the end of the SHEBA deployment in early October 1998), the ice was compact and snow covered, and the snow was dry enough to drift and blow. In “summer” (15 May through 14 September 1998 in this dataset), the snow melted, and melt ponds and leads appeared and covered as much as 40% of the surface with open water. This paper develops a bulk turbulent flux algorithm to explain the winter data. This algorithm predicts the surface fluxes of momentum, and sensible and latent heat from more readily measured or modeled quantities. A main result of the analysis is that the roughness length for wind speed z0 does not depend on the friction velocity u* in the drifting snow regime (u* ≥ 0.30 m s−1) but, rather, is constant in the SHEBA dataset at about 2.3 × 10−4 m. Previous analyses that found z0 to increase with u* during drifting snow may have suffered from fictitious correlation because u* also appears in z0. The present analysis mitigates this fictitious correlation by plotting measured z0 against the corresponding u* computed from the bulk flux algorithm. Such plots, created with data from six different SHEBA sites, show z0 to be independent of the bulk u* for 0.15 < u* ≤ 0.65 m s−1. This study also evaluates the roughness lengths for temperature zT and humidity zQ, incorporates new profile stratification corrections for stable stratification, addresses the singularities that often occur in iterative flux algorithms in very light winds, and includes an extensive analysis of whether atmospheric stratification affects z0, zT, and zQ. Andreas E. L. Persson P. O. G. Jordan R. E. Horst T. W. Guest P. S. Grachev A. A. Fairall C. W. 19565 Article N/A 2010-6 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 723-726 0 10.1175/2010BAMS2906.1 N/A Averyt K. 19566 Article Changes in climate as projected by state-of-the-art climate models are likely to result in novel combinations of climate and topo-edaphic factors that will have substantial impacts on the distribution and persistence of natural vegetation and animal species. We have used multivariate techniques to quantify some of these changes; the method employed was the Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) algorithm. We used the MSTC to quantitatively define ecoregions for the People’s Republic of China for historical and projected future climates. Using the Köppen–Trewartha classification system we were able to quantify some of the temperature and precipitation relationships of the ecoregions. We then tested the hypothesis that impacts to environments will be lower for ecoregions that retain their approximate geographic locations. Our results showed that climate in 2050, as projected from anthropogenic forcings using the Hadley Centre HadCM3 general circulation model, were sufficient to create novel environmental conditions even where ecoregions remained spatially stable; cluster number was found to be of paramount importance in detecting novelty. Continental-scale analyses are generally able to locate potentially static ecoregions but they may be insufficient to define the position of those reserves at a grid cell-by-grid cell basis. 2010-1 Clim. Change 98 277-305 0 10.1007/s10584-009-9622-2 Changes in climate as projected by state-of-the-art climate models are likely to result in novel combinations of climate and topo-edaphic factors that will have substantial impacts on the distribution and persistence of natural vegetation and animal species. We have used multivariate techniques to quantify some of these changes; the method employed was the Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) algorithm. We used the MSTC to quantitatively define ecoregions for the People’s Republic of China for historical and projected future climates. Using the Köppen–Trewartha classification system we were able to quantify some of the temperature and precipitation relationships of the ecoregions. We then tested the hypothesis that impacts to environments will be lower for ecoregions that retain their approximate geographic locations. Our results showed that climate in 2050, as projected from anthropogenic forcings using the Hadley Centre HadCM3 general circulation model, were sufficient to create novel environmental conditions even where ecoregions remained spatially stable; cluster number was found to be of paramount importance in detecting novelty. Continental-scale analyses are generally able to locate potentially static ecoregions but they may be insufficient to define the position of those reserves at a grid cell-by-grid cell basis. Baker B. Diaz H. F. Hargrove W. Hoffman F. 19567 Article A fast response ozone analyzer based on the ozone-nitric oxide chemiluminescence method was integrated into the NOAA-ESRL flux system to achieve the first ship-borne, direct ozone flux measurements over the open ocean. Air was collected from an inlet at 18 m height over the ocean surface mounted to the bow-jackstaff and via a 30 m-long sampling line to the ozone instrument on the ship deck. A "puff" system was used for accurate and regular determination of the sample transport time (lag) between the inlet and the chemical analyzer. A Nafion-membrane dryer facilitated removal of fast water vapor fluctuations, which eliminated the need for quenching and density correction of the ozone signal. The sampling-analyzer system was found to have a ~0.25–0.40 s response time at a sensitivity of ~2800 counts s−1 per ppbv of ozone. Quality control and data filtering procedures for eliminating data that did not meet measurement requirements were critically evaluated. The new ozone flux system was deployed aboard the NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown, and evaluated using results obtained during several research cruises off the coasts of the North and South America continents, yielding ozone deposition velocities (mean ± standard error) ranging from 0.009±0.001 cm s−1 to 0.24±0.020 cm s−1. 2010-4 Atmos. Meas. Tech. 3 441-455 0 10.5194/amt-3-441-2010 A fast response ozone analyzer based on the ozone-nitric oxide chemiluminescence method was integrated into the NOAA-ESRL flux system to achieve the first ship-borne, direct ozone flux measurements over the open ocean. Air was collected from an inlet at 18 m height over the ocean surface mounted to the bow-jackstaff and via a 30 m-long sampling line to the ozone instrument on the ship deck. A "puff" system was used for accurate and regular determination of the sample transport time (lag) between the inlet and the chemical analyzer. A Nafion-membrane dryer facilitated removal of fast water vapor fluctuations, which eliminated the need for quenching and density correction of the ozone signal. The sampling-analyzer system was found to have a ~0.25–0.40 s response time at a sensitivity of ~2800 counts s−1 per ppbv of ozone. Quality control and data filtering procedures for eliminating data that did not meet measurement requirements were critically evaluated. The new ozone flux system was deployed aboard the NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown, and evaluated using results obtained during several research cruises off the coasts of the North and South America continents, yielding ozone deposition velocities (mean ± standard error) ranging from 0.009±0.001 cm s−1 to 0.24±0.020 cm s−1. Bariteau L. Helmig D. Fairall C. W. Hare J. E. Hueber J. Lang E. K. 19569 Article Mass spectrometric measurement of DMS by atmospheric pressure ionization with an isotopically labeled standard (APIMS-ILS) is a sensitive method with sufficient bandpass for direct flux measurements by eddy correlation. Use of an isotopically labeled internal standard greatly reduces instrumental drift, improving accuracy and precision. APIMS-ILS has been used in several recent campaigns to study ocean-atmosphere gas transfer and the chemical budget of DMS in the marine boundary layer. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the method and errors associated with DMS flux measurement from ship platforms. The APIMS-ILS instrument used by most groups today has a sensitivity of 100–200 counts s−1 pptv−1, which is shown to be more than sufficient for flux measurement by eddy covariance. Mass spectral backgrounds (blanks) are determined by stripping DMS from ambient air with gold. The instrument is found to exhibit some high frequency signal loss, with a half-power frequency of ≈1 Hz, but a correction based on an empirically determined instrument response function is presented. Standard micrometeorological assumptions of steady state and horizontal uniformity are found to be appropriate for DMS flux measurement, but rapid changes in mean DMS mixing ratio may serve as a warning that measured flux does not represent the true surface flux. In addition, bias in surface flux estimates arising from the flux divergence is not generally significant in the surface layer, but under conditions of lowered inversion and high flux may become so. The effects of error in motion corrections and of vertical motion within the surface layer concentration gradient are discussed and the estimated maximum error from these effects is ≤18%. 2010-1 Atmos. Meas. Tech. 3 1-20 0 10.5194/amt-3-1-2010 Mass spectrometric measurement of DMS by atmospheric pressure ionization with an isotopically labeled standard (APIMS-ILS) is a sensitive method with sufficient bandpass for direct flux measurements by eddy correlation. Use of an isotopically labeled internal standard greatly reduces instrumental drift, improving accuracy and precision. APIMS-ILS has been used in several recent campaigns to study ocean-atmosphere gas transfer and the chemical budget of DMS in the marine boundary layer. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the method and errors associated with DMS flux measurement from ship platforms. The APIMS-ILS instrument used by most groups today has a sensitivity of 100–200 counts s−1 pptv−1, which is shown to be more than sufficient for flux measurement by eddy covariance. Mass spectral backgrounds (blanks) are determined by stripping DMS from ambient air with gold. The instrument is found to exhibit some high frequency signal loss, with a half-power frequency of ≈1 Hz, but a correction based on an empirically determined instrument response function is presented. Standard micrometeorological assumptions of steady state and horizontal uniformity are found to be appropriate for DMS flux measurement, but rapid changes in mean DMS mixing ratio may serve as a warning that measured flux does not represent the true surface flux. In addition, bias in surface flux estimates arising from the flux divergence is not generally significant in the surface layer, but under conditions of lowered inversion and high flux may become so. The effects of error in motion corrections and of vertical motion within the surface layer concentration gradient are discussed and the estimated maximum error from these effects is ≤18%. Blomquist B. W. Huebert B. J. Fairall C. W. Faloona I. C. 19570 Article Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1–2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near–real time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at the China Meteorological Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The volume of data accumulated daily is 245 GB (1.6 million global fields). This is offered to the scientific community as a new resource for research and education. The TIGGE data policy is to make each forecast accessible via the Internet 48 h after it was initially issued by each originating center. Quicker access can also be granted for field experiments or projects of particular interest to the World Weather Research Programme and THORPEX. A few examples of initial results based on TIGGE data are discussed in this paper, and the case is made for additional research in several directions. 2010-8 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 1059-1072 0 10.1175/2010bams2853.1 Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1–2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near–real time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at the China Meteorological Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The volume of data accumulated daily is 245 GB (1.6 million global fields). This is offered to the scientific community as a new resource for research and education. The TIGGE data policy is to make each forecast accessible via the Internet 48 h after it was initially issued by each originating center. Quicker access can also be granted for field experiments or projects of particular interest to the World Weather Research Programme and THORPEX. A few examples of initial results based on TIGGE data are discussed in this paper, and the case is made for additional research in several directions. Bougeault P. Toth Z. Bishop C. Brown B. Burridge D. Chen D.H. Ebert B. Fuentes M. Hamill T. M. Mylne K. Nicolau J. Paccagnella T. Park Y.Y. Parsons D. Raoult B. Schuster D. Dias P. S. Swinbank R. Takeuchi Y. Tennant W. Wilson L. Worley S. 19571 Article Surface turbulent fluxes are key pathways through which the atmosphere is coupled with the ocean. They provide mechanisms through which momentum, energy, moisture, and materials such as CO2 are transferred between the ocean and atmosphere. Surface fluxes are also important players in vertical and horizontal transport in the atmosphere and the ocean. There have been attempts to estimate surface fluxes directly from satellite observations; however, they are typically calculated from observations of surface and near‑surface variables. Recent improvements in the measurement of vector winds, air temperatures, and atmospheric humidities have all contributed to better estimation of surface fluxes from satellite observations. These advances are discussed in the context of applications, with examples from a tropical cyclone and a very strong mid-latitude storm. Proposed future systems that use improved instrumentation and collocate observations of winds, temperatures, and humidities will increase the accuracy beyond current capabilities. Targets for a variety of important climate-related processes are provided. 2010-12 Oceanography 23 36-51 0 10.5670/oceanog.2010.04 Surface turbulent fluxes are key pathways through which the atmosphere is coupled with the ocean. They provide mechanisms through which momentum, energy, moisture, and materials such as CO2 are transferred between the ocean and atmosphere. Surface fluxes are also important players in vertical and horizontal transport in the atmosphere and the ocean. There have been attempts to estimate surface fluxes directly from satellite observations; however, they are typically calculated from observations of surface and near‑surface variables. Recent improvements in the measurement of vector winds, air temperatures, and atmospheric humidities have all contributed to better estimation of surface fluxes from satellite observations. These advances are discussed in the context of applications, with examples from a tropical cyclone and a very strong mid-latitude storm. Proposed future systems that use improved instrumentation and collocate observations of winds, temperatures, and humidities will increase the accuracy beyond current capabilities. Targets for a variety of important climate-related processes are provided. Bourassa M. A. Gille S. T. Jackson D. L. Roberts J. B. Wick G. A. 19572 Article This report is intended for use by federal, state, and administrative judges who are confronted with a legal dispute involving a water resource that is alleged to be impacted by climate change. It may be useful as well for attorneys litigating or experts working on water adjudications. The purpose of this document is to summarize the manner in which climate change may impact rights and frameworks established under state and federal law concerning water resources and to anticipate the issues that water-related climate claims will pose to legal decisionmakers. This report arose out of the November 11-12, 2009, workshop, "Water Law and Climate Change," held in Reno, Nevada, and sponsored by the National Judicial College and Dividing the Waters, a nonprofit organization of federal and state water adjudicators. No judge who attended the workshop has reviewed or approved of the content of this document. This document does not reflect the personal opinion of any individual judge. 2010-12 Environ. Law Reporter 40 11215-11228 0 This report is intended for use by federal, state, and administrative judges who are confronted with a legal dispute involving a water resource that is alleged to be impacted by climate change. It may be useful as well for attorneys litigating or experts working on water adjudications. The purpose of this document is to summarize the manner in which climate change may impact rights and frameworks established under state and federal law concerning water resources and to anticipate the issues that water-related climate claims will pose to legal decisionmakers. This report arose out of the November 11-12, 2009, workshop, "Water Law and Climate Change," held in Reno, Nevada, and sponsored by the National Judicial College and Dividing the Waters, a nonprofit organization of federal and state water adjudicators. No judge who attended the workshop has reviewed or approved of the content of this document. This document does not reflect the personal opinion of any individual judge. Brickey C. Engel K. Jacobs K. . . . Udall B. 19573 Article The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration. 2010-10 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 1397-1406 0 10.1175/2010BAMS3013.1 The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration. Brunet G. Shapiro M. Hoskins B. Moncrieff M. Dole R. M. Kiladis G. N. al. et 19575 Article The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long-standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability. 2010-3 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 116 D05102 0 10.1029/2010JD014995 The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long-standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability. Butchart N. A. Cionni I. Charlton-Perez A. J. . . . Perlwitz J. al. et 19578 Article Multicentury preindustrial control simulations from six of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are used to examine the relationship between low-frequency precipitation variations in the Great Plains (GP) region of the United States and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study builds on previous work performed with atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs during the twentieth century and extends it to a coupled model context and longer time series. The climate models used in this study reproduce the precipitation climatology over the United States reasonably well, with maximum precipitation occurring in early summer, as observed. The modeled precipitation time series exhibit negative “decadal” anomalies, identified using a 5-yr running mean, of amplitude comparable to that of the twentieth-century droughts. It is found that low-frequency anomalies over the GP are part of a large-scale pattern of precipitation variations, characterized by anomalies of the same sign as in the GP region over Europe and southern South America and anomalies of opposite sign over northern South America, India, and Australia. The large-scale pattern of the precipitation anomalies is associated with global-scale atmospheric circulation changes; during wet periods in the GP, geopotential heights are raised in the tropics and high latitudes and lowered in the midlatitudes in most models, with the midlatitude jets displaced toward the equator in both hemispheres. Statistically significant correlations are found between the decadal precipitation anomalies in the GP region and tropical Pacific SSTs in all the models. The influence of other oceans (Indian and tropical and North Atlantic), which previous studies have identified as potentially important, appears to be model dependent. 2010-6 J. Climate 23 2941-2958 0 10.1175/2009JCLI3291.1 Multicentury preindustrial control simulations from six of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are used to examine the relationship between low-frequency precipitation variations in the Great Plains (GP) region of the United States and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study builds on previous work performed with atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs during the twentieth century and extends it to a coupled model context and longer time series. The climate models used in this study reproduce the precipitation climatology over the United States reasonably well, with maximum precipitation occurring in early summer, as observed. The modeled precipitation time series exhibit negative “decadal” anomalies, identified using a 5-yr running mean, of amplitude comparable to that of the twentieth-century droughts. It is found that low-frequency anomalies over the GP are part of a large-scale pattern of precipitation variations, characterized by anomalies of the same sign as in the GP region over Europe and southern South America and anomalies of opposite sign over northern South America, India, and Australia. The large-scale pattern of the precipitation anomalies is associated with global-scale atmospheric circulation changes; during wet periods in the GP, geopotential heights are raised in the tropics and high latitudes and lowered in the midlatitudes in most models, with the midlatitude jets displaced toward the equator in both hemispheres. Statistically significant correlations are found between the decadal precipitation anomalies in the GP region and tropical Pacific SSTs in all the models. The influence of other oceans (Indian and tropical and North Atlantic), which previous studies have identified as potentially important, appears to be model dependent. Capotondi A. Alexander M. A. 19579 Article An ongoing limitation of common regression-based infrared (IR) satellite sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms has been the lack of sufficient in situ skin temperature measurements for derivation of the algorithm coefficients. Since IR brightness temperatures respond to the skin temperature, use of the more numerous subsurface observations to tune the algorithms introduces uncertainty into the resulting SST products. Coincident in situ skin and subsurface SST measurements from three years of cruises are used to derive parallel skin and subsurface multichannel SST (MCSST)-type regression algorithms to determine the extent to which improved accuracy can be obtained using the skin measurements. Through use of only coincident measurements, the advantage offered by the greater volume of available subsurface observations is eliminated. Surprisingly, we find no accuracy improvement using skin SST algorithms relative to algorithms derived from the research-grade ship-borne subsurface temperature measurements used in our analysis. However, better accuracy was found relative to algorithms derived from subsurface observations whose accuracy was degraded to that of buoys. The results are robust with regard to satellite resolution, collocation criteria, geographical regions, and time of day. The accuracy differences are found to be generally consistent with the effects of: (1) increased measurement uncertainty of radiometric measurements relative to research-grade subsurface observations, and (2) differences in spatial variability between the skin SST and temperature-at-depth. The subsurface algorithms are regenerated after degrading the subsurface measurements by adding increasing levels of Gaussian white noise to determine the amplitude of the additional variability required to ensure equal accuracy between the skin and subsurface products. The required supplemental noise ranges between 0.10 and 0.17 K for all data combined and generally decreases with tighter collocation windows and higher-resolution satellite observations. Variogram analysis and filtering of the in situ measurements suggest that differences in measurement uncertainty between the infrared radiometers and the subsurface sensors can explain 0.07–0.10 K of the required noise, while differences in spatial variability with depth can account for up to 0.07–0.10 K of the residual noise. A key consequence is that spatial averages of the skin temperature over satellite footprints of 2 km or more, while potentially biased in the mean, may exhibit less variance relative to point samples of the subsurface temperature than to the actual radiometric skin temperature. 2010-11 Remote Sens. Environ. 114 2666-2678 0 10.1016/j.rse.2010.06.003 An ongoing limitation of common regression-based infrared (IR) satellite sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms has been the lack of sufficient in situ skin temperature measurements for derivation of the algorithm coefficients. Since IR brightness temperatures respond to the skin temperature, use of the more numerous subsurface observations to tune the algorithms introduces uncertainty into the resulting SST products. Coincident in situ skin and subsurface SST measurements from three years of cruises are used to derive parallel skin and subsurface multichannel SST (MCSST)-type regression algorithms to determine the extent to which improved accuracy can be obtained using the skin measurements. Through use of only coincident measurements, the advantage offered by the greater volume of available subsurface observations is eliminated. Surprisingly, we find no accuracy improvement using skin SST algorithms relative to algorithms derived from the research-grade ship-borne subsurface temperature measurements used in our analysis. However, better accuracy was found relative to algorithms derived from subsurface observations whose accuracy was degraded to that of buoys. The results are robust with regard to satellite resolution, collocation criteria, geographical regions, and time of day. The accuracy differences are found to be generally consistent with the effects of: (1) increased measurement uncertainty of radiometric measurements relative to research-grade subsurface observations, and (2) differences in spatial variability between the skin SST and temperature-at-depth. The subsurface algorithms are regenerated after degrading the subsurface measurements by adding increasing levels of Gaussian white noise to determine the amplitude of the additional variability required to ensure equal accuracy between the skin and subsurface products. The required supplemental noise ranges between 0.10 and 0.17 K for all data combined and generally decreases with tighter collocation windows and higher-resolution satellite observations. Variogram analysis and filtering of the in situ measurements suggest that differences in measurement uncertainty between the infrared radiometers and the subsurface sensors can explain 0.07–0.10 K of the required noise, while differences in spatial variability with depth can account for up to 0.07–0.10 K of the residual noise. A key consequence is that spatial averages of the skin temperature over satellite footprints of 2 km or more, while potentially biased in the mean, may exhibit less variance relative to point samples of the subsurface temperature than to the actual radiometric skin temperature. Castro S. L. Wick G. A. Minnett P. J. Jessup A. T. Emery W. J. 19580 Article On the basis of the analytic techniques presented in the first of these two companion papers [ J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 27, 2169 (2010) ] we present the complete asymptotic analysis of the axial beam scintillation index for coherent Gaussian beams on the ground-to-space propagation paths. The ratio of turbulence layer thickness to overall propagation path length contributes an additional small parameter to the analysis. We show that it is possible to use three dimensionless parameters to describe the problem and that the general arrangement of the asymptotic regions established in our earlier work [ Waves Random Media 4, 243 (1994) ]) is preserved. We find that on a slant propagation path, collimated beams can experience the unusual double-scattering-dominated scintillation found originally for focused beams. 2010-10 J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 27 2180-2187 0 10.1364/JOSAA.27.002180 On the basis of the analytic techniques presented in the first of these two companion papers [ J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 27, 2169 (2010) ] we present the complete asymptotic analysis of the axial beam scintillation index for coherent Gaussian beams on the ground-to-space propagation paths. The ratio of turbulence layer thickness to overall propagation path length contributes an additional small parameter to the analysis. We show that it is possible to use three dimensionless parameters to describe the problem and that the general arrangement of the asymptotic regions established in our earlier work [ Waves Random Media 4, 243 (1994) ]) is preserved. We find that on a slant propagation path, collimated beams can experience the unusual double-scattering-dominated scintillation found originally for focused beams. Charnotskii M. I. 19581 Article We extend our theory of on-axis beam scintillations [Waves Random Media 4, 243 (1994)] for the case of propagation on slant turbulent paths, where turbulence is concentrated in a relatively thin layer near the transmitter. Our technique is based on the parabolic equation for optical wave propagation and the Markov approximation for the calculation of statistical moments of beam intensity. This first of two companion papers presents the details of the path integral formulation of the solution for the fourth-order coherence function. We also discuss in detail two analytic techniques that can be used for the treatment of the path integrals. 2010-10 J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 27 2169-2179 0 10.1364/JOSAA.27.002169 We extend our theory of on-axis beam scintillations [Waves Random Media 4, 243 (1994)] for the case of propagation on slant turbulent paths, where turbulence is concentrated in a relatively thin layer near the transmitter. Our technique is based on the parabolic equation for optical wave propagation and the Markov approximation for the calculation of statistical moments of beam intensity. This first of two companion papers presents the details of the path integral formulation of the solution for the fourth-order coherence function. We also discuss in detail two analytic techniques that can be used for the treatment of the path integrals. Charnotskii M. I. 19583 Article The evolution of an African easterly wave is described using ground-based radar and ancillary datasets from three locations in West Africa: Niamey, Niger (continental), Dakar, Senegal (coastal), and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde (oceanic). The data were collected during the combined African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA AMMA (NAMMA) campaigns in August–September 2006. Two precipitation events originated within the wave circulation and propagated with the wave across West Africa. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) associated with these events were identified at all three sites ahead of, within, and behind the 700-mb wave trough. An additional propagating event was indentified that originated east of the wave and moved through the wave circulation. The MCS activity associated with this event did not show any appreciable change resulting from its interaction with the wave. The MCS characteristics at each site were different, likely due to a combination of life cycle effects and changes in relative phasing between the propagating systems and the position of low-level convergence and thermodynamic instability associated with the wave. At the ocean and coastal sites, the most intense convection occurred ahead of the wave trough where both high CAPE and low-level convergence were concentrated. At the continental site, convection was relatively weak owing to the fact that the wave dynamics and thermodynamics were not in sync when the systems passed through Niamey. The only apparent effect of the wave on MCS activity at the continental site was to extend the period of precipitation activity during one of the events that passed through coincident with the 700-mb wave trough. Convective organization at the land sites was primarily in the form of squall lines and linear MCSs oriented perpendicular to the low-level shear. The organization at the oceanic site was more complicated, transitioning from linear MCSs to widespread stratiform cloud with embedded convection. The precipitation activity was also much longer lived at the oceanic site due to the wave becoming nearly stationary near the Cape Verdes, providing an environment supportive of deep convection for an extended period. 2010-1 J. Atmos. Sci. 67 3-25 0 10.1175/2009jas3141.1 The evolution of an African easterly wave is described using ground-based radar and ancillary datasets from three locations in West Africa: Niamey, Niger (continental), Dakar, Senegal (coastal), and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde (oceanic). The data were collected during the combined African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA AMMA (NAMMA) campaigns in August–September 2006. Two precipitation events originated within the wave circulation and propagated with the wave across West Africa. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) associated with these events were identified at all three sites ahead of, within, and behind the 700-mb wave trough. An additional propagating event was indentified that originated east of the wave and moved through the wave circulation. The MCS activity associated with this event did not show any appreciable change resulting from its interaction with the wave. The MCS characteristics at each site were different, likely due to a combination of life cycle effects and changes in relative phasing between the propagating systems and the position of low-level convergence and thermodynamic instability associated with the wave. At the ocean and coastal sites, the most intense convection occurred ahead of the wave trough where both high CAPE and low-level convergence were concentrated. At the continental site, convection was relatively weak owing to the fact that the wave dynamics and thermodynamics were not in sync when the systems passed through Niamey. The only apparent effect of the wave on MCS activity at the continental site was to extend the period of precipitation activity during one of the events that passed through coincident with the 700-mb wave trough. Convective organization at the land sites was primarily in the form of squall lines and linear MCSs oriented perpendicular to the low-level shear. The organization at the oceanic site was more complicated, transitioning from linear MCSs to widespread stratiform cloud with embedded convection. The precipitation activity was also much longer lived at the oceanic site due to the wave becoming nearly stationary near the Cape Verdes, providing an environment supportive of deep convection for an extended period. Cifelli R. Lang T. Rutledge S. Guy N. Zipser E. Zawislak J. Holzworth R. 19584 Article A 1-D variational (1DVAR) retrieval technique has been developed for obtaining temperature and humidity profiles from observations of the Ground-Based Scanning Radiometer (GSR) operating at millimeter-wavelengths. The GSR was deployed in two Arctic experiments held at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program in Barrow, Alaska. Temperature and humidity profiles retrieved with the 1DVAR technique are compared with simultaneous radiosonde observations (RAOBs) during the Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign (February-March 2007). Examples and statistical results are presented and discussed to demonstrate the achieved retrieval accuracy and vertical resolution. The 1DVAR retrievals based on GSR observations improve the NWP background up to 5 km, particularly in the lower 3 km. The present implementation achieved an root-mean-square (rms) error with respect to RAOB within 1.5 K for temperature and 0.10 g/kg for humidity profiles of up to 5 km in height, with 2.9 and 2.0 degrees of freedom for signal, respectively. Using the interlevel covariance definition of the vertical resolution, the 1DVAR retrievals showed a < 1-km vertical resolution of up to 5 km for both temperature and humidity profiles. The integrated water vapor obtained from the retrieved humidity profiles showed an rms accuracy within 0.10 kg/m2 , with small bias (< 0.01 kg/m2) and excellent correlation (0.96). 2010-3 IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 48 1381-1388 0 10.1109/TGRS.2009.2030500 A 1-D variational (1DVAR) retrieval technique has been developed for obtaining temperature and humidity profiles from observations of the Ground-Based Scanning Radiometer (GSR) operating at millimeter-wavelengths. The GSR was deployed in two Arctic experiments held at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program in Barrow, Alaska. Temperature and humidity profiles retrieved with the 1DVAR technique are compared with simultaneous radiosonde observations (RAOBs) during the Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign (February-March 2007). Examples and statistical results are presented and discussed to demonstrate the achieved retrieval accuracy and vertical resolution. The 1DVAR retrievals based on GSR observations improve the NWP background up to 5 km, particularly in the lower 3 km. The present implementation achieved an root-mean-square (rms) error with respect to RAOB within 1.5 K for temperature and 0.10 g/kg for humidity profiles of up to 5 km in height, with 2.9 and 2.0 degrees of freedom for signal, respectively. Using the interlevel covariance definition of the vertical resolution, the 1DVAR retrievals showed a < 1-km vertical resolution of up to 5 km for both temperature and humidity profiles. The integrated water vapor obtained from the retrieved humidity profiles showed an rms accuracy within 0.10 kg/m2 , with small bias (< 0.01 kg/m2) and excellent correlation (0.96). Cimini D. Westwater E. R. Gasiewski A. J. 19585 Article An important question in assessing twentieth-century climate change is to what extent have ENSO-related variations contributed to the observed trends. Isolating such contributions is challenging for several reasons, including ambiguities arising from how ENSO itself is defined. In particular, defining ENSO in terms of a single index and ENSO-related variations in terms of regressions on that index, as done in many previous studies, can lead to wrong conclusions. This paper argues that ENSO is best viewed not as a number but as an evolving dynamical process for this purpose. Specifically, ENSO is identified with the four dynamical eigenvectors of tropical SST evolution that are most important in the observed evolution of ENSO events. This definition is used to isolate the ENSO-related component of global SST variations on a month-by-month basis in the 136-yr (1871–2006) Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST). The analysis shows that previously identified multidecadal variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all have substantial ENSO components. The long-term warming trends over these oceans are also found to have appreciable ENSO components, in some instances up to 40% of the total trend. The ENSO-unrelated component of 5-yr average SST variations, obtained by removing the ENSO-related component, is interpreted as a combination of anthropogenic, naturally forced, and internally generated coherent multidecadal variations. The following two surprising aspects of these ENSO-unrelated variations are emphasized: 1) a strong cooling trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and 2) a nearly zonally symmetric multidecadal tropical–extratropical seesaw that has amplified in recent decades. The latter has played a major role in modulating SSTs over the Indian Ocean. 2010-4 J. Climate 23 1381-1388 0 10.1175/2009jcli2735.1 An important question in assessing twentieth-century climate change is to what extent have ENSO-related variations contributed to the observed trends. Isolating such contributions is challenging for several reasons, including ambiguities arising from how ENSO itself is defined. In particular, defining ENSO in terms of a single index and ENSO-related variations in terms of regressions on that index, as done in many previous studies, can lead to wrong conclusions. This paper argues that ENSO is best viewed not as a number but as an evolving dynamical process for this purpose. Specifically, ENSO is identified with the four dynamical eigenvectors of tropical SST evolution that are most important in the observed evolution of ENSO events. This definition is used to isolate the ENSO-related component of global SST variations on a month-by-month basis in the 136-yr (1871–2006) Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST). The analysis shows that previously identified multidecadal variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all have substantial ENSO components. The long-term warming trends over these oceans are also found to have appreciable ENSO components, in some instances up to 40% of the total trend. The ENSO-unrelated component of 5-yr average SST variations, obtained by removing the ENSO-related component, is interpreted as a combination of anthropogenic, naturally forced, and internally generated coherent multidecadal variations. The following two surprising aspects of these ENSO-unrelated variations are emphasized: 1) a strong cooling trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and 2) a nearly zonally symmetric multidecadal tropical–extratropical seesaw that has amplified in recent decades. The latter has played a major role in modulating SSTs over the Indian Ocean. Compo G. P. Sardeshmukh P. D. 19586 Article Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual and longer timescales result from a combination of atmospheric and oceanic processes. These SST anomaly patterns may be due to intrinsic modes of atmospheric circulation variability that imprint themselves upon the SST field mainly via surface energy fluxes. Examples include SST fluctuations in the Southern Ocean associated with the Southern Annular Mode, a tripolar pattern of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a pan-Pacific mode known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (with additional contributions from oceanic processes). They may also result from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the tropical Atlantic Niño, and the cross-equatorial meridional modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Finally, patterns of SST variability may arise from intrinsic oceanic modes, notably the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. 2010-1 Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2 115-143 0 10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453 Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual and longer timescales result from a combination of atmospheric and oceanic processes. These SST anomaly patterns may be due to intrinsic modes of atmospheric circulation variability that imprint themselves upon the SST field mainly via surface energy fluxes. Examples include SST fluctuations in the Southern Ocean associated with the Southern Annular Mode, a tripolar pattern of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a pan-Pacific mode known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (with additional contributions from oceanic processes). They may also result from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the tropical Atlantic Niño, and the cross-equatorial meridional modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Finally, patterns of SST variability may arise from intrinsic oceanic modes, notably the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Deser C. Alexander M. A. Xie S.-P. Phillips A. S. 19587 Article This study compares the global distribution of 20th century SST and marine air temperature trends from a wide variety of data sets including un-interpolated archives as well as globally-complete reconstructions. Apart from the eastern equatorial Pacific, all datasets show consistency in their statistically significant trends, with warming everywhere except the far northwestern Atlantic; the largest warming trends are found in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Two of the SST reconstructions exhibit statistically significant cooling trends over the eastern equatorial Pacific, in disagreement with the un-interpolated SST and marine air temperature datasets which show statistically significant warming in this region. Twentieth century trends in tropical marine cloudiness, precipitation and SLP from independent data sets provide physically consistent evidence for a reduction in the strength of the atmospheric Walker Circulation accompanied by an eastward shift of deep convection from the western to the central equatorial Pacific. 2010-5 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L10701 0 10.1029/2010GL043321 This study compares the global distribution of 20th century SST and marine air temperature trends from a wide variety of data sets including un-interpolated archives as well as globally-complete reconstructions. Apart from the eastern equatorial Pacific, all datasets show consistency in their statistically significant trends, with warming everywhere except the far northwestern Atlantic; the largest warming trends are found in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Two of the SST reconstructions exhibit statistically significant cooling trends over the eastern equatorial Pacific, in disagreement with the un-interpolated SST and marine air temperature datasets which show statistically significant warming in this region. Twentieth century trends in tropical marine cloudiness, precipitation and SLP from independent data sets provide physically consistent evidence for a reduction in the strength of the atmospheric Walker Circulation accompanied by an eastward shift of deep convection from the western to the central equatorial Pacific. Deser C. Phillips A. S. Alexander M. A. 19588 Article The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below 850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century. 2010-1 J. Climate 23 333-351 0 10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1 The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below 850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century. Deser C. Tomas R. Alexander M. A. Lawrence D. M. 19589 Article Decadal fluctuations of the ocean and atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean significantly affect the weather and climate of North America and Eurasia. They also cause transitions between different states of marine ecosystems across the Pacific Ocean1, 2, 3. An important fraction of North Pacific low-frequency variability is linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation4, a climate pattern associated with decadal fluctuations of the ocean circulation. Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual variability with far-reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7. Here we use an ensemble of simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to show that the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with central Pacific El Niño force changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation. These changes in turn drive the decadal fluctuations of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Given that central Pacific El Niño events could become more frequent with increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere8, we infer that the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation may play an increasingly important role in shaping Pacific climate and marine ecosystems in the twenty-first century. 2010-11 Nat. Geosci. 3 762-765 0 10.1038/ngeo984 Decadal fluctuations of the ocean and atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean significantly affect the weather and climate of North America and Eurasia. They also cause transitions between different states of marine ecosystems across the Pacific Ocean1, 2, 3. An important fraction of North Pacific low-frequency variability is linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation4, a climate pattern associated with decadal fluctuations of the ocean circulation. Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual variability with far-reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7. Here we use an ensemble of simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to show that the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with central Pacific El Niño force changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation. These changes in turn drive the decadal fluctuations of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Given that central Pacific El Niño events could become more frequent with increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere8, we infer that the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation may play an increasingly important role in shaping Pacific climate and marine ecosystems in the twenty-first century. Di Lorenzo E. Cobb K. M. Furtado J. C. Schneider N. Anderson B. T. Bracco A. Alexander M. A. Vimont D. J. 19590 Article Several air quality forecasting ensembles were created from seven models, running in real-time during the 2006 Texas Air Quality (TEXAQS-II) experiment. These multi-model ensembles incorporated a diverse set of meteorological models, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories. Evaluation of individual model and ensemble forecasts of surface ozone and particulate matter (PM) was performed using data from 119 EPA AIRNow ozone sites and 38 PM sites during a 50-day period in August and September of 2006. From the original set of models, two new bias-corrected model data sets were built, either by applying a simple running mean average to the past 7 days of data or by a Kalman-Filter approach. From the original and two bias-corrected data sets, three ensembles were created by a simple averaging of the seven models. For further improvements three additional weighted model ensembles were created, where individual model weights were calculated using the singular value decomposition method. All six of the ensembles are compared to the individual models and to each other in terms of root mean square error, correlation, and contingency and probabilistic statistics. In most cases, each of the ensembles show improved skill compared to the best of the individual models. The over all best ensemble technique was found to be the combination of Kalman-Filtering and weighted averaging. PM2.5 aerosol ensembles demonstrated significant improvement gains, mostly because the original model's skill was very low. 2010-2 Atmos. Environ. 44 455-467 0 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.11.007 Several air quality forecasting ensembles were created from seven models, running in real-time during the 2006 Texas Air Quality (TEXAQS-II) experiment. These multi-model ensembles incorporated a diverse set of meteorological models, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories. Evaluation of individual model and ensemble forecasts of surface ozone and particulate matter (PM) was performed using data from 119 EPA AIRNow ozone sites and 38 PM sites during a 50-day period in August and September of 2006. From the original set of models, two new bias-corrected model data sets were built, either by applying a simple running mean average to the past 7 days of data or by a Kalman-Filter approach. From the original and two bias-corrected data sets, three ensembles were created by a simple averaging of the seven models. For further improvements three additional weighted model ensembles were created, where individual model weights were calculated using the singular value decomposition method. All six of the ensembles are compared to the individual models and to each other in terms of root mean square error, correlation, and contingency and probabilistic statistics. In most cases, each of the ensembles show improved skill compared to the best of the individual models. The over all best ensemble technique was found to be the combination of Kalman-Filtering and weighted averaging. PM2.5 aerosol ensembles demonstrated significant improvement gains, mostly because the original model's skill was very low. Djalalova I. Wilczak J. M. McKeen S. A. Grell G. A. Peckman S. Pagowski M. DelleMonache L. McQueen J. T. Tang Y. Lee P. McHenry J. Gong W. Bouchet V. Mathur R. 19591 Article A 10 year record of Arctic cloud fraction and radiative forcing has been generated using data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska site and the nearby NOAA Barrow Observatory (BRW) from June 1998 to May 2008. The cloud fractions (CFs) derived from ARM radar-lidar and ceilometer measurements increase significantly from March to May (0.57→0.84), remain relatively high (∼0.80–0.9) from May to October, and then decrease from November to the following March (0.8→0.57), having an annual average of 0.76. These CFs are comparable to those derived from ground-based radar-lidar observations during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment and from satellite observations over the western Arctic regions. The monthly means of estimated clear-sky and measured all-sky shortwave (SW)-down and longwave (LW)-down fluxes at the two facilities are almost identical with the annual mean differences less than 1.6 Wm−2. Values of LW cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are minimum (6 Wm−2) in March, then increase monotonically to reach maximum (63 Wm−2) in August, then decrease continuously to the following March. The cycle of SW CRF mirrors its LW counterpart with the greatest negative impact occurring during the snow-free months of July and August. On annual average, the negative SW CRFs and positive LW CRFs nearly cancel, resulting in annual average NET CRF of about 3.5 Wm−2 on the basis of the combined ARM and BRW analysis. Compared with other studies, we find that LW CRF does not change over the Arctic regions significantly, but NET CRFs change from negative to positive from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea, indicating that Barrow is at a critical latitude for neutral NET CRF. The sensitivity study has shown that LW CRFs increase with increasing cloud fraction, liquid water path, and radiating temperature with high positive correlations (0.8–0.9). Negative correlations are found for SW CRFs, but a strong positive correlation between SW CRF and surface albedo exists. 2010-9 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 0 10.1029/2009JD013489 A 10 year record of Arctic cloud fraction and radiative forcing has been generated using data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska site and the nearby NOAA Barrow Observatory (BRW) from June 1998 to May 2008. The cloud fractions (CFs) derived from ARM radar-lidar and ceilometer measurements increase significantly from March to May (0.57→0.84), remain relatively high (∼0.80–0.9) from May to October, and then decrease from November to the following March (0.8→0.57), having an annual average of 0.76. These CFs are comparable to those derived from ground-based radar-lidar observations during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment and from satellite observations over the western Arctic regions. The monthly means of estimated clear-sky and measured all-sky shortwave (SW)-down and longwave (LW)-down fluxes at the two facilities are almost identical with the annual mean differences less than 1.6 Wm−2. Values of LW cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are minimum (6 Wm−2) in March, then increase monotonically to reach maximum (63 Wm−2) in August, then decrease continuously to the following March. The cycle of SW CRF mirrors its LW counterpart with the greatest negative impact occurring during the snow-free months of July and August. On annual average, the negative SW CRFs and positive LW CRFs nearly cancel, resulting in annual average NET CRF of about 3.5 Wm−2 on the basis of the combined ARM and BRW analysis. Compared with other studies, we find that LW CRF does not change over the Arctic regions significantly, but NET CRFs change from negative to positive from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea, indicating that Barrow is at a critical latitude for neutral NET CRF. The sensitivity study has shown that LW CRFs increase with increasing cloud fraction, liquid water path, and radiating temperature with high positive correlations (0.8–0.9). Negative correlations are found for SW CRFs, but a strong positive correlation between SW CRF and surface albedo exists. Dong X. Xi B. Crosby K. Long C. N. Stone R. S. Shupe M. D. 19592 Article Parametric array systems are a promising tool for multifrequency acoustical tomography techniques for monitoring range dependent temperatures and current distributions in a complex ocean environment.The parametric array (PA) is a nonlinear transduction process that can generate a narrow beam of low frequency sound in a medium, through the interaction of co‐linear, intense, high frequency sound waves, called pump waves. The unique characteristic of a parametric array is found in its extremely narrow directivity pattern (1°–3° angular resolution) for low frequency acoustical signals. The effective width of the directivity pattern remains practically constant over a wide range of signal frequencies. The parametric array has become essentially a virtual acoustic end‐fire array that has been formed in the medium (water) by the non‐linear interaction of the two high frequency waves at their sum and difference frequencies. As a result, it radiates a sharp, low‐frequency, directional signal at the interaction frequency of its pump waves that propagates independently of the pump waves. 2010-4 Acoust. Today 6 20-26 0 10.1121/1.3467644 Parametric array systems are a promising tool for multifrequency acoustical tomography techniques for monitoring range dependent temperatures and current distributions in a complex ocean environment.The parametric array (PA) is a nonlinear transduction process that can generate a narrow beam of low frequency sound in a medium, through the interaction of co‐linear, intense, high frequency sound waves, called pump waves. The unique characteristic of a parametric array is found in its extremely narrow directivity pattern (1°–3° angular resolution) for low frequency acoustical signals. The effective width of the directivity pattern remains practically constant over a wide range of signal frequencies. The parametric array has become essentially a virtual acoustic end‐fire array that has been formed in the medium (water) by the non‐linear interaction of the two high frequency waves at their sum and difference frequencies. As a result, it radiates a sharp, low‐frequency, directional signal at the interaction frequency of its pump waves that propagates independently of the pump waves. Esipov I. B. Naugolnykh K. A. Timoshenko V. 19593 Article El Niño is widely recognized as a source of global climate variability. However, because of limited ocean observations during the early part of the twentieth century, little is known about El Niño events prior to the 1950s. An ocean model, driven with surface boundary conditions from a recently completed atmospheric reanalysis of the first half of the twentieth century, is used to provide the first comprehensive description of the structure and evolution of the 1918/19 El Niño. In contrast with previous descriptions, the modeled El Niño is one of the strongest of the twentieth century, comparable in intensity to the prominent events of 1982/83 and 1997/98. 2010-2 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 177-183 0 10.1175/2009bams2903.1 El Niño is widely recognized as a source of global climate variability. However, because of limited ocean observations during the early part of the twentieth century, little is known about El Niño events prior to the 1950s. An ocean model, driven with surface boundary conditions from a recently completed atmospheric reanalysis of the first half of the twentieth century, is used to provide the first comprehensive description of the structure and evolution of the 1918/19 El Niño. In contrast with previous descriptions, the modeled El Niño is one of the strongest of the twentieth century, comparable in intensity to the prominent events of 1982/83 and 1997/98. Giese B. Compo G. P. Slowey N. C. Sardeshmukh P. D. Carton J. A. Ray S. Whitaker J. S. 19594 Article Long-range correlations of noise fields in arbitrary inhomogeneous, moving or motionless fluids are studied in the ray approximation. Using the stationary phase method, two-point cross-correlation function of noise is shown to approximate the sum of the deterministic Green’s functions describing sound propagation in opposite directions between the two points. Explicit relations between amplitudes of respective ray arrivals in the noise cross-correlation function and the Green’s functions are obtained and verified against specific problems allowing an exact solution. Earlier results are extended by simultaneously accounting for sound absorption, arbitrary distribution of noise sources in a volume and on surfaces, and fluid inhomogeneity and motion. The information content of the noise cross-correlation function is discussed from the viewpoint of passive acoustic characterization of inhomogeneous flows. 2010-8 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 128 600-610 0 10.1121/1.3458815 Long-range correlations of noise fields in arbitrary inhomogeneous, moving or motionless fluids are studied in the ray approximation. Using the stationary phase method, two-point cross-correlation function of noise is shown to approximate the sum of the deterministic Green’s functions describing sound propagation in opposite directions between the two points. Explicit relations between amplitudes of respective ray arrivals in the noise cross-correlation function and the Green’s functions are obtained and verified against specific problems allowing an exact solution. Earlier results are extended by simultaneously accounting for sound absorption, arbitrary distribution of noise sources in a volume and on surfaces, and fluid inhomogeneity and motion. The information content of the noise cross-correlation function is discussed from the viewpoint of passive acoustic characterization of inhomogeneous flows. Godin O. A. 19595 Article Ambient noise in the ocean provides acoustic illumination, which can be used, similarly to daylight in the atmosphere, to visualize objects and characterize the environment. It has been shown theoretically that deterministic travel times between any two points in a moving or motionless, inhomogeneous, time-independent medium can be retrieved from the cross-correlation function of diffuse acoustic noise recorded at the two points, without a detailed knowledge of the noise field's sources or properties. In this paper, techniques are developed to account for receiver motion and suppress contributions due to powerful transient localized noise sources, such as nearby shipping, in order to enhance noise diffusivity. The data-processing techniques are applied to ambient noise recordings of opportunity, which were obtained as a by-product of a long-range sound propagation experiment in the Pacific Ocean. The feasibility of passive ocean acoustic tomography with ambient noise recorded at two vertical line arrays is demonstrated successfully. 2010-7 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 0 10.1029/2010GL043623 Ambient noise in the ocean provides acoustic illumination, which can be used, similarly to daylight in the atmosphere, to visualize objects and characterize the environment. It has been shown theoretically that deterministic travel times between any two points in a moving or motionless, inhomogeneous, time-independent medium can be retrieved from the cross-correlation function of diffuse acoustic noise recorded at the two points, without a detailed knowledge of the noise field's sources or properties. In this paper, techniques are developed to account for receiver motion and suppress contributions due to powerful transient localized noise sources, such as nearby shipping, in order to enhance noise diffusivity. The data-processing techniques are applied to ambient noise recordings of opportunity, which were obtained as a by-product of a long-range sound propagation experiment in the Pacific Ocean. The feasibility of passive ocean acoustic tomography with ambient noise recorded at two vertical line arrays is demonstrated successfully. Godin O. A. Zabotin N. A. Goncharov V. V. 19596 Article The propagation of a cold front and its interaction with foehn winds is investigated in an Alpine valley, based on observations collected during the field campaign of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) on 6 November 1999. The key instrument of this study is a Doppler lidar that had been operated in the Wipp Valley (Austria). The cold front approached the European Alps from the northwest, became distorted at the mountain barrier and entered the east– west aligned Inn Valley near the town of Innsbruck primarily via two passes. It continued to propagate towards Innsbruck from both valley directions as two separate fronts that eventually collided east of Innsbruck after part of the cold air had entered the adjacent north– south aligned Wipp Valley. A synthesis of Doppler lidar measurements with conventional meteorological data, including automatic weather stations and radiosondes, leads to the conclusion that the cold front in the Wipp Valley was an atmospheric density current characterized by an elevated head, a front-relative feeder flow and a typical propagation speed of 7 m s−1. The foehn flow on top of the density current caused strong wind shear and triggered shear-flow instability that led to the formation of a turbulent wake behind the head. As the density current propagated towards the Brenner Pass, it slowed down. The shape of the frontal surface varied in time. Its inclination of about 10°– 20° is steeper than previously reported for the Inn Valley but is consistent with other observations of atmospheric density currents. 2010-4 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136 962-967 0 10.1002/qj.609 The propagation of a cold front and its interaction with foehn winds is investigated in an Alpine valley, based on observations collected during the field campaign of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) on 6 November 1999. The key instrument of this study is a Doppler lidar that had been operated in the Wipp Valley (Austria). The cold front approached the European Alps from the northwest, became distorted at the mountain barrier and entered the east– west aligned Inn Valley near the town of Innsbruck primarily via two passes. It continued to propagate towards Innsbruck from both valley directions as two separate fronts that eventually collided east of Innsbruck after part of the cold air had entered the adjacent north– south aligned Wipp Valley. A synthesis of Doppler lidar measurements with conventional meteorological data, including automatic weather stations and radiosondes, leads to the conclusion that the cold front in the Wipp Valley was an atmospheric density current characterized by an elevated head, a front-relative feeder flow and a typical propagation speed of 7 m s−1. The foehn flow on top of the density current caused strong wind shear and triggered shear-flow instability that led to the formation of a turbulent wake behind the head. As the density current propagated towards the Brenner Pass, it slowed down. The shape of the frontal surface varied in time. Its inclination of about 10°– 20° is steeper than previously reported for the Inn Valley but is consistent with other observations of atmospheric density currents. Gohm A. Mayr G. J. Darby L. Banta R. M. 19597 Article The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group (MJOWG) has taken steps to promote the adoption of a uniform diagnostic and set of skill metrics for analyzing and assessing dynamical forecasts of the MJO. Here we describe the framework and initial implementation of the approach using real-time forecast data from multiple operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. The objectives of this activity are to provide a means to i) quantitatively compare skill of MJO forecasts across operational centers, ii) measure gains in forecast skill over time by a given center and the community as a whole, and iii) facilitate the development of a multimodel forecast of the MJO. The MJO diagnostic is based on extensive deliberations among the MJOWG in conjunction with input from a number of operational centers and makes use of the MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon. This forecast activity has been endorsed by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), the international body that fosters the development of atmospheric models for NWP and climate studies. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is hosting the acquisition of the forecast data, application of the MJO diagnostic, and real-time display of the standardized forecasts. The activity has contributed to the production of 1–2-week operational outlooks at NCEP and activities at other centers. Further enhancements of the diagnostic's implementation, including more extensive analysis, comparison, illustration, and verification of the contributions from the participating centers, will increase the usefulness and application of these forecasts and potentially lead to more skillful predictions of the MJO and indirectly extratropical and other weather variability (e.g., tropical cyclones) influenced by the MJO. The purpose of this article is to inform the larger scientific and operational forecast communities of the MJOWG forecast effort and invite participation from additional operational centers. 2010-9 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 1247-1258 0 10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1 The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group (MJOWG) has taken steps to promote the adoption of a uniform diagnostic and set of skill metrics for analyzing and assessing dynamical forecasts of the MJO. Here we describe the framework and initial implementation of the approach using real-time forecast data from multiple operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. The objectives of this activity are to provide a means to i) quantitatively compare skill of MJO forecasts across operational centers, ii) measure gains in forecast skill over time by a given center and the community as a whole, and iii) facilitate the development of a multimodel forecast of the MJO. The MJO diagnostic is based on extensive deliberations among the MJOWG in conjunction with input from a number of operational centers and makes use of the MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon. This forecast activity has been endorsed by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), the international body that fosters the development of atmospheric models for NWP and climate studies. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is hosting the acquisition of the forecast data, application of the MJO diagnostic, and real-time display of the standardized forecasts. The activity has contributed to the production of 1–2-week operational outlooks at NCEP and activities at other centers. Further enhancements of the diagnostic's implementation, including more extensive analysis, comparison, illustration, and verification of the contributions from the participating centers, will increase the usefulness and application of these forecasts and potentially lead to more skillful predictions of the MJO and indirectly extratropical and other weather variability (e.g., tropical cyclones) influenced by the MJO. The purpose of this article is to inform the larger scientific and operational forecast communities of the MJOWG forecast effort and invite participation from additional operational centers. Gottschalck J. . . . Weickmann K. M. al. et 19598 Article The late Eocene through earliest Oligocene (40–32 Ma) spans a major transition from greenhouse to icehouse climate, with net cooling and expansion of Antarctic glaciation shortly after the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) boundary. We investigated the response of the oceanic biosphere to these changes by reconstructing barite and CaCO3 accumulation rates in sediments from the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean. These data allow us to evaluate temporal and geographical variability in export production and CaCO3 preservation. Barite accumulation rates were on average higher in the warmer late Eocene than in the colder early Oligocene, but cool periods within the Eocene were characterized by peaks in both barite and CaCO3 accumulation in the equatorial region. We infer that climatic changes not only affected deep ocean ventilation and chemistry, but also had profound effects on surface water characteristics influencing export productivity. The ratio of CaCO3 to barite accumulation rates, representing the ratio of particulate inorganic C accumulation to Corg export, increased dramatically at the E/O boundary. This suggests that long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 due to organic carbon deposition to the seafloor decreased, potentially offsetting decreasing pCO2 levels and associated cooling. The relatively larger increase in CaCO3 accumulation compared to export production at the E/O suggests that the permanent deepening of the calcite compensation depth (CCD) at that time stems primarily from changes in deep water chemistry and not from increased carbonate production. 2010-9 Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 25 PA3212 0 10.1029/2010pa001932 The late Eocene through earliest Oligocene (40–32 Ma) spans a major transition from greenhouse to icehouse climate, with net cooling and expansion of Antarctic glaciation shortly after the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) boundary. We investigated the response of the oceanic biosphere to these changes by reconstructing barite and CaCO3 accumulation rates in sediments from the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean. These data allow us to evaluate temporal and geographical variability in export production and CaCO3 preservation. Barite accumulation rates were on average higher in the warmer late Eocene than in the colder early Oligocene, but cool periods within the Eocene were characterized by peaks in both barite and CaCO3 accumulation in the equatorial region. We infer that climatic changes not only affected deep ocean ventilation and chemistry, but also had profound effects on surface water characteristics influencing export productivity. The ratio of CaCO3 to barite accumulation rates, representing the ratio of particulate inorganic C accumulation to Corg export, increased dramatically at the E/O boundary. This suggests that long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 due to organic carbon deposition to the seafloor decreased, potentially offsetting decreasing pCO2 levels and associated cooling. The relatively larger increase in CaCO3 accumulation compared to export production at the E/O suggests that the permanent deepening of the calcite compensation depth (CCD) at that time stems primarily from changes in deep water chemistry and not from increased carbonate production. Griffith E. Calhoun M. Thomas E. Averyt K. Erhardt A. Bralower T. Lyle M. Olivarez-Lyle A. Paytan A. 19599 Article We model the effects of an internal wave on the structure of the oceanic subsurface bubble layer, generated by breaking surface waves. We consider two situations: when breaking is caused either by a strong sustained wind or by the direct interaction of surface waves with an internal wave. We find that the effects are twofold; bubbles are driven by the internal wave field and the injection of bubbles into the water is enhanced in downwelling areas behind the crests of the internal wave. We use an uncoupled problem formulation, substituting the solution for an internal wave in a two-layer fluid model into the equations describing the bubble dynamics. The latter equations are solved numerically, showing structure formation in the bubble layer for each of the two cases, when one of the aforementioned mechanisms dominates the other. 2010-10 Phys. Fluids 22 106603 0 10.1063/1.3499379 We model the effects of an internal wave on the structure of the oceanic subsurface bubble layer, generated by breaking surface waves. We consider two situations: when breaking is caused either by a strong sustained wind or by the direct interaction of surface waves with an internal wave. We find that the effects are twofold; bubbles are driven by the internal wave field and the injection of bubbles into the water is enhanced in downwelling areas behind the crests of the internal wave. We use an uncoupled problem formulation, substituting the solution for an internal wave in a two-layer fluid model into the equations describing the bubble dynamics. The latter equations are solved numerically, showing structure formation in the bubble layer for each of the two cases, when one of the aforementioned mechanisms dominates the other. Grimshaw R. H. J. Khusnutdinova K. R. Ostrovsky L. A. Topolnikov A. S. 19600 Article Narrow bands of strong atmospheric water vapor transport, referred to as “atmospheric rivers” (ARs), are responsible for the majority of wintertime extreme precipitation events with important contributions to the seasonal water balance. We investigate relationships between snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, and surface air temperature (SAT) across the Sierra Nevada for 45 wintertime AR events. Analysis of assimilated and in situ data for water years 2004–2010 indicates that ARs on average generate ∼4 times daily SWE accumulation of non-AR storms. In addition, AR events contributed ∼30–40% of total seasonal SWE accumulation in most years, with the contribution dominated by just 1–2 extreme events in some cases. In situ and remotely sensed observations show that SWE changes associated with ARs are closely related to SAT. These results reveal the previously unexplored significance of ARs with regard to the snowpack and associated sensitivities of AR precipitation to SAT. 2010-10 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L20401 0 10.1029/2010GL044696 Narrow bands of strong atmospheric water vapor transport, referred to as “atmospheric rivers” (ARs), are responsible for the majority of wintertime extreme precipitation events with important contributions to the seasonal water balance. We investigate relationships between snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, and surface air temperature (SAT) across the Sierra Nevada for 45 wintertime AR events. Analysis of assimilated and in situ data for water years 2004–2010 indicates that ARs on average generate ∼4 times daily SWE accumulation of non-AR storms. In addition, AR events contributed ∼30–40% of total seasonal SWE accumulation in most years, with the contribution dominated by just 1–2 extreme events in some cases. In situ and remotely sensed observations show that SWE changes associated with ARs are closely related to SAT. These results reveal the previously unexplored significance of ARs with regard to the snowpack and associated sensitivities of AR precipitation to SAT. Guan B. Molotch N. P. Waliser D. E. Fetzer E. J. Neiman P. J. 19601 Article Inhomogeneity in gridded meteorological data may arise from the inclusion of inhomogeneous station data or from aspects of the gridding procedure itself. However, the homogeneity of gridded datasets is rarely questioned, even though an analysis of trends or variability that uses inhomogeneous data could be misleading or even erroneous. Three gridded precipitation datasets that have been used in studies of the Upper Colorado River basin were tested for homogeneity in this study: that of Maurer et al., that of Beyene and Lettenmaier, and the Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset of Daly et al. Four absolute homogeneity tests were applied to annual precipitation amounts on a grid cell and on a hydrologic subregion spatial scale for the periods 1950–99 and 1916–2006. The analysis detects breakpoints in 1977 and 1978 at many locations in all three datasets that may be due to an anomalously rapid shift in the Pacific decadal oscillation. One dataset showed breakpoints in the 1940s that might be due to the widespread change in the number of available observing stations used as input for that dataset. The results also indicated that the time series from the three datasets are sufficiently homogeneous for variability analysis during the 1950–99 period when aggregated on a subregional scale. 2010-12 J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 49 2404-2415 0 10.1175/2010JAMC2484.1 Inhomogeneity in gridded meteorological data may arise from the inclusion of inhomogeneous station data or from aspects of the gridding procedure itself. However, the homogeneity of gridded datasets is rarely questioned, even though an analysis of trends or variability that uses inhomogeneous data could be misleading or even erroneous. Three gridded precipitation datasets that have been used in studies of the Upper Colorado River basin were tested for homogeneity in this study: that of Maurer et al., that of Beyene and Lettenmaier, and the Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset of Daly et al. Four absolute homogeneity tests were applied to annual precipitation amounts on a grid cell and on a hydrologic subregion spatial scale for the periods 1950–99 and 1916–2006. The analysis detects breakpoints in 1977 and 1978 at many locations in all three datasets that may be due to an anomalously rapid shift in the Pacific decadal oscillation. One dataset showed breakpoints in the 1940s that might be due to the widespread change in the number of available observing stations used as input for that dataset. The results also indicated that the time series from the three datasets are sufficiently homogeneous for variability analysis during the 1950–99 period when aggregated on a subregional scale. Guentchev G. Barsugli J. J. Eischeid J. K. 19602 Article This paper uses observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and microwave imager (TMI) to evaluate the cloud microphysical schemes in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5; version 3.7.4) for a wintertime frontal precipitation system over the eastern Pacific Ocean. By incorporating a forward radiative transfer model, the radar reflectivity and brightness temperatures are simulated and compared with the observations at PR and TMI frequencies. The main purpose of this study is to identify key differences among the five schemes [including Simple ice, Reisner1, Reisner2, Schultz, and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) microphysics scheme] in the MM5 that may lead to significant departures of simulated precipitation properties from both active (PR) and passive (TMI) microwave observations. Radiative properties, including radar reflectivity, attenuation, and scattering in precipitation liquid and ice layers are investigated. In the rain layer, most schemes are capable of reproducing the observed radiative properties to a reasonable degree; the Reisner2 simulation, however, produces weaker reflectivity and stronger attenuation than the observations, which is possibly attributable to the larger intercept parameter (N0r) applied in this run. In the precipitation ice layer, strong evidence regarding the differences in the microphysical and radiative properties between a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) and a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) within this frontal precipitation system is found. The performances of these schemes vary significantly on simulating the microphysical and radiative properties of the frontal rainband. The GSFC scheme shows the least bias, while the Reisner1 scheme has the largest bias in the reflectivity comparison. It appears more challenging for the model to replicate the scattering signatures obtained by the passive sensor (TMI). Despite the common problem of excessive scattering in the WCFR (stratiform precipitation) region in every simulation, the magnitude of the scattering maximum seems better represented in the Reisner2 scheme. The different types of precipitation ice, snow, and graupel are found to behave differently in the relationship of scattering versus reflectivity. The determinative role of the precipitation ice particle size distribution (intercept parameters) is extensively discussed through sensitivity tests and a single-layer radiative transfer model. 2010-6 J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 49 1129-1148 0 10.1175/2010jamc2327.1 This paper uses observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and microwave imager (TMI) to evaluate the cloud microphysical schemes in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5; version 3.7.4) for a wintertime frontal precipitation system over the eastern Pacific Ocean. By incorporating a forward radiative transfer model, the radar reflectivity and brightness temperatures are simulated and compared with the observations at PR and TMI frequencies. The main purpose of this study is to identify key differences among the five schemes [including Simple ice, Reisner1, Reisner2, Schultz, and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) microphysics scheme] in the MM5 that may lead to significant departures of simulated precipitation properties from both active (PR) and passive (TMI) microwave observations. Radiative properties, including radar reflectivity, attenuation, and scattering in precipitation liquid and ice layers are investigated. In the rain layer, most schemes are capable of reproducing the observed radiative properties to a reasonable degree; the Reisner2 simulation, however, produces weaker reflectivity and stronger attenuation than the observations, which is possibly attributable to the larger intercept parameter (N0r) applied in this run. In the precipitation ice layer, strong evidence regarding the differences in the microphysical and radiative properties between a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) and a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) within this frontal precipitation system is found. The performances of these schemes vary significantly on simulating the microphysical and radiative properties of the frontal rainband. The GSFC scheme shows the least bias, while the Reisner1 scheme has the largest bias in the reflectivity comparison. It appears more challenging for the model to replicate the scattering signatures obtained by the passive sensor (TMI). Despite the common problem of excessive scattering in the WCFR (stratiform precipitation) region in every simulation, the magnitude of the scattering maximum seems better represented in the Reisner2 scheme. The different types of precipitation ice, snow, and graupel are found to behave differently in the relationship of scattering versus reflectivity. The determinative role of the precipitation ice particle size distribution (intercept parameters) is extensively discussed through sensitivity tests and a single-layer radiative transfer model. Han M. Braun S. A. Olson W. S. Persson P. O. G. Bao J.-W. 19603 Article Global sea level has risen during the past decades as a result of thermal expansion of the warming ocean and freshwater addition from melting continental ice1. However, sea-level rise is not globally uniform1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regional sea levels can be affected by changes in atmospheric or oceanic circulation. As long-term observational records are scarce, regional changes in sea level in the Indian Ocean are poorly constrained. Yet estimates of future sea-level changes are essential for effective risk assessment2. Here we combine in situ and satellite observations of Indian Ocean sea level with climate-model simulations, to identify a distinct spatial pattern of sea-level rise since the 1960s. We find that sea level has decreased substantially in the south tropical Indian Ocean whereas it has increased elsewhere. This pattern is driven by changing surface winds associated with a combined invigoration of the Indian Ocean Hadley and Walker cells, patterns of atmospheric overturning circulation in the north–south and east–west direction, respectively, which is partly attributable to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. We conclude that—if ongoing anthropogenic warming dominates natural variability—the pattern we detected is likely to persist and to increase the environmental stress on some coasts and islands in the Indian Ocean. 2010-8 Nat. Geosci. 3 546-550 0 10.1038/ngeo901 Global sea level has risen during the past decades as a result of thermal expansion of the warming ocean and freshwater addition from melting continental ice1. However, sea-level rise is not globally uniform1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regional sea levels can be affected by changes in atmospheric or oceanic circulation. As long-term observational records are scarce, regional changes in sea level in the Indian Ocean are poorly constrained. Yet estimates of future sea-level changes are essential for effective risk assessment2. Here we combine in situ and satellite observations of Indian Ocean sea level with climate-model simulations, to identify a distinct spatial pattern of sea-level rise since the 1960s. We find that sea level has decreased substantially in the south tropical Indian Ocean whereas it has increased elsewhere. This pattern is driven by changing surface winds associated with a combined invigoration of the Indian Ocean Hadley and Walker cells, patterns of atmospheric overturning circulation in the north–south and east–west direction, respectively, which is partly attributable to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. We conclude that—if ongoing anthropogenic warming dominates natural variability—the pattern we detected is likely to persist and to increase the environmental stress on some coasts and islands in the Indian Ocean. Han W. Q. Meehl G. A. Rajagopalan B. Fasullo J. T. Hu A. X. Lin J. L. Large W. G. Wang J. W. Quan X.-W. Trenary L. L. Wallcraft A. Shinoda T. Yeager S. 19604 Article Marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing exploitation. However, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance as most do not include the effect of climate change. Ocean temperatures are expected to increase through the 21st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts on marine fisheries. To begin to quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast of the United States, we develop a coupled climate–population model for Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus). The model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine habitats. Temperature forecasts were obtained from 14 general circulation models simulating three CO2 emission scenarios. An ensemble-based approach was used in which a multimodel average was calculated for a given CO2 emission scenario to forecast the response of the population. The coupled model indicates that both exploitation and climate change significantly affect abundance and distribution of Atlantic croaker. At current levels of fishing, the average (2010–2100) spawning biomass of the population is forecast to increase by 60–100%. Similarly, the center of the population is forecast to shift 50–100 km northward. A yield analysis, which is used to calculate benchmarks for fishery management, indicates that the maximum sustainable yield will increase by 30–100%. Our results demonstrate that climate effects on fisheries must be identified, understood, and incorporated into the scientific advice provided to managers if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved in a changing climate. 2010-3 Ecol. Appl. 20 452-464 0 10.1890/08-1863.1 Marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing exploitation. However, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance as most do not include the effect of climate change. Ocean temperatures are expected to increase through the 21st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts on marine fisheries. To begin to quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast of the United States, we develop a coupled climate–population model for Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus). The model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine habitats. Temperature forecasts were obtained from 14 general circulation models simulating three CO2 emission scenarios. An ensemble-based approach was used in which a multimodel average was calculated for a given CO2 emission scenario to forecast the response of the population. The coupled model indicates that both exploitation and climate change significantly affect abundance and distribution of Atlantic croaker. At current levels of fishing, the average (2010–2100) spawning biomass of the population is forecast to increase by 60–100%. Similarly, the center of the population is forecast to shift 50–100 km northward. A yield analysis, which is used to calculate benchmarks for fishery management, indicates that the maximum sustainable yield will increase by 30–100%. Our results demonstrate that climate effects on fisheries must be identified, understood, and incorporated into the scientific advice provided to managers if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved in a changing climate. Hare J. Alexander M. A. Fogarty M. Williams E. Scott J. D. 19605 Article N/A 2010-7 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 942-956 0 10.1175/2010bams2537.1 N/A Hartten L. M. LeMone M. A. 19606 Article In this study, the nature and causes for observed regional precipitation trends during 1977–2006 are diagnosed. It is found that major features of regional trends in annual precipitation during 1977–2006 are consistent with an atmospheric response to observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This includes drying over the eastern Pacific Ocean that extends into western portions of the Americas related to a cooling of eastern Pacific SSTs, and broad increases in rainfall over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere, including a Sahelian rainfall recovery and increased wetness over the Indo–West Pacific related to North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific ocean warming. It is further determined that these relationships between SST and rainfall change are generally not symptomatic of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The intensity of regional trends simulated in climate models using observed time variability in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosol, and solar and volcanic aerosol forcing are appreciably weaker than those observed and also weaker than those simulated in atmospheric models using only observed SST forcing. The pattern of rainfall trends occurring in response to such external radiative forcing also departs significantly from observations, especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Pacific and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas. Additional experiments illustrate that the discrepancy between observed and GHG-forced rainfall changes during 1977–2006 results mostly from the differences between observed and externally forced SST trends. Only weak rainfall sensitivity is found to occur in response to the uniform distribution of SST warming that is induced by GHG and aerosol forcing, whereas the particular pattern of the observed SST change that includes an increased SST contrast between the east Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and strong regional warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, was a key driver of regional rainfall trends. The results of this attribution study on the causes for 1977–2006 regional rainfall changes are used to discuss prediction challenges including the likelihood that recent rainfall trends might persist. 2010-4 J. Climate 23 2131-2145 0 10.1175/2009jcli3420.1 In this study, the nature and causes for observed regional precipitation trends during 1977–2006 are diagnosed. It is found that major features of regional trends in annual precipitation during 1977–2006 are consistent with an atmospheric response to observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This includes drying over the eastern Pacific Ocean that extends into western portions of the Americas related to a cooling of eastern Pacific SSTs, and broad increases in rainfall over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere, including a Sahelian rainfall recovery and increased wetness over the Indo–West Pacific related to North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific ocean warming. It is further determined that these relationships between SST and rainfall change are generally not symptomatic of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The intensity of regional trends simulated in climate models using observed time variability in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosol, and solar and volcanic aerosol forcing are appreciably weaker than those observed and also weaker than those simulated in atmospheric models using only observed SST forcing. The pattern of rainfall trends occurring in response to such external radiative forcing also departs significantly from observations, especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Pacific and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas. Additional experiments illustrate that the discrepancy between observed and GHG-forced rainfall changes during 1977–2006 results mostly from the differences between observed and externally forced SST trends. Only weak rainfall sensitivity is found to occur in response to the uniform distribution of SST warming that is induced by GHG and aerosol forcing, whereas the particular pattern of the observed SST change that includes an increased SST contrast between the east Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and strong regional warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, was a key driver of regional rainfall trends. The results of this attribution study on the causes for 1977–2006 regional rainfall changes are used to discuss prediction challenges including the likelihood that recent rainfall trends might persist. Hoerling M. P. Eischeid J. K. Perlwitz J. 19607 Article The atmospheric conditions that lead to strong offshore surface winds in Southern California, commonly referred to as Santa Ana winds, are investigated using the North American Regional Reanalysis and a 12-year, 6-km resolution regional climate simulation of Southern California. We first construct an index to characterize Santa Ana events based on offshore wind strength. This index is then used to identify the average synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana events—a high pressure anomaly over the Great Basin. This pressure anomaly causes offshore geostrophic winds roughly perpendicular to the region’s mountain ranges, which in turn cause surface flow as the offshore momentum is transferred to the surface. We find, however, that there are large variations in the synoptic conditions during Santa Ana conditions, and that there are many days with strong offshore flow and weak synoptic forcing. This is due to local thermodynamic forcing that also causes strong offshore surface flow: a large temperature gradient between the cold desert surface and the warm ocean air at the same altitude creates an offshore pressure gradient at that altitude, in turn causing katabatic-like offshore flow in a thin layer near the surface. We quantify the contribution of “synoptic” and “local thermodynamic” mechanisms using a bivariate linear regression model, and find that, unless synoptic conditions force strongly onshore winds, the local thermodynamic forcing is the primary control on Santa Ana variability. 2010-5 Clim. Dyn. 34 847-857 0 10.1007/s00382-009-0650-4 The atmospheric conditions that lead to strong offshore surface winds in Southern California, commonly referred to as Santa Ana winds, are investigated using the North American Regional Reanalysis and a 12-year, 6-km resolution regional climate simulation of Southern California. We first construct an index to characterize Santa Ana events based on offshore wind strength. This index is then used to identify the average synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana events—a high pressure anomaly over the Great Basin. This pressure anomaly causes offshore geostrophic winds roughly perpendicular to the region’s mountain ranges, which in turn cause surface flow as the offshore momentum is transferred to the surface. We find, however, that there are large variations in the synoptic conditions during Santa Ana conditions, and that there are many days with strong offshore flow and weak synoptic forcing. This is due to local thermodynamic forcing that also causes strong offshore surface flow: a large temperature gradient between the cold desert surface and the warm ocean air at the same altitude creates an offshore pressure gradient at that altitude, in turn causing katabatic-like offshore flow in a thin layer near the surface. We quantify the contribution of “synoptic” and “local thermodynamic” mechanisms using a bivariate linear regression model, and find that, unless synoptic conditions force strongly onshore winds, the local thermodynamic forcing is the primary control on Santa Ana variability. Hughes M. Hall A. 19608 Article A 10-m air temperature (Ta) retrieval using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) and satellite-derived sea surface temperature (Ts) observations is presented. The multivariable linear regression retrieval uses AMSU-A brightness temperatures from the 52.8- and 53.6-GHz channels and satellite-derived daily sea surface temperatures to determine Ta. A regression error of 0.83°C using 841 matched satellite and ship observations demonstrates a high-quality fit of the satellite observations with in situ Ta. Validation of the retrieval using independent International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS) ship and buoy observations results in a bias of −0.21°C and root-mean-square (RMS) differences of 1.55°C. A comparison with previous satellite-based Ta retrievals indicates less bias and significantly smaller RMS differences for the new retrieval. Regional biases inherent to previous retrievals are reduced in several oceanic regions using the new Ta retrieval. Satellite-derived Ts–Ta data were found to agree well with ICOADS buoy data and were significantly improved from previous retrievals. 2010-10 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 27 1769-1776 0 10.1175/2010JTECHA1414.1 A 10-m air temperature (Ta) retrieval using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) and satellite-derived sea surface temperature (Ts) observations is presented. The multivariable linear regression retrieval uses AMSU-A brightness temperatures from the 52.8- and 53.6-GHz channels and satellite-derived daily sea surface temperatures to determine Ta. A regression error of 0.83°C using 841 matched satellite and ship observations demonstrates a high-quality fit of the satellite observations with in situ Ta. Validation of the retrieval using independent International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS) ship and buoy observations results in a bias of −0.21°C and root-mean-square (RMS) differences of 1.55°C. A comparison with previous satellite-based Ta retrievals indicates less bias and significantly smaller RMS differences for the new retrieval. Regional biases inherent to previous retrievals are reduced in several oceanic regions using the new Ta retrieval. Satellite-derived Ts–Ta data were found to agree well with ICOADS buoy data and were significantly improved from previous retrievals. Jackson D. L. Wick G. A. 19609 Article This study is the last in a series of papers addressing the dynamics of the West African summer monsoon at intraseasonal time scales between 10 and 90 days. The signals of convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves within the summer African monsoon have been investigated after filtering NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data within a box delineated by the dispersion curves of the theoretical ER waves. Two families of waves have been detected in the 10–100-day periodicity band by performing a singular spectrum analysis on a regional index of ER-filtered OLR. For each family the first EOF mode has been retained to focus on the main convective variability signal. Within the periodicity band of 30–100 days, an ER wave pattern with an approximate wavelength of 13 500 km has been depicted. This ER wave links the MJO mode in the Indian monsoon sector with the main mode of convective variability over West and central Africa. This confirms the investigations carried out in previous studies. Within the 10–30-day periodicity band, a separate ER wave pattern has been highlighted in the African monsoon system with an approximate wavelength of 7500 km, a phase speed of 6 m s−1, and a period of 15 days. The combined OLR and atmospheric circulation pattern looks like a combination of ER wave solutions with meridional wavenumbers of 1 and 2. Its vertical baroclinic profile suggests that this wave is forced by the deep convective heating. Its initiation in terms of OLR modulation is detected north of Lake Victoria, extending northward and then propagating westward along the Sahel latitudes. The Sahel mode identified in previous studies corresponds to the second main mode of convective variability within the 10–30-day periodicity band, and this has also been examined. Its pattern and evolution look like the first-mode ER wave pattern and they are temporally correlated with a coefficient of +0.6. About one-third of the Sahel mode events are concomitant with an ER wave occurrence. The main difference between these two signals consists of a stronger OLR and circulation modulation of the Sahel mode over East and central Africa. Thus, the Sahel mode occurrence and its westward propagation could be explained in part by atmospheric dynamics associated with the ER waves and in part by land surface interactions, as shown in other studies. 2010-7 J. Climate 23 4005-4024 0 10.1175/2010jcli3221.1 This study is the last in a series of papers addressing the dynamics of the West African summer monsoon at intraseasonal time scales between 10 and 90 days. The signals of convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves within the summer African monsoon have been investigated after filtering NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data within a box delineated by the dispersion curves of the theoretical ER waves. Two families of waves have been detected in the 10–100-day periodicity band by performing a singular spectrum analysis on a regional index of ER-filtered OLR. For each family the first EOF mode has been retained to focus on the main convective variability signal. Within the periodicity band of 30–100 days, an ER wave pattern with an approximate wavelength of 13 500 km has been depicted. This ER wave links the MJO mode in the Indian monsoon sector with the main mode of convective variability over West and central Africa. This confirms the investigations carried out in previous studies. Within the 10–30-day periodicity band, a separate ER wave pattern has been highlighted in the African monsoon system with an approximate wavelength of 7500 km, a phase speed of 6 m s−1, and a period of 15 days. The combined OLR and atmospheric circulation pattern looks like a combination of ER wave solutions with meridional wavenumbers of 1 and 2. Its vertical baroclinic profile suggests that this wave is forced by the deep convective heating. Its initiation in terms of OLR modulation is detected north of Lake Victoria, extending northward and then propagating westward along the Sahel latitudes. The Sahel mode identified in previous studies corresponds to the second main mode of convective variability within the 10–30-day periodicity band, and this has also been examined. Its pattern and evolution look like the first-mode ER wave pattern and they are temporally correlated with a coefficient of +0.6. About one-third of the Sahel mode events are concomitant with an ER wave occurrence. The main difference between these two signals consists of a stronger OLR and circulation modulation of the Sahel mode over East and central Africa. Thus, the Sahel mode occurrence and its westward propagation could be explained in part by atmospheric dynamics associated with the ER waves and in part by land surface interactions, as shown in other studies. Janicot S. Mounier F. Gervois S. Sultan B. Kiladis G. N. 19610 Article This study presents detailed evaluation of the seasonal and episodic performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system applied to simulate air quality at a fine grid spacing (4 km horizontal resolution) in central California, where ozone air pollution problems are severe. A rich aerometric database collected during the summer 2000 Central California Ozone Study (CCOS) is used to prepare model inputs and to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. We examine both temporal and spatial behaviors of ozone predictions. We highlight synoptically driven high-ozone events (exemplified by the four intensive operating periods (IOPs)) for evaluating both meteorological inputs and chemical outputs (ozone and its precursors) and compare them to the summer average. For most of the summer days, cross-domain normalized gross errors are less than 25% for modeled hourly ozone, and normalized biases are between ±15% for both hourly and peak (1 h and 8 h) ozone. The domain-wide aggregated metrics indicate similar performance between the IOPs and the whole summer with respect to predicted ozone and its precursors. Episode-to-episode differences in ozone predictions are more pronounced at a subregional level. The model performs consistently better in the San Joaquin Valley than other air basins, and episodic ozone predictions there are similar to the summer average. Poorer model performance (normalized peak ozone biases <−15% or >15%) is found in the Sacramento Valley and the Bay Area and is most noticeable in episodes that are subject to the largest uncertainties in meteorological fields (wind directions in the Sacramento Valley and timing and strength of onshore flow in the Bay Area) within the boundary layer. 2010-5 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 D09302 0 10.1029/2009JD012680 This study presents detailed evaluation of the seasonal and episodic performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system applied to simulate air quality at a fine grid spacing (4 km horizontal resolution) in central California, where ozone air pollution problems are severe. A rich aerometric database collected during the summer 2000 Central California Ozone Study (CCOS) is used to prepare model inputs and to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. We examine both temporal and spatial behaviors of ozone predictions. We highlight synoptically driven high-ozone events (exemplified by the four intensive operating periods (IOPs)) for evaluating both meteorological inputs and chemical outputs (ozone and its precursors) and compare them to the summer average. For most of the summer days, cross-domain normalized gross errors are less than 25% for modeled hourly ozone, and normalized biases are between ±15% for both hourly and peak (1 h and 8 h) ozone. The domain-wide aggregated metrics indicate similar performance between the IOPs and the whole summer with respect to predicted ozone and its precursors. Episode-to-episode differences in ozone predictions are more pronounced at a subregional level. The model performs consistently better in the San Joaquin Valley than other air basins, and episodic ozone predictions there are similar to the summer average. Poorer model performance (normalized peak ozone biases <−15% or >15%) is found in the Sacramento Valley and the Bay Area and is most noticeable in episodes that are subject to the largest uncertainties in meteorological fields (wind directions in the Sacramento Valley and timing and strength of onshore flow in the Bay Area) within the boundary layer. Jin L. Brown N. J. Hartley R. A. Bao J.-W. Michelson S. A. Wilczak J. M. 19611 Article On the Colorado River (as elsewhere), severe drought is useful for illuminating sources of water supply vulnerability, focusing attention on deficiencies in water allocation and management. A major drought study in the early 1990s, and experience with real drought a decade later, both have been useful in understanding vulnerability as a function of several factors working in consort with drought, including water allocation, reservoir operations, water demands, and climate change. Over this relatively short time-frame, vulnerability has shifted considerably, and will undoubtedly continue to change further in coming decades. Understanding how vulnerability is shifting is central to identifying future management pathways and reform options for the river. 2010-4 J. Contemp. Water Res. Educ. 144 5-10 0 On the Colorado River (as elsewhere), severe drought is useful for illuminating sources of water supply vulnerability, focusing attention on deficiencies in water allocation and management. A major drought study in the early 1990s, and experience with real drought a decade later, both have been useful in understanding vulnerability as a function of several factors working in consort with drought, including water allocation, reservoir operations, water demands, and climate change. Over this relatively short time-frame, vulnerability has shifted considerably, and will undoubtedly continue to change further in coming decades. Understanding how vulnerability is shifting is central to identifying future management pathways and reform options for the river. Kenney D. Ray A. J. Harding B. Pulwarty R. S. Udall B. 19612 Article Mean surface ocean conditions in the Caribbean were up to ∼2°C cooler than today at times during the Little Ice Age. The seasonal context for such mean state changes is important for determining the mechanisms involved. We reconstructed surface ocean conditions in southwest Puerto Rico at approximately monthly resolution over eight 4–12 year periods during the last ∼520 years to test if the seasonal cycles of temperature or salinity varied with mean state. We carried out paired analyses of Sr/Ca and δ18O for two coral cores. The δ18O data contained clear annual cycles and were significantly correlated to temperature during the 20th century calibration periods (1993–2004 and 1902–1912, r = 0.73). The Sr/Ca data contained high-frequency noise that obscured the seasonal cycles, although the centennial variability matched that of the coral δ18O, indicating a common forcing that is likely temperature. The seasonal coral δ18O amplitude averaged 0.60 ± 0.17‰, with none of the periods significantly different from the most recent. The simplest explanation is that the amplitudes of seasonal seawater δ18O and temperature variations were not different from today. Previous work in the southern Caribbean indicates that the Intertropical Convergence Zone was shifted southward or weaker during the Little Ice Age, and we speculate about how this could occur with no apparent affect on seasonality in the northern Caribbean. 2010-10 Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 11 Q10006 0 10.1029/2010GC003171 Mean surface ocean conditions in the Caribbean were up to ∼2°C cooler than today at times during the Little Ice Age. The seasonal context for such mean state changes is important for determining the mechanisms involved. We reconstructed surface ocean conditions in southwest Puerto Rico at approximately monthly resolution over eight 4–12 year periods during the last ∼520 years to test if the seasonal cycles of temperature or salinity varied with mean state. We carried out paired analyses of Sr/Ca and δ18O for two coral cores. The δ18O data contained clear annual cycles and were significantly correlated to temperature during the 20th century calibration periods (1993–2004 and 1902–1912, r = 0.73). The Sr/Ca data contained high-frequency noise that obscured the seasonal cycles, although the centennial variability matched that of the coral δ18O, indicating a common forcing that is likely temperature. The seasonal coral δ18O amplitude averaged 0.60 ± 0.17‰, with none of the periods significantly different from the most recent. The simplest explanation is that the amplitudes of seasonal seawater δ18O and temperature variations were not different from today. Previous work in the southern Caribbean indicates that the Intertropical Convergence Zone was shifted southward or weaker during the Little Ice Age, and we speculate about how this could occur with no apparent affect on seasonality in the northern Caribbean. Kilbourne K. H. Quinn T. M. Webb R. S. Guilderson T. P. Nyberg J. Winter A. 19613 Article Atmospheric climate models are subjected to the observed sea ice conditions during 2007 to estimate the regionality, seasonality, and vertical pattern of temperature responses to recent Arctic sea ice loss. It is shown that anomalous sea ice conditions accounted for virtually all of the estimated Arctic amplification in surface-based warming over the Arctic Ocean, and furthermore they accounted for a large fraction of Arctic amplification occurring over the high-latitude land between 60°N and the Arctic Ocean. Sea ice loss did not appreciably contribute to observed 2007 land temperature warmth equatorward of 60°N. Likewise, the observed warming of the free atmosphere attributable to sea ice loss is confined to Arctic latitudes, and is vertically confined to the lowest 1000 m. The results further highlight a strong seasonality of the temperature response to the 2007 sea ice loss. A weak signal of Arctic amplification in surface based warming is found during boreal summer, whereas a dramatically stronger signal is shown to develop during early autumn that persisted through December even as sea ice coverage approached its climatological values in response to the polar night. 2010-11 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L21701 0 10.1029/2010GL045022 Atmospheric climate models are subjected to the observed sea ice conditions during 2007 to estimate the regionality, seasonality, and vertical pattern of temperature responses to recent Arctic sea ice loss. It is shown that anomalous sea ice conditions accounted for virtually all of the estimated Arctic amplification in surface-based warming over the Arctic Ocean, and furthermore they accounted for a large fraction of Arctic amplification occurring over the high-latitude land between 60°N and the Arctic Ocean. Sea ice loss did not appreciably contribute to observed 2007 land temperature warmth equatorward of 60°N. Likewise, the observed warming of the free atmosphere attributable to sea ice loss is confined to Arctic latitudes, and is vertically confined to the lowest 1000 m. The results further highlight a strong seasonality of the temperature response to the 2007 sea ice loss. A weak signal of Arctic amplification in surface based warming is found during boreal summer, whereas a dramatically stronger signal is shown to develop during early autumn that persisted through December even as sea ice coverage approached its climatological values in response to the polar night. Kumar A. Perlwitz J. Eischeid J. K. Quan X.-W. Xu Taiyi T. Zhang T. Hoerling M. P. Jha B. Wang W. 19614 Article Ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Northern Hemisphere western boundary current (WBC) regions (i.e., the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, Oyashio, and their extensions) is reviewed with an emphasis on their role in basin-scale climate variability. SST anomalies exhibit considerable variance on interannual to decadal time scales in these regions. Low-frequency SST variability is primarily driven by basin-scale wind stress curl variability via the oceanic Rossby wave adjustment of the gyre-scale circulation that modulates the latitude and strength of the WBC-related oceanic fronts. Rectification of the variability by mesoscale eddies, reemergence of the anomalies from the preceding winter, and tropical remote forcing also play important roles in driving and maintaining the low-frequency variability in these regions. In the Gulf Stream region, interaction with the deep western boundary current also likely influences the low-frequency variability. Surface heat fluxes damp the low-frequency SST anomalies over the WBC regions; thus, heat fluxes originate with heat anomalies in the ocean and have the potential to drive the overlying atmospheric circulation. While recent observational studies demonstrate a local atmospheric boundary layer response to WBC changes, the latter’s influence on the large-scale atmospheric circulation is still unclear. Nevertheless, heat and moisture fluxes from the WBCs into the atmosphere influence the mean state of the atmospheric circulation, including anchoring the latitude of the storm tracks to the WBCs. Furthermore, many climate models suggest that the large-scale atmospheric response to SST anomalies driven by ocean dynamics in WBC regions can be important in generating decadal climate variability. As a step toward bridging climate model results and observations, the degree of realism of the WBC in current climate model simulations is assessed. Finally, outstanding issues concerning ocean–atmosphere interaction in WBC regions and its impact on climate variability are discussed. 2010-6 J. Climate 23 3249-3281 0 10.1175/2010JCLI3343.1 Ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Northern Hemisphere western boundary current (WBC) regions (i.e., the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, Oyashio, and their extensions) is reviewed with an emphasis on their role in basin-scale climate variability. SST anomalies exhibit considerable variance on interannual to decadal time scales in these regions. Low-frequency SST variability is primarily driven by basin-scale wind stress curl variability via the oceanic Rossby wave adjustment of the gyre-scale circulation that modulates the latitude and strength of the WBC-related oceanic fronts. Rectification of the variability by mesoscale eddies, reemergence of the anomalies from the preceding winter, and tropical remote forcing also play important roles in driving and maintaining the low-frequency variability in these regions. In the Gulf Stream region, interaction with the deep western boundary current also likely influences the low-frequency variability. Surface heat fluxes damp the low-frequency SST anomalies over the WBC regions; thus, heat fluxes originate with heat anomalies in the ocean and have the potential to drive the overlying atmospheric circulation. While recent observational studies demonstrate a local atmospheric boundary layer response to WBC changes, the latter’s influence on the large-scale atmospheric circulation is still unclear. Nevertheless, heat and moisture fluxes from the WBCs into the atmosphere influence the mean state of the atmospheric circulation, including anchoring the latitude of the storm tracks to the WBCs. Furthermore, many climate models suggest that the large-scale atmospheric response to SST anomalies driven by ocean dynamics in WBC regions can be important in generating decadal climate variability. As a step toward bridging climate model results and observations, the degree of realism of the WBC in current climate model simulations is assessed. Finally, outstanding issues concerning ocean–atmosphere interaction in WBC regions and its impact on climate variability are discussed. Kwon Y.-O. Alexander M. A. Bond N. A. Frankignoul C. Nakamura H. Qiu B. Thompson L. 19615 Article The spatial and temporal variability of convection during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) was examined via analysis of three-dimensional polarimetric radar data. Terrain bands were defined as the Gulf of California (over water) and elevations of 0–500 m above mean sea level (MSL; coastal plain), 500–1500 m MSL, and >1500 m MSL. Convective rainfall over the Gulf typically featured the smallest values of median volume diameter (D0) regardless of rain rate. Gulf convection also contained reduced precipitation-sized ice water mass but proportionally more liquid water mass compared to convection over land. These maritime characteristics were magnified during disturbed meteorological regimes, which typically featured increased precipitation over the Gulf and adjacent coastal plain. Overall, the results suggest increased reliance on warm-rain collision and coalescence at the expense of ice-based precipitation growth processes for convective rainfall over the Gulf, relative to the land. Over land D0, ice, and liquid water mass all increased with decreasing terrain elevation, suggesting intensification of convection as it moved off the Sierra Madre Occidental. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that both warm-rain and ice-based rainfall processes play important roles in precipitation formation over land. Coastal-plain convection underwent microphysical modifications during disturbed meteorological regimes that were similar to Gulf convection, but the changes were less dramatic. High-terrain convection experienced little microphysical variability regardless of meteorological regime. 2010-12 J. Hydrometeor. 11 1345-1357 0 10.1175/2010JHM1247.1 The spatial and temporal variability of convection during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) was examined via analysis of three-dimensional polarimetric radar data. Terrain bands were defined as the Gulf of California (over water) and elevations of 0–500 m above mean sea level (MSL; coastal plain), 500–1500 m MSL, and >1500 m MSL. Convective rainfall over the Gulf typically featured the smallest values of median volume diameter (D0) regardless of rain rate. Gulf convection also contained reduced precipitation-sized ice water mass but proportionally more liquid water mass compared to convection over land. These maritime characteristics were magnified during disturbed meteorological regimes, which typically featured increased precipitation over the Gulf and adjacent coastal plain. Overall, the results suggest increased reliance on warm-rain collision and coalescence at the expense of ice-based precipitation growth processes for convective rainfall over the Gulf, relative to the land. Over land D0, ice, and liquid water mass all increased with decreasing terrain elevation, suggesting intensification of convection as it moved off the Sierra Madre Occidental. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that both warm-rain and ice-based rainfall processes play important roles in precipitation formation over land. Coastal-plain convection underwent microphysical modifications during disturbed meteorological regimes that were similar to Gulf convection, but the changes were less dramatic. High-terrain convection experienced little microphysical variability regardless of meteorological regime. Lang T. J. Rutledge S. A. Cifelli R. 19616 Article Measurements of soil moisture at various spatial and temporal scales are needed to study the water and carbon cycles. While satellite missions have been planned to measure soil moisture at global scales, these missions also need ground-based soil moisture data to validate their observations and retrieval algorithms. Here, we demonstrate that signals routinely recorded by Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed to measure crustal deformation for geophysical studies could be used to provide a global network of soil moisture sensors. The sensitivity to soil moisture is seen in reflected GPS signals, which are quantified by using the GPS signal to noise ratio data. We show that these data are sensitive to soil moisture variations for areas of 1000 m2 horizontally and 1-6 cm vertically. It is demonstrated that GPS signals penetrate deeper when the soil is dry than when it is wet. This change in penetration or ¿reflector¿ depth, along with the change in dielectric constant, causes the GPS signal strength to change its frequency and amplitude. Comparisons with conventional water content reflectometer sensors show good agreement (r2=0.9 to 0.76) with the variation in frequencies of the reflected GPS signals over a period of 7 months, with most of the disagreement occurring when soil moisture content is less than 0.1 cm3/cm3. 2010-3 IEEE J. Select. Topics Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 3 91-99 0 10.1109/JSTARS.2009.2033612 Measurements of soil moisture at various spatial and temporal scales are needed to study the water and carbon cycles. While satellite missions have been planned to measure soil moisture at global scales, these missions also need ground-based soil moisture data to validate their observations and retrieval algorithms. Here, we demonstrate that signals routinely recorded by Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed to measure crustal deformation for geophysical studies could be used to provide a global network of soil moisture sensors. The sensitivity to soil moisture is seen in reflected GPS signals, which are quantified by using the GPS signal to noise ratio data. We show that these data are sensitive to soil moisture variations for areas of 1000 m2 horizontally and 1-6 cm vertically. It is demonstrated that GPS signals penetrate deeper when the soil is dry than when it is wet. This change in penetration or ¿reflector¿ depth, along with the change in dielectric constant, causes the GPS signal strength to change its frequency and amplitude. Comparisons with conventional water content reflectometer sensors show good agreement (r2=0.9 to 0.76) with the variation in frequencies of the reflected GPS signals over a period of 7 months, with most of the disagreement occurring when soil moisture content is less than 0.1 cm3/cm3. Larson K. Braun J. Small E. Zavorotny V. U. Gutmann E. Bilich A. 19617 Article This study describes the vertical structure of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that characterized the 2004 North American monsoon utilizing observations from a 2875-MHz (S band) profiler and a dual-polarimetric scanning Doppler radar. Both instrument platforms operated nearly continuously during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). A technique was developed to identify dominant hydrometeor type using S-band (profiler) reflectivity along with temperature. The simplified hydrometeor identification (HID) algorithm matched polarimetric scanning radar fuzzy logic–based HID results quite well. However, the simplified algorithm lacked the ability to identify ice hydrometeors below the melting layer and on occasion, underestimated the vertical extent of graupel because of a profiler reflectivity bias. Three of the strongest NAME convective rainfall events recorded by the profiler are assessed in this study. Stratiform rain exhibited a reflectivity bright band and strong Doppler velocity gradient within the melting layer. Convective rainfall exhibited high reflectivity and Doppler velocities exceeding 3 (−10) m s−1 in updrafts (downdrafts). Low-density graupel persisted above the melting layer, often extending to 10 km, with high-density graupel observed near 0°C. Doppler velocity signatures suggested that updrafts and downdrafts were often tilted, though estimating the degree of tilt would have required a more three-dimensional view of the passing storms. Cumulative frequency distributions (CFDs) of reflectivity were created for stratiform and convective rainfall and were found to be similar to results from other tropical locations. 2010-5 Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 1695-1714 0 10.1175/2009MWR3053.1 This study describes the vertical structure of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that characterized the 2004 North American monsoon utilizing observations from a 2875-MHz (S band) profiler and a dual-polarimetric scanning Doppler radar. Both instrument platforms operated nearly continuously during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). A technique was developed to identify dominant hydrometeor type using S-band (profiler) reflectivity along with temperature. The simplified hydrometeor identification (HID) algorithm matched polarimetric scanning radar fuzzy logic–based HID results quite well. However, the simplified algorithm lacked the ability to identify ice hydrometeors below the melting layer and on occasion, underestimated the vertical extent of graupel because of a profiler reflectivity bias. Three of the strongest NAME convective rainfall events recorded by the profiler are assessed in this study. Stratiform rain exhibited a reflectivity bright band and strong Doppler velocity gradient within the melting layer. Convective rainfall exhibited high reflectivity and Doppler velocities exceeding 3 (−10) m s−1 in updrafts (downdrafts). Low-density graupel persisted above the melting layer, often extending to 10 km, with high-density graupel observed near 0°C. Doppler velocity signatures suggested that updrafts and downdrafts were often tilted, though estimating the degree of tilt would have required a more three-dimensional view of the passing storms. Cumulative frequency distributions (CFDs) of reflectivity were created for stratiform and convective rainfall and were found to be similar to results from other tropical locations. Lerach D. G. Rutledge S. A. Williams C. R. Cifelli R. 19618 Article A statistical study is made of the relationship between intraseasonal variations in mid-tropospheric flow over West Africa and transient-eddy activity during the June-September monsoon season, in order to investigate the interaction between the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and convection. NCEP2 reanalyses are used together with Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data from June-September 1979-2007. Intraseasonal variability in the 600 hPa zonal wind is isolated using a 10-120 day filter. The leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) describes north-south displacements of the jet axis. Episodes of AEW activity over the continent are evaluated in terms of the perturbation kinetic energy (PKE) of the less-than-six-day high-pass filtered wind at 700 and 850 hPa. PKE and OLR are also filtered for the intraseasonal signal. Lag covariance analyses reveal a two-way interaction between the AEJ and synoptic-scale transients. Prior to episodes of enhanced transient activity, the AEJ is strengthened in the jet entrance region. During and following these episodes, the AEJ is strengthened on the northern flank of the jet exit region. E-vector analysis shows that this displacement of the AEJ is consistent with forcing by transients that have an AEW-like structure. Analysis of OLR shows that periods of enhanced transient activity over West Africa are associated with enhanced convection over the region at intraseasonal time-scales, and are correlated with prior episodes of enhanced convection to the east, in the ‘convective trigger’ region identified by Thorncroft et al. 2010-1 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136 397-410 0 10.1002/qj.474 A statistical study is made of the relationship between intraseasonal variations in mid-tropospheric flow over West Africa and transient-eddy activity during the June-September monsoon season, in order to investigate the interaction between the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and convection. NCEP2 reanalyses are used together with Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data from June-September 1979-2007. Intraseasonal variability in the 600 hPa zonal wind is isolated using a 10-120 day filter. The leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) describes north-south displacements of the jet axis. Episodes of AEW activity over the continent are evaluated in terms of the perturbation kinetic energy (PKE) of the less-than-six-day high-pass filtered wind at 700 and 850 hPa. PKE and OLR are also filtered for the intraseasonal signal. Lag covariance analyses reveal a two-way interaction between the AEJ and synoptic-scale transients. Prior to episodes of enhanced transient activity, the AEJ is strengthened in the jet entrance region. During and following these episodes, the AEJ is strengthened on the northern flank of the jet exit region. E-vector analysis shows that this displacement of the AEJ is consistent with forcing by transients that have an AEW-like structure. Analysis of OLR shows that periods of enhanced transient activity over West Africa are associated with enhanced convection over the region at intraseasonal time-scales, and are correlated with prior episodes of enhanced convection to the east, in the ‘convective trigger’ region identified by Thorncroft et al. Leroux S. Hall N. M. Kiladis G. N. 19619 Article Atmospheric circulation changes during boreal winter of the second half of the twentieth century exhibit a trend toward the positive polarity of both the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM). This has occurred in concert with other trends in the climate system, most notably a warming of the Indian Ocean. This study explores whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming played a role in forcing these annular trends. Five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with an idealized, transient warming of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA); the results of this indicate that the warming contributed to the annular trend in the NH but offset the annular trend in SH. The latter result implies that the Indian Ocean warming may have partly cancelled the influence of the stratospheric ozone depletion over the southern polar area, which itself forced a trend toward the positive phase of the SAM. Diagnosis of the physical mechanisms for the annular responses indicates that the direct impact of the diabatic heating induced by the Indian Ocean warming does not account for the annular response in the extratropics. Instead, interactions between the forced stationary wave anomalies and transient eddies is key for the formation of annular structures. 2010-7 J. Climate 23 3720-3738 0 10.1175/2010jcli3410.1 Atmospheric circulation changes during boreal winter of the second half of the twentieth century exhibit a trend toward the positive polarity of both the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM). This has occurred in concert with other trends in the climate system, most notably a warming of the Indian Ocean. This study explores whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming played a role in forcing these annular trends. Five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with an idealized, transient warming of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA); the results of this indicate that the warming contributed to the annular trend in the NH but offset the annular trend in SH. The latter result implies that the Indian Ocean warming may have partly cancelled the influence of the stratospheric ozone depletion over the southern polar area, which itself forced a trend toward the positive phase of the SAM. Diagnosis of the physical mechanisms for the annular responses indicates that the direct impact of the diabatic heating induced by the Indian Ocean warming does not account for the annular response in the extratropics. Instead, interactions between the forced stationary wave anomalies and transient eddies is key for the formation of annular structures. Li S. L. Perlwitz J. Hoerling M. P. Chen X. T. 19620 Article Annual global surface temperature and global land surface temperature trends are calculated for all possible periods of the historical record between 1850 and 2009. Two-dimensional parameter diagrams show the critical influence of the choice of start and end years on the calculated trend and associated temperature changes and suggest time scales required to establish robust trends. The largest trends and associated temperature changes are all positive and have occurred over periods ending in recent years. Substantial positive changes also occurred from the early twentieth century until the mid-1940s. The continents exhibit greater long-term warming than the global average overall, but less warming in the early part of the century (segments ending in the 1940s). The recent period of short-term cooling beginning in the late 1990s is neither statistically significant nor unusual in the context of trend variability in the full historical record. Global-mean and land surface temperature changes for periods ending in recent years and longer than about 90 years are extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. In contrast, short-term trends over less than a few decades are generally not statistically significant. This implies significant contributions of decadal variability to trends estimated over such short time periods. 2010-11 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 1485-1491 0 10.1175/2010BAMS3030.1 Annual global surface temperature and global land surface temperature trends are calculated for all possible periods of the historical record between 1850 and 2009. Two-dimensional parameter diagrams show the critical influence of the choice of start and end years on the calculated trend and associated temperature changes and suggest time scales required to establish robust trends. The largest trends and associated temperature changes are all positive and have occurred over periods ending in recent years. Substantial positive changes also occurred from the early twentieth century until the mid-1940s. The continents exhibit greater long-term warming than the global average overall, but less warming in the early part of the century (segments ending in the 1940s). The recent period of short-term cooling beginning in the late 1990s is neither statistically significant nor unusual in the context of trend variability in the full historical record. Global-mean and land surface temperature changes for periods ending in recent years and longer than about 90 years are extremely unlikely to have occurred by chance. In contrast, short-term trends over less than a few decades are generally not statistically significant. This implies significant contributions of decadal variability to trends estimated over such short time periods. Liebmann B. Dole R. M. Jones C. Bladé I. Allured D. 19621 Article This study evaluates the intraseasonal variation of winter precipitation over the western United States in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each model’s twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed. The focus is on the two dominant intraseasonal modes for the western U.S. precipitation: the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode. The results show that the models tend to overestimate the northern winter (November–April) seasonal mean precipitation over the western United States and Canada. The models also tend to produce overly strong intraseasonal variability in western U.S. wintertime precipitation, in spite of the overly weak tropical intraseasonal variability in most of the models. All models capture both the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode, usually with overly large variances. For the 40-day mode, models tend to reproduce its deep barotropic vertical structure and three-cell horizontal structure, but only 5 of the 14 models capture its northward propagation, and only 2 models simulate its teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation in the tropical Pacific. For the 22-day mode, 8 of the 14 models reproduce its coherent northward propagation, and 9 models capture its teleconnection with precipitation in the tropical Pacific. 2010-6 J. Climate 23 3094-3119 0 10.1175/2009JCLI2991.1 This study evaluates the intraseasonal variation of winter precipitation over the western United States in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each model’s twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed. The focus is on the two dominant intraseasonal modes for the western U.S. precipitation: the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode. The results show that the models tend to overestimate the northern winter (November–April) seasonal mean precipitation over the western United States and Canada. The models also tend to produce overly strong intraseasonal variability in western U.S. wintertime precipitation, in spite of the overly weak tropical intraseasonal variability in most of the models. All models capture both the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode, usually with overly large variances. For the 40-day mode, models tend to reproduce its deep barotropic vertical structure and three-cell horizontal structure, but only 5 of the 14 models capture its northward propagation, and only 2 models simulate its teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation in the tropical Pacific. For the 22-day mode, 8 of the 14 models reproduce its coherent northward propagation, and 9 models capture its teleconnection with precipitation in the tropical Pacific. Lin J. L. Shinoda T. Qian T. Han W. Roundy P. E. Zheng Y. 19622 Article Quantifying snowmelt-derived fluxes at the watershed scale within hillslope environments is critical for investigating local meadow scale groundwater dynamics in high elevation riparian ecosystems. In this article, we investigate the impact of snowmelt-derived groundwater flux from the surrounding hillslopes on water table dynamics in Tuolumne Meadows, which is located in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, USA. Results show water levels within the meadow are controlled by a combination of fluxes at the hillslope boundaries, snowmelt within the meadow and changes in the stream stage. Observed water level fluctuations at the boundaries of the meadow show the hydrologic connection and subsequent disconnection between the hillslope and meadow aquifers. Timing of groundwater flux entering the meadow as a result of spring snowmelt can vary over 20 days based on the location, aspect, and local geology of the contributing area within the larger watershed. Identifying this temporal and spatial variability in flux entering the meadow is critical for simulating changes in water levels within the meadow. Model results can vary significantly based on the temporal and spatial scales at which watershed processes are linked to local processes within the meadow causing errors when boundary fluxes are lumped in time or space. Without a clear understanding of the surrounding hillslope hydrology, it is difficult to simulate groundwater dynamics within high elevation riparian ecosystems with the accuracy necessary for understanding ecosystem response. 2010-9 Hydrol. Process. 24 2821-2833 0 10.1002/hyp.7714 Quantifying snowmelt-derived fluxes at the watershed scale within hillslope environments is critical for investigating local meadow scale groundwater dynamics in high elevation riparian ecosystems. In this article, we investigate the impact of snowmelt-derived groundwater flux from the surrounding hillslopes on water table dynamics in Tuolumne Meadows, which is located in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, USA. Results show water levels within the meadow are controlled by a combination of fluxes at the hillslope boundaries, snowmelt within the meadow and changes in the stream stage. Observed water level fluctuations at the boundaries of the meadow show the hydrologic connection and subsequent disconnection between the hillslope and meadow aquifers. Timing of groundwater flux entering the meadow as a result of spring snowmelt can vary over 20 days based on the location, aspect, and local geology of the contributing area within the larger watershed. Identifying this temporal and spatial variability in flux entering the meadow is critical for simulating changes in water levels within the meadow. Model results can vary significantly based on the temporal and spatial scales at which watershed processes are linked to local processes within the meadow causing errors when boundary fluxes are lumped in time or space. Without a clear understanding of the surrounding hillslope hydrology, it is difficult to simulate groundwater dynamics within high elevation riparian ecosystems with the accuracy necessary for understanding ecosystem response. Lowry C. S. Deems J. S. Loheide II S. P. Lundquist J. D. 19623 Article Cloud phase identification from active remote sensors in the temperature range from 0 to −40°C, where both liquid and ice hydrometeor phases are sustainable, is challenging. Millimeter wavelength cloud radars (MMCR) are able to penetrate and detect multiple cloud layers. However, in mixed-phase conditions, ice crystals dominate the radar signal, rendering the detection of liquid droplets from radar observables more difficult. The technique proposed here overcomes this fundamental limitation by using morphological features in MMCR Doppler spectra to detect supercooled liquid droplets in the radar sampling volume in the presence of ice particles. High lidar backscatter and near-zero lidar depolarization measurements (good indicators of the presence of liquid droplets) from the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment (MPACE) conducted in Barrow, Alaska, are used to train the technique and evaluate its potential for detecting mixed-phase conditions. Ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiosonde measurements provide additional independent validation. Because of the ability of MMCRs to penetrate multiple liquid layers, this radar-based technique does not suffer from the extinction limitations of lidars and is thus able to expand cloud phase identification methods to cloud regions beyond where lidars can penetrate, providing output at the native radar resolution. The technique is applicable to all profiling radars that have sufficient sensitivity to observe the small amount of liquid in mixed-phase clouds. 2010-10 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 D19201 0 10.1029/2009JD012884 Cloud phase identification from active remote sensors in the temperature range from 0 to −40°C, where both liquid and ice hydrometeor phases are sustainable, is challenging. Millimeter wavelength cloud radars (MMCR) are able to penetrate and detect multiple cloud layers. However, in mixed-phase conditions, ice crystals dominate the radar signal, rendering the detection of liquid droplets from radar observables more difficult. The technique proposed here overcomes this fundamental limitation by using morphological features in MMCR Doppler spectra to detect supercooled liquid droplets in the radar sampling volume in the presence of ice particles. High lidar backscatter and near-zero lidar depolarization measurements (good indicators of the presence of liquid droplets) from the Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds Experiment (MPACE) conducted in Barrow, Alaska, are used to train the technique and evaluate its potential for detecting mixed-phase conditions. Ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiosonde measurements provide additional independent validation. Because of the ability of MMCRs to penetrate multiple liquid layers, this radar-based technique does not suffer from the extinction limitations of lidars and is thus able to expand cloud phase identification methods to cloud regions beyond where lidars can penetrate, providing output at the native radar resolution. The technique is applicable to all profiling radars that have sufficient sensitivity to observe the small amount of liquid in mixed-phase clouds. Luke E. P. Kollias P. Shupe M. D. 19624 Article The rate of precipitation increase with elevation, termed the orographic precipitation gradient (OPG), is critically important for hydrologic forecasting in mountain basins that receive both rain and snow. Here, the following are examined to see how well they are able to predict the OPG and how it changes between storms and years: 1) a linear model of orographic precipitation forced by upstream radiosonde data, 2) monthly Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation data, and 3) seven years of hourly wind profiler data used to identify characteristics of the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). These are compared against 124 daily resolution (four of which also had quality controlled, hourly resolution) precipitation gauge records in the northern Sierra Nevada. All methods represent the OPG well in the mean and during a year when less than 30% of the precipitation occurred on days with SBJs. However, the linear model and PRISM do not adequately capture annual variations in the OPG during years when more than 70% of the precipitation occurred on days with SBJs. Throughout all of the years, wind profiler data indicating the height of the SBJ provided additional, and necessary, information. The OPG is negatively correlated with the height of the SBJ. The SBJ height is lower, and hence, the OPG greater when the westerly winds are stronger, with more vertical wind shear. These westerly storms result in greater increases of precipitation with elevation, which act to increase snow storage in most storms but also to increase storm runoff during warmer-than-average storms. 2010-10 J. Hydrometeor. 11 1141-1156 0 10.1175/2010JHM1264.1 The rate of precipitation increase with elevation, termed the orographic precipitation gradient (OPG), is critically important for hydrologic forecasting in mountain basins that receive both rain and snow. Here, the following are examined to see how well they are able to predict the OPG and how it changes between storms and years: 1) a linear model of orographic precipitation forced by upstream radiosonde data, 2) monthly Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation data, and 3) seven years of hourly wind profiler data used to identify characteristics of the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). These are compared against 124 daily resolution (four of which also had quality controlled, hourly resolution) precipitation gauge records in the northern Sierra Nevada. All methods represent the OPG well in the mean and during a year when less than 30% of the precipitation occurred on days with SBJs. However, the linear model and PRISM do not adequately capture annual variations in the OPG during years when more than 70% of the precipitation occurred on days with SBJs. Throughout all of the years, wind profiler data indicating the height of the SBJ provided additional, and necessary, information. The OPG is negatively correlated with the height of the SBJ. The SBJ height is lower, and hence, the OPG greater when the westerly winds are stronger, with more vertical wind shear. These westerly storms result in greater increases of precipitation with elevation, which act to increase snow storage in most storms but also to increase storm runoff during warmer-than-average storms. Lundquist J. D. Minder J. R. Neiman P. J. Sukovich E. M. 19625 Article The spaceborne W-band (94 GHz) radar on board the CloudSat polar-orbiting satellite offers new opportunities for retrieving parameters of precipitating cloud systems. CloudSat measurements can resolve the vertical cross sections of such systems. The radar brightband features, which are commonly present when observing stratiform precipitating systems, allow the vertical separation of the ice, mixed, and liquid precipitating hydrometeor layers. In this study, the CloudSat data are used to simultaneously retrieve ice water path (IWP) values for ice layers of precipitating systems using absolute radar reflectivity measurements and mean rainfall rates Rm in the liquid hydrometeor layers using the attenuation-based reflectivity gradient method. The retrievals were performed for precipitating events observed in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Climate Research Facility. The retrieval results indicated that IWP values in stratiform precipitating systems vary from a few hundreds up to about 10 thousands of grams per meter squared, and the mean rain rates were in a general range between 0.5 and about 12 mm h−1. On average, mean rainfall increases with an increase in ice mass observed above the melting layer; the corresponding mean correlation coefficient is about 0.35, although events with higher correlation as well as those with no appreciable correlation were observed. Horizontal advection, wind shear, and vertical air motions might be some of the reasons for decorrelation between IWP and Rm retrieved for the same vertical atmospheric column. A mean statistical relation between IWP and Rm derived from CloudSat retrievals is in good agreement with the data obtained from multiwavelength ground-based cloud radar measurements at the SGP site. 2010-8 J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 49 1756-1765 0 10.1175/2010jamc2444.1 The spaceborne W-band (94 GHz) radar on board the CloudSat polar-orbiting satellite offers new opportunities for retrieving parameters of precipitating cloud systems. CloudSat measurements can resolve the vertical cross sections of such systems. The radar brightband features, which are commonly present when observing stratiform precipitating systems, allow the vertical separation of the ice, mixed, and liquid precipitating hydrometeor layers. In this study, the CloudSat data are used to simultaneously retrieve ice water path (IWP) values for ice layers of precipitating systems using absolute radar reflectivity measurements and mean rainfall rates Rm in the liquid hydrometeor layers using the attenuation-based reflectivity gradient method. The retrievals were performed for precipitating events observed in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Climate Research Facility. The retrieval results indicated that IWP values in stratiform precipitating systems vary from a few hundreds up to about 10 thousands of grams per meter squared, and the mean rain rates were in a general range between 0.5 and about 12 mm h−1. On average, mean rainfall increases with an increase in ice mass observed above the melting layer; the corresponding mean correlation coefficient is about 0.35, although events with higher correlation as well as those with no appreciable correlation were observed. Horizontal advection, wind shear, and vertical air motions might be some of the reasons for decorrelation between IWP and Rm retrieved for the same vertical atmospheric column. A mean statistical relation between IWP and Rm derived from CloudSat retrievals is in good agreement with the data obtained from multiwavelength ground-based cloud radar measurements at the SGP site. Matrosov S. Y. 19626 Article Different relations between rainfall rate R and polarimetric X-band radar measurables were evaluated using the radar, disdrometer, and rain gauge measurements conducted during the 4-month-long field experiment. The specific differential phase shift KDP–based estimators generally show less scatter resulting from variability in raindrop size distributions than with the power-based relations. These estimators depend on model assumptions about the drop aspect ratios and are not applicable for lighter rainfalls. The polynomial approximation for the mean drop aspect ratio provides R–KDP relations that result overall in good agreement between the radar retrievals of rainfall accumulations and estimates from surface rain gauges. The accumulation data obtained from power estimators that use reflectivity Zeh and differential reflectivity ZDR measurements generally exhibit greater standard deviations with respect to the gauge measurements. Unlike the phase-based estimators, the power-based estimators have an advantage of being “point” measurements, thus providing continuous quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for the whole area of radar coverage. The uncertainty in the drop shape model can result in errors in the attenuation and differential attenuation correction procedures. These errors might provide biases of radar-derived QPE for the estimators that use power measurements. Overall, for all considered estimators, the radar-based total rainfall accumulations showed biases less than 10% (relative to gauges). The standard deviations of radar retrievals were about 23% for the mean Zeh–R relation, 17%–22% for the KDP-based estimators (depending on the drop shape model), and about 20%–32% for different Zeh–ZDR-based estimators. Comparing ZDR-based retrievals of mean mass raindrop size Dm (for Dm > 1 mm) with disdrometer-derived values reveals an about 20%–25% relative standard deviation between these two types of estimates. 2010-1 J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 27 122-134 0 10.1175/2009JTECHA1318.1 Different relations between rainfall rate R and polarimetric X-band radar measurables were evaluated using the radar, disdrometer, and rain gauge measurements conducted during the 4-month-long field experiment. The specific differential phase shift KDP–based estimators generally show less scatter resulting from variability in raindrop size distributions than with the power-based relations. These estimators depend on model assumptions about the drop aspect ratios and are not applicable for lighter rainfalls. The polynomial approximation for the mean drop aspect ratio provides R–KDP relations that result overall in good agreement between the radar retrievals of rainfall accumulations and estimates from surface rain gauges. The accumulation data obtained from power estimators that use reflectivity Zeh and differential reflectivity ZDR measurements generally exhibit greater standard deviations with respect to the gauge measurements. Unlike the phase-based estimators, the power-based estimators have an advantage of being “point” measurements, thus providing continuous quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for the whole area of radar coverage. The uncertainty in the drop shape model can result in errors in the attenuation and differential attenuation correction procedures. These errors might provide biases of radar-derived QPE for the estimators that use power measurements. Overall, for all considered estimators, the radar-based total rainfall accumulations showed biases less than 10% (relative to gauges). The standard deviations of radar retrievals were about 23% for the mean Zeh–R relation, 17%–22% for the KDP-based estimators (depending on the drop shape model), and about 20%–32% for different Zeh–ZDR-based estimators. Comparing ZDR-based retrievals of mean mass raindrop size Dm (for Dm > 1 mm) with disdrometer-derived values reveals an about 20%–25% relative standard deviation between these two types of estimates. Matrosov S. Y. 19627 Article A remote sensing approach for simultaneous retrievals of cloud and rainfall parameters in the vertical column above the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Climate Research Facility at the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) Darwin site in Australia is described. This approach uses vertically pointing measurements from a DOE Ka-band radar and scanning measurements from a nearby C-band radar pointing toward the TWP Darwin site. Rainfall retrieval constraints are provided by data from a surface impact disdrometer. The approach is applicable to stratiform precipitating cloud systems when a separation between the liquid hydrometeor layer, which contains rainfall and liquid water clouds, and the ice hydrometeor layer is provided by the radar bright band. Absolute C-band reflectivities and Ka-band vertical reflectivity gradients in the liquid layer are used for retrievals of the mean layer rain rate and cloud liquid water path (CLWP). C-band radar reflectivities are also used to estimate ice water path (IWP) in regions above the melting layer. The retrieval uncertainties of CLWP and IWP for typical stratiform precipitation systems are about 500–800 g m−2 (for CLWP) and a factor of 2 (for IWP). The CLWP retrieval uncertainties increase with rain rate, so retrievals for higher rain rates may be impractical. The expected uncertainties of layer mean rain rate retrievals are around 20%, which, in part, is due to constraints available from the disdrometer data. The applicability of the suggested approach is illustrated for two characteristic events observed at the TWP Darwin site during the wet season of 2007. A future deployment of W-band radars at the DOE tropical Climate Research Facilities can improve CLWP estimation accuracies and provide retrievals for a wider range of stratiform precipitating cloud events. 2010-4 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 3321-3331 0 10.5194/acp-10-3321-2010 A remote sensing approach for simultaneous retrievals of cloud and rainfall parameters in the vertical column above the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Climate Research Facility at the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) Darwin site in Australia is described. This approach uses vertically pointing measurements from a DOE Ka-band radar and scanning measurements from a nearby C-band radar pointing toward the TWP Darwin site. Rainfall retrieval constraints are provided by data from a surface impact disdrometer. The approach is applicable to stratiform precipitating cloud systems when a separation between the liquid hydrometeor layer, which contains rainfall and liquid water clouds, and the ice hydrometeor layer is provided by the radar bright band. Absolute C-band reflectivities and Ka-band vertical reflectivity gradients in the liquid layer are used for retrievals of the mean layer rain rate and cloud liquid water path (CLWP). C-band radar reflectivities are also used to estimate ice water path (IWP) in regions above the melting layer. The retrieval uncertainties of CLWP and IWP for typical stratiform precipitation systems are about 500–800 g m−2 (for CLWP) and a factor of 2 (for IWP). The CLWP retrieval uncertainties increase with rain rate, so retrievals for higher rain rates may be impractical. The expected uncertainties of layer mean rain rate retrievals are around 20%, which, in part, is due to constraints available from the disdrometer data. The applicability of the suggested approach is illustrated for two characteristic events observed at the TWP Darwin site during the wet season of 2007. A future deployment of W-band radars at the DOE tropical Climate Research Facilities can improve CLWP estimation accuracies and provide retrievals for a wider range of stratiform precipitating cloud events. Matrosov S. Y. 19628 Article A season-long set of 5-day simulations between 1200 UTC 1 June and 1200 UTC 30 September 2000 are evaluated using the observations taken during the Central California Ozone Study (CCOS) 2000 experiment. The simulations are carried out using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), which is widely used for air-quality simulations and control planning. The evaluation results strongly indicate that the model-simulated low-level winds in California’s Central Valley are biased in speed and direction: the simulated winds tend to have a stronger northwesterly component than observed. This bias is related to the difference in the observed and simulated large-scale, upper-level flows. The model simulations also show a bias in the height of the daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), particularly in the northern and southern Central Valley. There is evidence to suggest that this bias in the daytime ABL height is not only associated with the large-scale, upper-level bias but also linked to apparent differences in the surface forcing. 2010-11 J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 49 2230-2245 0 10.1175/2010JAMC2295.1 A season-long set of 5-day simulations between 1200 UTC 1 June and 1200 UTC 30 September 2000 are evaluated using the observations taken during the Central California Ozone Study (CCOS) 2000 experiment. The simulations are carried out using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), which is widely used for air-quality simulations and control planning. The evaluation results strongly indicate that the model-simulated low-level winds in California’s Central Valley are biased in speed and direction: the simulated winds tend to have a stronger northwesterly component than observed. This bias is related to the difference in the observed and simulated large-scale, upper-level flows. The model simulations also show a bias in the height of the daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), particularly in the northern and southern Central Valley. There is evidence to suggest that this bias in the daytime ABL height is not only associated with the large-scale, upper-level bias but also linked to apparent differences in the surface forcing. Michelson S. A. Djalalova I. Bao J.-W. 19629 Article Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes. 2010-2 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L04801 0 10.1029/2009GL041735 Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes. Moritz M. A. Moody T. J. Krawchuk M. A. Hughes M. Hall A. 19630 Article This wind profiler–based study highlights key characteristics of the barrier jet along the windward slope of California’s Sierra Nevada. Between 2000 and 2007 roughly 10% of 100 000 hourly wind profiles, recorded at two sites, satisfied the sierra barrier jet (SBJ) threshold criteria described in the text. The mean magnitude of the terrain-parallel flow in the SBJ core (i.e., Vmax) was similar at both sites (17.5 m s−1) and at a comparable altitude, 500–1000 m above the surface. The cross-mountain wind speed was weak at the altitude of Vmax, consistent with blocked conditions. The seasonal cycle of SBJ occurrences showed a maximum during the cooler months and a minimum in summer. Additionally, the SBJ was stronger in winter than in summer. Because the warm-season (May–September) SBJs were different than their cool-season (October–April) counterparts and occurred during California’s dry season, they were not discussed in detail. An inventory of 250 cool-season SBJ cases from the two sites was generated (a case contains ≥8 consecutive SBJ profiles). Up to 60% of the nearby cool-season precipitation fell during SBJ cases, and these cases shifted the precipitation down the sierra’s windward slope and enhanced precipitation at the north end of the Central Valley (relative to non-SBJ conditions). The large number of cool-season SBJ cases was stratified by the mean strength and altitude of Vmax and by the case duration. Composite profiles of the along-barrier component for the top- and bottom-20 ranked cases in each of these three SBJ classes reveal stark differences in the magnitude and vertical positioning of the barrier jet. The three SBJ classes yielded uniquely different local precipitation characteristics in proximity to the wind profilers, with the strongest and longest-lived SBJs yielding the greatest precipitation. North American Regional Reanalysis plan-view composites were generated to explore the synoptic conditions responsible for, and to showcase the precipitation distributions associated with, the top- and bottom-20 ranked cases in each of the three classes of SBJs. The composite analyses yielded large contrasts between the SBJ classes that could prove useful in forecasting SBJs and their precipitation impacts. All SBJ classes occurred, on average, in the pre-cold-frontal environment of landfalling winter storms. 2010-4 Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 1206-1233 0 10.1175/2009MWR3170.1 This wind profiler–based study highlights key characteristics of the barrier jet along the windward slope of California’s Sierra Nevada. Between 2000 and 2007 roughly 10% of 100 000 hourly wind profiles, recorded at two sites, satisfied the sierra barrier jet (SBJ) threshold criteria described in the text. The mean magnitude of the terrain-parallel flow in the SBJ core (i.e., Vmax) was similar at both sites (17.5 m s−1) and at a comparable altitude, 500–1000 m above the surface. The cross-mountain wind speed was weak at the altitude of Vmax, consistent with blocked conditions. The seasonal cycle of SBJ occurrences showed a maximum during the cooler months and a minimum in summer. Additionally, the SBJ was stronger in winter than in summer. Because the warm-season (May–September) SBJs were different than their cool-season (October–April) counterparts and occurred during California’s dry season, they were not discussed in detail. An inventory of 250 cool-season SBJ cases from the two sites was generated (a case contains ≥8 consecutive SBJ profiles). Up to 60% of the nearby cool-season precipitation fell during SBJ cases, and these cases shifted the precipitation down the sierra’s windward slope and enhanced precipitation at the north end of the Central Valley (relative to non-SBJ conditions). The large number of cool-season SBJ cases was stratified by the mean strength and altitude of Vmax and by the case duration. Composite profiles of the along-barrier component for the top- and bottom-20 ranked cases in each of these three SBJ classes reveal stark differences in the magnitude and vertical positioning of the barrier jet. The three SBJ classes yielded uniquely different local precipitation characteristics in proximity to the wind profilers, with the strongest and longest-lived SBJs yielding the greatest precipitation. North American Regional Reanalysis plan-view composites were generated to explore the synoptic conditions responsible for, and to showcase the precipitation distributions associated with, the top- and bottom-20 ranked cases in each of the three classes of SBJs. The composite analyses yielded large contrasts between the SBJ classes that could prove useful in forecasting SBJs and their precipitation impacts. All SBJ classes occurred, on average, in the pre-cold-frontal environment of landfalling winter storms. Neiman P. J. Sukovich E. M. Ralph F. M. Hughes M. 19631 Article In the past decade, it has become impossible to overlook the signs of climate change in western North America. They include soaring temperatures, declining late-season snowpack, northward-shifted winter storm tracks, increasing precipitation intensity, the worst drought since measurements began, steep declines in Colorado River reservoir storage, widespread vegetation mortality, and sharp increases in the frequency of large wildfires. These shifts have taken place across a region that also saw the nation's highest population growth during the same period. 2010-6 Science 138 1206-1233 0 10.1126/science.1186591 In the past decade, it has become impossible to overlook the signs of climate change in western North America. They include soaring temperatures, declining late-season snowpack, northward-shifted winter storm tracks, increasing precipitation intensity, the worst drought since measurements began, steep declines in Colorado River reservoir storage, widespread vegetation mortality, and sharp increases in the frequency of large wildfires. These shifts have taken place across a region that also saw the nation's highest population growth during the same period. Overpeck J. Udall B. 19632 Article A set of idealized global model experiments was performed by several modeling centers as part of the Drought Working Group of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability component of the World Climate Research Programme (CLIVAR). The purpose of the experiments was to assess the role of the leading modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the climate over the continents, with particular emphasis on the influence of SSTs on surface climate variability and droughts over the United States. An analysis based on several models gives more creditability to the results since it relies on the assessment of impacts that are robust across different models. Coordinated atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with three modes of SST variability were analyzed. The results show that the SST-forced precipitation variability over the central United States is dominated by the SST mode with maximum loading in the central Pacific Ocean. The SST mode with loading in the Atlantic Ocean, and a mode that is dominated by trends in SSTs, lead to a smaller response. Based on the response to the idealized SSTs, the precipitation response for the twentieth century was also reconstructed. A comparison with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations forced with the observed SSTs illustrates that the reconstructed precipitation variability was similar to the one in the AMIP simulations, further supporting the conclusion that the SST modes identified in the present analysis play a dominant role in the precipitation variability over the United States. One notable exception is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and further analysis regarding this major climate extreme is discussed. 2010-8 J. Climate 23 4327-4341 0 10.1175/2010JCLI3295.1 A set of idealized global model experiments was performed by several modeling centers as part of the Drought Working Group of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability component of the World Climate Research Programme (CLIVAR). The purpose of the experiments was to assess the role of the leading modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the climate over the continents, with particular emphasis on the influence of SSTs on surface climate variability and droughts over the United States. An analysis based on several models gives more creditability to the results since it relies on the assessment of impacts that are robust across different models. Coordinated atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with three modes of SST variability were analyzed. The results show that the SST-forced precipitation variability over the central United States is dominated by the SST mode with maximum loading in the central Pacific Ocean. The SST mode with loading in the Atlantic Ocean, and a mode that is dominated by trends in SSTs, lead to a smaller response. Based on the response to the idealized SSTs, the precipitation response for the twentieth century was also reconstructed. A comparison with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations forced with the observed SSTs illustrates that the reconstructed precipitation variability was similar to the one in the AMIP simulations, further supporting the conclusion that the SST modes identified in the present analysis play a dominant role in the precipitation variability over the United States. One notable exception is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and further analysis regarding this major climate extreme is discussed. Pegion P. Kumar A. 19635 Article We examine trends in surface air temperature for the San Juan Mountain region in southwestern Colorado from 1895 to 2005. Observations from both National Weather Service (NWS) and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites are analyzed. Results show a net warming of 1 °C between 1895 and 2005. Most of this warming occurred between 1990 and 2005, when the region experienced rapid and secular increases in temperature. Between 1950 and 1985, there was a cooling trend in the region during which there were significant decreases in the maximum temperature (Tmax) and almost no trend in the minimum temperature (Tmin). This cooling trend appears to be, in part, associated with increases in atmospheric aerosols. Between 1990 and 2005, the large increases in temperature anomalies are strongly correlated at the NWS and SNOTEL sites. Annual increases in Tmax and Tmin are similar between 1990 and 2005; however, they generally show greater increases during summer and winter, respectively. Spatially, there are similar increases in Tmax and Tmin except in the central mountain region, where the increases in Tmin are larger and started earlier. 2010-2 Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 42 89-97 0 10.1657/1938-4246-42.1.89 We examine trends in surface air temperature for the San Juan Mountain region in southwestern Colorado from 1895 to 2005. Observations from both National Weather Service (NWS) and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites are analyzed. Results show a net warming of 1 °C between 1895 and 2005. Most of this warming occurred between 1990 and 2005, when the region experienced rapid and secular increases in temperature. Between 1950 and 1985, there was a cooling trend in the region during which there were significant decreases in the maximum temperature (Tmax) and almost no trend in the minimum temperature (Tmin). This cooling trend appears to be, in part, associated with increases in atmospheric aerosols. Between 1990 and 2005, the large increases in temperature anomalies are strongly correlated at the NWS and SNOTEL sites. Annual increases in Tmax and Tmin are similar between 1990 and 2005; however, they generally show greater increases during summer and winter, respectively. Spatially, there are similar increases in Tmax and Tmin except in the central mountain region, where the increases in Tmin are larger and started earlier. Rangwala I. Miller J. R. 19637 Article The turbulent heat fluxes play a pivotal role in the exchange of energy between the atmosphere and ocean. The calculation of these fluxes over the global oceans requires the use of bulk aerodynamic or flux-gradient methods that rely on estimates of the sea surface temperature (SST), near-surface wind speed, air temperature, and specific humidity. Errors in current methodologies of satellite retrievals of near-surface properties have been shown to be the main sources of error for calculation of the fluxes. A new neural network technique is presented here that significantly improves the error characteristics of the air temperature and specific humidity compared to previous methods. Improvements in predicting near-surface wind speed and SST are also seen. Additional improvements are also made by accounting for the effects of high cloud liquid water contents, the effects of which can be mitigated through the use of regime-specific linear and nonlinear retrieval methods. The use of a first-guess SST is shown to result in significant improvement in retrieval accuracy. 2010-10 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 D19113 0 10.1029/2009JD013099 The turbulent heat fluxes play a pivotal role in the exchange of energy between the atmosphere and ocean. The calculation of these fluxes over the global oceans requires the use of bulk aerodynamic or flux-gradient methods that rely on estimates of the sea surface temperature (SST), near-surface wind speed, air temperature, and specific humidity. Errors in current methodologies of satellite retrievals of near-surface properties have been shown to be the main sources of error for calculation of the fluxes. A new neural network technique is presented here that significantly improves the error characteristics of the air temperature and specific humidity compared to previous methods. Improvements in predicting near-surface wind speed and SST are also seen. Additional improvements are also made by accounting for the effects of high cloud liquid water contents, the effects of which can be mitigated through the use of regime-specific linear and nonlinear retrieval methods. The use of a first-guess SST is shown to result in significant improvement in retrieval accuracy. Roberts J. B. Clayson C. A. Robertson F. R. Jackson D. L. 19638 Article Satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis are used to examine the transition from unbroken sheets of stratocumulus to fields of scattered cumulus, and the processes controlling them, in four subtropical oceans. A Lagrangian analysis suggests that both the transition, defined as the temporal evolution in cloudiness, and the processes driving the transition, are quite similar among the subtropical oceans. The increase in sea surface temperature and the associated decrease in lower tropospheric stability appear to play a far more important role in cloud evolution than other factors including changes in large scale divergence and upper tropospheric humidity. During the summer months, the transitions in marine boundary layer cloudiness appear so systematically that their characteristics obtained by documenting the flow of thousands of individual air masses are well reproduced by the mean (or climatological) fields of the different data sets. This highlights interesting opportunities for future observational and modeling studies of these transitions. 2010-3 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2377-2391 0 10.5194/acp-10-2377-2010 Satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis are used to examine the transition from unbroken sheets of stratocumulus to fields of scattered cumulus, and the processes controlling them, in four subtropical oceans. A Lagrangian analysis suggests that both the transition, defined as the temporal evolution in cloudiness, and the processes driving the transition, are quite similar among the subtropical oceans. The increase in sea surface temperature and the associated decrease in lower tropospheric stability appear to play a far more important role in cloud evolution than other factors including changes in large scale divergence and upper tropospheric humidity. During the summer months, the transitions in marine boundary layer cloudiness appear so systematically that their characteristics obtained by documenting the flow of thousands of individual air masses are well reproduced by the mean (or climatological) fields of the different data sets. This highlights interesting opportunities for future observational and modeling studies of these transitions. Sandu I. Stevens B. Pincus R. 19639 Article Hydrologists are increasingly using numerical weather forecasting products as an input to their hydrological models. These products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared with hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the nonlinear hydrological filters. Therefore, the data need processing before they can be used in hydrological applications. This manuscript summarises discussions and recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Meteo France, Toulouse, France, 15–18 June 2008. The recommendations were developed by work groups that considered the following three areas of ensemble prediction: (1) short range (0–2 days), (2) medium range (3 days to 2 weeks), and (3) sub-seasonal and seasonal (beyond 2 weeks). 2010-4 Atmos. Sci. Lett. 11 59-63 0 10.1002/asl.267 Hydrologists are increasingly using numerical weather forecasting products as an input to their hydrological models. These products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared with hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the nonlinear hydrological filters. Therefore, the data need processing before they can be used in hydrological applications. This manuscript summarises discussions and recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Meteo France, Toulouse, France, 15–18 June 2008. The recommendations were developed by work groups that considered the following three areas of ensemble prediction: (1) short range (0–2 days), (2) medium range (3 days to 2 weeks), and (3) sub-seasonal and seasonal (beyond 2 weeks). Schaake J. Pailleux J. Thielen J. Arritt R. Hamill T. M. Luo L. F. Martin E. McCollor D. Pappenberger F. 19640 Article Easterly waves (EWs) are prominent features of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), found in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, where they commonly serve as precursors to hurricanes over both basins. A large proportion of Atlantic EWs are known to form over Africa, but the origin of EWs over the Caribbean and east Pacific in particular has not been established in detail. In this study reanalyses are used to examine the coherence of the large-scale wave signatures and to obtain track statistics and energy conversion terms for EWs across this region. Regression analysis demonstrates that some EW kinematic structures readily propagate between the Atlantic and east Pacific, with the highest correlations observed across Costa Rica and Panama. Track statistics are consistent with this analysis and suggest that some individual waves are maintained as they pass from the Atlantic into the east Pacific, whereas others are generated locally in the Caribbean and east Pacific. Vortex anomalies associated with the waves are observed on the leeward side of the Sierra Madre, propagating northwestward along the coast, consistent with previous modeling studies of the interactions between zonal flow and EWs with model topography similar to the Sierra Madre. An energetics analysis additionally indicates that the Caribbean low-level jet and its extension into the east Pacific—known as the Papagayo jet—are a source of energy for EWs in the region. Two case studies support these statistics, as well as demonstrate the modulation of EW track and storm development location by the MJO. 2010-9 J. Climate 23 4823-4840 0 10.1175/2010JCLI3223.1 Easterly waves (EWs) are prominent features of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), found in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, where they commonly serve as precursors to hurricanes over both basins. A large proportion of Atlantic EWs are known to form over Africa, but the origin of EWs over the Caribbean and east Pacific in particular has not been established in detail. In this study reanalyses are used to examine the coherence of the large-scale wave signatures and to obtain track statistics and energy conversion terms for EWs across this region. Regression analysis demonstrates that some EW kinematic structures readily propagate between the Atlantic and east Pacific, with the highest correlations observed across Costa Rica and Panama. Track statistics are consistent with this analysis and suggest that some individual waves are maintained as they pass from the Atlantic into the east Pacific, whereas others are generated locally in the Caribbean and east Pacific. Vortex anomalies associated with the waves are observed on the leeward side of the Sierra Madre, propagating northwestward along the coast, consistent with previous modeling studies of the interactions between zonal flow and EWs with model topography similar to the Sierra Madre. An energetics analysis additionally indicates that the Caribbean low-level jet and its extension into the east Pacific—known as the Papagayo jet—are a source of energy for EWs in the region. Two case studies support these statistics, as well as demonstrate the modulation of EW track and storm development location by the MJO. Serra Y. L. Kiladis G. N. Hodges K. I. 19641 Article The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services. 2010-10 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 1377-1388 0 10.1175/2010BAMS2944.1 The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services. Shapiro M. Shukla J. Brunet G. . . . Dole R. M. al. et 19642 Article The impact of stratospheric model configuration on modeled planetary-scale waves in Northern Hemisphere winter is examined using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The CMAM configurations include a high-lid (0.001 hPa) and a low-lid (10 hPa) configuration, which were each run with and without conservation of parameterized gravity wave momentum flux. The planetary wave structure, vertical propagation, and the basic state are found to be in good agreement with reanalysis data for the high-lid conservative configuration with the exception of the downward-propagating wave 1 signal. When the lid is lowered and momentum is conserved, the wave characteristics and basic state are not significantly altered, with the exception of the downward-propagating wave 1 signal, which is damped by the act of conservation. When momentum is not conserved, however, the wave amplitude increases significantly near the lid, and there is a large increase in both the upward- and downward-propagating wave 1 signals and a significant increase in the strength of the basic state. The impact of conserving parameterized gravity wave momentum flux is found to be much larger than that of the model lid height. The changes to the planetary waves and basic state significantly impact the stratosphere–troposphere coupling in the different configurations. In the low-lid configuration, there is an increase in wave-reflection-type coupling over zonal-mean-type coupling, a reduction in stratospheric sudden warming events, and an increase in the northern annular mode time scale. Conserving gravity wave momentum flux in the low-lid configuration significantly reduces these biases. 2010-6 J. Climate 23 3369-3389 0 10.1175/2010jcli3438.1 The impact of stratospheric model configuration on modeled planetary-scale waves in Northern Hemisphere winter is examined using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The CMAM configurations include a high-lid (0.001 hPa) and a low-lid (10 hPa) configuration, which were each run with and without conservation of parameterized gravity wave momentum flux. The planetary wave structure, vertical propagation, and the basic state are found to be in good agreement with reanalysis data for the high-lid conservative configuration with the exception of the downward-propagating wave 1 signal. When the lid is lowered and momentum is conserved, the wave characteristics and basic state are not significantly altered, with the exception of the downward-propagating wave 1 signal, which is damped by the act of conservation. When momentum is not conserved, however, the wave amplitude increases significantly near the lid, and there is a large increase in both the upward- and downward-propagating wave 1 signals and a significant increase in the strength of the basic state. The impact of conserving parameterized gravity wave momentum flux is found to be much larger than that of the model lid height. The changes to the planetary waves and basic state significantly impact the stratosphere–troposphere coupling in the different configurations. In the low-lid configuration, there is an increase in wave-reflection-type coupling over zonal-mean-type coupling, a reduction in stratospheric sudden warming events, and an increase in the northern annular mode time scale. Conserving gravity wave momentum flux in the low-lid configuration significantly reduces these biases. Shaw T. A. Perlwitz J. 19643 Article The nature of downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in both hemispheres is analyzed using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves reflected in the stratosphere impact the troposphere, and it is distinct from zonal-mean coupling, which results from wave dissipation and its subsequent impact on the zonal-mean flow. Cross-spectral correlation analysis and wave geometry diagnostics reveal that downward wave-1 coupling occurs in the presence of both a vertical reflecting surface in the mid-to-upper stratosphere and a high-latitude meridional waveguide in the lower stratosphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, downward wave coupling occurs from September to December, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere it occurs from January to March. A vertical reflecting surface is also present in the stratosphere during early winter in both hemispheres; however, it forms at the poleward edge of the meridional waveguide, which is not confined to high latitudes. The absence of a high-latitude waveguide allows meridional wave propagation into the subtropics and decreases the likelihood of downward wave coupling. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between wave reflection in general, which requires a vertical reflecting surface, and downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, which requires both a vertical reflecting surface and a high-latitude meridional waveguide. The relative roles of downward wave and zonal-mean coupling in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres are subsequently compared. In the Southern Hemisphere, downward wave-1 coupling dominates, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere downward wave-1 coupling and zonal-mean coupling are found to be equally important from winter to early spring. The results suggest that an accurate representation of the seasonal cycle of the wave geometry is necessary for the proper representation of downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. 2010-12 J. Climate 23 6365-6381 0 10.1175/2010JCLI3804.1 The nature of downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in both hemispheres is analyzed using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves reflected in the stratosphere impact the troposphere, and it is distinct from zonal-mean coupling, which results from wave dissipation and its subsequent impact on the zonal-mean flow. Cross-spectral correlation analysis and wave geometry diagnostics reveal that downward wave-1 coupling occurs in the presence of both a vertical reflecting surface in the mid-to-upper stratosphere and a high-latitude meridional waveguide in the lower stratosphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, downward wave coupling occurs from September to December, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere it occurs from January to March. A vertical reflecting surface is also present in the stratosphere during early winter in both hemispheres; however, it forms at the poleward edge of the meridional waveguide, which is not confined to high latitudes. The absence of a high-latitude waveguide allows meridional wave propagation into the subtropics and decreases the likelihood of downward wave coupling. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between wave reflection in general, which requires a vertical reflecting surface, and downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, which requires both a vertical reflecting surface and a high-latitude meridional waveguide. The relative roles of downward wave and zonal-mean coupling in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres are subsequently compared. In the Southern Hemisphere, downward wave-1 coupling dominates, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere downward wave-1 coupling and zonal-mean coupling are found to be equally important from winter to early spring. The results suggest that an accurate representation of the seasonal cycle of the wave geometry is necessary for the proper representation of downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. Shaw T. A. Perlwitz J. Harnik N. 19644 Article The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere is investigated using a suite of Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry–climate model (GEOS CCM) simulations. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves reflected in the stratosphere impact the troposphere. In reanalysis data, the climatological coupling occurs from September to December when the stratospheric basic state has a well-defined high-latitude meridional waveguide in the lower stratosphere that is bounded above by a reflecting surface, called a bounded wave geometry. Reanalysis data suggests that downward wave coupling during November–December has increased during the last three decades. The GEOS CCM simulation of the recent past captures the main features of downward wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Consistent with the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) dataset, wave coupling in the model maximizes during October–November when there is a bounded wave geometry configuration. However, the wave coupling in the model is stronger than in the MERRA dataset, and starts earlier and ends later in the seasonal cycle. The late season bias is caused by a bias in the timing of the stratospheric polar vortex breakup. Temporal changes in stratospheric ozone associated with past depletion and future recovery significantly impact downward wave coupling in the model. During the period of ozone depletion, the spring bounded wave geometry, which is favorable for downward wave coupling, extends into early summer, due to a delay in the vortex breakup date, and leads to increased downward wave coupling during November–December. During the period of ozone recovery, the stratospheric basic state during November–December shifts from a spring configuration back to a summer configuration, where waves are trapped in the troposphere, and leads to a decrease in downward wave coupling. Model simulations with chlorine fixed at 1960 values and increasing greenhouse gases show no significant changes in downward wave coupling and confirm that the changes in downward wave coupling in the model are caused by ozone changes. The results reveal a new mechanism wherein stratospheric ozone changes can affect the tropospheric circulation. 2010-8 J. Climate 24 4210-4229 0 10.1175/2011JCLI4170.1 The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere is investigated using a suite of Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry–climate model (GEOS CCM) simulations. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves reflected in the stratosphere impact the troposphere. In reanalysis data, the climatological coupling occurs from September to December when the stratospheric basic state has a well-defined high-latitude meridional waveguide in the lower stratosphere that is bounded above by a reflecting surface, called a bounded wave geometry. Reanalysis data suggests that downward wave coupling during November–December has increased during the last three decades. The GEOS CCM simulation of the recent past captures the main features of downward wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Consistent with the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) dataset, wave coupling in the model maximizes during October–November when there is a bounded wave geometry configuration. However, the wave coupling in the model is stronger than in the MERRA dataset, and starts earlier and ends later in the seasonal cycle. The late season bias is caused by a bias in the timing of the stratospheric polar vortex breakup. Temporal changes in stratospheric ozone associated with past depletion and future recovery significantly impact downward wave coupling in the model. During the period of ozone depletion, the spring bounded wave geometry, which is favorable for downward wave coupling, extends into early summer, due to a delay in the vortex breakup date, and leads to increased downward wave coupling during November–December. During the period of ozone recovery, the stratospheric basic state during November–December shifts from a spring configuration back to a summer configuration, where waves are trapped in the troposphere, and leads to a decrease in downward wave coupling. Model simulations with chlorine fixed at 1960 values and increasing greenhouse gases show no significant changes in downward wave coupling and confirm that the changes in downward wave coupling in the model are caused by ozone changes. The results reveal a new mechanism wherein stratospheric ozone changes can affect the tropospheric circulation. Shaw T. A. Perlwitz J. Harnik N. Newman P. A. Pawson S. 19645 Article An important emerging issue in climate research is the degree to which a sea surface temperature (SST) change in one tropical ocean basin affects the SST in other basins. In this study, the SST interactions among eight broadly defined regions of coherent SST variability in the tropical Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans are estimated using 3 observational and 76 climate model simulation data sets of the 20th century. The eight-dimensional SST feedback matrix is estimated separately using each data set by constructing a Linear Inverse Model based on the lag-covariance statistics of the 100 year monthly SST time series. The simulated feedback matrices are found to differ in several key respects from the observed matrices and also from one another. In particular, the influence of the eastern Pacific ENSO region on other regions and of the other regions on the ENSO region is found to vary considerably from model to model. The representation of remote interactions with the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region is also found to be highly variable. It is argued that these large errors/differences arise mainly from differences in the representation of the remote atmospheric teleconnective feedbacks, and to a lesser extent the local radiative-thermodynamic feedbacks, on the SSTs in the models, whereas differences in the representation of the tropical oceanic wave dynamics are likely less important. 2010-11 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 D21110 0 10.1029/2010JD013927 An important emerging issue in climate research is the degree to which a sea surface temperature (SST) change in one tropical ocean basin affects the SST in other basins. In this study, the SST interactions among eight broadly defined regions of coherent SST variability in the tropical Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans are estimated using 3 observational and 76 climate model simulation data sets of the 20th century. The eight-dimensional SST feedback matrix is estimated separately using each data set by constructing a Linear Inverse Model based on the lag-covariance statistics of the 100 year monthly SST time series. The simulated feedback matrices are found to differ in several key respects from the observed matrices and also from one another. In particular, the influence of the eastern Pacific ENSO region on other regions and of the other regions on the ENSO region is found to vary considerably from model to model. The representation of remote interactions with the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region is also found to be highly variable. It is argued that these large errors/differences arise mainly from differences in the representation of the remote atmospheric teleconnective feedbacks, and to a lesser extent the local radiative-thermodynamic feedbacks, on the SSTs in the models, whereas differences in the representation of the tropical oceanic wave dynamics are likely less important. Shin S.-I. Sardeshmukh P. D. Pegion K. 19646 Article The optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought is identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is determined for each of 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly “patches” in a regular array over the tropical oceans. The robustness and relevance of the optimal pattern are established through the consistency of results obtained using two different models, and also by the good correspondence of the projection time series of historical tropical SST anomaly fields on the optimal pattern with the time series of the simulated PDSI in separate model integrations with prescribed time-varying observed global SST fields for 1920–2005. It is noteworthy that this optimal drought forcing pattern differs markedly in the Pacific Ocean from the dominant SST pattern associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and also shows a large sensitivity of North American drought to Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. 2010-7 J. Climate 23 3907-3917 0 10.1175/2010jcli3360.1 The optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought is identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is determined for each of 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly “patches” in a regular array over the tropical oceans. The robustness and relevance of the optimal pattern are established through the consistency of results obtained using two different models, and also by the good correspondence of the projection time series of historical tropical SST anomaly fields on the optimal pattern with the time series of the simulated PDSI in separate model integrations with prescribed time-varying observed global SST fields for 1920–2005. It is noteworthy that this optimal drought forcing pattern differs markedly in the Pacific Ocean from the dominant SST pattern associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and also shows a large sensitivity of North American drought to Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. Shin S.-I. Sardeshmukh P. D. Webb R. S. 19647 Article One of the major goals of the 2005 Antarctic Tropospheric Chemistry Investigation (ANTCI) was to bridge the information gap between current knowledge of South Pole (SP) chemistry and that of the plateau. The former has been extensively studied, but its geographical position on the edge of the plateau makes extrapolating these findings across the plateau problematic. The airborne observations reported here demonstrate that, as at SP, elevated levels of nitric oxide (NO) are a common summertime feature of the plateau. As in earlier studies, planetary boundary layer (PBL) variations were a contributing factor leading to NO fluctuations. Thus, extensive use was made of in situ measurements and models to characterize PBL depths along each flight path and over broader areas of the plateau. Consistent with earlier SP studies that revealed photolysis of nitrate in surface snow as the source of NOx, large vertical gradients in NO were observed over most plateau areas sampled. Similar gradients were also found for the nitrogen species HNO3 and HO2NO2 and for O3. Thus, a common meteorological-chemical feature found was shallow PBLs associated with nitrogen species concentrations that exceeded free tropospheric levels. Collectively, these new results greatly extend the geographical sampling footprint defined by earlier SP studies. In particular, they suggest that previous assessments of the plateau as simply a chemical depository need updating. Although the evidence supporting this position comes in many forms, the fact that net photochemical production of ozone occurs during summer months over extensive areas of the plateau is pivotal. 2010-4 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 D07304 0 10.1029/2009JD012605 One of the major goals of the 2005 Antarctic Tropospheric Chemistry Investigation (ANTCI) was to bridge the information gap between current knowledge of South Pole (SP) chemistry and that of the plateau. The former has been extensively studied, but its geographical position on the edge of the plateau makes extrapolating these findings across the plateau problematic. The airborne observations reported here demonstrate that, as at SP, elevated levels of nitric oxide (NO) are a common summertime feature of the plateau. As in earlier studies, planetary boundary layer (PBL) variations were a contributing factor leading to NO fluctuations. Thus, extensive use was made of in situ measurements and models to characterize PBL depths along each flight path and over broader areas of the plateau. Consistent with earlier SP studies that revealed photolysis of nitrate in surface snow as the source of NOx, large vertical gradients in NO were observed over most plateau areas sampled. Similar gradients were also found for the nitrogen species HNO3 and HO2NO2 and for O3. Thus, a common meteorological-chemical feature found was shallow PBLs associated with nitrogen species concentrations that exceeded free tropospheric levels. Collectively, these new results greatly extend the geographical sampling footprint defined by earlier SP studies. In particular, they suggest that previous assessments of the plateau as simply a chemical depository need updating. Although the evidence supporting this position comes in many forms, the fact that net photochemical production of ozone occurs during summer months over extensive areas of the plateau is pivotal. Slusher D. L. Neff W. D. Kim S. al. et 19648 Article Atmospheric rivers accompanying Pacific storm systems play an important role in supplying moisture to the West Coast. Heavy precipitation associated with these systems falls not only along the west-facing slopes of the Coastal Range but also along the windward slopes of the interior Sierra Mountains. Simulations of the 29–31 December 2005 storm in northern California using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were able to realistically resolve the structure and strength of the water vapor fluxes over ocean and land. The cross-barrier, southwesterly water vapor fluxes, peaking near 700 kg m−1 s−1 at the coast, dominated the airmass transformation over the northern California mountain complex. However, there was also significant northward water vapor flux along the base of the Sierras. The combination of a narrow, short-lived water vapor source from the atmospheric river, the gap in terrain facilitating flow around the coastal mountains, and the occurrence of a strong barrier jet at the base of the Sierras all contributed to the northward along-barrier water vapor fluxes within the storm. The coincident timing of the maximum water vapor flux into the central valley with the period when the barrier jet was well developed yielded up valley fluxes >300 kg m−1 s−1 for several hours. For the 29–31 December 2005 Pacific storm, the flow around the coastal terrain and up valley replenished about a quarter of the depleted water vapor lost over the coastal mountains. 2010-1 Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 74-100 0 10.1175/2009MWR2939.1 Atmospheric rivers accompanying Pacific storm systems play an important role in supplying moisture to the West Coast. Heavy precipitation associated with these systems falls not only along the west-facing slopes of the Coastal Range but also along the windward slopes of the interior Sierra Mountains. Simulations of the 29–31 December 2005 storm in northern California using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were able to realistically resolve the structure and strength of the water vapor fluxes over ocean and land. The cross-barrier, southwesterly water vapor fluxes, peaking near 700 kg m−1 s−1 at the coast, dominated the airmass transformation over the northern California mountain complex. However, there was also significant northward water vapor flux along the base of the Sierras. The combination of a narrow, short-lived water vapor source from the atmospheric river, the gap in terrain facilitating flow around the coastal mountains, and the occurrence of a strong barrier jet at the base of the Sierras all contributed to the northward along-barrier water vapor fluxes within the storm. The coincident timing of the maximum water vapor flux into the central valley with the period when the barrier jet was well developed yielded up valley fluxes >300 kg m−1 s−1 for several hours. For the 29–31 December 2005 Pacific storm, the flow around the coastal terrain and up valley replenished about a quarter of the depleted water vapor lost over the coastal mountains. Smith B. L. Yuter S. E. Neiman P. J. Kingsmill D. E. 19649 Article El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are known to force atmospheric teleconnections that impact extratropical sea surface temperatures and surface winds. In this paper we use focused model experiments to investigate whether this extratropical variability can feedback to, and significantly impact, the Tropics through ocean Rossby waves. We use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a reduced gravity Pacific Ocean model to isolate these potential feedback loops and quantify their impact on ENSO variability. We find that anomalous winds and heat fluxes located in regions of maximum mean subduction in the subtropical North Pacific trigger ocean Rossby waves that take approximately four years to reach the equator. Most notably, we demonstrate that this feedback loop causes a primarily 2-year ENSO, when only the Tropics is coupled, to shift to a more realistic broad 2–5 year range by damping ∼2 year variability and amplifying ∼4 year variability. 2010-1 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L02706 0 10.1029/2009GL041622 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are known to force atmospheric teleconnections that impact extratropical sea surface temperatures and surface winds. In this paper we use focused model experiments to investigate whether this extratropical variability can feedback to, and significantly impact, the Tropics through ocean Rossby waves. We use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a reduced gravity Pacific Ocean model to isolate these potential feedback loops and quantify their impact on ENSO variability. We find that anomalous winds and heat fluxes located in regions of maximum mean subduction in the subtropical North Pacific trigger ocean Rossby waves that take approximately four years to reach the equator. Most notably, we demonstrate that this feedback loop causes a primarily 2-year ENSO, when only the Tropics is coupled, to shift to a more realistic broad 2–5 year range by damping ∼2 year variability and amplifying ∼4 year variability. Solomon A. 19650 Article The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry-climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry-Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal-2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appears quasi-linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a given forcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results from differences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jet is generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes. This result is discussed in the context of quasi-geostrophic zonal mean dynamics. 2010-10 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115 D00M07 0 10.1029/2010JD014271 The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry-climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry-Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal-2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appears quasi-linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a given forcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results from differences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jet is generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes. This result is discussed in the context of quasi-geostrophic zonal mean dynamics. Son S.-W. Gerber E. P. Perlwitz J. Polvani L. M. al. et 19651 Article Data collected during the SHEBA and CASES-99 field programs are employed to examine the flux–gradient relationship for wind speed and temperature in the stably stratified boundary layer. The gradient-based and flux-based similarity functions are assessed in terms of the Richardson number Ri and the stability parameter z/Λ*, z being height and Λ* the local Obukhov length. The resulting functions are expressed in an analytical form, which is essentially unaffected by self-correlation, when thermal stratification is strong. Turbulence within the stably stratified boundary layer is classified into four regimes: “nearly-neutral” (0 < z/Λ* < 0.02), “weakly-stable” (0.02 < z/Λ* < 0.6), “very-stable” (0.6 < z/Λ* < 50), and “extremely-stable” (z/Λ* > 50). The flux-based similarity functions for gradients are constant in “nearly-neutral” conditions. In the “very-stable” regime, the dimensionless gradients are exponential, and proportional to (z/Λ*)3/5. The existence of scaling laws in “extremely-stable” conditions is doubtful. The Prandtl number Pr decreases from 0.9 in nearly-neutral conditions and to about 0.7 in the very-stable regime. The necessary condition for the presence of steady-state turbulence is Ri < 0.7. 2010-6 Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 135 385-405 0 10.1007/s10546-010-9482-3 Data collected during the SHEBA and CASES-99 field programs are employed to examine the flux–gradient relationship for wind speed and temperature in the stably stratified boundary layer. The gradient-based and flux-based similarity functions are assessed in terms of the Richardson number Ri and the stability parameter z/Λ*, z being height and Λ* the local Obukhov length. The resulting functions are expressed in an analytical form, which is essentially unaffected by self-correlation, when thermal stratification is strong. Turbulence within the stably stratified boundary layer is classified into four regimes: “nearly-neutral” (0 < z/Λ* < 0.02), “weakly-stable” (0.02 < z/Λ* < 0.6), “very-stable” (0.6 < z/Λ* < 50), and “extremely-stable” (z/Λ* > 50). The flux-based similarity functions for gradients are constant in “nearly-neutral” conditions. In the “very-stable” regime, the dimensionless gradients are exponential, and proportional to (z/Λ*)3/5. The existence of scaling laws in “extremely-stable” conditions is doubtful. The Prandtl number Pr decreases from 0.9 in nearly-neutral conditions and to about 0.7 in the very-stable regime. The necessary condition for the presence of steady-state turbulence is Ri < 0.7. Sorbjan Z. Grachev A. A. 19652 Article Understanding the processes controlling black carbon (BC) in the Arctic is crucial for evaluating the impact of anthropogenic and natural sources of BC on Arctic climate. Vertical profiles of BC mass loadings were observed from the surface to near 7-km altitude in April 2008 using a Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) during flights on the NOAA WP-3D research aircraft from Fairbanks, Alaska. These measurements were conducted during the NOAA-sponsored Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project. In the free troposphere, the Arctic air mass was influenced by long-range transport from biomass-burning and anthropogenic source regions at lower latitudes especially during the latter part of the campaign. Average BC mass mixing ratios peaked at about 150 ng BC (kg dry air )−1 near 5.5 km altitude in the aged Arctic air mass and 250 ng kg−1 at 4.5 km in biomass-burning influenced air. BC mass loadings were enhanced by up to a factor of 5 in biomass-burning influenced air compared to the aged Arctic air mass. At the bottom of some of the profiles, positive vertical gradients in BC were observed over the sea-ice. The vertical profiles generally occurred in the vicinity of open leads in the sea-ice. In the aged Arctic air mass, BC mass loadings more than doubled with increasing altitude within the ABL and across the boundary layer transition while carbon monoxide (CO) remained constant. This is evidence for depletion of BC mass in the ABL. BC mass loadings were positively correlated with O3 in ozone depletion events (ODEs) for all the observations in the ABL. Since bromine catalytically destroys ozone in the ABL after being released as molecular bromine in regions of new sea-ice formation at the surface, the BC–O3 correlation suggests that BC particles were removed by a surface process such as dry deposition. We develop a box model to estimate the dry deposition flux of BC mass to the snow constrained by the vertical profiles of BC mass in the ABL. Open leads in the sea-ice may increase vertical mixing and entrainment of pollution from the free troposphere possibly enhancing the deposition of BC aerosol to the snow. 2010-10 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 9667-9680 0 10.5194/acp-10-9667-2010 Understanding the processes controlling black carbon (BC) in the Arctic is crucial for evaluating the impact of anthropogenic and natural sources of BC on Arctic climate. Vertical profiles of BC mass loadings were observed from the surface to near 7-km altitude in April 2008 using a Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) during flights on the NOAA WP-3D research aircraft from Fairbanks, Alaska. These measurements were conducted during the NOAA-sponsored Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project. In the free troposphere, the Arctic air mass was influenced by long-range transport from biomass-burning and anthropogenic source regions at lower latitudes especially during the latter part of the campaign. Average BC mass mixing ratios peaked at about 150 ng BC (kg dry air )−1 near 5.5 km altitude in the aged Arctic air mass and 250 ng kg−1 at 4.5 km in biomass-burning influenced air. BC mass loadings were enhanced by up to a factor of 5 in biomass-burning influenced air compared to the aged Arctic air mass. At the bottom of some of the profiles, positive vertical gradients in BC were observed over the sea-ice. The vertical profiles generally occurred in the vicinity of open leads in the sea-ice. In the aged Arctic air mass, BC mass loadings more than doubled with increasing altitude within the ABL and across the boundary layer transition while carbon monoxide (CO) remained constant. This is evidence for depletion of BC mass in the ABL. BC mass loadings were positively correlated with O3 in ozone depletion events (ODEs) for all the observations in the ABL. Since bromine catalytically destroys ozone in the ABL after being released as molecular bromine in regions of new sea-ice formation at the surface, the BC–O3 correlation suggests that BC particles were removed by a surface process such as dry deposition. We develop a box model to estimate the dry deposition flux of BC mass to the snow constrained by the vertical profiles of BC mass in the ABL. Open leads in the sea-ice may increase vertical mixing and entrainment of pollution from the free troposphere possibly enhancing the deposition of BC aerosol to the snow. Spackman J. R. Gao R. S. Neff W. D. Schwarz J. P. 19653 Article To better understand variability in weather and climate, it is vital to address past atmospheric circulation. This need requires meteorological information not just from the surface but also at upper levels. Current global upper-level datasets only reach back to the 1940s or 1950s and do not cover some important periods in the first half of the twentieth century. Extending the observational record is therefore considered important in order to analyze climate variability in the past and verify global climate models used to predict future climate change. Although earlier upper-air data from platforms such as radio-sondes, aircraft, pilot balloons, registering balloons, and kites are available from various sources, no systematic compilation and quality assessment of upper-level data prior to the International Geophysical Year (1957/58) has ever been performed. Here we present the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN). It is a consistent global historical upper-air dataset that has been derived from heterogeneous data available from various sources as well as from newly digitized data. This paper describes the CHUAN dataset, the metadata, the quality control procedures, and the relationship to existing datasets. Some examples are given of its usefulness for analyzing weather and climate during the first half of the twentieth century. The CHUAN dataset comprises 3987 station records worldwide or about 16.4 million profiles (of which 12.6 million are before 1958 and 5.3 million, primarily from pilot balloons, are before 1948). A monthly mean version can be downloaded from the World Wide Web (www.historicalupperair.org). 2010-6 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 741-751 0 10.1175/2009BAMS2852.1 To better understand variability in weather and climate, it is vital to address past atmospheric circulation. This need requires meteorological information not just from the surface but also at upper levels. Current global upper-level datasets only reach back to the 1940s or 1950s and do not cover some important periods in the first half of the twentieth century. Extending the observational record is therefore considered important in order to analyze climate variability in the past and verify global climate models used to predict future climate change. Although earlier upper-air data from platforms such as radio-sondes, aircraft, pilot balloons, registering balloons, and kites are available from various sources, no systematic compilation and quality assessment of upper-level data prior to the International Geophysical Year (1957/58) has ever been performed. Here we present the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN). It is a consistent global historical upper-air dataset that has been derived from heterogeneous data available from various sources as well as from newly digitized data. This paper describes the CHUAN dataset, the metadata, the quality control procedures, and the relationship to existing datasets. Some examples are given of its usefulness for analyzing weather and climate during the first half of the twentieth century. The CHUAN dataset comprises 3987 station records worldwide or about 16.4 million profiles (of which 12.6 million are before 1958 and 5.3 million, primarily from pilot balloons, are before 1948). A monthly mean version can be downloaded from the World Wide Web (www.historicalupperair.org). Stickler A. Grant A. N. Ewen T. Ross T. F. Vose R. Comeaux J. Bessemoulin P. Jylha K. Jeannet P. Nagurny A. Sterlin A. M. Allan R. Compo G. P. Griesser T. Brönnimann S. 19654 Article Output from 20 coupled global climate models is analyzed to determine whether convectively coupled Kelvin waves exist in the models, and, if so, how their horizontal and vertical structures compare to observations. Model data are obtained from the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset. Ten of the 20 models contain spectral peaks in precipitation in the Kelvin wave band, and, of these 10, only 5 contain wave activity distributions and three-dimensional wave structures that resemble the observations. Thus, the majority (75%) of the global climate models surveyed do not accurately represent convectively coupled Kelvin waves, one of the primary sources of submonthly zonally propagating variability in the tropics. The primary feature common to the five successful models is the convective parameterization. Three of the five models use the Tiedtke–Nordeng convective scheme, while the other two utilize the Pan and Randall scheme. The 15 models with less success at generating Kelvin waves predominantly contain convective schemes that are based on the concept of convective adjustment, although it appears that those schemes can be improved by the addition of convective “trigger” functions. Three-dimensional Kelvin wave structures in the five successful models resemble observations to a large degree, with vertically tilted temperature, specific humidity, and zonal wind anomalies. However, no model completely captures the observed signal, with most of the models being deficient in lower-tropospheric temperature and humidity signals near the location of maximum precipitation. These results suggest the need for improvements in the representations of shallow convection and convective downdrafts in global models. 2010-6 J. Climate 23 3031-3056 0 10.1175/2009jcli3422.1 Output from 20 coupled global climate models is analyzed to determine whether convectively coupled Kelvin waves exist in the models, and, if so, how their horizontal and vertical structures compare to observations. Model data are obtained from the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset. Ten of the 20 models contain spectral peaks in precipitation in the Kelvin wave band, and, of these 10, only 5 contain wave activity distributions and three-dimensional wave structures that resemble the observations. Thus, the majority (75%) of the global climate models surveyed do not accurately represent convectively coupled Kelvin waves, one of the primary sources of submonthly zonally propagating variability in the tropics. The primary feature common to the five successful models is the convective parameterization. Three of the five models use the Tiedtke–Nordeng convective scheme, while the other two utilize the Pan and Randall scheme. The 15 models with less success at generating Kelvin waves predominantly contain convective schemes that are based on the concept of convective adjustment, although it appears that those schemes can be improved by the addition of convective “trigger” functions. Three-dimensional Kelvin wave structures in the five successful models resemble observations to a large degree, with vertically tilted temperature, specific humidity, and zonal wind anomalies. However, no model completely captures the observed signal, with most of the models being deficient in lower-tropospheric temperature and humidity signals near the location of maximum precipitation. These results suggest the need for improvements in the representations of shallow convection and convective downdrafts in global models. Straub K. H. Haertel P. T. Kiladis G. N. 19656 Article Fram Strait is the primary region of sea ice export from the Arctic and therefore plays an important role in regulating the amount of sea ice and freshwater within the Arctic. We investigate the variability of Fram Strait sea ice motion and the role of atmospheric circulation forcing using daily data during the period 1979–2006. The most prominent atmospheric driver of anomalous sea ice motion across Fram Strait is an east–west dipole pattern of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with centers of action located over the Barents Sea and Greenland. This pattern, also observed in synoptic studies, is associated with anomalous meridional winds across Fram Strait and is thus physically consistent with forcing changes in sea ice motion. The association between the SLP dipole pattern and Fram Strait ice motion is maximized at 0-lag, persists year-round, and is strongest on time scales of 10–60 days. The SLP dipole pattern is the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of daily SLP anomalies in both winter and summer. When the analysis is repeated with monthly data, only the Barents center of the SLP dipole remains significantly correlated with Fram Strait sea ice motion. However, after removing the leading EOF of monthly SLP variability (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), the full east–west dipole pattern is recovered. No significant SLP forcing of Fram Strait ice motion is found in summer using monthly data, even when the leading EOF is removed. Our results highlight the importance of high frequency atmospheric variability in forcing Fram Strait sea ice motion. 2010-12 Clim. Dyn. 35 1349-1360 0 10.1007/s00382-009-0647-z Fram Strait is the primary region of sea ice export from the Arctic and therefore plays an important role in regulating the amount of sea ice and freshwater within the Arctic. We investigate the variability of Fram Strait sea ice motion and the role of atmospheric circulation forcing using daily data during the period 1979–2006. The most prominent atmospheric driver of anomalous sea ice motion across Fram Strait is an east–west dipole pattern of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with centers of action located over the Barents Sea and Greenland. This pattern, also observed in synoptic studies, is associated with anomalous meridional winds across Fram Strait and is thus physically consistent with forcing changes in sea ice motion. The association between the SLP dipole pattern and Fram Strait ice motion is maximized at 0-lag, persists year-round, and is strongest on time scales of 10–60 days. The SLP dipole pattern is the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of daily SLP anomalies in both winter and summer. When the analysis is repeated with monthly data, only the Barents center of the SLP dipole remains significantly correlated with Fram Strait sea ice motion. However, after removing the leading EOF of monthly SLP variability (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), the full east–west dipole pattern is recovered. No significant SLP forcing of Fram Strait ice motion is found in summer using monthly data, even when the leading EOF is removed. Our results highlight the importance of high frequency atmospheric variability in forcing Fram Strait sea ice motion. Tsukernik M. Deser C. Alexander M. A. Tomas R. 19657 Article A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model, maintained in a statistically steady convecting state by tropics-like forcing, is subjected to sudden (10 min) stimuli consisting of horizontally homogeneous temperature and/or moisture sources with various profiles. Ensembles of simulations are used to increase the statistical robustness of the results and to assess the deterministic nature of the model response for domain sizes near contemporary global model resolution. The response to middle- and upper-tropospheric perturbations is predominantly local in the vertical: convection damps the imposed stimulus over a few hours. Low-level perturbations are similarly damped, but also produce a vertically nonlocal response: enhancement or suppression of new deep convective clouds extending above the perturbed level. Experiments show that the “effective inhibition layer” for deep convection is about 4 km deep, far deeper than traditional convective inhibition defined for undilute lifted parcels. Both the local and nonlocal responses are remarkably linear but can be highly stochastic, especially if deep convection is only intermittently present (small domains, weak forcing). Quantitatively, temperature-versus-moisture perturbations in a ratio corresponding to adiabatic vertical displacements produce responses of roughly equal magnitude. However, moisture perturbations seem to provoke the nonlocal (upward spreading) type of response more effectively. This nonlocal part of the response is also more effective when background forcing intensity is weak. Only at very high intensity does the response approach the limits of purely local damping and pure determinism that would be most convenient for theory and parameterization. 2010-4 J. Atmos. Sci. 67 923-940 0 10.1175/2009jas3277.1 A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model, maintained in a statistically steady convecting state by tropics-like forcing, is subjected to sudden (10 min) stimuli consisting of horizontally homogeneous temperature and/or moisture sources with various profiles. Ensembles of simulations are used to increase the statistical robustness of the results and to assess the deterministic nature of the model response for domain sizes near contemporary global model resolution. The response to middle- and upper-tropospheric perturbations is predominantly local in the vertical: convection damps the imposed stimulus over a few hours. Low-level perturbations are similarly damped, but also produce a vertically nonlocal response: enhancement or suppression of new deep convective clouds extending above the perturbed level. Experiments show that the “effective inhibition layer” for deep convection is about 4 km deep, far deeper than traditional convective inhibition defined for undilute lifted parcels. Both the local and nonlocal responses are remarkably linear but can be highly stochastic, especially if deep convection is only intermittently present (small domains, weak forcing). Quantitatively, temperature-versus-moisture perturbations in a ratio corresponding to adiabatic vertical displacements produce responses of roughly equal magnitude. However, moisture perturbations seem to provoke the nonlocal (upward spreading) type of response more effectively. This nonlocal part of the response is also more effective when background forcing intensity is weak. Only at very high intensity does the response approach the limits of purely local damping and pure determinism that would be most convenient for theory and parameterization. Tulich S. Mapes B. 19658 Article The snow level, or altitude in the atmosphere where snow melts to rain, is an important variable for hydrometeorological prediction in mountainous watersheds; yet, there is no operational performance measure associated with snow-level forecasts in the United States. To establish a performance measure, it is first necessary to establish the baseline performance associated with snow-level forecasts. Using data collected by vertically pointing Doppler radars, an automated algorithm has been developed to detect the altitude of maximum radar reflectivity in the radar bright band that results from the precipitation melting process. This altitude can be used as a proxy for the snow level, partly because it always exists below the freezing level, which is defined as the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The skill of freezing-level forecasts produced by the California–Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) is evaluated by comparing spatially interpolated and forecaster-adjusted numerical model freezing-level forecasts with observed freezing levels estimated by radars operating at 2875 MHz (S band). The freezing level was chosen instead of the snow level as the comparison parameter because the radar algorithm and the CNRFC have different interpretations of the snow level. The evaluation occurred at two sites: one in the coastal mountains north of San Francisco and the other in the Sierra Nevada. The evaluation was conducted for forecasts made during the winter wet season of 2005/06. Although the overall mean freezing-level forecast bias is small enough not to be hydrologically significant, about 15% of the forecasts had biases greater than 300 m (forecast too low). The largest forecast biases were associated with freezing levels above 2.3 km that were underforecasted by as much as 900 m. These high freezing-level events were accompanied by the heaviest precipitation intensities, exacerbating the flood threat and making the forecast even more challenging. 2010-6 J. Hydrometeor. 11 739-753 0 10.1175/2009JHM1181.1 The snow level, or altitude in the atmosphere where snow melts to rain, is an important variable for hydrometeorological prediction in mountainous watersheds; yet, there is no operational performance measure associated with snow-level forecasts in the United States. To establish a performance measure, it is first necessary to establish the baseline performance associated with snow-level forecasts. Using data collected by vertically pointing Doppler radars, an automated algorithm has been developed to detect the altitude of maximum radar reflectivity in the radar bright band that results from the precipitation melting process. This altitude can be used as a proxy for the snow level, partly because it always exists below the freezing level, which is defined as the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The skill of freezing-level forecasts produced by the California–Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) is evaluated by comparing spatially interpolated and forecaster-adjusted numerical model freezing-level forecasts with observed freezing levels estimated by radars operating at 2875 MHz (S band). The freezing level was chosen instead of the snow level as the comparison parameter because the radar algorithm and the CNRFC have different interpretations of the snow level. The evaluation occurred at two sites: one in the coastal mountains north of San Francisco and the other in the Sierra Nevada. The evaluation was conducted for forecasts made during the winter wet season of 2005/06. Although the overall mean freezing-level forecast bias is small enough not to be hydrologically significant, about 15% of the forecasts had biases greater than 300 m (forecast too low). The largest forecast biases were associated with freezing levels above 2.3 km that were underforecasted by as much as 900 m. These high freezing-level events were accompanied by the heaviest precipitation intensities, exacerbating the flood threat and making the forecast even more challenging. White A. B. Gottas D. J. Henkel A. F. Neiman P. J. Martin F. M. Gutman S. I. 19659 Article Reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) signals can be used to infer information about soil moisture in the vicinity of the GPS antenna. Interference of direct and reflected signals causes the composite signal, observed using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data, to undulate with time while the GPS satellite ascends or descends at relatively low elevation angles. The soil moisture change affects both the phase of the SNR modulation pattern and its magnitude. In order to more thoroughly understand the mechanism of how the soil moisture change leads to a change in the SNR modulation, we built an electrodynamic model of GPS direct and reflected signal interference, i.e., multipath, that has a bare-soil model as the input and the total GPS received power as the output. This model treats soil as a continuously stratified medium with a specific composition of material ingredients having complex dielectric permittivity according to well-known mixing models. The critical part of this electrodynamic model is a numerical algorithm that allows us to calculate polarization-dependent reflection coefficients of such media with various profiles of dielectric permittivity dictated by the soil type and moisture. In this paper, we demonstrate how this model can reproduce and explain the main features of experimental multipath modulation patterns such as changes in phase and amplitude. We also discuss the interplay between true penetration depth and effective reflector depth. Based on these modeling comparisons, we formulate recommendations to improve the performance of bare soil moisture retrievals from the data obtained using GPS multipath modulation. 2010-3 IEEE J. Select. Topics Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 3 100-110 0 10.1109/JSTARS.2009.2033608 Reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) signals can be used to infer information about soil moisture in the vicinity of the GPS antenna. Interference of direct and reflected signals causes the composite signal, observed using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data, to undulate with time while the GPS satellite ascends or descends at relatively low elevation angles. The soil moisture change affects both the phase of the SNR modulation pattern and its magnitude. In order to more thoroughly understand the mechanism of how the soil moisture change leads to a change in the SNR modulation, we built an electrodynamic model of GPS direct and reflected signal interference, i.e., multipath, that has a bare-soil model as the input and the total GPS received power as the output. This model treats soil as a continuously stratified medium with a specific composition of material ingredients having complex dielectric permittivity according to well-known mixing models. The critical part of this electrodynamic model is a numerical algorithm that allows us to calculate polarization-dependent reflection coefficients of such media with various profiles of dielectric permittivity dictated by the soil type and moisture. In this paper, we demonstrate how this model can reproduce and explain the main features of experimental multipath modulation patterns such as changes in phase and amplitude. We also discuss the interplay between true penetration depth and effective reflector depth. Based on these modeling comparisons, we formulate recommendations to improve the performance of bare soil moisture retrievals from the data obtained using GPS multipath modulation. Zavorotny V. U. Larson K. Braun J. Small E. Gutmann E. Bilich A. 19660 Article This study examines the prediction and predictability of the recent catastrophic rainfall and flooding event over Taiwan induced by Typhoon Morakot (2009) with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. A high-resolution convection-permitting mesoscale ensemble, initialized with analysis and flow-dependent perturbations obtained from a real-time global ensemble data assimilation system, is found to be able to predict this record-breaking rainfall event, producing probability forecasts potentially valuable to the emergency management decision makers and the general public. Since all the advanced modeling and data assimilation techniques used here are readily available for real-time operational implementation provided sufficient computing resources are made available, this study demonstrates the potential and need of using ensemble-based analysis and forecasting, along with enhanced computing, in predicting extreme weather events like Typhoon Morakot at operational centers. 2010-12 Wea. Forecasting 25 1816-1825 0 10.1175/2010WAF2222414.1 This study examines the prediction and predictability of the recent catastrophic rainfall and flooding event over Taiwan induced by Typhoon Morakot (2009) with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. A high-resolution convection-permitting mesoscale ensemble, initialized with analysis and flow-dependent perturbations obtained from a real-time global ensemble data assimilation system, is found to be able to predict this record-breaking rainfall event, producing probability forecasts potentially valuable to the emergency management decision makers and the general public. Since all the advanced modeling and data assimilation techniques used here are readily available for real-time operational implementation provided sufficient computing resources are made available, this study demonstrates the potential and need of using ensemble-based analysis and forecasting, along with enhanced computing, in predicting extreme weather events like Typhoon Morakot at operational centers. Zhang F. Weng Y. Kuo Y.-H. Whitaker J. S. Xie B. 19661 Article The annual mean heat budget of the upper ocean beneath the stratocumulus/stratus cloud deck in the southeast Pacific is estimated using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and an eddy-resolving Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Both are compared with estimates based on Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Improved Meteorological (IMET) buoy observations at 20°S, 85°W. Net surface heat fluxes are positive (warming) over most of the area under the stratus cloud deck. Upper-ocean processes responsible for balancing the surface heat flux are examined by estimating each term in the heat equation. In contrast to surface heat fluxes, geostrophic transport in the upper 50 m causes net cooling in most of the stratus cloud deck region. Ekman transport provides net warming north of the IMET site and net cooling south of the IMET site. Although the eddy heat flux divergence term can be comparable to other terms at a particular location, such as the IMET mooring site, it is negligible for the entire stratus region when area averaged because it is not spatially coherent in the open ocean. Although cold-core eddies are often generated near the coast in the eddy-resolving model, they do not significantly impact the heat budget in the open ocean in the southeast Pacific. 2010-1 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40 103-120 0 10.1175/2009JPO4213.1 The annual mean heat budget of the upper ocean beneath the stratocumulus/stratus cloud deck in the southeast Pacific is estimated using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and an eddy-resolving Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Both are compared with estimates based on Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Improved Meteorological (IMET) buoy observations at 20°S, 85°W. Net surface heat fluxes are positive (warming) over most of the area under the stratus cloud deck. Upper-ocean processes responsible for balancing the surface heat flux are examined by estimating each term in the heat equation. In contrast to surface heat fluxes, geostrophic transport in the upper 50 m causes net cooling in most of the stratus cloud deck region. Ekman transport provides net warming north of the IMET site and net cooling south of the IMET site. Although the eddy heat flux divergence term can be comparable to other terms at a particular location, such as the IMET mooring site, it is negligible for the entire stratus region when area averaged because it is not spatially coherent in the open ocean. Although cold-core eddies are often generated near the coast in the eddy-resolving model, they do not significantly impact the heat budget in the open ocean in the southeast Pacific. Zheng Y. Shinoda T. Kiladis G. N. Lin J. Metzger E. J. Hurlburt H. E. Giese B. 19662 Article A new dataset synthesizes in situ and remote sensing observations from research ships deployed to the southeastern tropical Pacific stratocumulus region for 7 years in boreal fall. Surface meteorology, turbulent and radiative fluxes, aerosols, cloud properties, and rawinsonde profiles were measured on nine ship transects along 20°S from 75° to 85°W. Fluxes at the ocean surface are essential to the equilibrium SST. Solar radiation is the only warming net heat flux, with 180–200 W m−2 in boreal fall. The strongest cooling is evaporation (60–100 W m−2), followed by net thermal infrared radiation (30 W m−2) and sensible heat flux (<10 W m−2). The 70 W m−2 imbalance of heating at the surface reflects the seasonal SST tendency and some 30 W m−2 cooling that is mostly due to ocean transport. Coupled models simulate significant SST errors in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Three different observation-based gridded ocean surface flux products agree with ship and buoy observations, while fluxes simulated by 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 [CMIP3; used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report] general circulation models have relatively large errors. This suggests the gridded observation-based flux datasets are sufficiently accurate for verifying coupled models. Longwave cooling and solar warming are correlated among model simulations, consistent with cloud radiative forcing and low cloud amount differences. In those simulations with excessive solar heating, elevated SST also results in larger evaporation and longwave cooling to compensate for the solar excess. Excessive turbulent heat fluxes (10–90 W m−2 cooling, mostly evaporation) are the largest errors in simulations once the compensation between solar and longwave radiation is taken into account. In addition to excessive solar warming and evaporation, models simulate too little oceanic residual cooling in the southeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 2010-8 J. Climate 23 4152-4174 0 10.1175/2010jcli3411.1 A new dataset synthesizes in situ and remote sensing observations from research ships deployed to the southeastern tropical Pacific stratocumulus region for 7 years in boreal fall. Surface meteorology, turbulent and radiative fluxes, aerosols, cloud properties, and rawinsonde profiles were measured on nine ship transects along 20°S from 75° to 85°W. Fluxes at the ocean surface are essential to the equilibrium SST. Solar radiation is the only warming net heat flux, with 180–200 W m−2 in boreal fall. The strongest cooling is evaporation (60–100 W m−2), followed by net thermal infrared radiation (30 W m−2) and sensible heat flux (<10 W m−2). The 70 W m−2 imbalance of heating at the surface reflects the seasonal SST tendency and some 30 W m−2 cooling that is mostly due to ocean transport. Coupled models simulate significant SST errors in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Three different observation-based gridded ocean surface flux products agree with ship and buoy observations, while fluxes simulated by 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 [CMIP3; used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report] general circulation models have relatively large errors. This suggests the gridded observation-based flux datasets are sufficiently accurate for verifying coupled models. Longwave cooling and solar warming are correlated among model simulations, consistent with cloud radiative forcing and low cloud amount differences. In those simulations with excessive solar heating, elevated SST also results in larger evaporation and longwave cooling to compensate for the solar excess. Excessive turbulent heat fluxes (10–90 W m−2 cooling, mostly evaporation) are the largest errors in simulations once the compensation between solar and longwave radiation is taken into account. In addition to excessive solar warming and evaporation, models simulate too little oceanic residual cooling in the southeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. de Szoeke S. P. Fairall C. W. Wolfe D. Bariteau L. Zuidema P. 19557 Book Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? presents the major climate phenomena within the climate system to underscore the potency of dynamics in giving rise to climate change and variability. These phenomena include deep convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and its planetary-scale organization: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the monsoons, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the low-frequency variability of extratropical circulations. The volume also has a chapter focusing on the discussion of the causes of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice and a chapter devoted to the discussion of the causes of recent changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. On each topic, the basic material of climate dynamics is covered to aid the understanding of the forefront research, making the volume accessible to a broad spectrum of readers. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 189 0 978-0-87590-480-1 Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? presents the major climate phenomena within the climate system to underscore the potency of dynamics in giving rise to climate change and variability. These phenomena include deep convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and its planetary-scale organization: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the monsoons, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the low-frequency variability of extratropical circulations. The volume also has a chapter focusing on the discussion of the causes of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice and a chapter devoted to the discussion of the causes of recent changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. On each topic, the basic material of climate dynamics is covered to aid the understanding of the forefront research, making the volume accessible to a broad spectrum of readers. Zuidema P. Zuidema P. 19558 Book_Section We examine processes that influence North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies including surface heat fluxes, upper ocean mixing, thermocline variability, ocean currents, and tropical-extratropical interactions via the atmosphere and ocean. The ocean integrates rapidly varying atmospheric heat flux and wind forcing, and thus a stochastic model of the climate system, where white noise forcing produces a red spectrum, appears to provide a baseline for SST variability even on decadal time scales. However, additional processes influence Pacific climate variability including the “reemergence mechanism,” where seasonal variability in mixed layer depth allows surface temperature anomalies to be stored at depth during summer and return to the surface in the following winter. Wind stress curl anomalies in the central/east Pacific drive thermocline variability that propagates to the west Pacific via baroclinic Rossby waves and influences SST by vertical mixing and the change in strength and position of the ocean gyres. Atmospheric changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also influence North Pacific SST anomalies via the “atmospheric bridge.” The dominant pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), exhibits variability on interannual as well as decadal time scales. Unlike ENSO, the PDO does not appear to be a mode of the climate system, but rather it results from several different mechanisms including (1) stochastic heat flux forcing associated with random fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, (2) the atmospheric bridge augmented by the reemergence mechanism, and (3) wind-driven changes in the North Pacific gyres. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Ser. Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 189 123-148 0 10.1029/2008GM000794 We examine processes that influence North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies including surface heat fluxes, upper ocean mixing, thermocline variability, ocean currents, and tropical-extratropical interactions via the atmosphere and ocean. The ocean integrates rapidly varying atmospheric heat flux and wind forcing, and thus a stochastic model of the climate system, where white noise forcing produces a red spectrum, appears to provide a baseline for SST variability even on decadal time scales. However, additional processes influence Pacific climate variability including the “reemergence mechanism,” where seasonal variability in mixed layer depth allows surface temperature anomalies to be stored at depth during summer and return to the surface in the following winter. Wind stress curl anomalies in the central/east Pacific drive thermocline variability that propagates to the west Pacific via baroclinic Rossby waves and influences SST by vertical mixing and the change in strength and position of the ocean gyres. Atmospheric changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also influence North Pacific SST anomalies via the “atmospheric bridge.” The dominant pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), exhibits variability on interannual as well as decadal time scales. Unlike ENSO, the PDO does not appear to be a mode of the climate system, but rather it results from several different mechanisms including (1) stochastic heat flux forcing associated with random fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, (2) the atmospheric bridge augmented by the reemergence mechanism, and (3) wind-driven changes in the North Pacific gyres. Alexander M. A. Alexander M. A. Alexander M. A. 19568 Book_Section This chapter reviews impacts on aircraft posed by a variety of atmospheric phenomena covering a large range of altitudes, scale sizes, and origins. Such weather hazards can be regional, long-duration fields of turbulence or, on the other hand, concentrated, short-duration microbursts. Accident statistics indicate the frequency and severities of encounters with various types of weather. A review of key weather features describes physical processes involved. Methods for prediction and warning discussed suggest hazard mitigation approaches and areas of need for further research. 2010-12 John Wiley & Sons 3353-3369 0 9780470686652 10.1002/9780470686652.eae320 This chapter reviews impacts on aircraft posed by a variety of atmospheric phenomena covering a large range of altitudes, scale sizes, and origins. Such weather hazards can be regional, long-duration fields of turbulence or, on the other hand, concentrated, short-duration microbursts. Accident statistics indicate the frequency and severities of encounters with various types of weather. A review of key weather features describes physical processes involved. Methods for prediction and warning discussed suggest hazard mitigation approaches and areas of need for further research. Bedard A. J. 19574 Book_Section N/A 2010-6 WMO - World Climate Research Program SPARC Report 109-147 0 N/A Butchart N. A. Charlton-Perez A. J. Cionni I. Hardiman S. C. Krueger K. Kushner P. Newman P. Osprey S. M. Perlwitz J. Sassi F. Sigmond M. Wang L. Wang L. Wang L. Wang L. 19576 Book_Section The temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined in seven state-of-the-art climate models in light of simple dynamical paradigms for ENSO. In general, the simulation of ENSO has improved in the present generation of climate models, with respect to previous generations, and the evolution of the upper ocean heat content is consistent with some of the leading dynamical paradigms. Unrealistic features of the model ENSO include the spatial structure of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations, as well as the time evolution of interannual variability. Standard deviations of interannual SST anomalies do not maximize close to the western coast of South America, as found in nature, and extend too far west along the equator. In most of the models included in this study, ENSO events occur more frequently and more regularly than they do in nature. The comparison of two climate models with different dominant ENSO time scales, one longer and closer to observations and the other much shorter than observed, shows that the spatial structure of the anomalous wind stress during ENSO events, in particular the meridional scale of the zonal wind stress anomalies, may play a key role in setting the ENSO time scale. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 189 105-122 0 978-0-87590-480-1 10.1029/2008GM000796 The temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined in seven state-of-the-art climate models in light of simple dynamical paradigms for ENSO. In general, the simulation of ENSO has improved in the present generation of climate models, with respect to previous generations, and the evolution of the upper ocean heat content is consistent with some of the leading dynamical paradigms. Unrealistic features of the model ENSO include the spatial structure of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations, as well as the time evolution of interannual variability. Standard deviations of interannual SST anomalies do not maximize close to the western coast of South America, as found in nature, and extend too far west along the equator. In most of the models included in this study, ENSO events occur more frequently and more regularly than they do in nature. The comparison of two climate models with different dominant ENSO time scales, one longer and closer to observations and the other much shorter than observed, shows that the spatial structure of the anomalous wind stress during ENSO events, in particular the meridional scale of the zonal wind stress anomalies, may play a key role in setting the ENSO time scale. Capotondi A. Capotondi A. Capotondi A. 19577 Book_Section The temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined in seven state-of-the-art climate models in light of simple dynamical paradigms for ENSO. In general, the simulation of ENSO has improved in the present generation of climate models, with respect to previous generations, and the evolution of the upper ocean heat content is consistent with some of the leading dynamical paradigms. Unrealistic features of the model ENSO include the spatial structure of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations, as well as the time evolution of interannual variability. Standard deviations of interannual SST anomalies do not maximize close to the western coast of South America, as found in nature, and extend too far west along the equator. In most of the models included in this study, ENSO events occur more frequently and more regularly than they do in nature. The comparison of two climate models with different dominant ENSO time scales, one longer and closer to observations and the other much shorter than observed, shows that the spatial structure of the anomalous wind stress during ENSO events, in particular the meridional scale of the zonal wind stress anomalies, may play a key role in setting the ENSO time scale. 2010-1 AGU Geophys.Monogr. Ser. 189 105-122 0 978-0-87590-480-1 10.1029/2008GM000796 The temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined in seven state-of-the-art climate models in light of simple dynamical paradigms for ENSO. In general, the simulation of ENSO has improved in the present generation of climate models, with respect to previous generations, and the evolution of the upper ocean heat content is consistent with some of the leading dynamical paradigms. Unrealistic features of the model ENSO include the spatial structure of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations, as well as the time evolution of interannual variability. Standard deviations of interannual SST anomalies do not maximize close to the western coast of South America, as found in nature, and extend too far west along the equator. In most of the models included in this study, ENSO events occur more frequently and more regularly than they do in nature. The comparison of two climate models with different dominant ENSO time scales, one longer and closer to observations and the other much shorter than observed, shows that the spatial structure of the anomalous wind stress during ENSO events, in particular the meridional scale of the zonal wind stress anomalies, may play a key role in setting the ENSO time scale. Capotondi A. Capotondi A. Capotondi A. 19582 Book_Section Dual-polarization radar is a critical tool for weather research applications, including rainfall estimation, and is at the verge of being a key instrument for operational meteorologists. This new radar system is being integrated into radar networks around the world, including the planned upgrade of the U.S. National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Doppler radars. Dual polarization offers several advantages compared to single-polarization radar systems, including additional information about the size, shape, and orientation of hydrometeors. This information can be used to more accurately retrieve characteristics of the drop size distribution, identify types of hydrometeors, correct for signal loss (attenuation) in heavy precipitation, and more easily identify spurious echo scatterers. In addition to traditional backscatter measurements, differential propagation phase characteristics allow for rainfall estimation that is immune to absolute calibration of the radar system, attenuation effects, as well as partial beam blocking. By combining different radar measurements, rainfall retrieval algorithms have developed that minimize the error characteristics of the different rainfall estimators, while at the same time taking advantage of the data quality enhancements. Although dual-polarization techniques have been applied to S band and C band radar systems for several decades, polarization diversity at higher frequencies including X band are now widely available to the radar community. This chapter provides an overview of dual-polarization rainfall estimation applications that are typically utilized at X, C, and S bands. The concept of distinguishing basic and applied science issues and their impact on rainfall estimation is introduced. Various dual-polarization radar rainfall techniques are discussed, emphasizing the strengths and weaknesses of various estimators at different frequencies. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Series 191 105-125 0 978-0-87590-481-8 10.1029/2010GM000930 Dual-polarization radar is a critical tool for weather research applications, including rainfall estimation, and is at the verge of being a key instrument for operational meteorologists. This new radar system is being integrated into radar networks around the world, including the planned upgrade of the U.S. National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Doppler radars. Dual polarization offers several advantages compared to single-polarization radar systems, including additional information about the size, shape, and orientation of hydrometeors. This information can be used to more accurately retrieve characteristics of the drop size distribution, identify types of hydrometeors, correct for signal loss (attenuation) in heavy precipitation, and more easily identify spurious echo scatterers. In addition to traditional backscatter measurements, differential propagation phase characteristics allow for rainfall estimation that is immune to absolute calibration of the radar system, attenuation effects, as well as partial beam blocking. By combining different radar measurements, rainfall retrieval algorithms have developed that minimize the error characteristics of the different rainfall estimators, while at the same time taking advantage of the data quality enhancements. Although dual-polarization techniques have been applied to S band and C band radar systems for several decades, polarization diversity at higher frequencies including X band are now widely available to the radar community. This chapter provides an overview of dual-polarization rainfall estimation applications that are typically utilized at X, C, and S bands. The concept of distinguishing basic and applied science issues and their impact on rainfall estimation is introduced. Various dual-polarization radar rainfall techniques are discussed, emphasizing the strengths and weaknesses of various estimators at different frequencies. Cifelli R. Chandrasekar V. Chandrasekar V. Chandrasekar V. 19633 Book_Section In this chapter, we review evidence that tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) belong to a general category of dynamical systems; specifically, tropical SSTs can be well approximated as a linear dynamical system maintained by stochastic forcing. This evidence is based on fundamental properties of stochastic systems, which we review here before considering the observed dynamical behavior of SSTs. The validity of the linear approximation is examined by means of statistical tests and is found to hold surprisingly well. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 189 65-77 0 978-0-87590-480-1 10.1029/2008GM000814 In this chapter, we review evidence that tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) belong to a general category of dynamical systems; specifically, tropical SSTs can be well approximated as a linear dynamical system maintained by stochastic forcing. This evidence is based on fundamental properties of stochastic systems, which we review here before considering the observed dynamical behavior of SSTs. The validity of the linear approximation is examined by means of statistical tests and is found to hold surprisingly well. Penland C. Penland C. Penland C. 19634 Book_Section In this chapter, we introduce El Niño and La Niña as deviations from the annual climate cycle in the tropical Pacific.We first orient the reader with a synopsis of the climatological average of global climate patterns of sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, surface winds, and precipitation in boreal and austral winters. Then the salient features of El Niño and La Niña are presented. Finally, we discuss evidence of how these features may have differed in the past from what is currently observed. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 189 53-64 0 978-0-87590-480-1 10.1029/2008GM000846 In this chapter, we introduce El Niño and La Niña as deviations from the annual climate cycle in the tropical Pacific.We first orient the reader with a synopsis of the climatological average of global climate patterns of sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, surface winds, and precipitation in boreal and austral winters. Then the salient features of El Niño and La Niña are presented. Finally, we discuss evidence of how these features may have differed in the past from what is currently observed. Penland C. Sun D.-Z. Capotondi A. Vimont D. J. Vimont D. J. Vimont D. J. 19655 Book_Section This chapter reviews recent advances in understanding the diabatic and nonlinear aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, it reviews the research leading to the view that averaged over the decadal or longer time scales, ENSO acts as a basin-scale heat mixer in the tropical Pacific. This heat mixer regulates the long-term temperature difference between the surface water in the warm pool and the subsurface water constituting the equatorial undercurrent. When this temperature difference is externally forced to increase, the level of ENSO activity increases. Conversely, when this temperature difference is externally forced to decrease, the level of ENSO activity decreases. The time-mean effect of ENSO is to counteract the effect of external forcing on this temperature difference. This view of ENSO explains the recent trend in the level of ENSO activity in the instrumental record and sheds light on the behavior of ENSO in the past climates. The implied response in the level of ENSO activity to global warming, however, is at odds with the popular prediction by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Reasons for this discrepancy are explored. An inadequate sensitivity of the tropical hydrological cycle to sea surface temperature changes in the present coupled models is hypothesized as a possible factor responsible for the discrepancy. 2010-1 AGU Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 189 79-103 0 978-0-87590-480-1 10.1029/2009GM000865 This chapter reviews recent advances in understanding the diabatic and nonlinear aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, it reviews the research leading to the view that averaged over the decadal or longer time scales, ENSO acts as a basin-scale heat mixer in the tropical Pacific. This heat mixer regulates the long-term temperature difference between the surface water in the warm pool and the subsurface water constituting the equatorial undercurrent. When this temperature difference is externally forced to increase, the level of ENSO activity increases. Conversely, when this temperature difference is externally forced to decrease, the level of ENSO activity decreases. The time-mean effect of ENSO is to counteract the effect of external forcing on this temperature difference. This view of ENSO explains the recent trend in the level of ENSO activity in the instrumental record and sheds light on the behavior of ENSO in the past climates. The implied response in the level of ENSO activity to global warming, however, is at odds with the popular prediction by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Reasons for this discrepancy are explored. An inadequate sensitivity of the tropical hydrological cycle to sea surface temperature changes in the present coupled models is hypothesized as a possible factor responsible for the discrepancy. Sun D.-Z. Sun D.-Z. Sun D.-Z. 19636 Report N/A 2010-1 US Fish & Wildlife Service and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories 0 N/A Ray A. J. Barsugli J. J. Wolter K. Eischeid J. K.