Blackmon, M. L., 1990: Monte Carlo simulation of the atmospheric response to global sea surface temperature anomalies during two recent ENSO episodes. In Air-Sea Interaction in Tropical Western Pacific, J. Chao and J. A. Young (Eds.), China Ocean Press, 365-381.
The atmospheric response to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during two periods, September 1981-August 1983, and September 1985-August 1987 was investigated by means of the NCAR Community Climate Model CCM-1. The climate simulation experiments and the forecast experiments are described. The climate simulations are represented on charts showing the sea surface temperature, the precipitation anomaly and the 200-kPa height anomaly in the model response in the course of the two experiments. In the case of the forecast experiment, ensemble averages are presented from two sets of forecasts: one with climatological SST distributions, and the other with the observed SST distributions. From the forecast study, it is concluded that the observed SST distributions modify the ensemble averages of the forecasts by adding a growing fraction of the climatological response to the forecast state. In the Tropics, significant responses can be seen in the first 30 days. In mid-latitudes, the response in the 30-day forecasts is not negligible, but it is small. On the other hand, the response to the SSTs in the 90-day forecasts is very important.