Global river responses to rising CO2: Separating the effects of physiological and radiative changes on streamflow and flooding
Megan Fowler
CIRES and ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory
Thursday, Nov 21, 2019, 11:00 am
DSRC Room 1D403
Abstract
River flow statistics are expected to change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2, but uncertainty in Earth System Models (ESM) projections is high. While this is partly driven by changing precipitation, with well-known ESM uncertainties, here we show the influence of plant stomatal conductance feedbacks can cause equally large changes in regional flood extremes and even act as the main control on future low latitude streamflow. Over most tropical land masses, modern climate predictions suggest plant-physiological effects will boost streamflow, overwhelming opposing effects of soil drying driven by CO2’s effects on atmospheric radiation, warming and rainfall redistribution. The relatively unknown uncertainties in representing eco-physiological processes must therefore be better constrained in land-surface models. To this end, we identify a distinct plant-physiological fingerprint on annual peak, low, and mean discharge throughout the tropics and identify river basins where physiological responses dominate radiative responses to rising CO2 in modern climate projections.
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Seminar Contact: Tom.Statz@noaa.gov