Publications
Eischeid, L., M. Hoerling, XW Quan, H. Diaz, 2022: Diagnosing Hawaii's Recent Drought J. Climate , DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0754.1 [link] [PDF]

Hoell, A. and Coauthors, 2021: Record Low North American Monsoon Rainfall in 2020 Reignites Drought over the American Southwest Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0129.1 [link]

Hoerling, M., L. Smith, XW Quan, J. Eischeid, J. Barsugli, H. Diaz, 2021: Explaining the Spatial Pattern of U.S. Extreme Daily Precipitation Change J. Climate , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0666.1 [link] [Highlight]

Staten, P. and Coauthors, 2020: Tropical Widening: From Global Variations to Regional Impacts Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0047.1 [link]

Murray, D. and Coauthors, 2020: Facility for Weather and Climate Assessments (FACTS) - A Community Resource for Assessing Weather and Climate Variability Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0224.1 [link] [FACTS]

Hoerling, M., J. Barsugli, B. Livneh, J. Eischeid, XW Quan, and A. Badger, 2019: Causes for the Century-Long Decline in Colorado River Flow J. Climate , DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0207.1 [link]

Stone, D. and Coauthors, 2019: Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project Weather and Climate Extremes, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206 [link]

Hoell, A., J. Perlwitz, C. Dewes, K. Wolter, I. Rangwala, XW Quan, and J. Eischeid, 2018: Anthropogenic Contributions to the Intensity of the 2017 United States Northern Great Plains Drought Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0127.1 [link]

Grise, K. and Coauthors, 2018: Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response? J. of Climate , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1 [link]

Quan, XW, M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, and H. Diaz, 2018: On the Time of Emergence of Tropical Width Change J. Climate , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0068.1 [link] [Highlight]

Hartten, L.M., C.J. Cox, P.E. Johnston, D.E. Wolfe, S. Abbott, H.A. McColl, XW Quan, and M.G. Winterkorn, 2018: Ship- and island-based soundings from the 2016 El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR) field campaign Earth System Science Data , 10 , 1165-1183, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1165-2018, [link]

Dole, RM, and Coauthors 2017: Advancing Science and Services during the 2015-16 El Nino: The NOAA El Nino Rapid Response Field Campaign Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0219.1 [link]

Quan, XW, MP Hoerling, L Smith, J Perlwitz, T Zhang, A Hoell, K Wolter, and J Eischeid, 2017: Extreme California Rains During Winter 2015/16: A Change in El Nino Teleconnection? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 98 (12), S51-S53, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0118.1 [link]

Zhang, T, MP Hoerling, K Wolter, J Eischeid, L Cheng, A Hoell, J Perlwitz, XW Quan, J Barsugli, 2017: Predictability and Prediction of Southern California Rains during Strong El Nino Events: A Focus on the Failed 2016 Winter Rains J. Climate , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0396.1 [link]

Frederiksen, CS, XW Quan, X Zheng, and S Grainger, 2017: Estimating modes of inter-decadal variability and predictability in coupled climate models ANZIAM J. , 58 (CTAC2016), C82-C92. [link]

Hoell, A, M Hoerling; J Eischeid, XW Quan, B Liebmann, 2016: Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying J. Climate , DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0558.1, [link]

Liebmann, B, I Blade, C Funk, D Allured, XW Quan, M Hoerling, A Hoell, P, Peterson, and W Thiaw, 2016: Climatology and Interannual Variability of the Eastern Horn of Africa Boreal Spring Wet Season Precipitation and Implications for its Recent Decline J. Climate , DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0452.1, [link]

Wang, J, ZW Yan, XW Quan, and JM Feng, 2016: Urban warming in the 2013 summer heat wave in eastern China Clim. Dyn. , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3248-7, [link]

Ying, K, X Zheng, T Zhao, CF Frederiksen, and XW Quan, 2016: Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China Clim. Dyn. , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3258-5, [link]

Ying, K, T Zhao, X Zheng, XW Quan, CF Frederiksen, and M Li, 2016: Predictable signals in seasonal mean soil moisture simulated with observation-based atmospheric forcing over China. Clim. Dyn. , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2969-3, [link]

Hoerling, MP, J Eischeid, J Perlwitz, XW Quan, K Wolter, and L Cheng, 2015: Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation. J. Climate , 28, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0441.1 [link]

Wolter, K., M. Hoerling, J. K. Eischeid, G. J. van Oldenborgh, X.-W. Quan, J. E. Walsh, T. N. Chase, and R. M. Dole, 2015: How Unusual was the Cold Winter of 2013/14 in the Upper Midwest? [in "Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 96 (12) , S10-S14. [link]

Cheng, L., MP Hoerling, A AghaKouchak, B Livneh, XW Quan, and J Eischeid, 2015: How Has Human-induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk? J. Climate, 28, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1 [link]

Hoerling, MP, K Wolter, J Perlwitz, XW Quan, JK Eischeid, HL Wang, S Schubert, H Diaz, and R Dole 2014: Northeast Colorado Extreme Rains Interpreted in a Climate Change Context. Bull. Amer. Meteorl. Soc. , 95(9), S15-S18. [link]

Ying, K, T Zhao, XW Quan, X Zheng, and CS Frederiksen, 2014: Interannual variability of autumn to spring seasonal precipitation in eastern China. Clim. Dyn. , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2411-2 [link]

Liebmann, B, MP Hoerling, C Funk, I Blade, RM Dole, D Allured, XW Quan, P Pegion, and JK Eischeid, 2014: Understanding Recent Eastern Horn of Africa Rainfall Variability and Change. J. Climate , [link]

Gao, LH, ZW Yan, XW Quan, 2014: Observed and SST-forced Multidecadal Variability in Global Land Surface Air Temperature. Clim. Dyn. , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2121-9 [link]

Quan, X.W., M.P. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, H.F. Diaz, and T. Xu, 2014: How fast are the tropics expanding? J. Climate , 27 , 1999-2013. [link] [Highlighted in Nature Geoscience]

Han, W., G.A. Meehl, A. Hu, M.A. Alexander, T .Yamagata, D. Yuan, M. Ishii, P. Pegion, J. Zheng, B. D. Hamlington, X.W. Quan, and R. R. Leben, 2013: Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades. Clim. Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1951-1. [link]

Dole, R., M. Hoerling, A. Kumar, J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X.W. Quan, G. Kiladis, R. Webb, D. Murray, M. Chen, K. Wolter, and T. Zhang, 2013: The Making of An Extreme Event: Putting the Pieces Together. Bull. Amer. Meteorl. Soc. , 95 , 427-440. [link]

Ying, K., X. Zheng, X.W. Quan, C.S. Frederiksen 2013: Predictable Signals of Seasonal Precipitation in the Yangtze-Huihe River Valley Int. J. Climatol. , 33 , 3002-3015. [link]

Hoerling,M.P., J.K. Eischeid, X.W. Quan, H.F. Diaz, R.S. Webb, R.M. Dole, D. Easterling 2012: Is a Transition to Semi-Permanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the U.S. Great Plains? J. Climate , 25 , 8380-8325. [link]

Hoerling, M., A. Kumar, R. Dole, J.W. Nielsen-Gammon, J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X.W. Quan, T. Zhang, P. Pegion, M. Chen 2012: Anatomy of an Extreme Event J. Climate , 26 , 2811-2832. [link]

Quan, X.W., MP Hoerling, B Lyon, A Kumar, MA Bell, MK Tippett and H Wang, 2012: Prospects for Dynamical Prediction of Meteorological Drought J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. , 51 (7) 1238-1252. [link]

Lyon, B, MA Bell, MK Tippett, A Kumar, MP Hoerling, XW Quan and H Wang, 2012: Baseline Probabilities for the Seasonal Prediction of Meteorological Drought J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. , 51 (7) 1222-1237. [link]

Hoerling, Martin, Jon Eischeid, Judith Perlwitz, Xiaowei Quan, Tao Zhang, Philip Pegion, 2012: On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought. J. Climate , 25 , 2146-2161. [link]

Dole, R, M Hoerling, J Perlwitz, J Eischeid, P Pegion, T Zhang, XW Quan, TY Xu and D Murray 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett. , 38 , L06702, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046582 [link]

Hoerling, M, J Hurrell, A Kumar, L Terray, J Eischeid, P Pegion, T Zhang, XW Quan and TY Xu 2011: On North American Decadal Climate for 2011-20 J. Clim. , 24 (16) 4519-4528. [link]

Han, WQ, GA Meehl, B Rajagopalan, JT Fasullo, AX Hu, JL Lin, WG Large, JW Wang, XW Quan, LL Trenary, A Wallcraft, T Shinoda and S Yeager 2010: Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate Nat. Geosci. , 3 (8) 546-550. [link]

Kumar, A, J Perlwitz, J Eischeid, XW Quan, TY Xu, T Zhang, M Hoerling, B Jha and WQ Wang 2010: Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification Geophys. Res. Lett. , 37 , L21701, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045022. [link]

Hoerling, M., X.W. Quan, and J. Eischeid, 2009: Distinct Causes for Two Principal U.S. Droughts of the 20th Century Geophys. Res. Lett., 36 , L19708, doi:10.1029/2009GL039860 [link]

Li, S., J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, and M. Hoerling, 2008: Modelling the influence of North Atlantic multidecadal warmth on the Indian summer rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 35 , L05804, doi:10.1029/2007GL032901 [link]

Martin Hoerling, Jon Eischeid, Xiaowei Quan, and Taiyi Xu, 2007: Explaining the record US warmth of 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 , L17704, doi:10.1029/2007GL030643 [link]

Quan, X., M. Hoerling, J. Whitaker, G. Bates, T. Xu, 2006: Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill. J. Climate, 19, 3279-3293 [PDF] [link]

Quan, X.W., H.F. Diaz, and M.P. Hoerling, 2004: Change of the Hadley circulation since 1950. In: Diaz H.F., Bradley R.S. (eds) The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 21. Springer, Dordrecht [PDF] [link]

Quan, X.W., P.J. Webster, A.M. Moore, and H.-R. Chang, 2004: Seasonality in SST forced atmospheric short-term climate predictability. J. Climate, 17, 3090-3180 [PDF] [link]

Quan, X.W., H.F. Diaz, and C.-B. Fu, 2003: Interdecadal change in the Asia-Africa summer monsoon and its associated changes in global atmospheric circulation. Global and Planetary Change, 37 , 171-188 [PDF] [link]

Quan, X.W. J.S. Whitaker, M.P. Hoerling, and G.T. Bates, 2001: A new experimental seasonal prediction tool. Proc. of the 26th NOAA Climate Diagnostic Workshop.

Quan, X.W., T. Smith, S.D. Woodruff, S.J. Lubcker, R. Reynolds, 2001: Improvement of trimming in COADS. Workshop on Advances in the Use of Historical Marine Climate Data. Boulder, Coloardo, January 29 - February 1, 2002.

Quan, X.W., H.F. Diaz, S.D. Woodruff, S. Lubker, J.K. Eischeid, 1999: Comparison of ship-observed sea surface temperature with measurements from drifting buoys and expendable bathythermographs: 1980-1995. Climar 99, WMO Workshop on Advances in Marine Climatology. September 8-15, 1999, 319-323 [link]

Diaz, H.F., X.W. Quan, J.K. Eischeid, S.D. Woodruff, S.J. Lubker, T.P. Barnett, 1999: Comparison of decadal trends in surface temperature in different data sets. Climar 99, WMO Workshop on Advances in Marine Climatology. September 8-15, 1999, 240-244 [link]

Quan, X.W., 1998: Interannual variability associated with ENSO: seasonal dependence and interdecadal change , Ph.D Thesis

Quan, X.W., P.J. Webster, 1997: Interdecadal oscillation as detected from long-term precipitation records. Proc. of the 7th Conference on Climate Variations, Long Beach, California, Feb. 2-7, 1997, AMS

Quan, X.W., H.F. Diaz, and J.O. Fletcher, 1996: Interdecadal oscillation in the Pacific Ocean: a study based on COADS. Proc. of the 21st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Huntsville, Alabama, Oct. 28 - Nov. 1, 1996, NOAA