PSL generates experimental forecasts on time-scales of weeks to seasons as part of its research mission.
The forecasts and associated information such as verifications are available on the following webpages. It
is planned that these forecasts will eventually be transitioned to operational mode.
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Model-Analogs (MA) and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts for Months 1-24
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Experimental forecasts of numerous tropical fields, including precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea surface height (SSH).
Current Month 6 MA precipitation forecast and Niño3.4 Months 1-24 forecast from all models.
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Arctic sea-ice experimental forecast
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Experimental, sea ice forecasts produced from a fully coupled ~9km ice(CICE5)-ocean(POP2)-land(CLM4.5)-atmosphere(WRF3.5) model called RASM-ESRL. The model is initialized with the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, CRYOSAT2 sea ice thickness, and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentrations. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries by 3-hourly GFS forecasts of winds, temperature, and water vapor.
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Linear Inverse Modeling Medium Range (2-6 weeks) Forecasts
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A empirical dynamical technique, coupled linear inverse modeling (C-LIM), is used to
calculate empirical medium-range forecasts of tropical convection, wind, and SST pentads.
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Global Tropical SST forecasts
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A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to
calculate forecasts regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs ("ENSO"), the
tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTs, and the tropical Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic. LIM SST
Forecasts are for 3 months to 12 months from the current date. Forecasts
are presented as maps of global tropical SST forecasts and timeseries
plots that include forecast history and verification.
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