Physical Sciences Laboratory
Physical Sciences LaboratoryNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
The graphics below are designed to forecast the presence and strength of Atmospheric Rivers using data from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) models. The GFS products are produced at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). The GEFS products are produced by Dr. Jason Cordeira at Plymouth State University as a cooperative effort with CW3E. More information on these products and other AR forecasting tools can be found on the CW3E page.
Click an image to see forecasts out to 180 hours from the GFS and NAM
Courtesy Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State University.
Hover mouse cursor over an image type or click to open in new tab.
The above images display the magnitude, probability, and timing of AR conditions along the U.S. West Coast and inland from the GEFS model. Hover mouse over an image name to see the graphic, or click to get more information on the plot. To see how each forecast type has changed over the previous seven days click on the dProp/dT under the image title. These plots are created by Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State Univeristy.
Courtesy Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State University
Hover mouse cursor over a forecast lead time to see both images or click to open.
The above images display the 30 members of the GFS Ensemble; each thumbnail shows IVT (kg m-1 s-1) magnitude shaded according to scale and IVT vectors.
The above images display the probability of IVT exceeding 250 kg m-1 s-1 based on the 30 members of the GFS ensemble and the IVT vectors from the control forecast.
