The Ever-Present and Growing Threat of Flash Drought in an Accelerating Hydroclimate

Not all droughts are the same. In some cases, drought rapidly intensifies at subseasonal to seasonal scales with significant impacts to agriculture and water resources along with the increased propensity for heatwaves and wildfires. Like all droughts, flash drought begins with a precipitation deficit. However, both evaporative demand and soil moisture are critical flash drought variables, and identifying and monitoring the desiccation of the terrestrial surface is key for determining flash drought development and associated impacts. While recent advances in knowledge and monitoring of flash drought have occurred, fundamental questions remain in the state of the science. What are the overall mechanistic relationships between atmospheric demand, evaporative stress, terrestrial desiccation, and precipitation that drive the progression of flash drought? Do regional characteristics of the environment impact the evolution of flash drought? What are the scales of predictability for flash drought? Finally, how will flash drought frequency and intensity evolve in a changing climate system?

Dr. Jeffrey Basara is a Professor and serves as Chair of the Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. He is deeply passionate about teaching and mentorship with the goal to provide outstanding instruction and meaningful educational experiences that empower students to become future leaders and difference makers in the environmental sciences. Dr. Basara’s research is focused on the complex, integrated processes across weather, climate, water, and ecosystems with specific attention directed toward precipitation extremes and associated impacts. This includes droughts, flash droughts, flash floods, and pluvial periods, along with the evolution of the planetary boundary layer, surface-atmosphere exchange, urban-atmosphere interactions, and severe and extreme weather such as heat waves, cold air outbreaks, and cascading events. He is a Kavli Fellow of the United States National Academy of Sciences and has received multiple research awards including the Research, Education, and Economics (REE) Under Secretary’s Award in 2019 from the USDA.