NWS Climate Prediction Center Operational Drought Services

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) housed within the NWS at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has long been a leader and contributor to operational drought services in both the monitoring and prediction space. This presentation will review current operational drought monitoring products and data CPC utilizes and contributes as part of its mission. The background and forecast data, tools and guidance that inform the operational production of the CPC official Rapid Onset Drought (ROD; “flash drought”), monthly and seasonal drought outlooks will then be provided. Verification results from these three outlooks will also be illustrated. The drought outlook products at CPC have already played a significant role in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS) – a growing and critical initiative within the NWS mission and ongoing reorganization. Lastly, challenges and ongoing developmental efforts at CPC will be listed to help inform applied research in the drought arena from the greater drought service enterprise.

Jon Gottschalck works at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within NOAA’s National Weather Service. He is Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at CPC and is responsible for preparing and disseminating CPC operational S2S outlooks and prioritizing product development efforts. Prior to his current position, he served as the CPC Head of Forecast Operations and the MJO operational team lead. Mr. Gottschalck led the planning, development and implementation of the CPC Weeks 3-4 T/P outlooks beginning in 2015. He earned his B.S. and M.S. degrees in meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University in 1994 and 1996. Prior to CPC, Mr. Gottschalck worked at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) at the University of Miami from 1997-2001 and at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center from 2001-2004.