Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Ocean

Michael Maier-Gerber

Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Thursday, Apr 26, 2018, 11:00 am
DSRC Room 1D403


Abstract

Michael will present his PhD project, which investigates the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity from 5 days up to several weeks. This time frame is beyond the lead times generally considered by operational centers for individual storms and considerably shorter than the many seasonal predictions of cyclone activity. On this timescale, equatorial waves, AEWs and the MJO are considered as the major predictors. Of particular interest is the North Atlantic, where anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking also significantly modifies TC activity on this timescale. The novelty of this project is the combination of multi-model (TIGGE, S2S data base) ensemble forecasts and statistical-dynamical methods and the focus on probability forecasts of integrated “cyclone-activity metrics”, as in seasonal prediction, rather than on individual storms.

(NOTE: This is a joint seminar with Andreas Schlüter)

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Seminar Contact: Shannon.Kelly@noaa.gov