Clouds, Surface Energy Fluxes, and the Evolution of Arctic Sea Ice

Matthew Shupe

NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory - CU Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research In Environmental Sciences

Tuesday, Apr 07, 2026, 2:00 pm MT
DSRC Room GC402

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Abstract

Atmosphere-surface energy exchange shapes the Arctic system and drives rapid change. Declining sea ice has dramatic implications for atmospheric circulation, resource development, northern communities, national security, and much more. During the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in 2019-2020, the Physical Sciences Laboratory measured the surface energy budget over sea ice in unprecedented detail. We use these observations to explore the annual variation in surface energy transfer, and the key interactions among terms, particularly in relation to atmospheric variability due to clouds. In winter, the sea ice comprises a balance of radiative, turbulent, and conductive fluxes, with cloud-free periods driving sea ice growth. In summer, some energy transfer terms diminish in importance, leaving a balance between radiation and sea ice melt, which occurs primarily under frequent cloudy skies. We demonstrate a remarkable closure between the sea ice energy budget and its mass evolution. Additionally, we build observation-based process relationships as a strong framework for evaluating model representations of surface energy variability, revealing many deficiencies. Collectively these studies have advanced our process understanding of the Arctic sea ice system, while contributing to improved assessment of sea ice forecasts and Arctic-system predictions.

Bio: Dr. Matthew Shupe is a research scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Since the late 1990s his research focus has been largely on Arctic cloud and atmospheric processes and their interactions with radiation and the surface energy budget. Observational field work has been a major element of this research, including work at numerous Arctic field stations, atop the Greenland Ice Sheet, in mountain environments, and aboard icebreakers in the Arctic sea ice. The observational efforts have been combined with numerous modeling perspectives to enhance process understanding and assess model representations. Matthew is a member of the U.S. Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee, and is currently serving as a Mercator Fellow for a German research consortium on Arctic Amplification. He is a co-coordinator of the MOSAiC expedition, a yearlong international observational and modeling initiative in the central Arctic ice pack that focused on coupled processes among the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, and ecosystem.