NOAA PSL GEFS Reforecast Version 2
These NOAA PSL GEFS Reforecast Version 2 webpages will no longer be available after November 30, 2020. See the note below on access to the new version.
Note: As of 23 September 2020, the Global Ensemble Forecast System has been upgraded to a much improved version 12, and this page for the older model version is now obsolete. We have also, regrettably, discontinued production of many value-added experimental forecast products, including post-processed probabilistic forecast guidance, Extreme Forecast Indices, and GEFS-based teleconnection indices, due to lack of funding.
A near-realtime (4-day archive) of new GEFSv12 forecasts can be obtained from the NCEP NOMADS site: https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/, using the links for the GFS Ensemble 0.25 Degree data set. A historical archive of older GEFSv12 forecast data may be accessed from the NCEI NOMADS site: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs. For questions, please contact email@example.com.
GEFSv12 reforecasts spanning 2000-2019 are available via Amazon Web Services for free download, at https://noaa-gefs-retrospective.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html. One can set up scripts to loop over days and member and download sequences of global fields. If you have questions or comments about the reforecast data set or the associated products, please contact: firstname.lastname@example.org.
The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory 2nd-generation Reforecast Project has produced a dataset of historical weather forecasts generated with a fixed numerical model, using the 2012 version of NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS, Version 10). This Reforecast V2 dataset consists of an 11-member ensemble of forecasts, produced every day from 00 UTC initial conditions from Dec 1984 to present. The horizontal resolution of GEFS is T254 (about 50 km) out to 8 days, and T190 (about 70 km) from 8-16 days. Real-time forecasts are ongoing.
Among the advantages associated with this long reforecast dataset is that model forecast errors can be diagnosed from the past forecasts and corrected, thereby dramatically increasing the forecast skill. Past results have shown that the improvements may be particularly large for medium-range forecasts and for forecasts of relatively uncommon events such as heavy precipitation.
If you have questions or comments about this dataset or the associated products, please contact: email@example.com
Forecast Products Based on PSL GEFS Reforecast Version2 Data
- Precipitation Forecasts, Based on Analog Methodology
- High Resolution Precipitation Forecasts, Based on Analog Methodology
- High Resolution Precipitation Forecasts, Based on CSGD Parametric Methodology
- California Medium-Range High Resolution Precipitation Forecasts, Based on CSGD Parametric Methodology
- Probabilistic Temperature and Height Forecasts, 2-3 to 8-14 Day Lead
- Daily Forecasts of PNA, NAO, EPO and WPO Teleconnection Indices
- Ensemble Forecast Spread at a Specified Geographic Location
- Daily Weather Forecast Maps, to 15 Day Lead