Lesley L. Smith – Arctic Warming
All plots here preliminary.
Regarding Arctic warming
New!
from 2018
from 2017
ESRL-CAM5 preliminary results:
where anomalies computed wrt 1980-1989 factual run
ECHAM5 results:
Re. Figure 1:
Re. Figure 4:
with respect to amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 means
Re. Figure 6:
Anomalies with respect to amip_obs_rf climatology:
Annual T2m 65-90N CESM1 LENS where anomalies computed wrt 1980-1989:
Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) Data:
with 1980-1989 climatology:
with 1979-1989 climatology:
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These are all anomalies:
ECHAM5
F2000 data divided into 5 pieces:
CAM
CESM1
Re. Figure 1:
Weighted area average of T2m 65-90N: Reanalysis average: 3.135974 deg C
Weighted area average of T2m 65-90N: ECHAM5 average: 2.363974 deg C
Re. Figure 4:
with respect to amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 means
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These are 'anomalies', i.e. differences of the full fields:
Re. NEW Figure 5: a.) factual minus counterfactual b.) factual minus clim_polar
c.) (factual minus counterfactual) minus (factual minus clim_polar)
Re. Figure 5: a.) factual minus counterfactual b.) factual minus clim_polar c.) 1m ice minus 2m ice
where the weighted area average of above differences are: a.)2.463562 deg C;
b.) 1.346158 deg C; c.) 0.710208 deg C
These are anomaly differences:
Re. Figure 5: a.) factual minus counterfactual b.) factual minus clim_polar c.) clim_polar minus counterfactual d.) 1m ice minus 2m ice
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These are all anomalies:
Re. Figure 6:
Anomalies with respect to amip_obs_rf climatology:
Anomalies with respect to respective climatologies:
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These are all anomalies:
Re. Figure S2:
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Vertical structure
Up to 100mb
where no climatologies subtracted for above 2 plots.
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where for the 1m_ice case, the amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 climatology was removed.
For comparison, ERA-Interim
Higher than 100mb
where no climatologies subtracted for above 2 plots.
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where for the 1m_ice case, the amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 climatology was removed.
For comparison, ERA-Interim
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Comparing different experiments
where above plots created using all 30 ensemble members.
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Polar anomaly maps (for single experiments)
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For Reference, Reanalyses polar anomaly maps
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Time series
Anomalies (1980-1989 climatologies removed)
Mean of standard deviations among above obs_rf runs=0.277927 oC
Standard Deviation of ensemble average obs_rf above=0.599255 oC
2016 maps corresponding to top 3 obs_rf ensemble members above
pdfs of above 2016 anomalies
Time series anomaly differences
Time series differences
Time series ECHAM5 compared with avg Reanalysis
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For reference, Reanalyses anomalies
