Lesley L. Smith – Re. Wildland Fire Potential

All plots preliminary.        

Re. Vapor Pressure Deficit computed using ERA5 data

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021

Conditioning via simultaneous climate indices El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by El Nino
Jan, Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, Dec VPDs are generally lesser in the southern U.S. for El_Nino
       
       
       

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by La Nina
Jan, Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, Dec VPDs are generally greater in the southern U.S. for La_Nina
       
       
       

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Re. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase1

Phase 1 seems to decrease VPD along the California coast in Jan, Feb, May, Oct, Nov. Summer seems less affected.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase2

Phase 2 seems to decrease VPD along the California coast in Jan, Feb, May, Oct, Nov.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase3

The Phase 3 results seem to show decreased VPD in southern CONUS Jan,Feb,Mar,May,Jul(?),Aug,Dec.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase4

The Phase 4 results seem to show decreased VPD in southern CONUS decreases in Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov.
There does seem to be a winter/spring regime change in going from Phase 3 to Phase 4.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase5

For Phase 5 VPD seems to decrease in southwestern CONUS for May, Jul, Sep, Oct, Dec.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase6

For Phase 6 VPD may decrease in southwestern CONUS for SON and Aug, Sep.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase7

For Phase 7 VPD may decrease in southwestern CONUS for Apr, Jul, Aug, Dec.

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase8

For Phase 8 VPD may decrease for southwestern CONUS for Apr, Dec.

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Conditioning via simultaneous climate indices Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

Note: a positive QBO corresponds to Westerly winds and a negative QBO corresponds to Easterly winds

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by pos_QBO

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by neg_QBO

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Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase1 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase2 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase3 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase4 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase5 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase6 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase7 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase8 and El_Nino

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase1 and La_Nina

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase2

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase3 and La_Nina

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase4 and La_Nina

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase5 and La_Nina

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase6 and La_Nina

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase7 and La_Nina

Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase8 and La_Nina