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Re. Texas Precipitation

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ENSO

Regressions of ONI and CESM1 global precipitation:

where ONI's calculated wrt 31-year reference periods, respectively,
and where no de-trending.

Precip in very strong El Nino years from FACTS

A definition of El Nino: the Oceanic Nino Index, utilizing anomalies of SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S 170W-120W):

Data utilized above was the "Hurrell" SSTs, notice the period of reference.

The same calculation on CESM1 40 runs:

Every CESM1 run gives different results.
Trying to get a handle on variability:

Different time ranges:
With Base period 1920-2080:


With Base period 2050-2080:

The same 1920-2014 ONI calculation on CAM5 10 runs:

Every CAM5 run gives the same result (all lines coincident).

ENSO and May US precip:

Observations and Models

For CESM1 the means and standard deviations are: 4.655273 in and 1.199363 in for El Ninos, 4.273263 in and 1.1018 in for Neutrals, 4.041853 in and 1.038191 in for La Ninas.
The max and min are: min=1.53748 in max=9.63401 in, min=1.24023 in max=8.46736 in, min=1.03157 in max=8.58532 in, respectively.

Comparing different CESM1 runs for 1920-2015:

For CESM1 runs 1-10 the means and standard deviations are: 4.62721 in and 1.151578 in for El Ninos, 4.364577 in and 1.148946 in for Neutrals, 3.996629 in and 1.012313 in for La Ninas.
The maxs and mins are: min=1.53748 in max=7.77661 in, min=1.70634 in max=8.46736 in, min=1.37853 in max=8.58532 in, respectively.

For CESM1 runs 11-20 the means and standard deviations are: 4.768584 in and 1.272787 in for El Ninos, 4.201089 in and 1.09877 in for Neutrals, 4.079368 in and 1.07085 in for La Ninas.
The maxs and mins are: min=1.76327 max=8.46311 in, min=1.24023 max=8.3661 in min=1.51557 max=7.93676 in, respectively.

For CESM1 runs 21-30 the means and standard deviations are: 4.589425 in and 1.22554 in for El Ninos, 4.223316 in and 1.038335 in for Neutrals, 4.026977 in and 1.022984 in for La Ninas.
The maxs and mins are: min=1.86631 max=9.63401in, min=1.83027 max=8.31939in, min=1.03157 max=6.7795 in, respectively.

For CESM1 runs 31-40 the means and standard deviations are: 4.634059 in and 1.143217 in for El Ninos, 4.305184 in and 1.114926 in for Neutrals, 4.06269 in and 1.048901 in for La Ninas.
The maxs and mins are: min=2.07537 max=8.94727in, min=1.69307 max=8.16841 in, min=1.78389 max=7.20218 in, respectively.

ENSO in Different time periods:

For 1920-1950 CESM1 the means and standard deviations are: 4.668768 in and 1.199363 in for El Ninos, 4.333416 in and 1.1018 in for Neutrals, 4.090058 in and 1.057264 in for La Ninas.

For 1985-2015 CESM1 the means and standard deviations are: 4.617886 in and 1.183218 in for El Ninos, 4.146816 in and 1.081815 in for Neutrals, 3.976474 in and 1.075797 in for La Ninas.

For 2050-2080 CESM1 the means and standard deviations are: 4.831927 in and 1.248845 in for El Ninos, 4.624107 in and 1.161425 in for Neutrals, 4.345478 in and 1.106917 in for La Ninas.

May TX OK CESM1 (1920-2015) sorted precip data

Maximas [inches]:

run1 5.569 5.593 5.612 5.649 5.693 5.752 5.825 6.028 6.290 7.032
run2 6.036 6.200 6.299 6.529 6.529 6.866 7.069 7.500 7.569 8.585
run3 5.616 5.759 5.792 5.850 5.903 6.189 6.569 6.782 6.801 6.810
run4 5.851 5.858 6.158 6.255 6.270 6.280 6.343 7.054 7.142 7.875
run5 6.299 6.393 6.656 6.742 6.743 6.905 7.123 7.167 7.423 7.777
run6 5.969 5.986 6.121 6.224 6.229 6.685 6.755 7.030 7.377 7.497
run7 5.623 5.633 5.826 5.855 5.861 5.964 6.339 6.758 6.800 7.007
run8 5.979 6.017 6.033 6.057 6.170 6.200 6.559 6.723 6.777 7.050
run9 5.473 5.598 5.746 5.875 5.882 6.021 6.152 6.324 6.656 6.961
run10 5.971 5.972 6.164 6.191 6.424 6.623 7.205 7.527 7.651 8.467
run11 5.814 5.905 5.973 6.791 6.842 7.255 7.330 7.778 7.937 8.392
run12 5.913 5.993 6.080 6.196 6.212 6.268 6.389 6.616 7.670 8.092
run13 6.000 6.025 6.034 6.046 6.140 6.163 6.285 6.372 6.662 8.463
run14 5.937 5.939 6.086 6.097 6.200 6.292 6.416 6.584 6.597 7.769
run15 5.693 5.699 5.746 5.906 5.942 6.382 6.505 6.629 6.858 7.447
run16 5.924 6.017 6.320 6.339 6.644 6.799 7.219 7.506 7.793 8.366
run17 5.736 5.752 5.898 6.047 6.294 6.308 6.333 6.366 7.543 7.860
run18 6.052 6.070 6.181 6.186 6.206 6.725 6.727 7.094 7.280 7.393
run19 6.123 6.150 6.208 6.383 6.449 6.456 6.653 6.703 7.427 7.821
run20 5.823 5.979 6.082 6.121 6.361 6.412 6.567 6.612 6.784 7.064
run21 5.602 5.682 5.805 6.230 6.285 6.313 6.707 6.779 6.885 7.451
run22 5.718 5.722 5.731 5.770 5.811 5.839 5.921 6.525 8.023 8.797
run23 5.925 5.964 6.076 6.234 6.389 6.476 6.785 6.921 7.374 7.703
run24 5.458 5.538 5.633 5.654 5.854 6.079 6.517 6.555 6.575 7.336
run25 5.735 5.741 5.745 5.830 5.974 5.996 6.092 6.449 6.748 8.319
run26 5.896 6.058 6.382 6.411 6.433 6.452 6.475 6.955 7.857 7.991
run27 5.612 5.617 5.759 5.778 5.868 5.978 6.035 6.074 6.396 6.818
run28 5.627 5.746 5.774 5.893 5.897 6.092 6.119 6.306 6.632 7.200
run29 5.590 5.606 5.651 5.899 6.541 6.564 7.067 7.345 8.086 8.305
run30 5.616 5.622 5.929 6.149 6.185 6.264 6.400 6.446 6.873 9.634
run31 6.043 6.084 6.295 6.329 6.330 6.381 6.457 6.669 6.743 7.433
run32 5.898 5.935 6.165 6.235 6.355 6.398 6.477 6.477 6.523 7.284
run33 5.725 5.901 5.962 6.061 6.190 6.524 6.838 6.839 7.202 8.947
run34 5.917 6.094 6.131 6.140 6.146 6.219 6.257 6.515 6.530 6.734
run35 5.855 5.863 5.975 6.052 6.070 6.150 6.185 6.303 6.592 7.431
run36 5.921 5.942 6.061 6.083 6.165 6.400 6.420 6.557 7.200 8.096
run37 5.977 6.035 6.238 6.349 6.352 6.375 6.481 6.538 7.561 8.001
run38 5.841 5.866 5.889 5.901 6.079 6.109 6.285 6.495 6.567 6.967
run39 5.328 5.367 5.496 5.531 5.602 5.881 5.913 5.973 6.481 6.833
run40 6.086 6.105 6.126 6.327 6.375 6.440 6.573 6.862 7.127 8.168

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