Lesley L. Smith – Re. Fire Weather

All plots preliminary.        

Fire Weather and Vapor Pressure Deficit Prediction    

Preliminary ML Results f_3_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg4

Results as of May 7, 2025

Brier Scores and Brier Skill Scores wrt ERA5 medians

JJA 2007 & 2015 together

SON 2007 & 2015 together

Dec 2007 & 2015 together

Annual 2007 & 2015 separate

Annual 2007 & 2015 together

Brier Scores and Brier Skill Scores wrt ERA5 high terciles

JJA 2007 & 2015 together

SON 2007 & 2015 together

Dec 2007 & 2015 together

Annual 2007 & 2015 separate

Annual 2007 & 2015 together

'Raw' Results Ensemble Averages

Differences

Individual Ensemble Members

Differences