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ENSO's effect on U.S. weather

CESM1 Large ensemble experiment

Are El Nino teleconnections changing?

New 30 year periods Anomalies computed wrt 1981-2010. El Ninos computed wrt respective 30-year period.

SST Anomaly Maps

All years:

Strongest El Ninos:

Precip Anomaly Maps

All years:

Strongest El Ninos:

Z200 Anomaly Maps

All years:

Strongest El Ninos:

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5 year periods

where red numbers above are the standard deviations for the adjacent 5-year period.

Look at different 5 year periods: 1921-1925, 1981-1985, 1996-2000, 2016-2020

non-El Nino regimes at bottom.
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New strongest 10 (~95% +) DJF El Ninos for all periods

SST anomaly maps

Differences

Precipitation anomaly maps

Differences

200mb Height anomaly maps

Differences

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Different ENSO regimes

ENSO Neutral

SST Anomaly Maps

Differences

Precipitation Anomaly Maps

Differences

200mb Height Anomaly Maps

Differences

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All years

2020-2016 compared to 1981-1985

2020-2016 compared to 1921-1925

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Without 10 strongest El Ninos 2020-2016 compared to 1981-1985

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Without 10 strongest El Ninos or 10 strongest La Ninas 2020-2016 compared to 1981-1985

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Look at different 5 year periods: 1921-1925, 1981-1985, 1996-2000, 2016-2020

DJF Nino3.4 Index for reference period 1981-2010.

non-El Nino regimes at bottom.

for 2016-2020 ~90%-95% DJF El Ninos

SST anomaly maps

Differences

Precipitation anomaly maps

Differences

200mb Height anomaly maps

Differences

----------------------------------------------------------

strongest 10 (~95% +) DJF El Ninos for all periods

SST anomaly maps

Differences

Precipitation anomaly maps

Differences

200mb Height anomaly maps

Differences

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Different ENSO regimes

ENSO Neutral

SST Anomaly Maps

Differences

Precipitation Anomaly Maps

Differences

200mb Height Anomaly Maps

Differences

---------------------------

All years

2020-2016 compared to 1981-1985

2020-2016 compared to 1921-1925

---------------------------------

Without 10 strongest El Ninos 2020-2016 compared to 1981-1985

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Without 10 strongest El Ninos or 10 strongest La Ninas 2020-2016 compared to 1981-1985