novdec_2015.20yr_return.map

Bimonthly daily extremes in excess of the lower estimate for 20-yr events for November-December 2015

November-December 2015 saw more daily 20-yr events in this season (29.0% of 913 reporting stations) than in any other season of any year on record. This was not expected, since the national trend had been a modest 2.8% per century through 2014 (p=92%). Most of the extreme daily totals were associated with a powerful storm system that swept northeastward from Texas through the Upper Midwest in late December, causing at least 50 deaths and $2.1B in damages (Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events).

Regional records for the season were set in the Midwest (50.4%), Ohio Valley (39.9%), and South (36.6%). Other regions with notable totals were the Pacific Northwest with 21.3% (9th highest) and the Southeast with 25.3% (4th highest). None of these regional or national extremes were preceded by significant upward trends over the last century.