SHOUT: Preliminary Results from the ENRR and Hurricane Campaigns

Gary Wick

Tuesday, May 02, 2017, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 2A305

Abstract

The NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Office is conducting the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) project to evaluate the potential of high altitude,long endurance unmanned aircraft like the Global Hawk to improve forecasts of high-impact weather events and mitigate any degradations in the forecasts that might occur if there were a gap in satellite coverage. Observational campaigns were conducted both as part of the El Nino Rapid Response Experiment (ENRR) and to study hurricanes and tropical cyclones in both 2015 and 2016. In each case, the NASA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft was instrumented with the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS or dropsondes), the High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR, a microwave sounder), and the High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP, a scanning Doppler precipitation radar).



This presentation summarizes the campaigns and ongoing assessments of data impact. Significant accomplishments include improved mission targeting, improved provision of real-time data to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and first-ever operational assimilation of Global Hawk dropsonde data in the Hurricane - Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. Data impact is being evaluated through a combination of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). Initial results, while still limited, suggest the potential for positive impact on storm track and intensity forecasts. Overall, the results from a growing number of studies are consistently demonstrating potential measureable forecast benefits from targeted observations from an unmanned aircraft like the Global Hawk for high-impact weather events. The results are particularly positive when existing elements of our satellite observing system are withheld, simulating the value of the Global Hawk data in the event of a possible gap in polar satellite observations. While demonstrating conclusive, statistically significant forecast impact in an operational environment still requires more analyses, the results thus far are very encouraging.