Subseasonal and Climate Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Global Convection-Permitting Simulations

Rosimar Rios-Berrios

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024, 2:00 pm MT
DSRC Room 1D403

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Abstract

Despite the powerful and devastating effects of tropical cyclones, many questions remain unanswered about these phenomena. For example, what are the precise mechanisms that allow tropical cyclones to form in clusters within a given hurricane season? Furthermore, should we expect more and/or more powerful tropical cyclones in light of our warming oceans?

In this talk, I will address some of these questions using novel idealized numerical experiments with a global model. The experiments—known as aquaplanet simulations—capture the convective dynamics of tropical cyclones and other tropical phenomena by means of employing convection-permitting resolution in the tropics. These experiments reveal an uptick in tropical cyclogenesis events after the rainfall peak of convectively coupled Kelvin waves. While this result has been previously documented, the aquaplanet experiments shed new light on the physical mechanisms that explain the uptick in tropical cyclogenesis. I will discuss these results together with a preliminary overview of tropical cyclone activity in experiments with varying ocean temperatures.

Bio: Dr. Rosimar Rios-Berrios is a Scientist II at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. She is an expert on tropical cyclones, tropical rainfall, and numerical weather prediction. Her research focuses on high-impact weather, with an emphasis on how hurricanes form and become very strong. Dr. Rios-Berrios also enjoys mentoring the next generation of scientists through internships and short-term visits at NCAR.

Dr. Rios-Berrios received her Ph.D. in atmospheric science from the University at Albany (UAlbany), State University of New York in 2017. Before joining UAlbany, she received a B.Sc. in Theoretical Physics and a Curricular Sequence in Meteorology from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez (Antes, ahora, y siempre: ¡Colegio!). Dr. Rios-Berrios was born and raised in Puerto Rico; her interest in atmospheric science was sparked by many encounters with tropical cyclones passing through or near the Island. While she misses the warm, tropical days on the Island, she also enjoys living in a place with seasons and outdoor activities all year round.