Modernizing NOAA's extreme precipitation guidance for high-hazard infrastructure in a changing climate

Kelly Mahoney - Vitaly Kholodovsky - Alex Thompson

NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (All) - CIRES CU Boulder (Thompson)

Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024, 2:00 pm MT
DSRC Room 1D403

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Abstract

With recent Congressional support, NOAA has been authorized to study, develop, and operationalize updated probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates to guide the safe construction and operation of the nation’s high-hazard infrastructure. NOAA's first action was to sponsor a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) study, which was published in June 2024, and now provides a recommended road map for the development of sound, innovative extreme precipitation guidance that meets the needs of current and future infrastructure decision-making.

This talk will combine an overview of the NASEM study recommendations and NOAA’s initial activities and plans to modernize PMP (K. Mahoney), and will feature two areas of work being led within PSL: (1) extreme value analysis (V. Kholodovsky) and (2) the generation of high-resolution, continuous climate simulations to support a long term vision for a model-based approach to improved extreme precipitation sampling and understanding (A. Thompson).

Bios:
Kelly Mahoney is a Research Meteorologist with nearly 15 years of experience studying extreme precipitation with NOAA PSL. Her work focuses on flood risk, as well as the prediction and projections of extremes in a changing climate. She is currently serving as a lead for modernizing NOAA's PMP guidance. She holds B.S., M.S., and PhD degrees in Meteorology and Atmospheric Science from North Carolina State University.

Vitaly Kholodovsky is a Research Scientist in NOAA PSL's Hydrology Applications Division. Vitaly is a recent graduate of University of Maryland, where he was part of the NOAA Cooperative Science Center, NCAS-M. His expertise is in extreme value statistics. He brings innovative spatial statistical analysis approaches to NOAA's modernization of extreme precipitation guidance.

Alex Thompson is a Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder (CIRES) Research Scientist 1 who works in NOAA PSL's Hydrology Applications Division. Alex’s background is in using global climate models to study hydroclimate on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. At PSL, Alex is dynamically downscaling global climate models to study probable maximum precipitation over the continental US.