Experimental Sea Ice Forecasts

Forecast Skill Assessment

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Verification of Daily 2016 Freeze-up Forecasts

RASM-ESRL 30 Oct 2016 Forecast Initialized with AMSR2 28 Oct Sea Ice Concentrations
Oct 30 = Julian day 304, Nov 5 = Julian Day 310
AMSR2 and Forecasts: Arctic Basin
AMSR2 and Forecasts: Chukchi/Beaufort Seas
AMSR2 and Forecasts: Siberia/Laptev Seas
AMSR2 and Forecasts
AMSR2 and Forecast Errors
AMSR2 and Error Growth
AMSR2 and 6-Day Forecast
Persistence vs. Forecast Error
30 Oct 2016 Restart Error

Hindcast Skill Assessment Products
10-day hindcasts of 2015 Arctic Sea Ice Index
GFS Analysis (red) Daily 10-day Hindcasts (black)
skill1
10-day hindcasts of 2015 Chukchi/Beaufort Sea Ice Index
GFS Analysis (red) Daily 10-day Hindcasts (black)
skill2
10-day hindcasts of 2015 Siberia/Laptev Sea Ice Index
GFS Analysis (red) Daily 10-day Hindcasts (black)
10-day hindcasts of 2015 Arctic SST Index
GFS Analysis (red) Daily 10-day Hindcasts (black)
10-day hindcasts of 2015 Chukchi/Beaufort SST Index
GFS Analysis (red) Daily 10-day Hindcasts (black)
10-day hindcasts of 2015 Siberia/Laptev SST Index
GFS Analysis (red) Daily 10-day Hindcasts (black)
RMSE Arctic Sea Ice Index relative to GFS Analysis (9/9/15-11/2/15)
RASM-ESRL (red) Persistence (blue)
RMSE Chukchi/Beaufort Sea Ice Index relative to GFS Analysis
RASM-ESRL (red) Persistence (blue)
RMSE Arctic SST Index relative to GFS Analysis (9/9/15-11/2/15)
RASM-ESRL (red) Persistence (blue)
RMSE Chukchi/Beaufort SST Index relative to GFS Analysis
RASM-ESRL (red) Persistence (blue)
RASM-ESRL Forecasts vs IABP in Central Arctic
RASM-ESRL Forecasts vs IABP in Marginal Ice Zone
Please contact Amy Solomon and Janet Intrieri with questions and comments. We are particularly interested if you find this information useful.
Note, the forecasts are experimental. NOAA/ESRL is not responsible for any losses due to their use.
To reference plots, please include: "Plot provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/ ."