Model-Analogs (MA) and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts for Months 1-24
(Experimental NOAA/PSL and U. of Colorado/CIRES Forecast)
Notes: Initial working version. Data download and short model descriptions not yet available; testing for BUGS.
Experimental forecasts of numerous tropical fields, including precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea surface height (SSH); other variables may become available at a later date. Anomalies represent monthly averages and are relative to a 1982-2011 monthly climatology.
Current Month 6 MA precipitation forecast and Niño3.4 Months 1-24 forecast from all models:
DownloadsAll gridded hindcast data are available in netCDF format, and will become available for download here.
All hindcast time series are available in ascii format, and will become available for download here.
The most current forecast output is available for download here.
Details of the techniquesBrief descriptions of MA and LIM forecast methodologies will be available soon. For full, more technical descriptions, see:
Linear Inverse Model (LIM):
Related ForecastsOfficial CPC/IRI ENSO forecast
Page creditsWeb page design: Don Hooper
Realtime forecast code development: Yan Wang and Matt Newman
Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NOAA/PSL and CIRES/University of Colorado are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.