Model-Analogs (MA) and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts for Months 1-24

(Experimental NOAA/PSL and U. of Colorado/CIRES Forecast)

VERSION: 1.0beta
Notes: Initial working version. Data download and short model descriptions not yet available; testing for BUGS.

Experimental forecasts of numerous tropical fields, including precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea surface height (SSH); other variables may become available at a later date. Anomalies represent monthly averages and are relative to a 1982-2011 monthly climatology.

Current Month 6 MA precipitation forecast and Niño3.4 Months 1-24 forecast from all models:


All gridded hindcast data are available in netCDF format, and are available for download here.
All hindcast time series are available in ASCII format, and are available for download here.
The most current forecast output is available for download here.

Details of the techniques

Brief descriptions of MA and LIM forecast methodologies will be available soon. For full, more technical descriptions, see:

Model-analogs (MA):
  • Ding, H., M. Newman, M. A. Alexander, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2019: Diagnosing secular variations in retrospective ENSO seasonal forecast skill using CMIP5 model-analogs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 1721-1730, doi: 10.1029/2018GRL080598.
  • Ding, H., M. Newman, M. A. Alexander, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2018: Skillful climate forecasts of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean using model-analogs. J. Climate, 31, 5437-5459, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0661.1.

    Linear Inverse Model (LIM):
  • Newman, M. and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2017: Are we near the predictability limit of tropical sea surface temperatures? Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074088.
  • Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The Optimal Growth of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1999:togots>;2.

    Related Forecasts

    Official CPC/IRI ENSO forecast

    Page credits

    Web page design: Don Hooper
    Realtime forecast code development: Yan Wang and Matt Newman

    Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NOAA/PSL and CIRES/University of Colorado are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.