Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSL and CU CIRES Forecast of Nino4 in Global Tropics Domain
Predictions of Niño 3.4 region
|Region forecasted highlighted above in yellow.|
Predictions of Niño 4 SSTA (red solid line) and verification (blue solid line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast. Niño 4 index was calculated in the area 6N-6S, 160E-150W.
|  Verification history|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 3 months|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 6 months|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 9 months|
|  Forecasts, Lead = 12 months|
Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the expected forecast uncertainty given a perfect model. Blue line: Lead = 3 months. Red line: Lead = 6 months. Black line: Lead = 9 months. Yellow line: Lead = 12 months. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.
Return to the main page.
If you acquire LIM Pacific SST Anomalies and PDO Forecasts products from our website, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. For example:
LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division and CIRES CU, Boulder, Colorado, from their website at /.