"Perfect Model" Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Methods ESTCP Atlas of Results for CONUS
Downscaling methods are evaluated using the "perfect model" framework, where one model is treated "as if" it were the truth, both in the present and in the future. The evaluation is done in two phases reflecting two fundamental features underlying many empirical statistical downscaling -- bias correction, and change of spatial scale.
User Guide: How to use and interpret the atlas.
Evaluation of three downscaling methods:
- KDDM -- Kernel Density Downscaling Method
- QDM -- Quantile Delta Method
- TD -- Transient Delta
Three climate variables :
- Tasmax -- Daily Maximum Temperature
- Tasmin -- Daily Minimum Temperature
- Pr -- Daily Precipitation (Pr is not available for the KDDM method)
Four Time Periods
- Historical (1976-2005)
- Seasonal mean (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON)
- Extremes (1st, 5th 95th and 99th percentiles)
- Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for difference of probability distribution
Multiple GCM/RCM models:
- Six GCM/RCM combinations (Phase I)
- Two GCM/RCM combinations (Phase II)
Data for plots
- To cite plots "Image provided by the NOAA-ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/models/estcp/"
- If you are interested in the data, please contact Keith Dixon at NOAA/GFDL
FundingThis work funded by the Department of Defense Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) and performed by NOAA Earth System Research Lab Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
This is a Research and Development Application