Lesley L. Smith – Re. Wildland Fire Potential

All plots preliminary.        

For comparison, analysis of precipitation anomalies for 1984-2021 here.

Re. Vapor Pressure Deficit computed using ERA5 data

Analysis of Monthly anomalies for 1984-2021 here

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021

Conditioning via simultaneous climate indices El Nino Southern Oscillation

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by El Nino
DJF, MAM, SON VPDs are generally lesser in the southern U.S. for El_Nino, JJA may be greater in southwest

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by La Nina
DJF,MAM,SON VPDs are generally greater in the southern U.S. for La_Nina,JJA may be less in the southwest

Conditioning via leading ENSO indices here

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Re. Madden Julian Oscillation

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase1

Phase 1 seems to decrease VPD along the California coast in DJF, MAM, and SON.

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase2

Phase 2 seems to decrease VPD along the California coast in DJF, MAM, and SON.

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase3

The Phase 3 results seem to show decreased VPD in southern CONUS for DJF, MAM, JJA

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase4

The Phase 4 results seem to show decreased VPD for JJA and SON in southern CONUS

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase5

VPD seems to decrease in southwestern CONUS for JJA and SON

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase6

VPD may decrease in southwestern CONUS for SON

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase7

VPD may decrease in southwestern CONUS for MAM, JJA, SON

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase8

VPD may decrease for southwestern CONUS for MAM

Conditioning via leading MJO Phases here

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Conditioning via simultaneous climate indices Quasi Biennial Oscillation

Note: a positive QBO corresponds to Westerly winds and a negative QBO corresponds to Easterly winds

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by positive QBO

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by negative QBO

Conditioning via leading QBO indices here

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Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase1 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase2 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase3 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase4 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase5 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase6 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase7 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase8 and El_Nino

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase1 and La_Nina

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase2

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase3 and La_Nina

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase4 and La_Nina

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase5 and La_Nina

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase6 and La_Nina

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase7 and La_Nina

Seasonal anomalies for 1984-2021 conditioned by MJO_Phase8 and La_Nina

Re. Largest Historical ConUS Fires

All calculations done with ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) Data

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) precursors

The leftmost plots are the monthly ENSO Index for the 12 months preceding the event. If it is greater than 0.5 it is in an El Nino state. If it is less than -0.5 it is in a La Nina state. Values between 0.5 and -0.5 are generally considered ENSO neutral.
The center plots are the daily MJO Index for the 6 months preceding the event. The dates are color-coded, with January days dark purple, February days medium purple, March days light purple, and so on. The locations of the dots indicated the MJO Phase. Values inside the unit circle are considered MJO neutral. The large black dot indicates the first day of the plot with the large red dot indicating the last day of the plot, the ignition day.
The rightmost plots are the daily Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) for the ignition day. The large blue dot shows the ignition location.

Region: Eastern Sector

Fire name: UNNAMED-2. Area Burned (Acres): 131401. Ignition Date:19870405. Lat:48.098. Lon:-95.46

Fire name: PAGAMI CREEK. Area Burned (Acres):85116. Ignition Date:20110817. Lat:47.828. Lon:-91.29

Region: Great Basin

Firename: MURPHY COMPLEX. Area Burned (Acres):567409. Ignition Date:20070721 Lat:42.16. Lon:-115.32

Firename: MARTIN. Area Burned (Acres):432180. Ignition Date:20180705. Lat:41.61. Lon:-116.9

Region: Northern Rockies

Fire name: NORTH FORK. Area Burned (Acres):563527. Ignition Date:19880722. Lat:44.68. Lon:-110.72

Fire name: CLOVERMIST. Area Burned (Acres):303427. Ignition Date:19880709. Lat:44.76. Lon:-109.9

Region: Northwest

Fire name: LONG DRAW. Area Burned (Acres):557620. Ignition Date:20120708. Lat:42.43. Lon:-117.62

Fire name: BISCUIT COMPLEX. Area Burned (Acres):495308. Ignition Date:20020713. Lat:42.44. Lon:-123.9

Region: Northern California

Fire name: AUGUST COMPLEX. Area Burned (Acres):1068802. Ignition Date:20200817. Lat:39.94. Lon:-123.03

Fire name: DIXIE.Area Burned (Acres):979795. Ignition Date:20210714. Lat:40.32. Lon:-120.86

Region: Southern California

Fire name: CREEK. Area Burned (Acres): 381441. Ignition Date:20200905. Lat:37.32. Lon:-119.21

Fire name: THOMAS. Area Burned (Acres): 281982. Ignition Date:20171204. Lat:34.46. Lon:-119.3

Region: Rocky Mountain

Fire name: OKS - STARBUCK. Area Burned (Acres): 657299. Ignition Date:20170307. Lat:37.08. Lon:-99.89

Fire name: ANDERSON CREEK FIRE. Area Burned (Acres):374423. Ignition Date:20160323. Lat:37.11. Lon:-98.83

Region: Southern

Fire name: EAST AMARILLO COMPLEX. Area Burned (Acres):593364. Ignition Date: 20060312. Lat:35.51. Lon:-100.78

Fire name: BIG TURNAROUND COMPLEX. Area Burned (Acres):328827. Ignition Date:20070425. Lat:30.59. Lon:-82.37

Region: Southwest

Fire name: WALLOW. Area Burned (Acres):563664. Ignition Date:20110529. Lat:33.79. Lon:-109.25

Fire name: RODEO. Area Burned (Acres):461774. Ignition Date:20020618. Lat:34.23. Lon:-110.46

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Sample VPD for first 1000 timesteps of 2010: here