Lesley L. Smith – Drought
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All plots preliminary.
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Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains
original version of this page here
Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (Lens) data from NCAR
CESM LENS (red) and NCEI-5km (black), upper and lower limits are upper and lower deciles OR minimum and maximum
anomaly reference period: 1920-2000
above ncei line smoothed by 20-year running mean
above ncei line smoothed by 10-year running mean
CESM LENS (blue) and NCEI-5km (black)
CESM LENS (brown)
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Number of dry days for three different Junes, Sample Runs
National Centers for Environment Information (NCEI) data
Station Data
Regarding the number of dry days:
For 'dry' ~ 0.1 inches precip:
For 'dry' ~ 0 inches precip:
NLDAS Forcing data
NLDAS Data
Noah Data sample files
Mosaic Data sample files
VIC Data sample files
Forcing Data sample files
NLDAS Soil Moisture data
Sample plots
Mosaic: comparing monthly and daily maps
top 10 cm
top 1 m
Noah: comparing monthly and daily maps
top 10 cm
top 1 m
VIC: comparing monthly and daily maps
top 10 cm
top 1 m
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21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand
5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES
full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)
MACA only plots:
Running 2 week accumulations
Exceedance Probabilities:
Ratios 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era for exceedance probabilities
Focusing on the Great Plains:
Great Plains Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilities, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1
header refers to the exceedance probability
ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.2week.txt
Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities
header refers to the exceedance probability
ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.2week.txt
above tables for MACA cases only
Plots
2-week Quantiles:
ASCII file quantiles76.output.txt
ASCII file quantiles36.output.txt
Differences of Quantiles:
ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.txt
Probability Density Functions
Running 90-day accumulations
Exceedance Probabilities
90-day Quantiles:
ASCII file quantiles76.output.90d.txt
ASCII file quantiles36.output.90d.txt
Differences of Quantiles:
ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.90d.txt
probability density functions: