Lesley L. Smith – Drought


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Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains

original version of this page here

Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (Lens) data from NCAR

CESM LENS (red) and NCEI-5km (black), upper and lower limits are upper and lower deciles OR minimum and maximum
anomaly reference period: 1920-2000



above ncei line smoothed by 20-year running mean

above ncei line smoothed by 10-year running mean

CESM LENS (blue) and NCEI-5km (black)




CESM LENS (brown)




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Number of dry days for three different Junes, Sample Runs
       
       
           

National Centers for Environment Information (NCEI) data

   

           

   


Station Data

Regarding the number of dry days:
For 'dry' ~ 0.1 inches precip:

 

For 'dry' ~ 0 inches precip:

NLDAS Forcing data

NLDAS Data

Noah Data sample files

Mosaic Data sample files

VIC Data sample files

Forcing Data sample files

NLDAS Soil Moisture data

Sample plots

Mosaic: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

Noah: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

VIC: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

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21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand

5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES

full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)

MACA only plots:

Running 2 week accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities:

Ratios 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era for exceedance probabilities

Focusing on the Great Plains:

Great Plains Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilities, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.2week.txt

Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.2week.txt

above tables for MACA cases only

Plots

2-week Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles76.output.txt


ASCII file quantiles36.output.txt

Differences of Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.txt

Probability Density Functions

Running 90-day accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities

90-day Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles76.output.90d.txt


ASCII file quantiles36.output.90d.txt

Differences of Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.90d.txt

probability density functions: