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Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains

     

21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand

5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES

full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)

Single Days

MJJAS mean MACA
Historical 1976-2005

RCP8.5 2036-2065

mean RCP8.5 2036-2065 minus Historical 1976-2005

MJJAS coefficient of variation MACA
Historical 1976-2005

RCP8.5 2036-2065

Running 2 week accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities:

Quantiles:

Differences of Quantiles:

Probability Density Functions

Running 90-day accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities

Quantiles:

Differences of Quantiles:

probability density functions:

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SINGLE DAYS

May June July August Sept days: ETr [mm/day]:

Combos: