Lesley L. Smith – Drought
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Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains
![](IMAGES/DROUGHT/Map_of_the_Great_Plains.jpg)
![](IMAGES/DROUGHT/droughtmonitor.jul72017.png)
21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand
5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES
full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)
Single Days
MJJAS mean MACA
Historical 1976-2005
RCP8.5 2036-2065
mean RCP8.5 2036-2065 minus Historical 1976-2005
MJJAS coefficient of variation MACA
Historical 1976-2005
RCP8.5 2036-2065
Running 2 week accumulations
Exceedance Probabilities:
Quantiles:
Differences of Quantiles:
Probability Density Functions
Running 90-day accumulations
Exceedance Probabilities
Quantiles:
Differences of Quantiles:
probability density functions:
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SINGLE DAYS
May June July August Sept days: ETr [mm/day]:
Combos: