Lesley L. Smith: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Lesley L. Smith – El Nino 2016


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Winter El Nino Model Dynamics

ENSO's effect on U.S. weather

Older plots including average and variance DJF Z500 from CAM here.
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Analyses of Xiao-Wei CAM and related Data

2.5 to 6-day filtered data polar stereographic plots at bottom

NAO from Control Climatology Z500:

Time-series projections on Control Climatology NAO:

Following plots created from seasonal DJF data (1 per year):



Following plots created from monthly DJF data (3 per year):




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Following plots created from daily DJF data (90 per year):


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========================================================================================================================== 2.5 to 6-day filtered data polar stereographic plots

Reanalyses:
ERA-Interim data:


ERA-Interim differences:

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NCEP1 data:


NCEP differences:

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Control Run from CAM:

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Averages for all the various cases:



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Comparing different runs:

Comparing to Control runs:



where contour lines above are climatology from Control Run.


where contour lines above are E16rTrop.



where contour lines are for ETPac cases.


where stippling indicates 95% from t-test.

Xiao-Wei CAM E2015r ETPac case

CAM DJF Precipitation

Differences wrt to AMIP 1981-2010 CAM:

DJF mean precipitation:


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root mean square DJF Z500 from Xiao-Wei CAM ETPac case

Differences:


where contour lines are E16r case.


where stippling indicates 95% from t-test
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Xiao-Wei CAM E2015r case

CAM DJF Precipitation

Differences wrt to AMIP 1981-2010 CAM:

DJF mean precipitation:


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root mean square DJF Z500 from Xiao-Wei CAM

Differences:


where contour lines are E16r case.

same plots with 95% stippling (from t-test):

averaging over rms for 4 different cases:

All runs 'Global SST' CAM skipping first 11 months:

All runs Standard AMIP CAM






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AMIP individual years

DJF mean precipitation: