Lesley L. Smith – ExtraTropical Cyclones

All plots preliminary.        

Extra-Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers
Tempest Extremes Code available here: https://github.com/ClimateGlobalChange/tempestextremes

ExtraTropical Cyclone TempestExtremes 200Pa PSL calculations 12h persistance

In-depth study of Ocean Nino Index for CESM2 here.

Extratropical Cyclone results

Seasonal DJF Track Densities

Note: below 'Average' and 'Standard Deviation' refer to calculations completed across the run dimension
after any differences or averaging over years.

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

ENSO Phases

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by El Nino

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by La Nina

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by ENSO Neutral conditions

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

MJO Phases

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 1

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 2

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 3

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 4

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 5

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 6

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 7

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 8

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here
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Atmospheric River results (sum over AR_objects)

Seasonal DJF

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal ENSO Phases DJF

El Nino

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

La Nina

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Neutral

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

MJO Phases

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 1

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 2

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 3

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 4

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 5

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 6

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 7

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here

Seasonal DJF Track Densities conditioned by MJO Phase 8

   

Results for individual historical runs posted here

   

Results for individual future runs posted here

   

Results for individual runs posted here
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Supporting information

Supporting information: CESM2 DJF 'Trend' in Surface Temperature

(2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

Differences of CESM2 DJF TS for individual runs here
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Supporting information: CESM2 DJF 'Trend' in 200hPa Zonal Wind

(2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

Differences of CESM2 DJF U200 for individual runs here
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Supporting information: CESM2 DJF 'Trend' in PSL

(2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

Differences of CESM2 DJF PSL for individual runs here
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Supporting information: CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies

CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies for individual 'historical' runs here

CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies for individual 'future' runs here

(2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences for CESM2 DJF Z500 anomalies

Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

Differences of CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies for individual runs here

El Nino Conditioned (2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences for CESM2 DJF Z500 anomalies

Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

El Nino Differences of CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies for individual runs here

La Nina Conditioned (2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences for CESM2 DJF Z500 anomalies

Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

La Nina Differences of CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies for individual runs here

ENSO Neutral (2100-2070)-(1985-2015) differences for CESM2 DJF Z500 anomalies

Average and Standard Deviation across run dimension

   

ENSO Neutral Differences of CESM2 DJF Z500 Anomalies for individual runs here

Coming soon above Z500 analyses conditioned on MJO and both ENSO & MJO