sepoct_2016.20yr_return.map

Bimonthly daily extremes in excess of the lower estimate for 20-yr events for September-October 2016

September-October 2016 registered the 4th highest national count of 20-yr daily precipitation events for this season since 1901 (18.3% of 911 stations). This confirms a highly significant (p=99.9%) upward trend of 3.5% per century, just like in July-August. The national count was anchored by the following regional totals: Pacific Northwest (45.1%, a new record), West (36.6%, 4th highest), Midwest (28.3%, 5th highest), and Northeast (28.8%, 9th highest). Only the Northeast had shown significant upward trends in this season prior to 2016 (p=99%).

Hurricane Matthew skirted the southeastern seaboard around the 10th of October, leading to flooding rains that caused 49 fatalities and $10.6B in damages to tie with the flooding rains of Louisiana for the most damaging event of 2016 ( https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events). The 20-yr daily extreme coverage for the Southeast was 22.3% (12th highest since 1901), confirming an upward trend of 3.9% per century that nevertheless only reached 86% significance through 2015.