To dissect the effects of many weather and climate factors on last summer’s Texas heat wave, Hoerling and his colleagues drew on diverse tools: weather records, long historical simulations of weather patterns over the globe from sophisticated climate models and weather forecast models set with the particular conditions leading up to the summer of 2011.
Observational Datasets
Model Datasets
Table 1. Summary of the climate simulations, predictions, and projections diagnosed in the current paper, including the nature of their external and boundary forcings, the length of integrations, and the available ensemble size.
* Anomaly calculated relative to a 1981-2010 GFSv2 AMIP set having same CO2 as the 2011 run
| Type | Model | Radiative Forcing | SST,Sea Ice | Duration (Target time) |
Ensemble Members |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-industrial simulation | CMIP5 | Pre-industrial | Coupled | > 500 years | 1 run each for 19 models |
| Historical simulation | GFSv2 | Observed CO2 | Observed (AMIP) | 1950-2010 | 12 |
| Event simulation | GFSv2* | Observed CO2 | Observed (AMIP) | Oct. 2009 - Sep. 2011 | 80 |
| Historical simulation | CMIP5 | Observed(see text) | Coupled | 1880-2005 | 1 run each for 20 models |
| Projection | CMIP5 | RCP 4.5 (see text) | Coupled | 2006-2016 | 1 run each for 20 models |
| Forecast (0-lead) |
CFSv1 | 1988 CO2 | Coupled | June 01 - August 31, 2011 | 120 (initialized every 6 hours) |
| Hindcast (0-lead) |
CFSv1 | 1988 CO2 | Coupled | June 01 - August 31, 1981-2009 | 15 (initialized once daily, staggered every 2 days) |
| Forecast (0-lead) |
CFSv2 | Observed & projected CO2 | Coupled | June 01 - August 31, 2011 | 120 (initialized every 6 hours) |
| Hindcast (0-lead) |
CFSv2 | Observed CO2 | Coupled | June 01 - August 31, 1982-2010 | 24 (initialized every 6 hours, staggered every 5 days) |