El Niño Forecasts
|The ability to forecast El Nino and La Nina events is extremely important as these events tend to be associated with consistent climate anomalies in the tropics and can even influence the atmosphere in midlatitudes. Forecasts are of two types; those obtained from various coupled ocean/atmosphere models those obtained from statistical models (from simple to complex). These models vary in their skill and sometimes can even do better during certain phases of ENSO than others. Forecasters try to take all this in account when making predictions.|
Statistical forecasts of SST anomalies based on current initial
conditions. SST data used in these forecasts have been provided by
NCEP, courtesy of R. W. Reynolds. Contour interval is 0.3 degrees C.
Tropical C-LIM "Coupled" LIM forecast (from PSL)(See also details. CLIM is user to create forecasts of Tropical Convection, Wind, and SST for out to 200 days.