Linear Inverse Modeling Tropical OLR and SST Anomalies Months 2-9 ForecastsC-LIM VERSION 3.2beta: Interim update. Resolution improved to 2x2 degree, replaced NCEP R1 winds with CFSR winds, and updates one day sooner. STILL IN BETA; SOME PARTS INCOMPLETE.
Cross-validated C-LIM forecast skill for OLR (left) and SST (right) anomalies. Note that this skill is derived by comparing the forecasts to the (untruncated in EOF space) verifications. These forecast leads are comparable to leads of 2-9 months, although note the skill is of a 5-day average, not of a monthly average.
Cross-validated C-LIM forecast skill for OLR (left) and SST (right) seasonal anomalies, defined from 95-day means. The seasonal forecast anomaly is constructed by averaging either pentads 18-36 (days 86-180) or 36-54 (days 176-270) together to form "Months 4-6" and "Months 7-9" forecasts.