Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSL and CU CIRES Forecast of NTA Index in Global Tropics Domain

Tables (Missing values indicated by -999.000):

*  Verification history
*  Forecasts, Lead = 3 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 6 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 9 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 12 months

Predictions of NTA Index (red solid line) and verification (blue solid line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast.

nta.plots

Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the expected forecast uncertainty given a perfect model. Blue line: Lead = 3 months. Red line: Lead = 6 months. Black line: Lead = 9 months. Yellow line: Lead = 12 months. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.

errntagl.plots

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Citing

If you acquire LIM Pacific SST Anomalies and PDO Forecasts products from our website, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. For example:

LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data provided by the NOAA Physical Science Laboratory and CIRES CU, Boulder, Colorado, from their website at https://psl.noaa.gov/.