Lesley L. Smith – Re. Wildland Fire Potential

All plots preliminary.        

Re. Fire Weather and Vapor Pressure Deficit Prediction    

VPD Prediction Preliminary Weekly ML Results (using GEFSv12 Reforecast Fields):
As of ~May 7, 2025

Brier Scores, where the ML predicted probabilities are computed with respect to the ERA5 2000-2019 upper terciles,
and the actual outcomes are computed with respect to the specific ERA5 VPD value for that week.
(Recall smaller is better for Brier Scores.)

Brier Skill Scores: (Recall bigger is better for Brier Skill Scores)

Brier Score Timeseries (left) and Brier Skill Score Timeseries (right)

f_2_huber_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg4 Results    

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

f_2_model_output_b8_e_30_d2_lneg4 Results    

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

f_2_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg3 Results    

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

f_2_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg4 Results    

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

f_2_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg5 Results    

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

f_3_huber_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg4 Results    

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

f_3_model_output_b8_e_30_d3_lneg4 Results

2007 & 2015 separate

2007 & 2015 together

For Reference, Weekly: (all via formula)

2007_ERA5_VPD     2015_ERA5_VPD     2007_Reforecast_VPD     2015_Reforecast_VPD    

Week1 GEFSv12_Reforecast minus ERA5 (all via formula)

Diffs_Week1_2007_Reforecast_ERA5_VPD     Diffs_Week1_2015_Reforecast_ERA5_VPD    

Results from ~April 23, 2025 here

Results from ~April 9, 2025 here

ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) Data

Brier Score Timeseries

Brier Score Maps

Sample ERA5 VPD High Terciles 2000-2019:

ERA5 VPD High Terciles all weeks here.

ERA5 VPD Sample Weekly Climatologies 2000-2019:

ERA5 VPD Weekly Climatologies all weeks here.

ERA5 VPD Sample Weekly Anomalies 2000:

ERA5 VPD Weekly Anomalies all years here.

Older ERA5 VPD plots here.

GEFSv12 ReForecast Data

Downloaded GEFSv12 ReForecast Data includes Precipitation, Geopotential_Height at 200mb, 850mb, and surface, Precipitable_Water, Soil Moisture, Specific Humidity at 200mb, 850mb, Temperature at 200mb, 850mb, and 2-meters, Zonal & Meridional Winds at 200mb, 850mb, Upward Longwave Radiation Flux, Snow Depth Water Equivalent.
Calculated ReForecast GEFSv12 Data includes Wind Speed at 200mb, 850mb, dew point temperature (via relative humidity), vapor pressure deficit
Note each ReForecast has one initiatiation Date with 00Z initiation time; each ReForecast has 11 ensemble members; each ReForecast has 140 6-hour-forecast increments.
Below are links to plots of weekly min, max, and mean for weeks 1,2,3,4 (where statistics performed over forecast_hours) for ensemble means and standard_deviations for various dates.

20000105     20000112    20000119    20000126    20000202    20000209    20000216   
More dates available upon request.

GEFSv12 Forecast Data

GEFSv12 Forecast sample 20250202 VPD movie here

Downloaded Realtime GEFSv12 Forecast Data includes Precipitation, Dewpoint_Temperature, Geopotential_Height at 200mb, 850mb, and surface, Precipitable_Water, Soil Moisture, Specific Humidity at 200mb, 850mb, Temperature at 200mb, 850mb, and 2-meters, Zonal & Meridional Winds at 200mb, 850mb, Upward Longwave Radiation Flux, Snow Depth Water Equivalent.
Calculated Realtime GEFSv12 Data includes Wind Speed at 200mb, 850mb, and Vapor Pressure Deficit.
Note each Forecast has one initiatiation Date with 00Z initiation time; each Forecast has 31 ensemble members; each Forecast has 140 6-hour-forecast increments.
Below are links to plots of weekly min, max, and mean for weeks 1,2,3,4 (where statistics performed over forecast_hours) for ensemble means and standard_deviations for various dates. Lag-0 cross-correlations with VPD are also performed (over all forecast_hours).

20250101     20250108    20250115    20250122    20250129    20250205    20250212    20250219    20250226    20250305    20250312    20250319    20250326    20250402    20250409    20250416    20250423    20250430    20250507    20250514    20250521   
New plots added in realtime as data becomes available.