Table 1. Summary of the climate simulations, predictions, and projections diagnosed in the current paper, including the nature of their external and boundary forcings, the length of integrations, and the available ensemble size.

Type	Model	Radiative Forcing	SST,Sea Ice	Duration (Target time)	Ensemble Members
[[83ac3662-d3a6-422e-80f5-04d2ca3ab777\|Pre-industrial simulation]]	CMIP5	Pre-industrial	Coupled	> 500 years	1 run each for 19 models
[[78886db0-4db6-4c85-a6e8-f2358799785e\|Historical simulation]]	GFSv2	Observed CO2	Observed (AMIP)	1950-2010	12
[[3f0ec1e1-7b2c-4716-8401-890eb0ae508f\|Event simulation]]	GFSv2*	Observed CO2	Observed (AMIP)	Oct. 2009 - Sep. 2011	80
[[5eb0ff05-af37-4392-9bc8-30f17bd35c5a\|Historical simulation]]	CMIP5	Observed(see text)	Coupled	1880-2005	1 run each for 20 models
[[4fd02c0c-44db-4219-8ffe-0c6b63ffbab9\|Projection]]	CMIP5	RCP 4.5 (see text)	Coupled	2006-2016	1 run each for 20 models
Forecast (0-lead)	CFSv1	1988 CO2	Coupled	June 01 - August 31, 2011	120 (initialized every 6 hours)
Hindcast (0-lead)	CFSv1	1988 CO2	Coupled	June 01 - August 31, 1981-2009	15 (initialized once daily, staggered every 2 days)
Forecast (0-lead)	CFSv2	Observed & projected CO2	Coupled	June 01 - August 31, 2011	120 (initialized every 6 hours)
Hindcast (0-lead)	CFSv2	Observed CO2	Coupled	June 01 - August 31, 1982-2010	24 (initialized every 6 hours, staggered every 5 days)

* Anomaly calculated relative to a 1981-2010 GFSv2 AMIP set having same CO₂ as the 2011 run