Table 2. The left column shows the simulated June-August 2011 Texas surface temperature anomalies for the indicated suite of models based on their ensemble average 2011 simulations relative to a 1981-2010 model reference. The standard deviation of simulated June-August surface temperatures is the average of the 1981-2010 runs and the 2011 runs. Event probability in the third column is for the exceedence of a 2 standardized departure warming over Texas for the 1981-2010 distribution of simulations. Event probabilities in the fourth column are for exceeding this same threshold, but based on the distribution of simulations for 2011. The probabilities are calculated from the non-parametric curves of the simulated frequency distributions shown in the Fig. 7 for CMIP and AMIP, and Fig. 13 for CFS. The right column shows the change in probability of event exceedence.
| MODEL | JJA 2011 TEXAS TANOM | MODEL STD DEV | EVENT PROBABILITY (1981-2010) | EVENT PROBABILITY (2011) | INCREASE EVENT PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMIP5 | +0.6°C | 1.2°C | 4.7% | 6.6% | 45% |
| AMIP | +1.1°C | 0.9°C | 4.3% | 23.5% | 450% |
| CFSv1 | +0.7°C | 0.8°C | 4.3% | 14.3% | 230% |
| CFSv2 | +0.8°C | 0.7°C | 6.5% | 22.8% | 250% |