Figure 11. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of GFS simulated June-August Texas surface temperature based on a joint condition of dry antecedent and dry summer conditions (red curve), and for unconditional model realizations (blue curve). Red PDF is comprised of the 41 realizations that were among both the driest 20% Oct-May and the driest 20% June-August conditions. Blue PDF is the unconditioned frequency distribution that is comprised of all 720 model realizations. Grey tic mark denotes the magnitude of the observed JJA 2011 Texas temperature departure.