Atmosphere–Ocean Processes and Predictability

The connection between Earth's oceans and atmosphere has a direct impact on the weather and climate conditions experienced around the globe. For example, warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the tropics can alter weather patterns, causing drought over the western US, while bringing extreme rains to the southeast.

Understanding the processes driving these interactions and their predictability is a key component in improving forecasts and warnings. This can help keep communities safe and guide decisions related to such issues as water management, emergency planning, and ecosystem resilience.

What We Do

PSL's Atmosphere-Ocean Processes and Predictability Division investigates the role of ocean processes, air-sea interaction, and tropical-extratropical exchanges on climate variability and predictability.

We use a combination of data analysis and modeling to better understand and characterize physical mechanisms driving Earth's weather and climate, on time scales ranging from days to decades both to advance understanding and improve forecasts.

Research Activities

Analyze

Tropical Variability

We study multiple aspects of tropical variability including El Niño and La Niña warm and cold periods in the equatorial Pacific, as well as the Madden Julian Oscillation, a large-scale weather pattern that progresses eastward across the tropics, and how these phenomena influence weather patterns outside of the tropics, including the United States.

Investigate

Marine Ecosystem Impacts

We investigate the impacts of climate variability and change, including the causes and effects of marine heat waves (periods of exceptional warmth in the ocean) on marine ecosystems.

Characterize

Sources of Predictability

We evaluate tropical sources of predictability in mathematical models on time scales ranging from weeks to decades and identify “windows of opportunity” when high forecast skill may be predictable in advance.

Predict

Ocean Conditions

Statistical and physics-based models are used to predict the state of the ocean, including temperature and sea level, from seasons to years. We use regional ocean models to predict ocean physics, chemistry, and biology (plankton) out to a year and make projections over the 21st century. Data-based models in development provide useful forecasts to help us better understand climate processes.

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Design

Web-Based Systems

We develop online applications to display and analyze present day atmosphere and ocean variability and future climate states simulated by computer models.

Develop

Tropical Diagnostics

We develop analysis tools to assess interactions between tropical clouds, storms, winds, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land processes that are used as targets for global model development.

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Featured Projects

Marine Heatwave Forecasts

a school of fish swims in shallow ocean water with the sun beaming through the surface

Climate Ecosystem and Fisheries Initiative (CEFI)

Madden-Julian Oscillation

Publication Highlights

Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America, by Dillon Amaya (PSL), Michael Alexander (PSL), Michael Jacox, James Scott (PSL/CIRES), Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi (PSL/CIRES), and Adam Phillips, 2023 Nat. Comm Learn more

Global forecasts of marine heatwaves, by Michael Jacox, Michael Alexander (PSL), Dillon Amaya (PSL), et al., 2022 Nature Learn more

Tropical thermodynamicconvection coupling in observations and reanalyses, by Brandon Wolding (PSL/CIRES), Scott Powell, Fiaz Ahmed, Juliana Dias (PSL), Maria Gehne (PSL/CIRES), George Kiladis (PSL), and J. David Neelin, 2022 J. Atm. Sci. Learn more

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability, by Tongtong Xu (PSL/CIRES), Matthew Newman (PSL), Antonietta Capotondi (PSL/CIRES), Samantha Stevenson, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, and Michael Alexander (PSL), 2022 Nature Learn more

An example plot of marine heatwaves shown on a globe graphic

Division Chief

Juliana Dias

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