Atmosphere–Ocean Processes and Predictability

The connection between Earth's oceans and atmosphere has a direct impact on the weather and climate conditions experienced around the globe. For example, warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the tropics can alter weather patterns, causing drought over the western US, while bringing extreme rains to the southeast. Understanding the processes driving these interactions and their predictability is a key component in improving forecasts and warnings. This information can help keep communities safe and guide decisions related to such issues as water management, emergency planning, and ecosystem resilience.

What We Do

PSL's Atmosphere-Ocean Processes and Predictability Division investigates the roles of ocean processes, air-sea interaction, and tropical-extratropical exchanges on climate variability and predictability. We use a combination of data analysis and modeling to better understand and characterize physical mechanisms driving Earth's weather and climate, on time scales ranging from days to decades both to advance understanding and improve forecasts.

Research Activities

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Publication Highlight

The February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak in the United States: a Subseasonal Forecast of Opportunity, By John Albers (PSL/CIRES) et al., 2022, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.  Learn more

Temperature anomaly maps comparing observations, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting IFS model forecast, and the LIM reforecast


Michael Alexander

Michael Alexander

Chief, Atmosphere-Ocean Processes and Predictability Division

Division Staff List