ESRL/PSD Seminar Series
Understanding El Niņo in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and challenges
Eric Guilyardi
IPSL/Ocean, Paris France and NCAS Climate, Reading UK
Abstract
Determining how El Niņo and its impacts may change over the next ten to hundred years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean-atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El Niņo mechanisms and teleconnections and to predict its evolution on a broad range of timescales, from seasonal to centennial. The ability to simulate El Niņo as an emergent property of these models has largely improved over the last few years. Nevertheless, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niņo indicate current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and anticipate changes in its characteristics. A review of the several factors that contribute to this diversity, with a focus on atmosphere feedbacks, as well as potential means to improve the simulation of El Niņo, is presented.
Thursday, 28 January
9:00am
SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, you must stop at the Visitor Center to obtain a vistor badge. Please allow 10 extra minutes for this procedure. If you are a foreign national coming from outside the NOAA campus, please contact Barbara Herrli (303-497-3876) for information on access requirements.
Past seminars: 1996-2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012