ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Understanding El Niņo in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and challenges

Eric Guilyardi
IPSL/Ocean, Paris France and NCAS Climate, Reading UK


Determining how El Niņo and its impacts may change over the next ten to hundred years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean-atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El Niņo mechanisms and teleconnections and to predict its evolution on a broad range of timescales, from seasonal to centennial. The ability to simulate El Niņo as an emergent property of these models has largely improved over the last few years. Nevertheless, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niņo indicate current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and anticipate changes in its characteristics. A review of the several factors that contribute to this diversity, with a focus on atmosphere feedbacks, as well as potential means to improve the simulation of El Niņo, is presented.

NOAA Skaggs 1D-403
Thursday, 28 January

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