NOAA scientists explore the Arctic during a 2005 mission. CREDIT: Jeremy Potter, NOAA

NOAA Science Challenge Workshop

Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate and Related Impacts
Status and Requirements for Progress

13-15 May 2014
NOAA David Skaggs Research Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Local Hosts: NOAA/ESRL and CU/CIRES
Co-Chairs: Randy Dole (NOAA/ESRL), Fiona Horsfall (NOAA/NWS), David Bromwich (OSU), and Pablo Clemente-Colón (NOAA/STAR/NIC)
Logistics Contact: Rita Lombardi, 303.497.6740

Agenda & Presentations

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

8:00 am Coffee and light breakfast / Registration, AV check-in, logistics
8:30 am Welcome to NOAA ESRL – Sandy MacDonald (NOAA ESRL Director)
8:35 am Workshop Overview and Objectives – Randy Dole (NOAA)
Session 1. The Drivers: US and NOAA Requirements for Advancing Arctic Predictions
8:50 am National Needs for Improved Arctic Weather and Climate Predictions – David Titley (PSU, Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk)
9:05 am A Navy perspective on Current and Future Needs for Arctic Operational Predictions - Mendal Scott Livezey (US Navy)
9:20 am NOAA Imperatives, Drivers and Service Needs – David Kennedy (NOAA)
9:35 am NOAA NWS Arctic Operational Forecasting Perspectives – Ming Ji (NWS/NCEP)
9:50 am Arctic Information and Regional Service Needs" – Aimee Devaris (NWS Regional Director – Alaska Region)
10:05 am Break
Session 2. Scientific Foundations for Improving Predictions
10:30 am Arctic Science for Improving Predictions – John Walsh (University of Alaska, Fairbanks, CIFAR)
10:50 am Arctic-Lower Latitude Linkages: Implications for Weather and Climate Predictions – Judah Cohen (Atmospheric and Environmental Research)
11:10 am Arctic Sea Ice Predictability – Marika Holland (NCAR)
11:30 am Open discussion, with presenters of the first two sessions as panelists
12:00 pm Lunch (on-site in Rm GB-124)
Session 3. Operational Predictions: Status, Challenges and Opportunities for Progress
1:00 pm NOAA – Robert Grumbine (NOAA NCEP)
1:15 pm Navy – Rick Allard (NRL)
1:30 pm National Ice Center and North American Ice Service – Caryn Panowicz
1:45 pm Environment Canada – Hal Ritchie
2:00 pm Open discussion, with presenters as panelists
2:30 pm Break
Breakout group discussions – Key Challenges and Opportunities
3:00 pm Breakout Group Guidance (Dole)
3:15 pm Breakout groups convene in breakout rooms
  • Consider end-to-end capabilities. Take advantage of cross-disciplinary expertise.
  • What are the critical gaps limiting progress?
  • Are there specific high priority problems where near-term progress is feasible?
  • Are there common challenges that cut across several problems that, if addressed, would allow progress on multiple problems?
5:15 pm Reconvene in Plenary – Summary, next steps (Dole)
5:30 pm End of Day 1
6:30 pm Group dinner for those interested (Chautauqua)

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

8:00 am Coffee and light breakfast, AV check-in
8:30 am Day 1 Recap, Day 2 Objectives (Randy Dole)
8:45 am Day 1 Breakout Summaries
10:00 am Break
4. International and National Partnership Opportunities
10:30 am WWRP Polar Prediction Project, YOPP, MOSAiC – Chris Fairall (NOAA)
10:45 am Forecast Evaluation and User-Focused Verification – Barb Brown (NCAR)
11:00 am Earth System Prediction Capability – Dan Eleuterio (ONR)
11:15 am Sea Ice Prediction Network – Julienne Stroeve (NSIDC)
11:30 am Interagency Processes and Mechanisms IARPC and USARC – John Farrell (USARC)
12:00 pm Lunch (on-site in Rm GB124)
Breakout group discussions Day 2 - Requirements for Progress
1:00 pm Breakout group guidance (Dole)
1:15 pm Breakout groups convene in breakout rooms
  • What are actions recommended for NOAA to improve predictions of Arctic weather and climate and Arctic-lower latitude linkages over the next 5-6 years?
  • How can NOAA work together with partners to address these challenges?
3:00 pm Break
3:30 pm Breakout groups reconvene – Summarize/draft key recommendations.
5:30 pm End of Day 2

Thursday, May 15, 2014

8:00 am Coffee and light breakfast, AV check-in
5. Recommendations for NOAA Actions
PLENARY SESSION
8:30 am Breakout Group Summaries
10:15 am Break
10:45 am Open Discussion
11:30 am Initial summary of findings and NOAA response, next steps (Dole)
12:00 pm Meeting Conclusion
Please contact:  Janet Intrieri (303.497.6594) with any questions.