ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Amplification of precipitation extremes with warming.

Caroline Muller
CNRS/ Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France


Simulations of tropical precipitation extremes with current coarse-resolution global climate models are unreliable. Therefore progress on the problem of changing tropical precipitation extremes with warming must rely on either theory, observations, or simulations that resolve the convective-scale processes. In this project, we investigate how precipitation extremes respond to an increase in sea surface temperatures in simulations that resolve the convective-scale processes. A scaling is introduced to investigate the behavior of precipitation extremes, and how it relates to the behavior of thermodynamic and dynamic variables. We also examine the impact of convective organization on our results. It is well known that convection can organize on a wide range of scales. The ubiquity of convective organization above tropical oceans has been pointed out in several observational studies, and it can strongly impact large-scale properties.

Tuesday, Oct 29
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