ESRL Physical Sciences Division Review 2015

Agenda

May 12, 2015

Preliminaries

07:00 Closed Breakfast – Homewood Suites, Boulder Room (OAR Assistant Administrator and Deputy Assistant Administrator with Review Panel)
07:30 Travel to ESRL (Shuttle provided for Review Panel; Other guests should carpool or self-drive)

Welcoming Talks (GC402)

08:15 Welcome, Introduction of Review Panel – Craig McLean (Assistant Administrator, NOAA/OAR)
08:30 NOAA and OAR Research Planning – Steven Fine (Deputy Assistant Administrator, NOAA/OAR)
08:45 ESRL Overview – Alexander MacDonald (Senior Scientist, NOAA/OAR and Director, OAR/ESRL)
09:00 ESRL/PSD Overview – Robert Webb (Director, ESRL/PSD)
09:45 Break and Light Refreshments with Demonstrations (15 min)
10:00 PSD Strategic Priorities and Review Themes – Randall Dole (Senior Scientist, ESRL/PSD)

Theme 1: Observing the Physical System (GC402)

10:15 Overview: Water Cycle – Allen White
10:25 CalWater 2015 – Ryan Spackman
10:40 Linking Aerosols and Precipitation – Jessie Creamean
10:55 Advances from CALWATER2/VAMOS/DYNAMO Campaigns – Chris Fairall
11:10 Role of Gap-Filling Radars to Improve QPE in Complex Terrain – Robert Cifelli
11:25 Measurements of Soil Moisture and Ocean Wind Using GNSS Reflected Signals – Valery Zavorotny
11:40 Summary: Water Cycle – Allen White
11:45 Discussion
12:00 Closed Lunch (Invitation Only): Review Panel with Senior OAR HQ Leadership and PSD Director (60 min – GB124)
01:00 Overview: Arctic – Taneil Uttal
01:10 Unraveling the Secrets of Arctic Clouds – Matthew Shupe
01:25 Understanding Atmospheric Forcing of Arctic Sea Ice Through Surface Energy Fluxes – Ola Persson
01:40 Arctic Observing: Addressing Current Limitations to Advance Scientific Understanding – Gijs de Boer
01:55 Summary: Arctic – Taneil Uttal
02:00 Discussion
02:15 Break and Light Refreshments (15 min)

Theme 2: Understanding the Physical System (GC402)

02:30 Overview: Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics – George Kiladis
02:40 Stable Boundary Layers – Andrey Grachev
02:55 Impacts of Atmospheric Tropical Waves on Weather and Climate in Observations versus Models – Juliana Dias
03:10 Tropical Forecasts and Predictability for Week 3 and Beyond – Matthew Newman
03:25 The Processes Underlying the Pacific Decadal Oscillation – Michael Alexander
03:40 Summary: Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics – George Kiladis
03:45 Discussion
04:00 Break (15 min) and Light Refreshments (15 min)
04:15 Overview: Explaining Extremes to Improve Predictions – Joe Barsugli
04:25 Understanding and Explaining Causes for Trends in Regional Precipitation – Martin Hoerling
04:40 Understanding and Explaining Causes of Weather and Climate Related Extreme Events – Judith Perlwitz
04:55 Linkages between ARs and Orographic Precipitation in the Western U.S. – Mimi Hughes
05:10 Current Effects of Human-Induced Climate Change on California Drought – Linyin Cheng
05:25 Summary: Explaining Extremes to Improve Predictions – Joe Barsugli
05:30 Discussion
05:45 Adjourn
06:00 Review Panel Closed Session (1D–708)
07:00 Closed Dinner (Invitation Only) – Review Panel with OAR and PSD Senior Management

May 13, 2015

Preliminaries

07:00 Breakfast at Hotel
07:45 Travel to ESRL (Shuttle provided for Review Panel; Other guests should carpool or self-drive)

Theme 3: Modeling the Physical System (GC402)

08:15 Overview: Improving Model Processes – Robert Cifelli
08:25 Radiative Forcing in CMIP6 – Robert Pincus
08:40 Evaluation of Microphysics Schemes for Numerical Weather Prediction – Jian–Wen Bao
08:55 Improving Weather and Climate Prediction Models Through the Super–Parameterization Approach – Stefan Tulich
09:10 High Resolution Modeling to Understand Flood Risk and Hail Impacts in Future Climates – Kelly Mahoney
09:25 Summary: Improving Model Processes – Robert Cifelli
09:35 Discussion
09:45 Break and Light Refreshments with Demonstrations Repeated (15 min)
10:00 Overview: Modeling the Climate System – Prashant Sardeshmukh
10:10 The Stochastic Framework for Understanding Climate – Cécile Penland
10:25 Challenges in Modeling Extremes – Prashant Sardeshmukh
10:40 Modeling the Arctic System – Amy Solomon
10:55 20th Century Reanalysis – Gilbert Compo
11:10 Summary: Modeling the Climate System – Prashant Sardeshmukh
11:15 Discussion

Poster Session I: 11:30–12:15 (GC402 and Atrium)

Reviewers and Visitors Only
12:15 Closed Lunch1 (Invitation Only) – Review Panel with Invited PSD Staff (60 min – GB124)
Closed Lunch2 (Invitation Only) – Leadership Across NOAA with PSD Research Team Leads and PSD Management (60 min – GC402)

Poster Session II: 01:15–02:00 (GC402 and Atrium)

Reviewers and Visitors Only

Theme 4: Research to Applications, Operations and Services (GC402)

02:15 Overview: Serving Stakeholders – Laura Bianco
02:25 Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP and WFIP2) – James Wilczak
02:40 Improving Seasonal Forecasts to Help with Drought Planning in California – Klaus Wolter
02:55 Developing Data Tools and Products in Support of Research to Applications – Allen White
03:10 A "Sea to Summit to Sea" Approach to Improve Management of Water Resources – Lynn Johnson
03:25 Summary: Serving Stakeholders – Laura Bianco
03:30 Discussion
03:45 Break and Light Refreshments with Subset of Posters Repeated (15 min)
04:00 Overview: Serving NOAA – Thomas Hamill
04:10 Ensemble Data Assimilation – Jeffrey Whitaker
04:25 Model Uncertainty Parameterization in Ensembles – Philip Pegion
04:40 Ensemble Reforecasts and Post-Processing – Thomas Hamill
04:55 Air–Sea Flux Products – Christopher Fairall
05:10 Summary: Serving NOAA – Thomas Hamill
05:20 Discussion
05:30 Adjourn
05:45 Review Panel Closed Session (1D708)
05:45 NOAA Line Office, OAR and PSD Senior Management Closed Session (3B207)
07:00 Dinner – On Your Own (Optional Reservations for 20 at the Boulder Dushanbe Tea House)

May 14, 2015

Preliminaries

07:00 Breakfast at Hotel
07:45 Travel to ESRL (Shuttle provided for Review Panel; Other guests should carpool or self-drive)

Stakeholder Sessions

08:00 Preparation for concurrent closed sessions with Review Panel
Session 1 (1D708)
08:15 Gary Eilerts (Program Manager, Famine Early Warning Systems Network, USAID) – DC
08:35 Wayne Higgins (Director, Climate Program Office, NOAA Research) – DC
08:55 Levi Brekke (Chief, Research and Development, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) – CO
09:15 John Cortinas (Director, Office of Weather and Air Quality, NOAA Research) – CO
09:35 Michael Anderson (State Climatologist, California Department of Water Resources) – CA
Session 2 (1D403)
08:15 Hendrik Tolman (Director, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA National Weather Service) – DC
08:35 Joel Cline (Program Manager, Wind and Water Power Program, U.S. Department of Energy) – DC
08:55 Von Walden (Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Washington State University) – WA
09:15 Tony Willardson (Executive Director, Western States Water Council) – UT
09:35 Roger Pulwarty (Director, National Integrated Drought Information Service) – CO

Review Panel Summary, Wrap-up and Discussion (1D708)

10:00 OAR and PSD Senior Management with Review Panel

Review Panel Closed Session (1D708)

10:30 Discussion and Report Coordination

Review Panel Preliminary Report-out (1D708)

12:00 OAR and PSD Senior Management with Review Panel
01:00 Adjourn